MAILBAG: UK football and recruiting topics
From time to time Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland takes questions from Cats Illustrated subscribers on Kentucky football and recruiting topics.
Here's the first round based on questions that were posed early this week.
JTCats: Jager Burton! We need this guy!
What are your thoughts on the recent Crystal Ball picks to OSU and where UK stands?
The recent Burton to OSU buzz is definitely there, but it conflicts with what I heard recently and when I ran it by a couple of folks in Lexington they seemed surprised. I'm waiting for more answers but as of right now I'll admit to being a bit confused. Burton is going to take his official visits and one will be to Kentucky. When he said he wants to make an early commitment so he can help recruit for whatever school he would choose that seemed to bode well for Kentucky. My pick is for UK in the FutureCast and I have not heard anything that would lead me to change that at this point. Having said that, there hasn't been a silent commitment or anything like that.
novalsi: Who's 2021's Justin Rogers, i.e., a top-50 guy we have a fighter's chance of getting?
And since you put the 2020 team in there, any chance you want to throw together a way-too-early two-deep for fun?
Without a question I think you have to look at Michigan prospects Damon Payne and Rayshaun Benny. Both are Rivals100 prospects. Both have been to Kentucky multiple times and have been on UK's radar for a while. Both have some connection(s) to Kentucky.
My very early two-deep for next season would look something like...
QB: Wilson, Smith
RB: Rose, Rodriguez, Smoke
WR: Ali, Epps
WR: Thomas, Hayes
WR: Dailey, Oliver
TE: Rigg, Upshaw
LT: Young, Watkins
RT: Kinnard, Watkins
LG: Horsey, Dotson, Wilson (?)
RG: Fortner, see LG
C: Jackson, Wilson
NT: Bohanna, McCall
DT: Hoskins, Hawkins
DE: Paschal, Looney, Abadi-Fitzgerald
OLB: Wright, Peters
OLB: Watson, Weaver
WILL: Square, Oats
MIKE: Davis, Oats
CB: Echols, Devonshire
CB: Dort, Brown
S: Robinson, Mosely
S: Corker, Mosely
Nickel: Joseph
PK: Ruffolo
P: Duffy
PR: Ali
rmills7: How many games do we absolutely need to win this year to keep recruiting momentum projecting upwards and improving?
I think it's safe to say the class they just put together was largely, not entirely, the result of the 10-win season in 2018. If Kentucky can have another 10-win season, which I'm not sure I will predict but which is entirely possible, then it would probably lead to the same kind of class. But I think the staff has proven by now that they are going to be capable of recruiting pretty well regardless of whether the team wins five games or 10. The range of Rivals rankings for UK classes under Stoops has pretty much been 18-34 and frankly some of the classes lower on that list have turned out better.
Wildcats40: Are any of our players having a notably strong off-season?
Will be able to tell you more about this later. It's very early and there's not a whole lot to report. Guys are hitting the weights but we should start hearing a lot around spring football. Coaches haven't even been around guys very much, having been on the road recruiting a lot lately.
Bryguy: With more and more coaching positions opening, who’s the next to leave in your opinion? But I know each scenario is different.
The two coaches who have popped up most frequently as potential candidates elsewhere over the past couple of years have been Eddie Gran and Vince Marrow. I would guess whoever Michigan State hires would be interested in trying to lure Marrow over there but I am not predicting that happens.
Brad White's stock as a coach has obviously taken off and while you don't hear much about him in terms of media speculation for new jobs, I'm sure coaches behind the scenes know what he's doing.
This doesn't really answer the question, only speaking to some factors that might make a coach desirable.
Wish for Fish: Can we get an update on the guys who redshirted or didn’t get to play? Last year I believe we got a report after bowl practices on the guys who looked promising.
Some of the guys who I have heard good things about include MJ Devonshire, Jalen Geiger, KD McDaniel, Travis Tisdale, Demarcus Harris, Moses Douglass, Taj Dodson, and Tae Crumes, just to name a few. Dodson was getting a lot of playing time early in the season before an injury and that was probably the surprise of the 2019 class, at least early on. I think in the long run the linebackers and defensive backs from the 2019 class will really make a nice impact on the program.
Cody_Murphy30: Do you expect Stoops and staff to start looking more towards Duel Threat QB's? We've had great success in the run game and with duel threat guys like Stephen Johnson, Terry Wilson, and Lynn Bowden the offense seems to really play into Stoops hand being a defensive mind.
Good question and one that arises every so often for a variety of reasons. I believe almost every quarterback coach would love to have a player who can run or throw. That's just where the game is. There aren't a lot of successful immobile quarterbacks out there. Having said that, based on offer trends and who Kentucky has targeted, the staff seems to be going after the best available player. Beau Allen and some of the 2021 quarterbacks on Kentucky's radar have been more pro-style types. But Joey Gatewood is certainly not. I think you will continue to see them recruit best available regardless of style. But increasingly dual-threats are coming to dominate the position and will be more common everywhere.
mjdotson: Can we get one of your post-signing day posts sharing some interesting behind the scenes stories from this most recent class, i.e. the stories you couldn’t share while they were still actively being recruited?
I have to be pretty careful with what I say on some of those but I will put something together in the weeks ahead.
mjdotson: Who are some guys you would put on relative commit watch, meaning guys who we should be aware of who are both considered a UK lean and who are expected to commit to a school fairly early?
When I asked this exact question to a couple of sources recently what I was told was to keep an eye on some of the local guys. By that I would point to players like Jager Burton, Dekel Crowdus, and others. Burton has said he wants to make an early decision but that should be more like the spring or just before the summer with him taking officials. I think Kentucky is putting some pressure on Crowdus to decide early as well. If you look at the last few years under Stoops, they don't get a whole lot of commitments before March so I'm not expecting the floodgates to open right away. My guess is they will bring in another handful of players on official visits on the same one or two weekends like they did last spring, and if everything goes well they will lock up the core of their class then.
College#19: Do you get the sense if UK is going to go hard after Corey Kiner? This seems like a recruiting class in which the Cats need to sign a really good RB.
Absolutely. I think there are five or six running backs that Kentucky is recruiting really hard and Kiner would definitely be one of them.
Ha-Ha Strippen Chix: What would be the O/U you would set for 4 stars or greater in the 2021 recruiting class? Chances the 2021 class could top the 2020 class?
I will probably not predict it to top the '20 class just because a five-star and eight four-stars is a pretty ridiculous haul at Kentucky. It doesn't help that as of right now there are only three four-star players in Kentucky. They will have to land four or five players rated four-stars from Ohio and Michigan, combined, to approach this year's total. That is certainly doable but I would predict less until we start to see it with more consistency. It should be a good class, though.
It's still early enough that the best I can say is, looking at Kentucky's early target and offer boards, it's a comparable amount of talent when put against what they've gotten in recent years.
mackmatt: What should be the realistic expectation for the 2020 football season with all of the talent we have returning? 8-4, 9-3 or 10-2??
Kentucky returns the second-most production in the SEC when you're talking about the full roster, offense and defense, behind only Texas A&M.
When I look at the schedule, my prediction would probably be 9-3 for the regular season.
That is not to say that 7-5 or 10-2 would be outside the realm of possibility. But Kentucky looks better on paper than all four out-of-conference opponents, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Now, could they lose one or two of those games? Absolutely. But between Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn it's not inconceivable that they could go 2-2.
From time to time Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland takes questions from Cats Illustrated subscribers on Kentucky football and recruiting topics.
Here's the first round based on questions that were posed early this week.
JTCats: Jager Burton! We need this guy!
What are your thoughts on the recent Crystal Ball picks to OSU and where UK stands?
The recent Burton to OSU buzz is definitely there, but it conflicts with what I heard recently and when I ran it by a couple of folks in Lexington they seemed surprised. I'm waiting for more answers but as of right now I'll admit to being a bit confused. Burton is going to take his official visits and one will be to Kentucky. When he said he wants to make an early commitment so he can help recruit for whatever school he would choose that seemed to bode well for Kentucky. My pick is for UK in the FutureCast and I have not heard anything that would lead me to change that at this point. Having said that, there hasn't been a silent commitment or anything like that.
novalsi: Who's 2021's Justin Rogers, i.e., a top-50 guy we have a fighter's chance of getting?
And since you put the 2020 team in there, any chance you want to throw together a way-too-early two-deep for fun?
Without a question I think you have to look at Michigan prospects Damon Payne and Rayshaun Benny. Both are Rivals100 prospects. Both have been to Kentucky multiple times and have been on UK's radar for a while. Both have some connection(s) to Kentucky.
My very early two-deep for next season would look something like...
QB: Wilson, Smith
RB: Rose, Rodriguez, Smoke
WR: Ali, Epps
WR: Thomas, Hayes
WR: Dailey, Oliver
TE: Rigg, Upshaw
LT: Young, Watkins
RT: Kinnard, Watkins
LG: Horsey, Dotson, Wilson (?)
RG: Fortner, see LG
C: Jackson, Wilson
NT: Bohanna, McCall
DT: Hoskins, Hawkins
DE: Paschal, Looney, Abadi-Fitzgerald
OLB: Wright, Peters
OLB: Watson, Weaver
WILL: Square, Oats
MIKE: Davis, Oats
CB: Echols, Devonshire
CB: Dort, Brown
S: Robinson, Mosely
S: Corker, Mosely
Nickel: Joseph
PK: Ruffolo
P: Duffy
PR: Ali
rmills7: How many games do we absolutely need to win this year to keep recruiting momentum projecting upwards and improving?
I think it's safe to say the class they just put together was largely, not entirely, the result of the 10-win season in 2018. If Kentucky can have another 10-win season, which I'm not sure I will predict but which is entirely possible, then it would probably lead to the same kind of class. But I think the staff has proven by now that they are going to be capable of recruiting pretty well regardless of whether the team wins five games or 10. The range of Rivals rankings for UK classes under Stoops has pretty much been 18-34 and frankly some of the classes lower on that list have turned out better.
Wildcats40: Are any of our players having a notably strong off-season?
Will be able to tell you more about this later. It's very early and there's not a whole lot to report. Guys are hitting the weights but we should start hearing a lot around spring football. Coaches haven't even been around guys very much, having been on the road recruiting a lot lately.
Bryguy: With more and more coaching positions opening, who’s the next to leave in your opinion? But I know each scenario is different.
The two coaches who have popped up most frequently as potential candidates elsewhere over the past couple of years have been Eddie Gran and Vince Marrow. I would guess whoever Michigan State hires would be interested in trying to lure Marrow over there but I am not predicting that happens.
Brad White's stock as a coach has obviously taken off and while you don't hear much about him in terms of media speculation for new jobs, I'm sure coaches behind the scenes know what he's doing.
This doesn't really answer the question, only speaking to some factors that might make a coach desirable.
Wish for Fish: Can we get an update on the guys who redshirted or didn’t get to play? Last year I believe we got a report after bowl practices on the guys who looked promising.
Some of the guys who I have heard good things about include MJ Devonshire, Jalen Geiger, KD McDaniel, Travis Tisdale, Demarcus Harris, Moses Douglass, Taj Dodson, and Tae Crumes, just to name a few. Dodson was getting a lot of playing time early in the season before an injury and that was probably the surprise of the 2019 class, at least early on. I think in the long run the linebackers and defensive backs from the 2019 class will really make a nice impact on the program.
Cody_Murphy30: Do you expect Stoops and staff to start looking more towards Duel Threat QB's? We've had great success in the run game and with duel threat guys like Stephen Johnson, Terry Wilson, and Lynn Bowden the offense seems to really play into Stoops hand being a defensive mind.
Good question and one that arises every so often for a variety of reasons. I believe almost every quarterback coach would love to have a player who can run or throw. That's just where the game is. There aren't a lot of successful immobile quarterbacks out there. Having said that, based on offer trends and who Kentucky has targeted, the staff seems to be going after the best available player. Beau Allen and some of the 2021 quarterbacks on Kentucky's radar have been more pro-style types. But Joey Gatewood is certainly not. I think you will continue to see them recruit best available regardless of style. But increasingly dual-threats are coming to dominate the position and will be more common everywhere.
mjdotson: Can we get one of your post-signing day posts sharing some interesting behind the scenes stories from this most recent class, i.e. the stories you couldn’t share while they were still actively being recruited?
I have to be pretty careful with what I say on some of those but I will put something together in the weeks ahead.
mjdotson: Who are some guys you would put on relative commit watch, meaning guys who we should be aware of who are both considered a UK lean and who are expected to commit to a school fairly early?
When I asked this exact question to a couple of sources recently what I was told was to keep an eye on some of the local guys. By that I would point to players like Jager Burton, Dekel Crowdus, and others. Burton has said he wants to make an early decision but that should be more like the spring or just before the summer with him taking officials. I think Kentucky is putting some pressure on Crowdus to decide early as well. If you look at the last few years under Stoops, they don't get a whole lot of commitments before March so I'm not expecting the floodgates to open right away. My guess is they will bring in another handful of players on official visits on the same one or two weekends like they did last spring, and if everything goes well they will lock up the core of their class then.
College#19: Do you get the sense if UK is going to go hard after Corey Kiner? This seems like a recruiting class in which the Cats need to sign a really good RB.
Absolutely. I think there are five or six running backs that Kentucky is recruiting really hard and Kiner would definitely be one of them.
Ha-Ha Strippen Chix: What would be the O/U you would set for 4 stars or greater in the 2021 recruiting class? Chances the 2021 class could top the 2020 class?
I will probably not predict it to top the '20 class just because a five-star and eight four-stars is a pretty ridiculous haul at Kentucky. It doesn't help that as of right now there are only three four-star players in Kentucky. They will have to land four or five players rated four-stars from Ohio and Michigan, combined, to approach this year's total. That is certainly doable but I would predict less until we start to see it with more consistency. It should be a good class, though.
It's still early enough that the best I can say is, looking at Kentucky's early target and offer boards, it's a comparable amount of talent when put against what they've gotten in recent years.
mackmatt: What should be the realistic expectation for the 2020 football season with all of the talent we have returning? 8-4, 9-3 or 10-2??
Kentucky returns the second-most production in the SEC when you're talking about the full roster, offense and defense, behind only Texas A&M.
When I look at the schedule, my prediction would probably be 9-3 for the regular season.
That is not to say that 7-5 or 10-2 would be outside the realm of possibility. But Kentucky looks better on paper than all four out-of-conference opponents, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Now, could they lose one or two of those games? Absolutely. But between Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn it's not inconceivable that they could go 2-2.
