Has KY 18-13 overall 8-10 in SEC. Personally I think we win minimum of 20.
Electronic ImbecilesHas KY 18-13 overall 8-10 in SEC. Personally I think we win minimum of 20.
Assuming that's about a third or so of the season in, do you know what sort of analyses they do to take into account the low sample size? We don't get into the sweet spot of 30 minimum data points until the season is basically over.KenPom and other statistically based rankings are meaningless before the season starts, or even very early in the season (before Dec). There just isn’t any or enough data for them. Therefore they rely upon subjective ASSUMPTIONS. Not objective data.
And I should know, as I am a Statistician, and even created a statistical computer ranking system for college basketball about 20 years ago.
No way bro.What does KenPom have for Arky? I'll wait.
I think Kentucky will win 21-25 games at best
At worst 19-21 games imo
Not claiming we'll win the the SEC, but I just don't see us dropping 10 conference games. Even if the conference is really good, 10 is a lot.Has KY 18-13 overall 8-10 in SEC. Personally I think we win minimum of 20.
This and so much more.I know that it's hard to judge success by one exhibition game, but that team I watched the other night is impressive. Scoring 123 against ether would have been impressive. And they made it look effortless. KenPom is a joke.
Great post LSC. Im glad Im not the only one preaching this be cause its soooooo true and blatant.Yeah i think anyone making these rankings and predictions are just being reserved. A wait-and-see approach..
Which is still funny, because because sort of thing only applies to UK. Any other new coach just gets the benefit of the doubt it seems. Scheyer, Hubert Davis... even BYUs first time coach gets more respect than Pope at UK lol.
It's pretty clear that the directive from ESPN and the NCAA is that they don't want UK winning.. it's not one of their academia programs, and it's not Duke or UNC or Kansas. Therefore we're the biggest threat.
THIS.Let’s just play the games. Screw the computer projections!
My belief is that not only will Kentucky be a top 10 team this season but also the national media will love Mark Pope.Yeah i think anyone making these rankings and predictions are just being reserved. A wait-and-see approach..
Which is still funny, because this sort of thing only applies to UK. Any other new coach just gets the benefit of the doubt it seems. Scheyer, Hubert Davis... even BYUs first time coach gets more respect than Pope at UK lol.
It's pretty clear that the directive from ESPN and the NCAA is that they don't want UK winning.. it's not one of their academia programs, and it's not Duke or UNC or Kansas. Therefore we're the biggest threat.
My belief is that not only will Kentucky be a top 10 team this season but also the national media will love Mark Pope.
Assuming that's about a third or so of the season in, do you know what sort of analyses they do to take into account the low sample size? We don't get into the sweet spot of 30 minimum data points until the season is basically over.
A third of the season sounds exactly right. Ken has said that his model doesn't operate fully on the current season's data until around the new year some time. Until then it operates on a lot of historical data, including last year's, and reasonable assumptions based on last year's data. He won't ever tell us for sure though.Assuming that's about a third or so of the season in, do you know what sort of analyses they do to take into account the low sample size? We don't get into the sweet spot of 30 minimum data points until the season is basically over.
Ah, that makes sense. Statistics, being a mathematical science, is both fascinating and out of my wheelhouse. 😂Most of these are possession based, so 10 games in teams each have hundreds of possessions - plenty enough to make some sense.
They do tend to get sharper and sharper as the season goes on, but some weight different parts of the season differently as well. A mix of science and art.
With those data, I have to assume there's some sort of modeling that can be done with current players based on estimations of minutes distributions, productivity, and previous systems. Even if the confidence values are garbage, we might be and to discern something.A third of the season sounds exactly right. Ken has said that his model doesn't operate fully on the current season's data until around the new year some time. Until then it operates on a lot of historical data, including last year's, and reasonable assumptions based on last year's data. He won't ever tell us for sure though.
I'm guessing for a situation like ours it's more difficult because we have a new coach with a completely new team. If it was a returning coach and a good portion of the team returned, then last year's data would be a lot more useful. His model can look at how Pope's teams have performed in the past with things like offensive tempo, shot distribution, etc., but that's probably a lot harder to do when you have to apply it to players who have never played together before. You also might have mid-major transfers (keep in mind his data is always adjusted for opponent strength) who don't project very well into this season because all their data from last year is based on lesser competition.
If you subscribe you can see a lot more in-depth data, including things like most utilized lineups, which players get which percentage of minutes at different positions, which is cool and doesn't really rely on large sample sets of data. But I don't really use it to make any determinations on which teams are good until at least January.
Ken-pom is looney toons, my bet is UK wins between 21 and 23 games.Has KY 18-13 overall 8-10 in SEC. Personally I think we win minimum of 20.
30 to 1 to win the sec
I put a Ulysses on that go cats
Has KY 18-13 overall 8-10 in SEC. Personally I think we win minimum of 20.