(Long Post) 12 Years of UK Recruiting/Comparing/Contrasting/Re-Calculating 2021 Class

[The-Hack]

How does our 2021 Class compare, simply taking the numbers given by Rivals to our last 12 Classes, which goes back to Joker’s three classes, all the way back to 2010?

Given that any Class is punished by Rivals rankings if it does not exceed 20 signees (dropping lower rated players out of the math), a good measure is “the average Star rating.”

Interestingly, having run the math, If a school signs 27 players, and the lowest seven are mere 2 Stars, the lowest are still calculated and averaged with the best 20 for the Average Star Rating. Only for the “Class Score” would the bottom 7 drop out of the math. Hence, even in Top 10 Classes, there look like weird numbers. The Top Class score might lead to a lower average Star Rating than the 5th ranked class, when the top ranked school has a kicker or two that are averaged with the high star players, but are excluded from the “class score” calculation.

Keep in mind that transfers do not affect any of this: no service adds them and calculates their value, yet.

Taking Rivals Ave. Star Ratings at face value, 2021’s Class stacks up pretty good.

Here are the last twelve classes ranked only by Ave. Star Value:

(1) 2020, 3.43
(2) 2014, 3.32
(3) 2019, 3.14
(4) 2021, 3.11
(5) 2018, 3.08
(6) 2017, 3.04
(7) 2016, 3.00
(8) 2015, 2.95
(9) 2013, 2.91
(10) 2012, 2.88
(11) 2011, 2.84
(12) 2010, 2.74

So, 2021 ranks 4th of Stoops’ nine Classes, to date, and also 4th in the last twelve in Ave Star Ranking (including Joker’s three Classes).

How ‘bout showing a Four Year Average national Ranking for each season . . . to measure growth/consistency in recruiting and overall talent?

I ran the numbers. Again, going back to the Joker recruiting Class of 2010, Stoops first season averaging 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 was . . . 51st in the nation. Yep, on the tail end of the 65 P5 teams, battling with the bottom of the P5 and the top teams from the G5.

Here are the yearly averages (prior 4 class rankings averaged) since that first Stoops season:

2013: Four Class Average = 51st
2014: Four Class Average = 42nd
2015: Four Class Average = 36th
2016: Four Class Average = 27th
2017: Four Class Average = 27th
2018: Four Class Average = 30th
2019: Four Class Average = 29th
2020: Four Class Average = 27th
2021: Four Class Average = 28th

Notice that by 2016, Stoops 4th Class, he had dug us out of the bottom third of P5 into
the top half, and top quarter of all Division 1 football. 2016 was also the beginning of our 5 season bowl streak.

Notice also the amazing consistency in the four year averages of recruiting classes since 2016: a low of 30th (during his best season, 2018) and a high of 27th, for three seasons, and now in 2021, a 4 year average of 28th.

At a minimum, objectively, we can say that the 2021 Rivals recruiting numbers show Stoops and company are, at worse, “treading water” on the same level as the first year of the five year bowl streak, 2016.

And they’ve been doing it with freakish consistency since 2016.

Now, let’s go beyond “objectivity” and play some numbers games with our 2021 Class that might even show it better than it’s actual rank of 32nd.

The weakest portion of our ‘21 Class sticks out like a sore thumb: Kicker. Wilson Berry is ranked merely a 5.2 Two Star, contributing only 15 points to our Class score. And since we have fewer than 20 signees, his modest score counts.

The last time we had a recruit ranked so poorly was the last Aussie kicker we signed in 2018, Max Duffy, the 2019 Ray Guy award winner. We’ve only had 5 players in program history who have won National Awards, and Max Duffy is one of them.

Claiborne (and many a great Coach) has said kicking is a third of the game. Look over the last three seasons, with three bowl wins, and Duffy punting opponents back into the Stone Ages has been a big part. Rivals almost never give high numbers to either punters or place kickers.

Had we signed three more modestly rated 5.6 Three Stars (below our program average since 2013), our Class score would have excluded Wilson Berry’s 15 points, and added back 225 points (75 apiece) for the 3 Three Star players, for a total Class Score of 1,648 points, good enough for 22nd in the nation.

Had we not signed Wilson Berry our Ave. Star Rating would have jumped to 3.17, good enough for third best in the Stoops era, behind only 2014 and 2020.

Hence the “silly” factor in all of this: Wilson Berry could easily be the most important signee of the 2021 Class. These Aussie’s know why they are here and aren’t shy about saying it. Hence, Max Duffy said in his acceptance speech “This award belongs in Australia,” and Max can say WTF he wants to.

But my point is, moving just a number or two around shifts the outcome pretty significantly.

Why didn’t we sign three of more modestly ranked guys? With transfers, potential transfers, and available players, Stoops and company thinks they can do better than the hypothetical 5.6 players I suggest.

For either 4 or 5 seasons in a row, Stoops and staff have gotten EVERY high school commitment to classes the following August. We lost one JC recruit in that period who did not make it to campus. Most of the teams ranked both ahead and behind us will lose at least one HS player to grades, etc. Our highest ranked class was 2014, 17th, with USCe being one slot higher at 16th. But come August of 2014, eight of USCe’s recruits did not make it to campus.

These rankings should be updated the following August: if the shift of one or two players scores can shift rankings by 5 or 6 slots, with multiple no shows, God only knows the real Class rankings.

Until Stoops came along, during the Mumme/Morris/Brooks and Joker years, we lost at least one HS recruit to grades, or other causes each season. More often than not, the one or two who were no-shows were our top ranked recruits that we took a chance on, in case they could get eligible. Then they went to JUCO. Then (if they made the grades in JUCO,) they usually went to Alabama or Georgia to finish up.

All-in-all, I’m satisfied that this Class keeps us on a Top 20ish level with a good shot at more good Bowl games. If one of our QB’s turned into a Joe Burrow or Johnny Football freak, who knows how far we could go!

Louisville landed 22 recruits with an Ave. Star Ranking of 2.95, a freakishly identical recruiting finish with Stoops’ 2015 Class, Stoops’ 8th best out of his 9 seasons.

 

[Ky grandpa]

Great stuff to think about and should be a read for every BBF...


GBB

 

[point1zero]

What would our ranking be if we added the transfers 5* Wandale Robinson, 4* Dingle and the high 3* LB from MI St?

 

[robo222]

There is no doubt UK is in a better position with regards to football than they have ever been... About the only position that has been at issue is QB... Haven’t got over the hump there... Gran was a victim of his own success/great running game.... So we will see how the new guy does... Should be interesting.

Nice post Hack.... you were up awful late/early

 

[point1zero]

Great write-up by the way!

 

[billoliver40]

Great write up Hack. One of the things I appreciate about this staff is that the recruits are spread over all positions. One of the previous high water Mark's UK had in recruiting was when we signed two high rated quarterbacks in the same class...unfortunately neither worked out.

 

[zannmann]

Great info. But Stoops needs to have those numbers pan out on the field. If you are getting an average of 28th in recruiting, then you should be able to crack the AP top 25.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Great point about the specialist impacting our rating. I definitely didn't think about that

 

[JC-3]

I really, really enjoyed that post! Very nice objective measure of how far stoops has brought the program recruiting wise. I posted last night that the only TRUE talent gap in the SEC is Ala, UGA, ?LSU,?UF, Tam?. Of those teams only ALA and UGA are almost insurmountable from a Talent perspective.

 

[JC-3]

Great info. But Stoops needs to have those numbers pan out on the field. If you are getting an average of 28th in recruiting, then you should be able to crack the AP top 25.

That sounds right on first blush but is totally wrong. We play in the SEC. These teams generally recruit in the top 30 year end and year out. If we played a schedule like ACC, AAC, B10, P12 OR ANY OF THE OTHERS THAT MAYBE TRUE but we do not. We play a schedule that they do not historically. We generally rank 8-12 in the SEC and that's who we play and should be judged by.

 

[gamecockcat]

Any word on the PSU QB transfer?

 

[Deeeefense]

In using star rankings to assess roster strength several things need to be kept in mind:

1. Average star rating values a 5.5 three star the same as a 5.7 three star.
2. Star ranking weights positions all the same so a 4 star quarterback adds the same weight as a 4 star offensive guard. They both count as 1.
3. Class rankings don't include transfers in and out. Kentucky has had a significant net plus with transfers. We seem to lose guys that are low on the depth chart and bring in much higher talented guys continually, while other teams seem to have a penchant for losing a lot of players including some of their best ones.
4. Star rankings don't address roster need. Adding a 5.7 3 star wide receive to a roster with 15 receivers may not have much of an effect, but adding a similar ranked nose tackle to a roster with only one NT could have a major effect.
5. Star rankings cannot address net player development. Analysts can't consider character and work ethics issues nor can they assess how well a player will adjust to a new environment.

I think the view from 30,000 feet is the best indicator of how you are doing with recruiting, and by that I mean your performance on the field. This year has been an anomaly due to the virus but IMO we have gotten progressively better for the most part. Losing 3 QBs in 2019 was tough but we still beat a quality Va Tech team in the post season, something previous teams would likely not have done.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

It would appear that the transfer portal, from a recruiting perspective, will need to be part of Rivals calculation or ranked as a separate entity. It is far too important today, and will be likely so in the future, as well.

In all of that information, the average star calculations over a 4-5 year period (maybe stars should not be averaged, but the actual numerical ranking, instead) seems to demonstrate that the talent on the team next year (assuming attrition is not great or at least equal to the transfers into the program) should be as good as Stoops has seen.

That said, we know that Benny, Jammin, J Allen, Bohanna, Max, Stenberg, and others who excelled did not factor in to these equations favorably, while players who did, never panned out. But, it’s the off season and spring practice is still a bit away.

 

[bballcat4]

Great info. But Stoops needs to have those numbers pan out on the field. If you are getting an average of 28th in recruiting, then you should be able to crack the AP top 25.

I have no doubt Uk has been a top 25 team the last few years. Top 25 in the polls -vs- actual top 25 team are worlds apart because of w/l record and being in the most competitive college football conference. Bowl games are a decent barometer.

I want to continue climbing the SEC east ladder! The bigger picture is that every team in the east probably has better recruiting classes than us except for Vandy. @The-Hack and some others can give more detail about Mo. Here's where I land. UGA and UF will probably always bring in much higher recruiting classes than us. Teams 3-6 are a hodgepodge regardless of rankings. 1-2 key play-makers can make a world of difference. (Ex - Josh Allen) Keep bringing in good recruiting classes and look for a few players to become stars. A break out QB or edge rusher, etc... will push teams over the competition.

I like our staff's history of player development. Let's see if we can develop a QB to break out of the crowd. I'm optimistic!

 

[gamalielkid]

How does our 2021 Class compare, simply taking the numbers given by Rivals to our last 12 Classes, which goes back to Joker’s three classes, all the way back to 2010?

Given that any Class is punished by Rivals rankings if it does not exceed 20 signees (dropping lower rated players out of the math), a good measure is “the average Star rating.”

Interestingly, having run the math, If a school signs 27 players, and the lowest seven are mere 2 Stars, the lowest are still calculated and averaged with the best 20 for the Average Star Rating. Only for the “Class Score” would the bottom 7 drop out of the math. Hence, even in Top 10 Classes, there look like weird numbers. The Top Class score might lead to a lower average Star Rating than the 5th ranked class, when the top ranked school has a kicker or two that are averaged with the high star players, but are excluded from the “class score” calculation.

Keep in mind that transfers do not affect any of this: no service adds them and calculates their value, yet.

Taking Rivals Ave. Star Ratings at face value, 2021’s Class stacks up pretty good.

Here are the last twelve classes ranked only by Ave. Star Value:

(1) 2020, 3.43
(2) 2014, 3.32
(3) 2019, 3.14
(4) 2021, 3.11
(5) 2018, 3.08
(6) 2017, 3.04
(7) 2016, 3.00
(8) 2015, 2.95
(9) 2013, 2.91
(10) 2012, 2.88
(11) 2011, 2.84
(12) 2010, 2.74

So, 2021 ranks 4th of Stoops’ nine Classes, to date, and also 4th in the last twelve in Ave Star Ranking (including Joker’s three Classes).

How ‘bout showing a Four Year Average national Ranking for each season . . . to measure growth/consistency in recruiting and overall talent?

I ran the numbers. Again, going back to the Joker recruiting Class of 2010, Stoops first season averaging 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 was . . . 51st in the nation. Yep, on the tail end of the 65 P5 teams, battling with the bottom of the P5 and the top teams from the G5.

Here are the yearly averages (prior 4 class rankings averaged) since that first Stoops season:

2013: Four Class Average = 51st
2014: Four Class Average = 42nd
2015: Four Class Average = 36th
2016: Four Class Average = 27th
2017: Four Class Average = 27th
2018: Four Class Average = 30th
2019: Four Class Average = 29th
2020: Four Class Average = 27th
2021: Four Class Average = 28th

Notice that by 2016, Stoops 4th Class, he had dug us out of the bottom third of P5 into
the top half, and top quarter of all Division 1 football. 2016 was also the beginning of our 5 season bowl streak.

Notice also the amazing consistency in the four year averages of recruiting classes since 2016: a low of 30th (during his best season, 2018) and a high of 27th, for three seasons, and now in 2021, a 4 year average of 28th.

At a minimum, objectively, we can say that the 2021 Rivals recruiting numbers show Stoops and company are, at worse, “treading water” on the same level as the first year of the five year bowl streak, 2016.

And they’ve been doing it with freakish consistency since 2016.

Now, let’s go beyond “objectivity” and play some numbers games with our 2021 Class that might even show it better than it’s actual rank of 32nd.

The weakest portion of our ‘21 Class sticks out like a sore thumb: Kicker. Wilson Berry is ranked merely a 5.2 Two Star, contributing only 15 points to our Class score. And since we have fewer than 20 signees, his modest score counts.

The last time we had a recruit ranked so poorly was the last Aussie kicker we signed in 2018, Max Duffy, the 2019 Ray Guy award winner. We’ve only had 5 players in program history who have won National Awards, and Max Duffy is one of them.

Claiborne (and many a great Coach) has said kicking is a third of the game. Look over the last three seasons, with three bowl wins, and Duffy punting opponents back into the Stone Ages has been a big part. Rivals almost never give high numbers to either punters or place kickers.

Had we signed three more modestly rated 5.6 Three Stars (below our program average since 2013), our Class score would have excluded Wilson Berry’s 15 points, and added back 225 points (75 apiece) for the 3 Three Star players, for a total Class Score of 1,648 points, good enough for 22nd in the nation.

Had we not signed Wilson Berry our Ave. Star Rating would have jumped to 3.17, good enough for third best in the Stoops era, behind only 2014 and 2020.

Hence the “silly” factor in all of this: Wilson Berry could easily be the most important signee of the 2021 Class. These Aussie’s know why they are here and aren’t shy about saying it. Hence, Max Duffy said in his acceptance speech “This award belongs in Australia,” and Max can say WTF he wants to.

But my point is, moving just a number or two around shifts the outcome pretty significantly.

Why didn’t we sign three of more modestly ranked guys? With transfers, potential transfers, and available players, Stoops and company thinks they can do better than the hypothetical 5.6 players I suggest.

For either 4 or 5 seasons in a row, Stoops and staff have gotten EVERY high school commitment to classes the following August. We lost one JC recruit in that period who did not make it to campus. Most of the teams ranked both ahead and behind us will lose at least one HS player to grades, etc. Our highest ranked class was 2014, 17th, with USCe being one slot higher at 16th. But come August of 2014, eight of USCe’s recruits did not make it to campus.

These rankings should be updated the following August: if the shift of one or two players scores can shift rankings by 5 or 6 slots, with multiple no shows, God only knows the real Class rankings.

Until Stoops came along, during the Mumme/Morris/Brooks and Joker years, we lost at least one HS recruit to grades, or other causes each season. More often than not, the one or two who were no-shows were our top ranked recruits that we took a chance on, in case they could get eligible. Then they went to JUCO. Then (if they made the grades in JUCO,) they usually went to Alabama or Georgia to finish up.

All-in-all, I’m satisfied that this Class keeps us on a Top 20ish level with a good shot at more good Bowl games. If one of our QB’s turned into a Joe Burrow or Johnny Football freak, who knows how far we could go!

Louisville landed 22 recruits with an Ave. Star Ranking of 2.95, a freakishly identical recruiting finish with Stoops’ 2015 Class, Stoops’ 8th best out of his 9 seasons.

Thanks for sharing this info - it really shows how well we have been recruiting. The biggest hurdle UK has, which we are slowly overcoming to some extent - is both the blessing and hardship of being in the SEC. Louisville was able to build a reputation by beating a lot of weaker teams as an example. Good for UofL. For 2021 I have already seen some predictions from some football writers that U of L will be top 25 - really? Well that has happened because of Bobby Petrino years and beating the pulp out of weak competition - including UK during the Joker aftermath - but does anyone who really follows football think U of L is top 25 and UK is not?

The best thing I always like to compare is this - tell me about the top 15 players each year and on the roster each year. Let's compare rosters with others to see how we are really doing. I would like to see Rivals rate rosters using on the top 15 players from each recruiting class (including transfers) and see how everyone ranks for the first 20, the second 20 (40 total) and finally the third twenty (top 60). That is the heart of most teams. Unless you are Alabama, etc. - those groups are the guys who play in the games! That is why I say Kentucky is completely overlooked every year..

We as fans see how many recent losses to Florida and Tennessee in particular should and could have easily been wins.- but from the average fan's perspective they don't see it- they see same old Kentucky. We have seen Kentucky start to shine - and if we had been in almost any other conference - we would be getting votes for top 20 and maybe even an occasional top 10 vote. The SEC proves it every year. National Championships and bowl games in general. It's a tough place to build - but Coach Stoops and his staff have continued to lead our program to the promised land. It may never happen - but we are getting very close to being in the National Championship conversations in the future if this trend continues. I say that for two reasons - we are improving - but almost certainly the playoffs are going to be expanded - at least to 8 and possibly even more. We are inching closer - IMO we were a top 10 team two 3 seasons ago and I see it happening again - and soon!

Go Big Blue!

 

[Deeeefense]

Have to keep climbing the ladder one step at a time. If we can win the East, recruiting takes a major move up.

 

[FtWorthCat]

NC State and Virginia Tech were both top 25 teams, until we beat them.

 

[bthaunert]

Great stuff OP. I also always evaluate where we fit with the 8 teams we play every year. We are never going to recruit with the likes of Bama, LSU, Auburn and TAMU, but they are in the west and we play them only every 6 or 7 years, so I'm never really concerned about them. I want to know how we do against the East, UL and Mississippi State.

A look at 2021 recruiting based on stars:

Georgia - 3.85 average star
Florida - 3.55 average star
UT - 3.33 average star
Miss State - 3.23 average star
Mizzou - 3.18 average star
UK - 3.11 average stars
USC - 3.08 average star
Vandy - 2.96 average star
UL - 2.95 average star

A look at 2020 recruiting based on average stars:

Georgia - 3.96 average star
Florida - 3.72 average star
UT - 3.61 average star
UK - 3.43 average star
USC - 3.25 average star
Miss State - 3.0 average star
Vandy - 2.95 average star
UL - 2.93 average star
Mizzou - 2.89 average star

A look at 2019 recruiting based on average stars:

Georgia - 3.83 average star
Florida - 3.64 average star
UT - 3.61 average star
USC - 3.36 average star
Miss State - 3.33 average star
UK - 3.14 average star
Mizzou - 3.0 average star
Vandy - 2.81 average star
UL - 2.8 average star

A look at 2018 recruiting based on average stars:

Georgia - 4.19 average star
Florida - 3.78 average star
USC - 3.38 average star
Miss State - 3.22 average star
UT - 3.22 average star
UL - 3.13 average star
UK - 3.08 average star
Vandy - 2.9 average star
Mizzou - 2.85 average star

Now, let's look at Jokers last recruiting class and where we were:

Florida - 3.68 average star
Georgia - 3.47 average star
UT - 3.41 average star
USC - 3.24 average star
Vandy - 3.14 average star
Mizzou - 3.11 average star
Miss State - 3.04 average star
UL - 3.0 average star
UK - 2.88 average star

We still have some work to do, but that 2012 class shows you just how bad it was when Stoops took over. It's really important for us to strive to finish right behind UGA, UF and UT, who have those top 3 spots almost all the time. Do that first, see the progression on the field with results and then start to chip away at the big dogs. I have been a Stoops believer from day 1 and I continue to be a Stoops believer.

 

[cat888]

Thanks Good work! If we are looking at wins/loses we also would need to look at the three year leave for NFL factor!! Of course we have had problems with key injuries especially at QB's that has kept us out of the top 25 or better.

 

[YaketySax]

Smaller sample size but along the same lines:

 

[bballcat4]

NC State and Virginia Tech were both top 25 teams, until we beat them.

Don't forget Penn State.

 

[The-Hack]

I think Va. Tech at 8-5 was on the cusp of being ranked, but was not. Penn State and NC State were ranked.

As others have noted, we have a pretty clear recruiting advantage over our 4 NCO, an advantage (over 4 years) over Mizzou and Vandy, near parity with Mississippi State and South Carolina over 4 years, and trail significantly only Florida and Georgia and Tennessee in the East. And UT might take years to straighten the ship.

We play A & M, Bama, Auburn and LSU periodically. But we are on rough parity with Arkansas, and Ole Miss for talent.

Altogether, we should have as much or more “talent” than 8 or 9 of our opponents, annually.

 

[docholiday51]

Great info there, it really breaks down the numbers. I think it is important to consider what Stoops has been able to do with the players and how players have developed over time. We are going to bowl games, we are winning bowl games and we expect to go to bowl games. Those are important things to this program. Stoops is on the cusp of being over .500 as a UK coach, you guys know how long it has been since we had one of those

 

[bballcat4]

And UT might take years to straighten the ship.

I have to give UT credit for keeping a top-20 class in some turbulent waters. It'll be interesting to see how Heupel recruits moving ahead. I'm more curious to see how he can recruit defensive players. He could be a force, or just Leach Pt 2. Those guys seem to make a big splash with big #'s and a few upset wins until someone figures out how to shut/slow them down. Their defenses rarely seem to hold up against a good conference.

 

[The-Hack]

What would our ranking be if we added the transfers 5* Wandale Robinson, 4* Dingle and the high 3* LB from MI St?

A good question that deserves research and a thread of its own.

I noticed last night the TOS has our recent transfers listed (but not averaged into) our 2021 Class. If TOS has this for all teams, a person could come up with an adjusted average.

I don’t feel comfortable just adding Wan’ Dale and the others’ numbers, as to be accurate, all programs’ transfers should be averaged.

Likely take about two/three hours!

Oh, Wan’Dale was a 6.0 Four Star on Rivals, and the 61st ranked player in the US., just shy of 5 Star status.

 

[Joe Le Ducs Forehead]

Our highest ranked class was 2014, 17th, with USCe being one slot higher at 16th. But come August of 2014, eight of USCe’s recruits did not make it to campus.

I'm not sure what the typical numbers for this type of thing have been in the Stoops era, but it is:

1. Certainly one more reason not to get upset about recruiting rankings

2. Yet another pretty incredible testament to this staff's ability to attract young men with talent AND character, knowing how few signees they've lost to academics.


Awesome post as usual, Hack! Being married 25 years, I am aware that my opinions are thoroughly meaningless, but you're one of my favorite posters!

 

[The-Hack]

but you're one of my favorite posters!

Thanks!

 

[Cobb4uk]

Hack, thanks for all the time and work, the info shared is invaluable for many of us football fanatics. I've been waiting, and I 'm not alone, for the type info you shared. Times have sure changed and it looks like It's going to be that way for some time.

 

[Girthang]

Bottom line for UK right now-

We beat UF by 2 scores at the Swamp and finished with the exact same record on the season only to be ranked behind them in the polls.

Polls are about perception (which is very flawed/biased, just like recruiting rankings. If we can keep increasing our average of nationally relevant players each season, the rest will take care of itself. Need a normal year to get back on track though.

 

[TheBlueMax]

How does our 2021 Class compare, simply taking the numbers given by Rivals to our last 12 Classes, which goes back to Joker’s three classes, all the way back to 2010?

Given that any Class is punished by Rivals rankings if it does not exceed 20 signees (dropping lower rated players out of the math), a good measure is “the average Star rating.”

Interestingly, having run the math, If a school signs 27 players, and the lowest seven are mere 2 Stars, the lowest are still calculated and averaged with the best 20 for the Average Star Rating. Only for the “Class Score” would the bottom 7 drop out of the math. Hence, even in Top 10 Classes, there look like weird numbers. The Top Class score might lead to a lower average Star Rating than the 5th ranked class, when the top ranked school has a kicker or two that are averaged with the high star players, but are excluded from the “class score” calculation.

Keep in mind that transfers do not affect any of this: no service adds them and calculates their value, yet.

Taking Rivals Ave. Star Ratings at face value, 2021’s Class stacks up pretty good.

Here are the last twelve classes ranked only by Ave. Star Value:

(1) 2020, 3.43
(2) 2014, 3.32
(3) 2019, 3.14
(4) 2021, 3.11
(5) 2018, 3.08
(6) 2017, 3.04
(7) 2016, 3.00
(8) 2015, 2.95
(9) 2013, 2.91
(10) 2012, 2.88
(11) 2011, 2.84
(12) 2010, 2.74

So, 2021 ranks 4th of Stoops’ nine Classes, to date, and also 4th in the last twelve in Ave Star Ranking (including Joker’s three Classes).

How ‘bout showing a Four Year Average national Ranking for each season . . . to measure growth/consistency in recruiting and overall talent?

I ran the numbers. Again, going back to the Joker recruiting Class of 2010, Stoops first season averaging 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 was . . . 51st in the nation. Yep, on the tail end of the 65 P5 teams, battling with the bottom of the P5 and the top teams from the G5.

Here are the yearly averages (prior 4 class rankings averaged) since that first Stoops season:

2013: Four Class Average = 51st
2014: Four Class Average = 42nd
2015: Four Class Average = 36th
2016: Four Class Average = 27th
2017: Four Class Average = 27th
2018: Four Class Average = 30th
2019: Four Class Average = 29th
2020: Four Class Average = 27th
2021: Four Class Average = 28th

Notice that by 2016, Stoops 4th Class, he had dug us out of the bottom third of P5 into
the top half, and top quarter of all Division 1 football. 2016 was also the beginning of our 5 season bowl streak.

Notice also the amazing consistency in the four year averages of recruiting classes since 2016: a low of 30th (during his best season, 2018) and a high of 27th, for three seasons, and now in 2021, a 4 year average of 28th.

At a minimum, objectively, we can say that the 2021 Rivals recruiting numbers show Stoops and company are, at worse, “treading water” on the same level as the first year of the five year bowl streak, 2016.

And they’ve been doing it with freakish consistency since 2016.

Now, let’s go beyond “objectivity” and play some numbers games with our 2021 Class that might even show it better than it’s actual rank of 32nd.

The weakest portion of our ‘21 Class sticks out like a sore thumb: Kicker. Wilson Berry is ranked merely a 5.2 Two Star, contributing only 15 points to our Class score. And since we have fewer than 20 signees, his modest score counts.

The last time we had a recruit ranked so poorly was the last Aussie kicker we signed in 2018, Max Duffy, the 2019 Ray Guy award winner. We’ve only had 5 players in program history who have won National Awards, and Max Duffy is one of them.

Claiborne (and many a great Coach) has said kicking is a third of the game. Look over the last three seasons, with three bowl wins, and Duffy punting opponents back into the Stone Ages has been a big part. Rivals almost never give high numbers to either punters or place kickers.

Had we signed three more modestly rated 5.6 Three Stars (below our program average since 2013), our Class score would have excluded Wilson Berry’s 15 points, and added back 225 points (75 apiece) for the 3 Three Star players, for a total Class Score of 1,648 points, good enough for 22nd in the nation.

Had we not signed Wilson Berry our Ave. Star Rating would have jumped to 3.17, good enough for third best in the Stoops era, behind only 2014 and 2020.

Hence the “silly” factor in all of this: Wilson Berry could easily be the most important signee of the 2021 Class. These Aussie’s know why they are here and aren’t shy about saying it. Hence, Max Duffy said in his acceptance speech “This award belongs in Australia,” and Max can say WTF he wants to.

But my point is, moving just a number or two around shifts the outcome pretty significantly.

Why didn’t we sign three of more modestly ranked guys? With transfers, potential transfers, and available players, Stoops and company thinks they can do better than the hypothetical 5.6 players I suggest.

For either 4 or 5 seasons in a row, Stoops and staff have gotten EVERY high school commitment to classes the following August. We lost one JC recruit in that period who did not make it to campus. Most of the teams ranked both ahead and behind us will lose at least one HS player to grades, etc. Our highest ranked class was 2014, 17th, with USCe being one slot higher at 16th. But come August of 2014, eight of USCe’s recruits did not make it to campus.

These rankings should be updated the following August: if the shift of one or two players scores can shift rankings by 5 or 6 slots, with multiple no shows, God only knows the real Class rankings.

Until Stoops came along, during the Mumme/Morris/Brooks and Joker years, we lost at least one HS recruit to grades, or other causes each season. More often than not, the one or two who were no-shows were our top ranked recruits that we took a chance on, in case they could get eligible. Then they went to JUCO. Then (if they made the grades in JUCO,) they usually went to Alabama or Georgia to finish up.

All-in-all, I’m satisfied that this Class keeps us on a Top 20ish level with a good shot at more good Bowl games. If one of our QB’s turned into a Joe Burrow or Johnny Football freak, who knows how far we could go!

Louisville landed 22 recruits with an Ave. Star Ranking of 2.95, a freakishly identical recruiting finish with Stoops’ 2015 Class, Stoops’ 8th best out of his 9 seasons.

First-class effort and information here. Great stuff and interesting well-written analysis for us all to understand, so thanks for that work. I'd say that gets you in the starting lineup! Two thumbs way up!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I really, really enjoyed that post! Very nice objective measure of how far stoops has brought the program recruiting wise. I posted last night that the only TRUE talent gap in the SEC is Ala, UGA, ?LSU,?UF, Tam?. Of those teams only ALA and UGA are almost insurmountable from a Talent perspective.

That isnt true. UGA recruits high school very well, top 2-3 the last 5 years. While UF doesnt recruit high near as well, no one works the transfer portal better than UF. This cycle they got a 5* RB from Clemson and a 5* receiver from LSU. Last year they brought in a multi year starting OT from MsSt, a 5* WR from and a 5* DL from UGA. The prior year they brought in the DL from Louisville, 5* WR Grimes from OSU and high 4* WR from OM.

That's an awful lot of their production on both sides of the ball from transfers, it doesnt show up in th he rankings and I dont know for a fact. But I doubt no one is getting that much production consistently from transfers.

 

[point1zero]

A good question that deserves research and a thread of its own.

Oh, Wan’Dale was a 6.0 Four Star on Rivals, and the 61st ranked player in the US., just shy of 5 Star status.
[/QUOTE]

Guess I meant Wan’Dale is now a proven top-shelf talent and if he was presently re-rated he’d be like (or better than) a 5 star.

 

[point1zero]

A good question that deserves research and a thread of its own.

I noticed last night the TOS has our recent transfers listed (but not averaged into) our 2021 Class. If TOS has this for all teams, a person could come up with an adjusted average.

I don’t feel comfortable just adding Wan’ Dale and the others’ numbers, as to be accurate, all programs’ transfers should be averaged.

Likely take about two/three hours!

Oh, Wan’Dale was a 6.0 Four Star on Rivals, and the 61st ranked player in the US., just shy of 5 Star status.

Guess I meant Wan’Dale is now a proven top-shelf talent and if he was presently re-rated he’d be like (or better than) a 5 star.

 

[Soupbean]

I have no doubt Uk has been a top 25 team the last few years. Top 25 in the polls -vs- actual top 25 team are worlds apart because of w/l record and being in the most competitive college football conference. Bowl games are a decent barometer.

I want to continue climbing the SEC east ladder! The bigger picture is that every team in the east probably has better recruiting classes than us except for Vandy. @The-Hack and some others can give more detail about Mo. Here's where I land. UGA and UF will probably always bring in much higher recruiting classes than us. Teams 3-6 are a hodgepodge regardless of rankings. 1-2 key play-makers can make a world of difference. (Ex - Josh Allen) Keep bringing in good recruiting classes and look for a few players to become stars. A break out QB or edge rusher, etc... will push teams over the competition.

I like our staff's history of player development. Let's see if we can develop a QB to break out of the crowd. I'm optimistic!

Good points and we are climbing the SEC ladder and have been slowly. The points ranking doesn’t equate to the level weve achieved in the floor or in recruiting. If we’re 12th we’re still hanging on to the same rung in that ladder as about 8 others