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My 5 predictions for next season:

Rhavicc

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Dec 15, 2014
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1. Tyler Ulis will be improve as advertised. We've heard all summer about how far along Ulis has came following the final four, showing glimpses of some Allen Iverson in his game. I feel like we'll see some truth to that. This roster is built to spread the floor and use dribble penetration frequently to get points at the rim, or kick it out for an open 3. I think we'll see Ulis put up quite a few shots in the paint this season, but still be a knockdown 3 point shooter. Very excited to see his game.

2. Alex Poythress will improve his offense significantly. His freshman season, he shot 58% from the floor (and 41% from 3, but only in ~30 shots). Since then, his shooting has dropped. I attribute that to his role continuously changing. He came in, was a good shooter, slasher, and finisher, but an average defender. He seen less minutes in 2014 (played behind Randle), became a more stout defender, and was still a good slasher and finisher at the rim, but his shooting was down (possibly due to poor rhythm?), then there was last season, he played the small forward, and took a lot more mid-range jumpers than he's used to. I think his role changing as much as it has will serve as a tremendous advantage for Poy. I think him learning how to play the 3 to a degree, spending time as a starting 4 at one point, then at another point, coming off the bench as a 4 and more of an energy guy will be a good teaching point to him. I think he'll get back to shooting a 55% FG%, while being an elite defender. He's still probably going to be an average 3 point shooter, but he doesn't put up that many 3 point shots, so it's fine. He'll be very important to this team next season.

3. Charles Matthews could compete for the starting SF spot. When you look at the kid's frame, it's easy to tell that he could get up to 210# this season. I don't believe, not even for a moment, that he's 170#. He looks as if he's around 190 right now. Depending on if UK basketball started using Korem's high performance program, I think he could gain that muscle, and become that much more difficult to stop at the basket. He's an elite slasher and finisher at the rim with both hands, his shot has improved (and Ulis has taken note of such, believes Matthews will be an excellent player), and he's a terrific defender as it is. The development of his body could improve his finishing ability and his defense even further. Obviously Murray will see some run at the 3, but I think Matthews could definitely compete for the starting SF spot.

4. We're going to be very happy with the development of Marcus Lee. The guy is an energy guy that could elevate our defense, and rebounding to different heights. There are few people that are the caliber of athlete that Marcus Lee is. His length, athleticism, gain in muscle, and it being his time to shine will all come to fruition this season. in the 25 minutes or so that he'll see on the court, he will give us a completely different look defensively, and bring an electric energy to the team on both offense and defense. Excited to see him play.

5. A national title will depend on the 3 point shooting of Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray, and Mychal Mulder. These are the 3 guys that we expect to be at least 40% three-point shooters. All can coexist on the court at the same time, and very naturally, as Mulder grew up playing the small forward, Murray has played a significant amount of time at the shooting guard spot, and Ulis has always played the point guard. A lot of speed in this line-up, a lot of guys that do use dribble-penetration in their game, and can pass out to the open man, and a lot of guys that shoot the ball very well. Much like all national championship teams, we're going to need terrific shooters, and these 3 are those guys.
 
Good analysis. This team is going to be a serious title contender.

I think this team will be better than many fans think and I think they will be great early in the season as well as at the end. There is a tremendous amount of talent on this team and it appears that there may be some very good shooters, though there are some who seem to think this is not the case. I believe it will end up being one extremely entertaining teams to watch.
 
My man who mentioned "exciting and entertaining" is spot on.

The floor spacing element of this team could prove to be a lethal combo who our front court's length and athleticism.
 
Hard to imagine three guys shooting 40 or better from 3. I think they'll be fine with just one of them (likely Mulder) over 40 and a couple guys in the mid to upper 30s.

The only reason I disagree is because Ulis and Murray will see a lot of minutes, and they're going to shoot a lot of threes. Mid-thirties is going to be unacceptable for anybody outside of Briscoe (who, even then, I expect him to shoot 37% or so). Ulis has shot above 40% his entire basketball career really. It's a staple in his game. He shot 43% last season, so I'm saying over 40% with a higher volume obviously. Mulder shot 46% in JUCO. He shot something similar in high school (I think like 44%). The JUCO line is just as far back as the NCAA D1 line, and even then, he can stretch the floor further. I expect him to shoot above 40% in a pretty high volume, and be effective for us in many other ways. Could be an elite transition player on both ends.
Murray may have the most difficulty with the 40% mark, but even then, I expect him to at least hit the 39% mark with a high volume. Dude is a solid shooter, but he's not an elite 3 point shooter. What makes him elite is his ability to create for himself all over the floor, and being able to hit contested jumpers. That's huge. It's a guard oriented team with a lot of shooters, and a lot of big guards that could play the 2 or the 3. Not farfetched to think we have 3 players that shoot 40%+ at a high volume.


If predictions 1 through 4 come true, I wouldn't sweat No. 5. It's in the bag.

#1 would almost provide #2 and #4 alone. Ulis has the ability to make a lot of players look very, very good. The ultimate teammate, really, and few would argue with that. I feel like all of these things will happen though, and I feel like it provides a very solid chance for a natty. Having Skal, who I believe is a supreme talent, is going to be a huge plus for us in many ways also, but that's going to be obvious and won't require much of a prediction.
 
What are you actually predicting?

Ulis and Poythress will improve? Most people do year to year.
Matthews COULD compete for the starting SF spot.
We're going to be happy with Lee's development? What does that mean? I was already pretty happy with his development.

I guess to say that the 3 point shooting of 3 guys is going to be important is KIND OF a prediction.

I just don't get what you're going for with most of these. You didn't make any actual predictions. If you're going to make a thread, give me SOMETHING bold.
 
What are you actually predicting?

Ulis and Poythress will improve? Most people do year to year.
Matthews COULD compete for the starting SF spot.
We're going to be happy with Lee's development? What does that mean? I was already pretty happy with his development.

I guess to say that the 3 point shooting of 3 guys is going to be important is KIND OF a prediction.

I just don't get what you're going for with most of these. You didn't make any actual predictions. If you're going to make a thread, give me SOMETHING bold.


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What are you actually predicting?

Ulis and Poythress will improve? Most people do year to year.
Matthews COULD compete for the starting SF spot.
We're going to be happy with Lee's development? What does that mean? I was already pretty happy with his development.

I guess to say that the 3 point shooting of 3 guys is going to be important is KIND OF a prediction.

I just don't get what you're going for with most of these. You didn't make any actual predictions. If you're going to make a thread, give me SOMETHING bold.


Mr.-Potter1.jpg
 
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What are you actually predicting?

Ulis and Poythress will improve? Most people do year to year.
Matthews COULD compete for the starting SF spot.
We're going to be happy with Lee's development? What does that mean? I was already pretty happy with his development.

I guess to say that the 3 point shooting of 3 guys is going to be important is KIND OF a prediction.

I just don't get what you're going for with most of these. You didn't make any actual predictions. If you're going to make a thread, give me SOMETHING bold.

1. Ulis will improve to the level that has been suggested over the summer

2. Poythress will improve his offense, which he hasn't done year-to-year, like you suggest "most people do". He has improved his defense year-to-year though.

3. Matthews, a 4 star, could compete for the starting SF spot over Murray, a 5 star top 10 player, due to his skills.

4. Not everybody has been happy with his development thus-far. Not many people has got to see a whole lot, we've only caught glimpses. That's why I say, I predict people will be happy with his development. People will actually be able to see it, in large doses, and be happy about it, which many were not, previously.

5. I said it will depend on the shooting ability of these three players, for UK to get a natty. I didn't say it would be "kind of, maybe a little, sort of important". I predict, or I estimate in layman's terms, that those 3 players will need to shoot very well for the team to win a title. Me estimating that is a prediction.

I'm typically a very grounded person, so when I say I'm making a prediction, it's going to be very level-headed. Why predict something if it's unlikely to come true? My title did not say "5 bold predictions", I made sure of that, so don't come here expecting 5 bold predictions, and criticizing when you didn't get your 5 bold predictions, because at no point did I say that these predictions were going to be bold.

Is that enough boldness for you in this post? I sure hope so, I would hate for you to leave empty handed.

You really should learn to read the entire message, and not just bits and pieces of it.
 
So on #1 you are predicting something that has already been told to us.

Yeah, he is just doing a ditto there.

And there is no way in hell Murray does not start all season. Same with Briscoe. I think Matthews will be great off the bench, but he will be off the bench all season.
 
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6. UK will make its 5th Final Four in 6 years, and if we lose once there, #4 will shockingly still happen.

#4 will still happen even if UK does win it all.
It ain't called Raftards for nuttin'
 
3-point shooting predictions for rotation players:

Ulis- 40-41%- shoots more, percentage goes down a tad.
Mulder- 39-40%
Murray- 37-38%- will lead in attempts.
Briscoe- 34-35%- shoots better at the end of the season, will jack some ill-advised ones early.
Poythress- 33-34%
Matthews- 32-33%
Labissiere- 30-31%
Lee- NA- doubt he shoots any 3's.
 
3-point shooting predictions for rotation players:

Ulis- 40-41%- shoots more, percentage goes down a tad.
Mulder- 39-40%
Murray- 37-38%- will lead in attempts.
Briscoe- 34-35%- shoots better at the end of the season, will jack some ill-advised ones early.
Poythress- 33-34%
Matthews- 32-33%
Labissiere- 30-31%
Lee- NA- doubt he shoots any 3's.

Willis-36-40%
 
What are you actually predicting?

Ulis and Poythress will improve? Most people do year to year.
Matthews COULD compete for the starting SF spot.
We're going to be happy with Lee's development? What does that mean? I was already pretty happy with his development.

I guess to say that the 3 point shooting of 3 guys is going to be important is KIND OF a prediction.

I just don't get what you're going for with most of these. You didn't make any actual predictions. If you're going to make a thread, give me SOMETHING bold.

old%20lady_zpsglavm5zi.jpg
 
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We're probably going to lose 7-10 games and people will freak out.
I can't see a team being this good and losing more than 7. Most likely losses are Puke, at Kansas, at Vandy, at A&M, and I would think 2-3 more losses at random. So I think 4 to 7 losses for this team and a two seed.
 
I'm just going by what's happened in the past. When we lose most of our contributors, we typically have a bumpy regular season. I don't think it means this team is going to suck, quite the opposite. I just know it's probably going to happen and there will be a decent amount of people freaking out about it.
 
- Lol Ulis has zero AI in his game.

- I've done some homework on Matthews and he surprisingly handles the ball well for a raw offensive guy. His shooting motion is slow so that'll be a probem, but with his size, athleticism + rep as a defensive playmaker, i think its Isaiah Briscoe he'll be putting pressure on. Murray will be great from day-1 so nobody is challenging him for his spot..

- I don't think Lee is good so i obviously don;t agree with his assessment.

- Expecting a hyper efficient, elite defender in Poy as well. He was that for 6 games in the 13-14 tourney run, so its in him. His shot is broke but whatever since he's gonna be at the 4.

- I fully agree with #5.
 
We're probably going to lose 7-10 games and people will freak out.

I can't see a team being this good and losing more than 7. Most likely losses are Puke, at Kansas, at Vandy, at A&M, and I would think 2-3 more losses at random. So I think 4 to 7 losses for this team and a two seed.

Max we will lose will be 6 games.

Wait. Hang on a minute. You guys are thinking we could lose 6, 7, 10 games??? What the hell. We are absolutely stacked. This class isn't going to be a repeat of the Harrisons, Young, Randle, Johnson, and Lee class and underperform and take forever to mesh together and finally start playing well. We're going to dominate again all year long. Now will enter the tourney undefeated? Prolly not, but hell we aint gonna lose no more than 3-4 games or so. I'd say 4 at the max! But only losing 2 wouldn't surprise me. Look at our roster. We'll go in as a 1 seed for sure. Bet on it! We have everything a championship team needs. And I'm getting pissed that some people aren't realizing how bad ass Jamal Murray is. Not you guys in particular but a few non the less. Look here! Murray is a legit top 10 talent. He'll be a top 10 draft pick and will be a beast for us this year. People will be like "Oh hell, this Murray kid is the real deal" But yeah guys. We are going to be a lot better than your thinking. I aint playing, it wouldn't surprise me if we only lose like 2 games all year. But my guess would be 3-4. A lot of people don't realize how bad ass we're gonna be this year and this may piss some off but Murray and Briscoe will be way better than the twins.
 
I just hope we do not lose enough to knock us out of playing in the South Region (Louisville).
 
I do think Lee comes off bench, but... I do think we play 3 guard 2 bigs and Lee is the perfect big to rotate over after our dribble drive guards slash to the bucket for put back slams. I think he sees big minutes as one of our two bigs because he works well in a fazt paste offense.
 
6. UK will make its 5th Final Four in 6 years, and if we lose once there, #4 will shockingly still happen.

I just hope we do not lose enough to knock us out of playing in the South Region (Louisville).

ditto, I really want to watch the cats play, but the south region is likely my only chance financially as I could stay with my grandparents in Lexington for free.
 
I'm just going by what's happened in the past. When we lose most of our contributors, we typically have a bumpy regular season. I don't think it means this team is going to suck, quite the opposite. I just know it's probably going to happen and there will be a decent amount of people freaking out about it.

I see this year more like 2011-2012 when we returned 3 significant players (Jones, Lamb, Miller) and combined them with 4 stellar freshmen (Wiltjer, Davis, Teague, MKG).

This year we return three significant players (Poy, Lee, Ulis) and combine them with a group of potentially stellar freshmen, plus there is the Mulder wildcard, and I think he's a player.
 
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I see this year more like 2011-2012 when we returned 3 significant players (Jones, Lamb, Miller) and combined them with 4 stellar freshmen (Wiltjer, Davis, Teague, MKG).

This year we return three significant players (Poy, Lee, Ulis) and combine them with a group of potentially stellar freshmen, plus there is the Mulder wildcard, and I think he's a player.
Lee and Poythress have yet to prove that they are that significant. I'm comfortable with Poythress being a starter if he doesn't lose a step after the injury, but he's yet to prove he is that much of a difference maker. Lee has very obvious flaws that need to be fixed before he's a big contributor on a good team. Ulis has to prove that he can run the show full time, but I have a little more faith in him stepping up because he's shown flashes of brilliance. We knew that year that we had at least three guys who would be good starters even if the freshman were disappointing. That's not the case this year.
 
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I see this year more like 2011-2012 when we returned 3 significant players (Jones, Lamb, Miller) and combined them with 4 stellar freshmen (Wiltjer, Davis, Teague, MKG).

This year we return three significant players (Poy, Lee, Ulis) and combine them with a group of potentially stellar freshmen, plus there is the Mulder wildcard, and I think he's a player.


I see your point, more like a poor man's 2012 situation however.

Jones, Lamb and Miller all produced tremendously more than Poy and Lee this year.

Can Skal be even close to a transcendent player that Davis was? Can Poy be his Jones?

We have no Miller (glue guy that knows everything with years of experience).

Be interesting and hopefully fun to watch.
 
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