Let’s Play a Game

[Big_Blue_1018]

Right now Kentucky is 27-17 and 11-13 in conference play. They have 8 games and at least one in the SEC tournament left. Let’s for the sake of argument, they beat Morehead State and Tennessee Tech. That puts them at 29-17. They win 2 out of 3 against South Carolina. That’s 31-18. 13-14 in league play. Kentucky then loses the series to Vandy two games to one. That makes them 32-20. 14-16 in conference play. At this point, do they make the NCAA based purely on record alone. Forget the other teams for a moment. At 14-16, does the SEC tourney really matter, just for getting in the NCAA, or do they need to win a couple of games in Hoover. Thoughts?

 

[cats1068]

Right now Kentucky is 27-17 and 11-13 in conference play. They have 8 games and at least one in the SEC tournament left. Let’s for the sake of argument, they beat Morehead State and Tennessee Tech. That puts them at 29-17. They win 2 out of 3 against South Carolina. That’s 31-18. 13-14 in league play. Kentucky then loses the series to Vandy two games to one. That makes them 32-20. 14-16 in conference play. At this point, do they make the NCAA based purely on record alone. Forget the other teams for a moment. At 14-16, does the SEC tourney really matter, just for getting in the NCAA, or do they need to win a couple of games in Hoover. Thoughts?

The “unofficial SEC” dub count is 14 to make the NCAA tournament. That’s why a 2/3 vs the 🐊 and the Gamechickens was imperative. Not making the NCAA tournament this year will be 3/4 eligible years that UK didn’t make the tournament I like Minge but that’s inexcusable.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

The “unofficial SEC” dub count is 14 to make the NCAA tournament. That’s why a 2/3 vs the 🐊 and the Gamechickens was imperative. Not making the NCAA tournament this year will be 3/4 eligible years that UK didn’t make the tournament I like Minge but that’s inexcusable.

I thought it was interesting the graphic that was put up several times in the Florida series. 13 conference wins only gets in the tournament 13% of the time. While 14 was somewhere around 40%.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Right now Kentucky is 27-17 and 11-13 in conference play. They have 8 games and at least one in the SEC tournament left. Let’s for the sake of argument, they beat Morehead State and Tennessee Tech. That puts them at 29-17. They win 2 out of 3 against South Carolina. That’s 31-18. 13-14 in league play. Kentucky then loses the series to Vandy two games to one. That makes them 32-20. 14-16 in conference play. At this point, do they make the NCAA based purely on record alone. Forget the other teams for a moment. At 14-16, does the SEC tourney really matter, just for getting in the NCAA, or do they need to win a couple of games in Hoover. Thoughts?

Nice game, 90% scenario is ...1/2 vs SC...0-3 vs Vandy. May win both OOC games , but would not be shocked to seem go 1-1.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Nice game, 90% scenario is ...1/2 vs SC...0-3 vs Vandy. May win both OOC games , but would not be shocked to seem go 1-1.

I still feel like Kentucky can get one game from Vandy. I just feel like Vandy will rest most of its pitching for the SEC tourney.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I still feel like Kentucky can get one game from Vandy. I just feel like Vandy will rest most of its pitching for the SEC tourney.

May depend on if Vandy can win the SEC regular season, or if they even care to. They got rained out this past weekend, so they are a half game behind UT and Arky

 

[sluggercatfan]

May depend on if Vandy can win the SEC regular season, or if they even care to. They got rained out this past weekend, so they are a half game behind UT and Arky

What? Three years ago I think, filthy orange sucked😤😤👎🏾

 

[SeanCain]

Nice game, 90% scenario is ...1/2 vs SC...0-3 vs Vandy. May win both OOC games , but would not be shocked to seem go 1-1.

Game tonight against Morehead has been canceled due to covid on their side.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Game tonight against Morehead has been canceled due to covid on their side.

Might not be a bad thing given we had several pitchers unavailable this past weekend. Might as well ensure that we get healthy.

 

[SeanCain]

Might not be a bad thing given we had several pitchers unavailable this past weekend. Might as well ensure that we get healthy.

I wasn’t aware of that. What was the issue?

 

[Comebakatz3]

I wasn’t aware of that. What was the issue?

No clue. Headrick mentioned on the radio a few times that several arms weren't available, but he didn't say the reason for it. I think it was some of our older and more experienced guys and probably why we didn't see Hunter Rigsby or Holt Jones.

 

[SeanCain]

No clue. Headrick mentioned on the radio a few times that several arms weren't available, but he didn't say the reason for it. I think it was some of our older and more experienced guys and probably why we didn't see Hunter Rigsby or Holt Jones.

Looks like Mingione has done enough to keep his job. I’m not sure Mitch could find anyone better anyway.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Looks like Mingione has done enough to keep his job. I’m not sure Mitch could find anyone better anyway.

We will see what happens. Here is the deal... UK loses a whole lot of players after this year...

Collett
Rhodes
Anu
Lewis
Schultz
Kessler
Shelby

Ramsey
Harney
Harper
Hazelwood
Jones
Kammin
Lockhart


All these guys are most assuredly gone. So, that is 6 of 9 bats, both Saturday starters, and best reliever.

Then you have these guys who can leave because they are old enough:

Hill
Estep
Harmon
Plastiak
Rubalcaba
Liebert
Bryan

Cottongame
Degen
Marsh
Rigsby
Daniels

Then you have the possibility of some others, even these, transferring and not having to sit out.

So, put another way:

UK has used 16 fielders/hitters in 2020. 13 of those could choose to leave. I think it is likely that UK loses at least half of the fielders/hitters they used in 2020. So, you could see Church, Ritter, Rubalcaba, Plastiak, Harmon, Estep, Liebert, and Grace back. This leaves us with:

C: Rubalcaba/Liebert
1b: Harmon
2b: Estep/Grace
3b: Church/Plastiak
SS: Ritter
OF:
OF:
OF:
DH:

Have to fill those holes and left on our roster we have Burkes (c), Hicks (inf), Hord (c), King (of), McCarthy (utl), Bryan (of). None of these guys have played a second of baseball for UK. So, you either have to plug and play these guys or you have to rely on the freshmen/JUCO guys coming in.

The returning players are hitting just .207 in league play. Granted, most of them do not have a ton of at bats, but the point there is they have to make massive strides.

Pitching wise, we return Stupp and Lee, but have to replace Saturday. We lose over 80 innings of work out of about 206. So, we have to have some people step up and take up bigger roles and then we largely use Freshmen and JUCO to replace them. UK seems to lately have a good chunk of players that are here as freshmen, but not as sophomores. For instance, on the 2020 roster we had 15 freshmen or redshirt freshmen. Of those, we lost 8 of them, several of which were pitchers. So, we have a fairly small sophomore class this year (and junior class next year) because we couldn't retain these freshmen. That isn't uncommon for this staff. I think we had 9 in 2019 that were freshmen, or redshirt freshmen, that are no longer on the team.

Point of all this is that the roster isn't exactly all that well balanced and if we lose a large chunk of these players, I think it becomes much harder for Barnhart to feel good about the future and to give Mingione another chance. Interestingly, we were supposed to be great at hitting this year and poor at pitching. That didn't pan out that well, but next year we should be better and more experienced at pitching, but the hitting could be real real bad.

 

[enjyretirement2020]

On the first list, do some of these players have a covid year, so they could return?

Collett
Rhodes
Anu
Lewis
Schultz
Kessler
Shelby

Ramsey
Harney
Harper
Hazelwood
Jones
Kammin
Lockhart

 

[SeanCain]

On the first list, do some of these players have a covid year, so they could return?

Collett
Rhodes
Anu
Lewis
Schultz
Kessler
Shelby

Ramsey
Harney
Harper
Hazelwood
Jones
Kammin
Lockhart

I know Rhodes and Schultz are both juniors but will likely go pro. Schultz could possibly be back if his draft options are poor but doubt that.

 

[SeanCain]

We will see what happens. Here is the deal... UK loses a whole lot of players after this year...

Collett
Rhodes
Anu
Lewis
Schultz
Kessler
Shelby

Ramsey
Harney
Harper
Hazelwood
Jones
Kammin
Lockhart


All these guys are most assuredly gone. So, that is 6 of 9 bats, both Saturday starters, and best reliever.

Then you have these guys who can leave because they are old enough:

Hill
Estep
Harmon
Plastiak
Rubalcaba
Liebert
Bryan

Cottongame
Degen
Marsh
Rigsby
Daniels

Then you have the possibility of some others, even these, transferring and not having to sit out.

So, put another way:

UK has used 16 fielders/hitters in 2020. 13 of those could choose to leave. I think it is likely that UK loses at least half of the fielders/hitters they used in 2020. So, you could see Church, Ritter, Rubalcaba, Plastiak, Harmon, Estep, Liebert, and Grace back. This leaves us with:

C: Rubalcaba/Liebert
1b: Harmon
2b: Estep/Grace
3b: Church/Plastiak
SS: Ritter
OF:
OF:
OF:
DH:

Have to fill those holes and left on our roster we have Burkes (c), Hicks (inf), Hord (c), King (of), McCarthy (utl), Bryan (of). None of these guys have played a second of baseball for UK. So, you either have to plug and play these guys or you have to rely on the freshmen/JUCO guys coming in.

The returning players are hitting just .207 in league play. Granted, most of them do not have a ton of at bats, but the point there is they have to make massive strides.

Pitching wise, we return Stupp and Lee, but have to replace Saturday. We lose over 80 innings of work out of about 206. So, we have to have some people step up and take up bigger roles and then we largely use Freshmen and JUCO to replace them. UK seems to lately have a good chunk of players that are here as freshmen, but not as sophomores. For instance, on the 2020 roster we had 15 freshmen or redshirt freshmen. Of those, we lost 8 of them, several of which were pitchers. So, we have a fairly small sophomore class this year (and junior class next year) because we couldn't retain these freshmen. That isn't uncommon for this staff. I think we had 9 in 2019 that were freshmen, or redshirt freshmen, that are no longer on the team.

Point of all this is that the roster isn't exactly all that well balanced and if we lose a large chunk of these players, I think it becomes much harder for Barnhart to feel good about the future and to give Mingione another chance. Interestingly, we were supposed to be great at hitting this year and poor at pitching. That didn't pan out that well, but next year we should be better and more experienced at pitching, but the hitting could be real real bad.

This is an outstanding breakdown. I really enjoy your stuff. You’re right about losing a ton after this year. Recruiting has been poor over the past couple years, especially on the pitching side. No reason to think it’s going to be better this year. Next year could be a disaster if all those kids leave.

I’m not sure UK’s situation has improved enough for Mitch to be able to get a solid candidate to replace Mingione. The facilities upgrade could be enough for a selling point. Mitch might have to pay a little more also.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I’m not sure UK’s situation has improved enough for Mitch to be able to get a solid candidate to replace Mingione. The facilities upgrade could be enough for a selling point. Mitch might have to pay a little more also.

That kind of just depends on the way he goes. Look at UT... UT has some tradition at their school, but it pales in comparison to most of the SEC. They brought in a really good hire in Vitello. He was unproven after being an assistant at Missouri, TCU, and Arkansas, and UT gave him a chance to be head coach and he's knocked it out of the park. So, UK could go that route again and try to find another Vitello... doing so could land them on another Mingione, but it's one of those things you try for and see what happens.

They could go for a home run and try to hire someone away. Again, we can look to UT for this... UT hired a guy that went to the CWS twice with two different programs. I think everyone thought he was a home run hire. He flopped. Absolutely tits up horrible hire for UT. So, even if UK hires what could be a sure thing, they could struggle here for whatever reason.

I don't think anything really holds us back from being able to hire the right person... it's just a matter of finding them.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Start of the weekend I was hoping for a realistic path the 14 wins in conference play. There’s a very good chance UK doesn’t get to 12 wins.

 

[Jim_Cornette]

This is an outstanding breakdown. I really enjoy your stuff. You’re right about losing a ton after this year. Recruiting has been poor over the past couple years, especially on the pitching side. No reason to think it’s going to be better this year. Next year could be a disaster if all those kids leave.

I’m not sure UK’s situation has improved enough for Mitch to be able to get a solid candidate to replace Mingione. The facilities upgrade could be enough for a selling point. Mitch might have to pay a little more also.

Mingiones shoes are the perfect shoes to try and fill. He is an embarrassment. Too much fluff with his ego “ Minges Motivations”. His team would’ve got smoked in the SEC last season too . They were swept at home by UNC Wilmington or one of those UNC teams from a tiny conferance .. swept ! At home ! Prior to SEC starting .. his job was saved by Covid

 

[sluggercatfan]

That kind of just depends on the way he goes. Look at UT... UT has some tradition at their school, but it pales in comparison to most of the SEC. They brought in a really good hire in Vitello. He was unproven after being an assistant at Missouri, TCU, and Arkansas, and UT gave him a chance to be head coach and he's knocked it out of the park. So, UK could go that route again and try to find another Vitello... doing so could land them on another Mingione, but it's one of those things you try for and see what happens.

They could go for a home run and try to hire someone away. Again, we can look to UT for this... UT hired a guy that went to the CWS twice with two different programs. I think everyone thought he was a home run hire. He flopped. Absolutely tits up horrible hire for UT. So, even if UK hires what could be a sure thing, they could struggle here for whatever reason.

I don't think anything really holds us back from being able to hire the right person... it's just a matter of finding them.

Don't know what it would take...but, Roger Williams.

 

[SeanCain]

Mingiones shoes are the perfect shoes to try and fill. He is an embarrassment. Too much fluff with his ego “ Minges Motivations”. His team would’ve got smoked in the SEC last season too . They were swept at home by UNC Wilmington or one of those UNC teams from a tiny conferance .. swept ! At home ! Prior to SEC starting .. his job was saved by Covid

I agree 100% about covid saving his job. We would have been horrible last year and have the potential to be horrible next year.

 

[SeanCain]

Don't know what it would take...but, Roger Williams.

Slugger this may be the first time I’ll disagree with you. I would go after Michigan’s coach first and if we strike out I would go after the East Carolina guy. Both proven winners. I really like UL’s pitching coach but my concern is no head coach experience. Either way none of these could work out either.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I agree 100% about covid saving his job. We would have been horrible last year and have the potential to be horrible next year.

I think that is without a doubt. We would have had some monster struggles pitching. Ramsey was going to be our Friday guy. Love Ramsey's fight, but he just hasn't put it all together and shown that he can be a weekend starter. Marsh was the Sunday guy (IIRC) and his trajectory has sadly been similar to Ramsey's.

Add to that, I don't think we would have hit anywhere near as well last year as we have this year and things are even worse. Things probably would have gone south extremely quickly in league play. I think you also had some teams like Missouri who were better last year than this year, so I think the league would have been even tougher.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

So, right now Kentucky is 11th in the total conference standings. If the SEC tourney was to start today, they would play Ole Miss in the first game. Yikes.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Slugger this may be the first time I’ll disagree with you. I would go after Michigan’s coach first and if we strike out I would go after the East Carolina guy. Both proven winners. I really like UL’s pitching coach but my concern is no head coach experience. Either way none of these could work out either.

I would approve of both those choices, but remember Williams is 52 and has done a fantastic job of building pitching staffs there and has mentored under arguably the best HC in the country. All 3 would be a serious upgrade from what we have presently. He is worth a Google search. Title of pitching/asst.HC and as of 2017 salary after 15 years there is listed as $217 K.

 

[sluggercatfan]

So, right now Kentucky is 11th in the total conference standings. If the SEC tourney was to start today, they would play Ole Miss in the first game. Yikes.

Like I said last week 0-7 to finish league play.

 

[SeanCain]

Like I said last week 0-7 to finish league play.

Certainly looks that way. I seriously doubt they beat Vandy once. Something changed after that Saturday Florida game. I’m sure some insiders know but can’t share right now. If we get beat tonight we’re done for the year. The season is really ending on a sour note.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Certainly looks that way. I seriously doubt they beat Vandy once. Something changed after that Saturday Florida game. I’m sure some insiders know but can’t share right now. If we get beat tonight we’re done for the year. The season is really ending on a sour note.

NM sat back and watched Fla's punk coach and team belittle them and walk on! B3N after the game. Disgraceful!

 

[SeanCain]

I would approve of both those choices, but remember Williams is 52 and has done a fantastic job of building pitching staffs there and has mentored under arguably the best HC in the country. All 3 would be a serious upgrade from what we have presently. He is worth a Google search. Title of pitching/asst.HC and as of 2017 salary after 15 years there is listed as $217 K.

I like him, I just like the other two I mentioned more. I would certainly take UL’s head guy in a heartbeat. Even if he said he would come, Mitch wouldn’t pay him what he currently makes at UL.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Certainly looks that way. I seriously doubt they beat Vandy once. Something changed after that Saturday Florida game. I’m sure some insiders know but can’t share right now. If we get beat tonight we’re done for the year. The season is really ending on a sour note.

Same as every year since 2017. Think it's worse than when he took over.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I like him, I just like the other two I mentioned more. I would certainly take UL’s head guy in a heartbeat. Even if he said he would come, Mitch wouldn’t pay him what he currently makes at UL.

Like I said i would take any of the 3 we're talking about.

 

[enjyretirement2020]

NM sat back and watched Fla's punk coach and team belittle them and walk on! B3N after the game. Disgraceful!

At the time we stood in the stands and had no clue what was happening. Our team was fired up. Hill and it looked like Strickland were about ready to explode only while the coaches & umpires held them back. Emotions were definitely high. You just don't celebrate on the opposing teams mound. I'm assuming something was said but don't know.

Came back the next day only to hear one of their players also spat on the mound while raking his foot through the B3N tribute.

 

[SeanCain]

Same as every year since 2017. Think it's worse than when he took over.

Seems to be about the same (losing either way) but previous staff recruited better and current staff has a brand new park as a selling point.

 

[SeanCain]

At the time we stood in the stands and had no clue what was happening. Our team was fired up. Hill and it looked like Strickland were about ready to explode only while the coaches & umpires held them back. Emotions were definitely high. You just don't celebrate on the opposing teams mound. I'm assuming something was said but don't know.

Came back the next day only to hear one of their players also spat on the mound while raking his foot through the B3N tribute.

I wouldn’t doubt it from Florida.

 

[Jim_Cornette]

At the time we stood in the stands and had no clue what was happening. Our team was fired up. Hill and it looked like Strickland were about ready to explode only while the coaches & umpires held them back. Emotions were definitely high. You just don't celebrate on the opposing teams mound. I'm assuming something was said but don't know.

Came back the next day only to hear one of their players also spat on the mound while raking his foot through the B3N tribute.

NM himself treated Ben poorly When he was here anyway. So therefore it’s no surprise NM Didn’t defend Ben. He always waxes Religious philosophic over insignificant things then notice his delayed and oddly Reserved ( written by someone else ) statement about Ben.

 

[Comebakatz3]

NM himself treated Ben poorly When he was here anyway. So therefore it’s no surprise NM Didn’t defend Ben. He always waxes Religious philosophic over insignificant things then notice his delayed and oddly Reserved ( written by someone else ) statement about Ben.

You're touching on a topic that I admittedly know little about, but I have heard enough to know that your take on the topic seems to be fairly widely held.

 

[SeanCain]

NM himself treated Ben poorly When he was here anyway. So therefore it’s no surprise NM Didn’t defend Ben. He always waxes Religious philosophic over insignificant things then notice his delayed and oddly Reserved ( written by someone else ) statement about Ben.

I keep hearing these stories about players being treated poorly. I’ll tell you this, if these stories are all true and we keep Mingione another year that tells you the type of person Mitch is.