mid-Dec, what will UK record be entering SEC-T?

[JonathanW]

I know we did this at least once before the season started. And many were predicting 18-20 wins (some even less). I think now most have probably upgraded their expectations.

As a Statistician, I can't help but come up with my # predicted wins using estimated probabilities of winning each game.

Colgate 95% (I would have said 99% but we might play it without both PGs)
UL 90%
Ohio St (N) 80%
Brown 99%
Florida 75%
at UGA 65%
at MSU 60%
TAMU 80%
Bama 65%
at Vandy 65%
at UT 35%
Ark 85%
at Ole Miss 60%
USC 95%
UT 65%
at Texas 60%
Vandy 90%
at Bama 35%
at Okl 60%
Auburn 65%
LSU 90%
at Missouri 60%

So, my expected value calculation of wins/losses is 15.74 - 6.26, adding the current 8-1, then rounding that would put us at 24-7.

 

[CELTICAT]

Looking like a 12-1 OOC record if we take of business this week and against Ohio State (which I think exceeds most expectations).

Conference slate looks very tough, but I agree with your 12-6 prediction. So I think 24-7 as well.

I had predicted preseason we’d win 30 games and make the elite 8, and I’m sticking with that.

 

[anonymous_2011]

We got Bama and UT twice but our SEC schedule have been alot worse. Still gonna be tough but we have a decent shot at 1st.

 

[jedwar]

The SEC is brutal this year. Appears to be perhaps the best it's ever been. I think 7 total losses heading into the SEC Tourney. Agree with 24-7. Good for a 2 seed.

 

[Bluegrass79]

You got to play 18 games in the SEC. The winner will probably have five losses at the minimum. It's just too much competition.
So they'll have somewhere between 5 and 8 losses in the SEC.

Assuming they don't lose any more till the sec I'm going to say that they will lose eight games regular season. #2 seed.
Now what really matters is when they lose those games.
Never back to back losses would help a tremendously with keeping you in the top 10. I do think they need to have at least a four or five game win streak somewhere in the conference schedule to stay in the top.
Try like hell to win the first three and hope some of the others lose their first three or 2.

Nobody in the SEC has more than three losses total as we stand right now on December 10th. Amazing but somebody's going to lose alot in the conference. not everybody can go 13-5...
Somebody that has one loss is going to end up with 10 losses or more in the SEC. I'm not sure who it's going to be.
Maybe South Carolina cuz they're the only one with three losses but their coach knows how to play defense in the sec.

 

[JonathanW]

My assumptions above have us even with Alabama, Auburn and UT on a neutral court, slightly better than Florida.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

I’m thinking 26-5 going into SEC-T

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I said 23 and 8 pre season. I'll upgrade to 24 and 7 now. I'm a bit concerned with PG depth but liked what I saw from JR. Sec is too brutal to project any better than 12 and 6 for me.

 

[KAB Cats]

SEC is absolutely brutal. 9 ranked teams. Could have as many as 10 next week. We will take some L's, but so will everyone else.

 

[chroix]

I had us with three losses before the season started. Thinking five to six is realistic. Three is till possible but as tough as the SEC has looked I think we catch two more than I had initially expected.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

I had us with three losses before the season started. Thinking five to six is realistic. Three is till possible but as tough as the SEC has looked I think we catch two more than I had initially expected.

Funny
I thought anyone would’ve upgraded our wins now that we see the potential. You must’ve really had sky high expectations and not be liking what ur seeing as good as you’d hoped.

 

[Chief Paducah]

I think it could be between 8-10 losses. I think we drop a game or two on the road during a mid-week game that we are not expecting. Seems to happen every year. Come out flat and can't get over a hump. I still think an 8-10 loss team in the SEC could snag a 3 seed with the power of the conference.

 

[Blueisbest]

With how tough the SEC is going to be, I feel that we will go 12-6 in conference and still finish in the Top 3. I don't think anyone will have less than 5 losses.

 

[B.B.H.]

Funny
I thought anyone would’ve upgraded our wins now that we see the potential. You must’ve really had sky high expectations and not be liking what ur seeing as good as you’d hoped.

I take it he was becoming more aware of just how good the rest of the conference is but idk

 

[B.B.H.]

I had us with three losses before the season started. Thinking five to six is realistic. Three is till possible but as tough as the SEC has looked I think we catch two more than I had initially expected.

If you lose only three games in the SEC, you are definitely a 1 seed no doubt. I expect more losses than that personally but, boy, I would love for you to be right

 

[KY Long Rifle]

I had us with 8 losses before the season started. I didn’t realize the SEC would be as good as it has turned out to be, but I also didn’t know we would be as good as we are. So, I could buy 24-7, but I’m leaning 23-8. Either result would be a nice record, given the strength of the league, going into the SECT. With a strong showing in the SECT, we will have a great seed in the NCAAT. It’s going to be a fun season.

 

[UK67KU59]

Regular Season: 25-6 (drop only the Clemson game in NC)
Conference Record: 13-5 (no home losses!!)
Top 4 Seed in SEC Tourney
SEC Tourney Finals
Record entering NCAA: 27-7 [solid #2 seed / maybe #1 seed]
Season Record: 32-7
NCAA Final Four

 

[KY Long Rifle]

If you lose only three games in the SEC, you are definitely a 1 seed no doubt. I expect more losses than that personally but, boy, I would love for you to be right

I would love that, too. The bright side to the SEC being at this level though is that losses don’t hurt our seeding as much, as long as there aren’t too many.