Kentucky Basketball: Factors That Will Make or Break Wildcats in 2015-16
- Thread starter preacher_tom
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1. I don't think it's entirely accurate to assume the starting 5.
2. I completely disagree it's a "foregone conclusion" that Lee will be our 6th best player.
3. The rest was pretty meh.
But thanks for sharing OP... I will take what I can get.
2. I completely disagree it's a "foregone conclusion" that Lee will be our 6th best player.
3. The rest was pretty meh.
But thanks for sharing OP... I will take what I can get.
The upcoming season's 'make or break' factor, imo, is simply whether, or not, we can overcome our inexperience.
Last season ('14-'15), we returned (from the previous season)(sometimes or all-times-starters) the two Harrisons, WCS & Poy (for just a little while).
Season before last ('13-'14), we returned (sometimes or all-times-starters) WCS & Poy.
Season before that ('12-'13), the closest player who returned as a starter was Wiltjer, who, season before that, was seventh in both scoring and minutes.
Season before that ('11-'12), we returned three of our top-six in both ppg and minutes (Lamb, Jones and Miller).
Season before that ('10-'11), as far as starters, we returned only our 5th-best ppg and mpg guy: Miller (Miller, by the way, had four, solid, UK seasons. He was 5th in team ppg his first-two seasons, 4th his third season, and sixth his last season.)
Season before that ('09-'10), we returned our 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th players (in terms of both ppg and mpg) = Patterson, Miller, Liggins and Harris, respectively.
This-coming season, we will return no starters and, in terms of ppg last season, we will return our 8th scorer (Ulis) (yet, realistically, he was certainly better than our 8th-best scorer), our 9th scorer (Poythress, who hardly had a chance last season [played only about half-a-game in eight games each]), 10th (Lee), 11th (Willis), 12th (Hawkins) and 13th scorer (Floreal).
The point is: simply in terms of *returning key players*, our current pre-season, right now, looks not totally unlike our 2012-13 and 2010-11 pre-seasons (see info. above)... or perhaps even 2013-14.
In 2012-13 we lost 12 games (Noel injured late), then, in 2010-11 we lost 9 games, and in 2013-14 we lost 11. Now, will we lose 9-12 games THIS season? Well, that's difficult to say. My first guess is 'no'. This season, we'll have an extremely talented, yet, overall new-to-UK roster, but remember: we'll probably be playing at least a slightly tougher regular-season schedule (than in recent years) (the SEC will be at least a little tougher, and so will our OOC, imo), so, with our team's overall inexperience at DI minutes-per-game, and based on other, recent, UK teams' losses, I think, even with our great talent, we should all be prepared for (...I'm gonna guess...) no fewer than four regular-season losses.
____________
This-coming season, we'll have EIGHT NEW-to-UK PLAYERS -- NINE, if Wynyard arrives in December, plus, a TENTH, Poythress, barely played last season (only early-on), although he would've played a ton, if he hadn't been injured.
New to UK, this season:
1) Mulder
2) walk-on guard Jonny David
3) walk-on guard Dillon Pulliam (soph. transfer)
4) Humphries
5) Matthews
6) Briscoe
7) Murray
8) Skal
(9: Wynyard?)
(Note: veteran Poythress played only 2.05% of last season's total team minutes.)
___________
This-coming season, UK returns 14.609% of last season's 1,006 field-goals made, and Ulis (who was 4th in team minutes-played, 8th in ppg, and only four assists away from 1st in assists) is responsible for 45.58% of that 14.609%.
Ulis: 67 FGM (6.66% of team's FGM)
Lee: 47 (4.67%)
Poy: 16 (1.59%)
Hawkins: 10 (0.994%)
Willis 7 (0.695%)
Floreal: 0 (0%)
_____________
UK returns 21.90% of last season's minutes-played, and Ulis is responsible for 51.141% of that 21.90%.
Ulis (883 mins. played): 11.20%
Lee (425 mins. played): 5.39%
Hawkins (163 mins. played): 2.06%
Poythress (162 mins. played): 2.05%
Willis (75 mins. played): 0.95%
Floreal: 0.25%
______________
UK returns 21.182% of last season's 203 3-pointers-made, and Ulis is responsible for 76.74% of that 21.182%.
Ulis: 33
Willis: 5
Hawkins: 5
__________
If I were to choose the top-several 'make or break' questions, they'd have to be:
Little Experience: "How much will our inexperience matter? Can we ever adequately overcome our significant, DI inexperience?"
Potential?: "How good are the new players, and how good will our entire team chemistry ever be, compared to the other top rosters'?"
The wait?: "How long will we have to wait before we become a great team?"
Last season ('14-'15), we returned (from the previous season)(sometimes or all-times-starters) the two Harrisons, WCS & Poy (for just a little while).
Season before last ('13-'14), we returned (sometimes or all-times-starters) WCS & Poy.
Season before that ('12-'13), the closest player who returned as a starter was Wiltjer, who, season before that, was seventh in both scoring and minutes.
Season before that ('11-'12), we returned three of our top-six in both ppg and minutes (Lamb, Jones and Miller).
Season before that ('10-'11), as far as starters, we returned only our 5th-best ppg and mpg guy: Miller (Miller, by the way, had four, solid, UK seasons. He was 5th in team ppg his first-two seasons, 4th his third season, and sixth his last season.)
Season before that ('09-'10), we returned our 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th players (in terms of both ppg and mpg) = Patterson, Miller, Liggins and Harris, respectively.
This-coming season, we will return no starters and, in terms of ppg last season, we will return our 8th scorer (Ulis) (yet, realistically, he was certainly better than our 8th-best scorer), our 9th scorer (Poythress, who hardly had a chance last season [played only about half-a-game in eight games each]), 10th (Lee), 11th (Willis), 12th (Hawkins) and 13th scorer (Floreal).
The point is: simply in terms of *returning key players*, our current pre-season, right now, looks not totally unlike our 2012-13 and 2010-11 pre-seasons (see info. above)... or perhaps even 2013-14.
In 2012-13 we lost 12 games (Noel injured late), then, in 2010-11 we lost 9 games, and in 2013-14 we lost 11. Now, will we lose 9-12 games THIS season? Well, that's difficult to say. My first guess is 'no'. This season, we'll have an extremely talented, yet, overall new-to-UK roster, but remember: we'll probably be playing at least a slightly tougher regular-season schedule (than in recent years) (the SEC will be at least a little tougher, and so will our OOC, imo), so, with our team's overall inexperience at DI minutes-per-game, and based on other, recent, UK teams' losses, I think, even with our great talent, we should all be prepared for (...I'm gonna guess...) no fewer than four regular-season losses.
____________
This-coming season, we'll have EIGHT NEW-to-UK PLAYERS -- NINE, if Wynyard arrives in December, plus, a TENTH, Poythress, barely played last season (only early-on), although he would've played a ton, if he hadn't been injured.
New to UK, this season:
1) Mulder
2) walk-on guard Jonny David
3) walk-on guard Dillon Pulliam (soph. transfer)
4) Humphries
5) Matthews
6) Briscoe
7) Murray
8) Skal
(9: Wynyard?)
(Note: veteran Poythress played only 2.05% of last season's total team minutes.)
___________
This-coming season, UK returns 14.609% of last season's 1,006 field-goals made, and Ulis (who was 4th in team minutes-played, 8th in ppg, and only four assists away from 1st in assists) is responsible for 45.58% of that 14.609%.
Ulis: 67 FGM (6.66% of team's FGM)
Lee: 47 (4.67%)
Poy: 16 (1.59%)
Hawkins: 10 (0.994%)
Willis 7 (0.695%)
Floreal: 0 (0%)
_____________
UK returns 21.90% of last season's minutes-played, and Ulis is responsible for 51.141% of that 21.90%.
Ulis (883 mins. played): 11.20%
Lee (425 mins. played): 5.39%
Hawkins (163 mins. played): 2.06%
Poythress (162 mins. played): 2.05%
Willis (75 mins. played): 0.95%
Floreal: 0.25%
______________
UK returns 21.182% of last season's 203 3-pointers-made, and Ulis is responsible for 76.74% of that 21.182%.
Ulis: 33
Willis: 5
Hawkins: 5
__________
If I were to choose the top-several 'make or break' questions, they'd have to be:
Little Experience: "How much will our inexperience matter? Can we ever adequately overcome our significant, DI inexperience?"
Potential?: "How good are the new players, and how good will our entire team chemistry ever be, compared to the other top rosters'?"
The wait?: "How long will we have to wait before we become a great team?"
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Poythress kinda blows all those figures out of the water because he would have played significant minutes all last yr had he not been injured in Dec.
Hell he probably would have helped UK to the title just like WCS would have in 14 had he not been injured in the sweet 16.
Hell he probably would have helped UK to the title just like WCS would have in 14 had he not been injured in the sweet 16.
Not sure who starts, but I think when the game is on the line in the past 4-5 minutes, it will be our five best all around players and I think that will be Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Poythress, and Labissiere.
If I could take a stab at your questions. I agree UK has little returning experience but we have a returning veteran core in Ulis, Lee, and especially Poythress. Compared to all but last year's Calipari teams that is actually pretty good in terms of returning experience. In relation the champions had just Jones, Lamb, and Miller.
The potential has a high ceiling with all the young talent. I think our veterans will be helpful in pulling the team together early. Ulis and Poythress seem like strong leadership players, especially Ulis. Some of the new players may need some time to develop but I doubt all of them will need a lot of time. Calipari has proven that he can mesh these type of teams together and get them to the final four 2 out of every 3 years. The question is can we win those final two games? Right now I see an elite eight to final four team but the championship is there for the taking.
I think the biggest key, as it almost always is in college basketball, is shooting.
The Cats will play defense because Calipari will make them. It helps that Poythress and Ulis are top-notch in that respect. Especially Poythress. Matthews seems to have made that jump as well. Hawkins is a very good defender as well. Plenty there to like.
They will likely not turn the ball over very much and should be a very good passing team. Three former (or current) PGs who aggressively look for openings will put them at the line a lot. All three seem to be very good and willing passers. All three will play a lot and will have the ball in their hands 90% of the time. (That limits the TO's Poythress, LaBassierre, and Lee may make as well.) Lanes will be open. Shots will be available.
Can they make those shots? Poythress is decent underneath, but his outside shot is certainly questionable. LaBassierre, Murray, and Briscoe are freshmen. You never know what you have with those guys until ten games in or so. Mulder may become very valuable as a zone buster/ Darnell Dodson type, but he too is a relative unknown. Even Ulis has questions to his game-- it's not like he took a ton of threes last season. Perhaps he, like Poythress his first year, got a little lucky.
If they can hit a relatively high percentage, they're as good as any team in America.
The Cats will play defense because Calipari will make them. It helps that Poythress and Ulis are top-notch in that respect. Especially Poythress. Matthews seems to have made that jump as well. Hawkins is a very good defender as well. Plenty there to like.
They will likely not turn the ball over very much and should be a very good passing team. Three former (or current) PGs who aggressively look for openings will put them at the line a lot. All three seem to be very good and willing passers. All three will play a lot and will have the ball in their hands 90% of the time. (That limits the TO's Poythress, LaBassierre, and Lee may make as well.) Lanes will be open. Shots will be available.
Can they make those shots? Poythress is decent underneath, but his outside shot is certainly questionable. LaBassierre, Murray, and Briscoe are freshmen. You never know what you have with those guys until ten games in or so. Mulder may become very valuable as a zone buster/ Darnell Dodson type, but he too is a relative unknown. Even Ulis has questions to his game-- it's not like he took a ton of threes last season. Perhaps he, like Poythress his first year, got a little lucky.
If they can hit a relatively high percentage, they're as good as any team in America.
It's always the same things with younger players; turnovers, rebounding, FT shooting and defense. Certainly injuries always play a part and the timing especially.
With three PGs as the primary ball handlers, the Cats should have a superior TO:A ratio.
With Calipari teaching them and a typically long squad, Kentucky should be adequate to above average on the glass. They have a chance to be better than that.
With three guards the primary drivers and Skal a good shooter, free throws should be a team strength.
Defense is a strength simply because Calipari is the best in the nation at teaching it. Add in NDPoY candidates Poythress and Ulis not to mention long-armed Briscoe and the already buzz-worthy Matthews, and you have a recipe for dominance.
I still think if we score more points than our opponents and they play solid defense we should win...
Health particularly Poythress, we need his thunder.
I suspect we may need for Mulder's 3 to translate to high D1.
Skal needs to not be a bust (no reason to think any such thing is the case, just saying we need him to be in the area of expectations) and also stay healthy.
To be really good on D, I'm thinking Lee has to be decently dialed in and also less of a liability on offense so he can really stay on the floor for serious minutes.
Gotta get on the boards.
I suspect we may need for Mulder's 3 to translate to high D1.
Skal needs to not be a bust (no reason to think any such thing is the case, just saying we need him to be in the area of expectations) and also stay healthy.
To be really good on D, I'm thinking Lee has to be decently dialed in and also less of a liability on offense so he can really stay on the floor for serious minutes.
Gotta get on the boards.
