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Kentucky v. Louisville (Stat Comp)

Comebakatz3

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So, I decided to try to go back and look at the Batting Average and Earned Run Average of Louisville and Kentucky since 2007. 2007 marked the first year McDonnell was at Louisville, and was around the time UK was also becoming more prominent. These are the national rankings for both teams. Here are the numbers:

ERA
2007: 5 89 CWS
2008: 37 7 NCAA
2009: 22 126
2010: 11 131
2011: 21 162
2012: 66 46 NCAA
2013: 5 59 CWS
2014: 20 135 CWS NCAA
2015: 7 127
2016: 5 78
2017: 3 52 CWS Super
2018: 27 208
2019: 19 159 CWS

Batting Average
2007:
34 16
2008: 51 41
2009: 128 158
2010: 92 158
2011: 269 52
2012: 41 46
2013: 58 238
2014: 54 16
2015: 137 69
2016: 6 164
2017: 68 12
2018: 31 29
2019: 27 229

So, one point to note is that during Henderson's time at UK, our average ranking for ERA was 96th in the country. Clearly, he was not the pitching guru that people claimed. During that same time, Williams had Louisville with an average ranking of 20th.

You can see some interesting things about this, and it somewhat tells you a story about how we did overall. For instance, if you look at 2013, our pitching was pretty solid, but our hitting was so poor that it explains why we went 30-25. Louisville only had one year that they failed to make the NCAA tournament (2011) and in which they failed to win at least 40 games.


This is depressing.
 
Sorry that the numbers all scrunched up. When I typed it I put some big gaps between them, but apparently that didn't work after I hit reply. Hopefully it is still legible.
 
Yea... sorry. haha

It's ok. I've been thinking a lot about why UofL is so ahead of us in baseball. Before McDonnell came there, they had only been to one, ONE, NCAA tournament. Now just 9+ years later they are one of the favorites to win the whole thing. There is zero reason why UofL should be so much farther ahead if based on facilities, demographic and history.
 
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It's ok. I've been thinking a lot about why UofL is so ahead of us in baseball. Before McDonnell came there, they had only been to one, ONE, NCAA tournament. Now just 9+ years later they are one of the favorites to win the whole thing. There is zero reason why UofL should be so much farther ahead if based on facilities, demographic and history.

To give this a bit more reference... the year before McDonnell (2006), Louisville went 31-29 and had a batting average ranked 119 and an ERA ranked 139.

Their 2007 roster had 9 freshmen on it and 3 of those were redshirt freshmen. So, it was an older roster. McDonnell came in and took them to the CWS in his first season. I think some of those freshmen were important, one of which had a sub 3.00 ERA, but they weren't entirely reliant on that. He took an experienced team and made them better.
 
Where have the recruits come from for each program since 2007, geographically speaking
 
Where have the recruits come from for each program since 2007, geographically speaking

Hmm... I think I can do that fairly quickly... but I am going to guess a large portion are probably Kentucky kids for both, and that they largely hit up the surrounding states. Give me some time and I will try to give you a breakdown.
 
To give this a bit more reference... the year before McDonnell (2006), Louisville went 31-29 and had a batting average ranked 119 and an ERA ranked 139.

Their 2007 roster had 9 freshmen on it and 3 of those were redshirt freshmen. So, it was an older roster. McDonnell came in and took them to the CWS in his first season. I think some of those freshmen were important, one of which had a sub 3.00 ERA, but they weren't entirely reliant on that. He took an experienced team and made them better.

Mingione did almost the same thing in 2017. The main difference is UofL built and has sustained from that. U.K. went the opposite direction and has missed the last two tournaments.
 
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Mingione did almost the same thing in 2017. The main difference is UofL built and has sustained from that. U.K. went the opposite direction and has missed the last two tournaments.
And I think next season will be worse, unless he has a magic wand.
 
This will probably format very ugly, but here we go: UK is on the left and Louisville on the right:

Alabama 0 0
Alaska 0 0
Arizona 1 1
Arkansas 0 0
California 0 0
Colorado 3 0
Connecticut 0 0
Delaware 1 0
Florida 4 6
Georgia 13 1
Hawaii 2 0
Idaho 0 0
Illinois 8 28
Indiana 7 22
Iowa 0 4
Kansas 2 1
Kentucky 58 58
Louisiana 0 0
Maine 0 0
Maryland 0 0
Massachusetts 1 2
Michigan 5 0
Minnesota 5 0
Mississippi 0 1
Missouri 3 4
Montana 0 0
Nebraska 1 1
Nevada 0 0
New Hampshire 0 0
New Jersey 4 3
New Mexico 0 0
New York 1 1
North Carolina 0 0
North Dakota 0 0
Ohio 12 13
Oklahoma 3 0
Oregon 0 0
Pennsylvania 4 6
Rhode Island 0 0
South Carolina 0 0
South Dakota 0 0
Tennessee 12 4
Texas 4 0
Utah 3 0
Vermont 0 0
Virginia 1 1
Washington 0 0
West Virginia 2 0
Wisconsin 2 6
Wyoming 0 0
CANADA 7 0
Total: 169 163
 
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Also, a disclaimer... this is from PG and it does not mean that the recruit went to UK/UL. Just that we both got the commitment. They may have even gone to the school, but never suited up. I didn't do full roster searches and the numbers are likely no where near perfect.
 
Also, a disclaimer... this is from PG and it does not mean that the recruit went to UK/UL. Just that we both got the commitment. They may have even gone to the school, but never suited up. I didn't do full roster searches and the numbers are likely no where near perfect.
You don't have to "apologize" a bit for the research that went into this thread! However, regarding the player origins, perhaps you could go back and add an appropriate "0" to the states for which only a single number (i.e., UK or UofL) is now noted? Two things sorta jumped out at me...

Regarding the ERAs and BAs the Cardinal rankings have actually gone up since entering the ACC, a decidedly more difficult schedule than before. Go figure.

Regarding the player origins, the difference that jumps out the most is the UofL margin numbers from IL and IN. FWIW, McDonnell frequently talks about "recruiting the mid-west" even though there is obviously better weather issues (and probably amateur development opportunities) in the west and deep south.

Peace
 
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You don't have to "apologize" a bit for the research that went into this thread! However, regarding the player origins, perhaps you could go back and add an appropriate "0" to the states for which only a single number (i.e., UK or UofL) is now noted? Two things sorta jumped out at me...

Regarding the ERAs and BAs the Cardinal rankings have actually gone up since entering the ACC, a decidedly more difficult schedule than before. Go figure.

Regarding the player origins, the difference that jumps out the most is the UofL margin numbers from IL and IN. FWIW, McDonnell frequently talks about "recruiting the mid-west" even though there is obviously better weather issues (and probably amateur development opportunities) in the west and deep south.

Peace

I think I got it cleaned up a bit better. Hopefully, I didn't make any mistakes with it. I did it in excel originally and just copied and pasted, and had just deleted my excel file spreadsheet when I read your suggestion.

Illinois is extremely surprising to me. Also surprising is that both of them have 58 recruits from Kentucky in the same time span. What are the freaking odds of that?!
 
Also, to note... this is recruiting through 2018 instead of 2019 since none of the 2019 recruits have played for either school.

Although, UK picks up another state with a commitment from South Carolina. haha
 
This will probably format very ugly, but here we go: UK is on the left and Louisville on the right:

Alabama 0 0
Alaska 0 0
Arizona 1 1
Arkansas 0 0
California 0 0
Colorado 3 0
Connecticut 0 0
Delaware 1 0
Florida 4 6
Georgia 13 1
Hawaii 2 0
Idaho 0 0
Illinois 8 28
Indiana 7 22
Iowa 0 4
Kansas 2 1
Kentucky 58 58
Louisiana 0 0
Maine 0 0
Maryland 0 0
Massachusetts 1 2
Michigan 5 0
Minnesota 5 0
Mississippi 0 1
Missouri 3 4
Montana 0 0
Nebraska 1 1
Nevada 0 0
New Hampshire 0 0
New Jersey 4 3
New Mexico 0 0
New York 1 1
North Carolina 0 0
North Dakota 0 0
Ohio 12 13
Oklahoma 3 0
Oregon 0 0
Pennsylvania 4 6
Rhode Island 0 0
South Carolina 0 0
South Dakota 0 0
Tennessee 12 4
Texas 4 0
Utah 3 0
Vermont 0 0
Virginia 1 1
Washington 0 0
West Virginia 2 0
Wisconsin 2 6
Wyoming 0 0
CANADA 7 0
Total: 169 163
CB...thanks for the research, but the problem at UK is not quantity, but quality and McDonald and his staff do a much better job than either Henderson/ Mingione's staff.
 
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CB...thanks for the research, but the problem at UK is not quantity, but quality and McDonald and his staff do a much better job than either Henderson/ Mingione's staff.

Yea. I just did the breakdown for that because someone asked where the recruits were from. Would also be interesting to see where some of the best players came from, but I didn't dig that deep.
 
Just look at the quality of kids at u6 in the last 5 years from Louisville ,central and eastern KY.
 
Yea. I just did the breakdown for that because someone asked where the recruits were from. Would also be interesting to see where some of the best players came from, but I didn't dig that deep.
UL has recruited several studs from the Chicago area. The Burdi brothers and Corey Ray off the top of my head.
 
UL has recruited several studs from the Chicago area. The Burdi brothers and Corey Ray off the top of my head.
Think they have the top players in the state already signed /committed with one being from DEEP BLUE Paintsville...not a good sign/look for UK staff at all!!!!
 
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Well, at this point U of L is one of the top programs in college baseball. Along with Vandy. I wouldn't expect UK to be able to compete head to head with either in recruiting without a couple of years of sustained success (regular and post season). It will take time.
 
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Well, at this point U of L is one of the top programs in college baseball. Along with Vandy. I wouldn't expect UK to be able to compete head to head with either in recruiting without a couple of years of sustained success (regular and post season). It will take time.

I don't think it is unreasonable for UK to recruit with Louisville. UL has some top 10-15 classes, as has UK, but they regularly also drop into the 25-35 range, as does UK. I wouldn't consider UL to be elite at recruiting. I think they just get more out of their players and do a better job with developing pitchers than UK.

I think the big deal is that Louisville was a bottom feeder program up until 2007 when McDonnell came there. They had only made the NCAA tournament 1 time.... ever. Then they made the CWS and have made it 4 more times since. In the meantime, UK improved their program and began taking baseball more seriously, but have still been unable to get over the CWS hump and have only made the NCAA tournament a handful of times during that same time span. So, with UL making those strides, we should be able to at least do something similar. Maybe not quite as good, but there is little excuse for us wallowing in mediocrity while we watch our rival consistently be a top 5-10 program.
 
2007 is a long time, particularly to 18 year old kids. And Vandy wasn't any good at baseball until 2004 when Tim Corbin arrived. My point is that U of L and Vandy have become two of the top programs in the country, largely because of their head coaches. It is unreasonable to look at UK's current roster and compare it to U of L's and ask "why aren't they equal" or ask why U of L is getting better in state talent than UK currently.
 
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2007 is a long time, particularly to 18 year old kids. And Vandy wasn't any good at baseball until 2004 when Tim Corbin arrived. My point is that U of L and Vandy have become two of the top programs in the country, largely because of their head coaches. It is unreasonable to look at UK's current roster and compare it to U of L's and ask "why aren't they equal" or ask why U of L is getting better in state talent than UK currently.

I dont think anyone is asking that but instead are asking why not us? If they can do it then we can too. Traditionally being a northern school was an excuse, but with Louisville, Indiana, and Michigan doing so well that excuse holds less water.
 
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Well, at this point U of L is one of the top programs in college baseball. Along with Vandy. I wouldn't expect UK to be able to compete head to head with either in recruiting without a couple of years of sustained success (regular and post season). It will take time.
Going to take a new HC.
 
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Not making an excuse for either programs success/failure but the level of competition needs to factor into both programs and how they compiled these stats.
 
Not making an excuse for either programs success/failure but the level of competition needs to factor into both programs and how they compiled these stats.

I don't disagree with you in that regard, but the fact that they have been to the CWS so often proves, to me, that their success isn't just a product of weak competition.
 
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How exactly can you even begin to argue that U of L plays “weak competition” in the ACC?
 
How exactly can you even begin to argue that U of L plays “weak competition” in the ACC?

I may be wrong but I don’t think he was really implying that UofL plays weak competition. The SEC is one of the top conferences in college baseball but the ACC has a pretty good claim to that as well. IMO, the whole point of this argument is based on history, facilities and location there’s zero reason why UK should be this far behind UofL in terms of success. The deciding factor is coaching. That’s where Louisville has beaten Kentucky the worst. And I want to be wrong, but I don’t think Mingione will be the coach to get Kentucky there.
 
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I don't disagree with you in that regard, but the fact that they have been to the CWS so often proves, to me, that their success isn't just a product of weak competition.

Your right but their week competition (Up until going the ACC) did help them build their brand by racking up lots of win’s. Helps you cover up when you have a bad/down year when you are racking up games in CUSA, AAC and the Big East.

It’s not the end all/be all but it does help. Compared to cutting your teeth in the toughest conference in the nation can at times be an anchor on a young/building program.
 
I don't think it is unreasonable for UK to recruit with Louisville. UL has some top 10-15 classes, as has UK, but they regularly also drop into the 25-35 range, as does UK. I wouldn't consider UL to be elite at recruiting. I think they just get more out of their players and do a better job with developing pitchers than UK.

I think the big deal is that Louisville was a bottom feeder program up until 2007 when McDonnell came there. They had only made the NCAA tournament 1 time.... ever. Then they made the CWS and have made it 4 more times since. In the meantime, UK improved their program and began taking baseball more seriously, but have still been unable to get over the CWS hump and have only made the NCAA tournament a handful of times during that same time span. So, with UL making those strides, we should be able to at least do something similar. Maybe not quite as good, but there is little excuse for us wallowing in mediocrity while we watch our rival consistently be a top 5-10 program.
You have forgotten more about college baseball than I ever knew. IDK how valid their criteria is but, per this source, over the past 4 years (2016-2019), UofL recruiting has been average ranked at #17.5; UK at #18.5. For 2020 they rank UofL #12 and UK #14 but UK does have 2 more recruits than UofL. I don't follow this stuff at all but that would suggest very similar overall "talent" meaning the bulk of the performance difference is "coaching".

Cats definitely played a stronger schedule last year but, FWIW, I always find SOS to be a tricky thing to "quantify". Consider UofL football last year; #15 SOS per Sagarin. At some point it is not about "how good are your opponents" but "how bad are you". [winking]

Peace
 
I may be wrong but I don’t think he was really implying that UofL plays weak competition. The SEC is one of the top conferences in college baseball but the ACC has a pretty good claim to that as well. IMO, the whole point of this argument is based on history, facilities and location there’s zero reason why UK should be this far behind UofL in terms of success. The deciding factor is coaching. That’s where Louisville has beaten Kentucky the worst. And I want to be wrong, but I don’t think Mingione will be the coach to get Kentucky there.
If he is he better be a miracle worker next season and you see far too many head scratching in game decisions. May be worse than Henderson and he took a team to CWS last year.
 
BRIAN GREEN NAMED COUGAR BASEBALL HEAD COACH
By: Washington State Athletic Communications

PULLMAN, Wash. – Brian Green has been named the 17th baseball coach in Washington State history, Director of Athletics Patrick Chun announced Monday. Green will be introduced at a press conference Wednesday at 1 p.m. in the Rankich Club Room on the third floor of the Martin Stadium Press Box.

Brian Green comes to WSU after five seasons as the head coach at his alma mater New Mexico State where he led the Aggies to a 2019 Western Athletic Conference regular-season championship and an NCAA Regional appearance in 2018. Green led NMSU to an historic four-year stretch that saw the Aggies record 34 wins or more in each of the last four seasons and also signed four-straight nationally recognized recruiting classes along the way. Green has appeared in nine NCAA Regionals as a head coach or assistant coach at the Division I level.

"For over a century, there has been a storied history associated with Washington State Baseball," said Chun. "That history includes NCAA Tournament and College World Series appearances as well as a tremendous group of alumni that have done some extraordinary things with their respective lives beyond Cougar Baseball. The next chapter of our history begins today.

"Bringing Becki, Emily, Zoe and Brian Green to the Coug Family is our first step in the new chapter," Chun continued. "Coach Green is an exact fit for Washington State baseball. He is focused on family, recruits to his core values, develops the entire student-athlete and has proven to be an extraordinary builder of teams. We welcome the Green Family to the WSU Family and are ecstatic to work together to add to our storied history."

In his five years at NMSU, Green produced nine All-Americans including three first-team selections in 2019, 26 All-WAC honorees, a pair of Player of the Year selections, one Pitcher of the Year, one Freshman of the Year, and 22 WAC All-Academic selections. Since 2016, Green has helped send 12 players to the professional ranks, including a trio of top six round picks the last three years.

"It's hard to find the words to describe my excitement level of being named the 17th Head Coach in Washington State Baseball history!" said Green. "With the leadership team that Pat Chun has put together, the facility upgrades about to break ground, and the fact that it's Washington State and the Pac-12, this is unbelievable. We can't wait to immerse ourselves into this great community and get this program fired up. What a great day! Go Cougs!"

Green's offense finished the 2019 regular season with a NMSU-record .356 batting average and led the country in batting average, runs, runs per game, hits, triples, on base percentage, slugging percentage and hit by pitch. Individually, shortstop Joey Ortiz was named the WAC Player of the Year, a semifinalist for the Brooks Wallace Award (best shortstop in the country) and Dick Howser Award (best player in the country) while second baseman Nick Gonzales was also a semifinalist for the Howser Award and the Golden Spikes Award (national player of the year).

Defensively, the Aggies posted an impressive .974 fielding percentage a year after breaking the single-season school record with a .977 clip in 2018. On the mound, Green watched Chance Hroch put together one of the best seasons by an Aggie pitcher in program history, finishing with a 10-1 mark and a 2.74 ERA in 15 starts while earning first team All-Conference accolades.

Off the field, Green's program earned the NMSU Athletics Community Service Award for the fourth straight year in 2019 and set the program attendance record for the fourth time since 2015. The program accumulated over 6,000 hours of Community Service since Green took over the program.

Green guided the Aggies to a historic season in 2018, leading the team to a 40-22 overall record, a 17-7 mark in WAC play, the first WAC Tournament title and the fourth NCAA Regional appearance in program history. In his second season, Green guided the Aggies to the best win improvement in all of college baseball. The turnaround was a few wins shy of the biggest turnaround in NCAA history. After compiling a record of 11-38-1 in 2015, Green and the Aggies finished 2016 with a record of 34-23.

Prior to making a return to New Mexico State, Green was an assistant coach at Kentucky for six seasons (2009-14) where he transformed the Wildcat offensive attack as UK's offensive coordinator and infield defensive coach. Green's dynamic offense was paced by one of the best players in the history of college baseball in 2014, two-way star and Golden Spikes Award Winner, AJ Reed. The first pick of the second round in the 2014 MLB Draft by the Houston Astros, Reed was named the Dick Howser Trophy Award winner, the Baseball America College Player of the Year, and the John Olerud Award, given to the nation's top two-way player.

A native of Temecula, Calif., Green was a four-year assistant coach at UCLA (2005-08) before going to Kentucky as one of the top hitting instructors in college baseball. Green helped lead the Bruins to three consecutive NCAA Regional appearances and to the Super Regionals in 2007. Green's shortstop at UCLA, Brandon Crawford, solidified himself as one of the best young shortstops in the big leagues while playing with the 2012 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants and earned another championship ring in 2014.

Other stops for Green include Hawaii, Oregon State, San Diego, Chapman University, Cal Poly-Pomona, Riverside Community College and New Mexico State.

Green, 45, graduated from New Mexico State with a degree in business management in 1995 and earned his Master's degree in education from National University in 1997. He is married to the former Becki Francis and they have two daughters, Emily and Zoe.
 
My take on the great analysis above - our pitching has sucked. For years. And Louisville has enjoyed good to great pitching. For years. That is about the size of it. That is why we are who we are and why they are in their 4th CWS.

My football analogy - until Kentucky fixed its defense, e.g., 2018, UK was never rising above mediocrity, you simply cannot outscore the caliber of teams we play year in and year out without a good defense.

Likewise, until we "fix" the pitching, we will never win a super regional, never go to the CWS, and will continue to be a bottom level SEC team year in and year out.
 
My take on the great analysis above - our pitching has sucked. For years. And Louisville has enjoyed good to great pitching. For years. That is about the size of it. That is why we are who we are and why they are in their 4th CWS.

My football analogy - until Kentucky fixed its defense, e.g., 2018, UK was never rising above mediocrity, you simply cannot outscore the caliber of teams we play year in and year out without a good defense.

Likewise, until we "fix" the pitching, we will never win a super regional, never go to the CWS, and will continue to be a bottom level SEC team year in and year out.

Well said.
 
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