My current top 16…

[Aike]

Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn

 

[Fancatstik]

Iowa St number two, I think this formula needs adjustment.

 

[BigBlue1992]

Kansas #14? And Purdue just beat Arizona yesterday.

 

[storm1507]

Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn

What variable(s) causes Iowa St. to rank so high in your system?

 

[Aike]

What variable(s) causes Iowa St. to rank so high in your system?

They lock down defensively, and also rebound and shoot the ball fairly well. Also take pretty good care of the ball.

 

[storm1507]

They lock down defensively, and also rebound and shoot the ball fairly well. Also take pretty good care of the ball.

Thanks. I'll know to keep a better watch on them now.

 

[Aike]

Kansas #14? And Purdue just beat Arizona yesterday.

…

 

[Aike]

Iowa St number two, I think this formula needs adjustment.

Neah

 

[Aike]

Thanks. I'll know to keep a better watch on them now.

It’s early. See how they perform once the competition stiffens.

 

[blubo]

Bama 10? they lost yesterday to #8 (ap) creighton. look for dayton to crack top 25 if they take care of busines this coming week.

 

[ukcatz12]

Ranking formulas like this always get more accurate as the season progresses and the dataset it's built on gets bigger. Same thing goes for Kenpom, which relies a lot on the previous season's data at the start and phases it out until it's not considered at all, which happens around the new year I believe.

So for people questioning this ranking that's one reason why.

 

[Aike]

Bama 10? they lost yesterday to #8 (ap) creighton. look for dayton to crack top 25 if they take care of busines this coming week.

These are statistical ratings, not polls. I don’t switch them around every week like Pat Forde.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Bama 10? they lost yesterday to #8 (ap) creighton. look for dayton to crack top 25 if they take care of busines this coming week.

Probably due to most, if not all, of their losses being relatively close games.

 

[Aike]

Ranking formulas like this always get more accurate as the season progresses and the dataset it's built on gets bigger. Same thing goes for Kenpom, which relies a lot on the previous season's data at the start and phases it out until it's not considered at all, which happens around the new year I believe.

So for people questioning this ranking that's one reason why.

People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

They lock down defensively, and also rebound and shoot the ball fairly well. Also take pretty good care of the ball.

What's got Purdue so low?

 

[Aike]

What's got Purdue so low?

I wouldn’t call 8 low, but they tend to model worse with me than they do some other places due to defensive style.

Playing drop coverage they tend to be less disruptive than other top teams, and open themselves up to be upset by any hot shooting team.

 

[gbl97]

Colorado at 12. Neon Deion has them soaring.

 

[Montana81]

Iowa St number two, I think this formula needs adjustment.

It’s not necessarily ranking who the best teams are. It’s an attempt to rank who has the best chance to win the most games in the tourney.

There’s decades of evidence that suggest teams that do specific things exceptionally fare better in March than teams that do a lot of things well. Then you have teams like this years Arizona that’s just doing seemingly everything exceptionally.

It makes sense that in a one and done tourney with shorter prep time for every other game there could be a greater emphasis on specific aspects of the game.

 

[Aike]

It’s not necessarily ranking who the best teams are. It’s an attempt to rank who has the best chance to win the most games in the tourney.

There’s decades of evidence that suggest teams that do specific things exceptionally fare better in March than teams that do a lot of things well. Then you have teams like this years Arizona that’s just doing seemingly everything exceptionally.

It makes sense that in a one and done tourney with shorter prep time for every other game there could be a greater emphasis on specific aspects of the game.

Exactly. We also have 3 months left. All these teams have plenty of time to validate their positions, or fall off.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.

@Aike , don't let the moronic haters get to you. We have a ton of fly-by posters here who don't understand that your ranking system is based on statistics.

 

[UK90]

Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn

Like others, not sure how you rank Purdue so low with wins over Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Alabama, Xavier and Iowa.

Nobody else has nearly as impressive a collection of wins so far.

 

[Skyguyb27]

You forgot IU.











Just kidding

 

[yes_takeaside]

Modeling is not an exact science… but we are 100% sure yours is better than climate models

 

[Aike]

Like others, not sure how you rank Purdue so low with wins over Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Alabama, Xavier and Iowa.

Nobody else has nearly as impressive a collection of wins so far.

Isn’t a ranking

 

[sluggercatfan]

Iowa St number two, I think this formula needs adjustment.

More like thrown in trash.

 

[bowfreak]

Aike has posted this information for how long and people still have no clue what it means.

When I read how do you have so and so ranked so high or low lets me know that for the most part people do not pay attention.

 

[king of cali]

Aike has posted this information for how long and people still have no clue what it means.

When I read how do you have so and so ranked so high or low lets me know that for the most part people do not pay attention.

Even though it was explained multiple times just a few posts above lol.

 

[Fancatstik]

I get it that it's based on statistics but it's the statistics you decide to include. It doesn't appear that the SOS has much merit. Iowa St has only played one ranked team and they lost to them and that was #12 aTm.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Even though it was explained multiple times just a few posts above lol.

I like pretending to be those people just to bust his balls.

BTW this list would have been decent, but you called them UCONN when it's Uconn. You'll get there, though..

 

[Abney2House]

That Texas A&M live +440 smack hit different against Iowa State.

 

[Fox2monk]

People lose their minds over this stuff. We beat Miami by 22 but lost to UNCW. Which team are we?

I finally stopped posting last year because the trolls were over the top.

Guess what they were maddest about? They didn’t think I had Purdue and Bama high enough, and they thought I had UCONN too high. Huh.

Keep posting, I find it interesting. Comparing the actual results to you model is cool.

 

[Fox2monk]

Like others, not sure how you rank Purdue so low with wins over Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Alabama, Xavier and Iowa.

Nobody else has nearly as impressive a collection of wins so far.

It’s not his personal rank, just how the model he makes presents teams so far.

 

[Fox2monk]

I wouldn’t call 8 low, but they tend to model worse with me than they do some other places due to defensive style.

Playing drop coverage they tend to be less disruptive than other top teams, and open themselves up to be upset by any hot shooting team.

They beat Alabama but gave up 19 3’s. I can see how that would shake out in the model.

 

[bucsrule8872]

@Aike , don't let the moronic haters get to you. We have a ton of fly-by posters here who don't understand that your ranking system is based on statistics.

This.

Keep doing what you’re doing Aike. A lot of us love to look at your model.

 

[KAB Cats]

Your model is intended to predict the National Champion based on the entire work of play, correct? In other words, with more game played, the algorithm would be more accurate using historical data as training data?

If this is true, do you have the ability to compare with historical data on the same date? On Dec 17, 2022, I'd assume the projections would look different than the projections on March 1, 2023?

 

[BillyJoeCat-fan]

I like pretending to be those people just to bust his balls.

BTW this list would have been decent, but you called them UCONN when it's Uconn. You'll get there, though..

Well Mr. Ball Buster, it's actually UConn so..............

 

[UK-chulo]

Need Gonzaga in the top 5 so when we beat them we will feel real good.

 

[UK90]

It’s not his personal rank, just how the model he makes presents teams so far.

Yeah, I get that. And it’s not something I care about personally. I’m just curious how an objective methodological model would put the team that seems to have accomplished more than anyone else so far (ie. Purdue) so low.

What objective factors are weighing against them in this model?

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Cats rise a couple spots to number 9…

1. Zona
2. Iowa St
3. UCONN
4. Houston
5. BYU
6. FAU
7. Colorado St
8. Purdue
9. Kentucky Wildcats Basketball
10. Alabama
11. Virginia
12. Colorado
13. Marquette
14. Kansas
15. Tennessee
16. Auburn

I think UConn should be number one by a good margin. They are clearly the best team right now, but I always like your posts about the models, they provide a good viewpoint.

 

[Fox2monk]

Yeah, I get that. And it’s not something I care about personally. I’m just curious how an objective methodological model would put the team that seems to have accomplished more than anyone else so far (ie. Purdue) so low.

What objective factors are weighing against them in this model?

I would think Purdue would be higher as well, I don’t know all the variables though.