Looking at Duke's recent history does it prove that the one and done mentality won't cut it anymore.

[Creed Bratton]

Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I think it says both.

You have to have solid experience around the freshmen to win. Future nba talent does not equate to freshmen n college talent n a one and done ncaa tourney.

We know that all too well.

 

[UK90]

The one and done model died with NIL. It is thoroughly obsolete now that talented older players …and even experienced pros from overseas …have a financial incentive to stay in CBB for a good long time.

 

[MidseasonTweaks]

One and done has been done for awhile now. If you can't win a championship with Williamson or Flagg, you might as well stop trying. I actually hope Duke keeps trying to recruit as many 5 stars as possible knowing they'll flame out in the tourney. I like Pope's approach so far.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

What others said, but also

1. Scheyer isn't that good of a coach
2. If Duke isn't getting the calls that they get at home, it makes it tougher to play through it on a neutral site (see Kansas tournament woes as well)
3. The game is no longer about sheer athleticism and getting to the rack with speed and power. That style died 10 years ago. Now, everyone has to be able to shoot and thats something that takes time, and lends itself to more experienced teams with proven shooters, instead of an unproven 5-star recruit who has used his athleticism to dominate in HS.

 

[jrpross]

Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.

 

[Fox2monk]

Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?

They had a team capable of winning it and probably should have. Winning titles are hard but eventually you stack talent and get them to play like last year it will fall the right way eventually. It’s probably not the safest strategy but if you surround said talent with talented vets in the portal then you have an elite squad.

 

[cathouse]

Many UK fans knew one and done was a losing formula since 2010.

 

[cardsfan53]

To me the big difference in college is college is a single elimination tournament. You can have the better team and get beat because of a bad game or even a bad 5-10 min stretch.

 

[trueblujr2]

Many UK fans knew one and done was a losing formula since 2010.

Well I wouldn't say since 2010, we had a pretty solid run up relying on it until about 2017. I think the Portal and NIL, have changed that landscape and We don't even really have to look at Duke to see it, we can look no further than our own program to see how going the OND route is no longer effective and building a roster of more seasoned and mature players is the way to go now. Obviously you still take a stud or two if you can land them, but don't build your success around them.

 

[billoliver40]

Whether we want to admit it or not, winning the NCAA tourney is normally incredibly difficult and wildly unpredictable. Both Pitino and Izzo have said a Final Four is the true test, and anything can happen after that.
With the transfer portal, NIL and the talent balance in basketball, a finish in the Elite 8 is a pretty major accomplishment.

 

[oldsports_]

Cal taught us that himself. Other than Duke, no one has shyt the bed more than Cal with 5*s

 

[HCaulfield]

The one and done model died with NIL. It is thoroughly obsolete now that talented older players …and even experienced pros from overseas …have a financial incentive to stay in CBB for a good long time.

Yep. Schools are now are able to go after anyone, not just high school McDonalds AAs.

 

[RunninRichie]

The one and done model died with NIL. It is thoroughly obsolete now that talented older players …and even experienced pros from overseas …have a financial incentive to stay in CBB for a good long time.

/thread.

 

[jwphelps]

Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?

Trying to win with mostly freshmen, against 3,4 and 5 year players teams get from the portal is almost impossible. You would need some very transcendent freshmen.

 

[uk78]

Flagg was a phenomenal player who helped Duke win a lot of games. He also twice in crunch time came up short. Turn-over against Kentucky and shot the ball short against Houston. There are rare times you have someone like Anthony Davis, Flagg, or similar Freshman that are truly elite level. So, relying on 5 star Freshman out of High School versus seniors or experienced college players has not been successful unless those one or two special Freshman are surrounded by that experienced talent. Plus now with NIL it isn't even about players staying at your own program.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

No, not at all. I think it proves scheyer can’t hack it in the big moment. Those Duke teams were loaded and great.

 

[bucsrule8872]

The only teams to win it all led by Freshmen OAD talent were UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.

Those teams all had upperclassmen that helped them along, so I am not even sure they should be counted.

Was the era of OAD dominance ever really a thing?

Two titles in roughly 20 years?

Not exactly dominance.

It looks like the OAD mentality never really worked.

 

[BluPappi81]

In today’s NIL/transfer portal era winning a title w a team of mostly spaghetti armed, emotionally fragile freshmen is such a tall order. They are going to run up against a veteran team that will be mentally and physically too much.

 

[gracetoyou]

Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?

Yes! Criticism of Cal's talent & only 1 championship should be applied to Duke as well.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Another thing to consider is unless they pass this 5th year and 6th year juco stuff, college basketball is gonna get a lot younger. The Covid guys and the 24-25 year old players won’t be a common occurrence unless a rule gets passed(which is very well could)

 

[Creed Bratton]

No, not at all. I think it proves scheyer can’t hack it in the big moment. Those Duke teams were loaded and great.

Only 1 of those teams were coached by Scheyer and the other 5 were K's teams though.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Only 1 of those teams were coached by Scheyer and the other 5 were K's teams though.

Yes, but scheyer has gotten them an elite 8 and final 4, so he has had success. The model can work. Duke should have won this years title, but the coaching let them down

 

[flacat22]

Flagg was a phenomenal player who helped Duke win a lot of games. He also twice in crunch time came up short. Turn-over against Kentucky and shot the ball short against Houston. There are rare times you have someone like Anthony Davis, Flagg, or similar Freshman that are truly elite level. So, relying on 5 star Freshman out of High School versus seniors or experienced college players has not been successful unless those one or two special Freshman are surrounded by that experienced talent. Plus now with NIL it isn't even about players staying at your own program.

Three times. Pissed down his leg in a similar late game situation at Clemson. Damn near identical to his UK choke.

 

[CRZ4UK]

Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.

You forgot not getting unfavorable officiating.
If UK runs into Shows, Surmons, Ayers or Ogelsby in the tournament we are gone.
I would have added Pat Adam’s but I don’t think he has a UK bias. He is just a terrible official

 

[52T]

Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?

Cooper seemed to fall Apart crunch time

 

[runt#69]

Lots of great points in this thread. I'll go with talent surrounded by experienced players is the key, for sustained success now. An overreliance on freshman talent in today's era is a recipe for failure.

Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.

that's the best response right there.

Coaching is as important as anything else, really. Let's face it, had Scheyer and his freshman laden team not collectively shat the bed at crunch time when the game was basically already won, dUKe would have won the title, and we would not be having this conversation. Or at least the dynamic would be much different as to if that approach is viable in today's era.

His failure last season underscores the importance of coaching, as much as anything.

In a one and done elimination tournament, anything can happen, so I am not sure if there is ever going to be anything other than bullet points 1,2,3,and 4 that means anything more.

Unless you are Kentucky.

then add bullet point #5 : Officiating.

'nuff said

 

[gbl97]

Duke went to a Final Four with freshmen. If anything, it proves their approach works just fine.

 

[Aike]

Doesn’t prove. Suggests

 

[cbrwalt]

Cal taught us that himself. Other than Duke, no one has shyt the bed more than Cal with 5*s

***I will fix this for you:

No one has been more successful with 5 star freshman than Calipari

Well, at least from 2009-2018

Add up Calipari's NCAA tournament wins and wins against the seed line, no one was even close to what Calipari did

 

[HogFan2012]

You can win with a mixture of both or all of one kind.
You can loose because of a couple of bad matchups, fouls, bad night, the other team was just red hot, ETC on and on...............

 

[Creed Bratton]

Duke went to a Final Four with freshmen. If anything, it proves their approach works just fine.

If just getting to the final four with multiple lottery and draft picks including one who may or may not be able to walk on water is your goal then yes you are right.

 

[Catapult]

Cooper seemed to fall Apart crunch time

IMHO he was a front runner. When they were ahead late, he delivered. But the 4 games they were behind or even tied, he came up short.

 

[Dirk2Bowie]

Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Also
1. Extreme Talent
2. Coaching
3 LUCK

I don't think just because 3 freshmen starters haven't won it recently that it's a impossibility. The other few hundred programs didn't win it either.

 

[Docpath1972]

It’s not just experience. It’s tournament experience with previous deep runs. Our 1998 champs are a perfect example but so were 1978 and 2012. I can’t remember if the 96 team had vets that had at least got to an elite 8 game.

 

[oldsports_]

***I will fix this for you:

No one has been more successful with 5 star freshman than Calipari

Well, at least from 2009-2018

Add up Calipari's NCAA tournament wins and wins against the seed line, no one was even close to what Calipari did

Yay?
1 title with all that talent. Pretty pathetic, just saying.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.

💯

 

[UKBB4Ever]

They were just in the FF.

 

[UK90]

I can’t remember if the 96 team had vets that had at least got to an elite 8 game.

Then you have a poor memory. We reached the Elite 8 just the prior season in 95.

So, yeah, nearly everyone on the roster (minus freshmen) had.

 

[bowfreak]

Whatever your flavor is, the best way to win is to constantly be in the mix. Elite 8s need to be a given with Final 4 runs possible every year. Eventually the ball bounces your way and you win. Duke is in this category. As long as Sampson is at Houston they are in the mix. UCONN is not going anywhere either. UK should be elite and is expected to be with Pope. KU should be and looks lost. UNC should be and they look like they don't have a prayer to get back there with Hubert Davis at the helm.

I am curious who the new players are going to be with NIL. Florida, Bama, Auburn are right there knocking on the door but I feel they are a notch away from being consistently elite. I think they are going to need hard reset years every few years. They will always be good but will have years where they are top 20 at best. UT has Barnes who is a great coach but always loses when it counts because they don't put the ball in the hoop. It remains to be seen what BYU can do with their purse. Arkansas has money but also has Cal. SJU supposedly has NIL and they have Pitino. This could be a consistent recipe for winning.