I was texting some buddies before the game yesterday and one asked “Is tonight a must win?” I said no, we are currently 8-3 with 11 games before the end of January, if we are worse than 16-6 at the end of January then it might be time to start to panic. The way I look at it, there are 4 really tough games between now and then:
@ Mizzou
@ Bama
@ UT
Vs Kansas
For 16-6 you would go 1-3 in those games and win the rest, which sounds somewhat reasonable, and would include some solid wins with 2 SEC road wins (@ Ole Miss and @ Vandy) and some nice home wins over LSU and A&M, plus whichever game you win out of the previously 4 mentioned. I think then this team would have some momentum into a much more manageable February (most tough games are home games). If we are worse than 16-6 at the end of January, I’m going to be a little worried, and if we are anything better then I think there will be some real excitement in air again.
I talked to those people and some others post game that shared some pessimism on even getting to 16-6. I get that we haven’t shown much to get excited about, but I do believe there is enough history under cal to show not to give up. Let’s run through some facts:
Last year: had 3 losses after first SEC road game losing the Champions classic, bad loss at ND, and a ugly looking loss at LSU that we were lucky to even be in the game. 1 quality win to that point and it was UNC in the CBS classic when they were struggling as well. They figured it out, but got derailed by injuries
2019-20: 4 losses after second SEC road game still in mid January, with three BAD losses to Evansville at home, a bad Utah team neutral court, and at a bad SC team. They had 2 quality wins to that point, Mich St in the champions classic and Louisville at home (both weren’t convincing) They figured it out and won the SEC regular season and looked primed to do damage in March.
2018-19: 3 losses after first sec road game in early January with 2 quality wins over UNC and @ Louisville. They figured it out and injuries derailed them from making a final 4, but still made an elite 8 and had a chance at the end of regulation to win it to go to the final 4
2017-18: lost their 2nd SEC road game to move to 3 losses on the season with really no quality wins before it. They would stumble some more, but eventually figured it out and won the SEC tournament, got a 5 seed, and made the sweet 16 and were a healthy Jared Vanderbilt or PJ Washington shooting at least 60% from FT line away from an elite 8 game against an 11 seed
2016-17: didn’t happen as early, but lost 3 of 4 at the end of January to have 5 losses on the season and people start to question if they were any good, but they figured it out, won out, won the SEC regular season and tourney, and went to an elite 8 and got beat at the buzzer
2015-16: after first SEC road game had 3 losses and all looked kinda bad, @ unranked UCLA after we just got ranked 1, CBS classic loss to an unranked Ohio St, and embarrassed at unranked LSU. They had 2 quality wins to that point over Louisville at home and Duke in the Champions Classic. They figured it out, split the SEC regular season title, won the SEC tourney, and got a bad draw in the NCAA tournament.
I don’t even have to discuss the woes of the 2011 and 2014 teams (two that made the final 4)
So this has happened before, and we have recovered. Every time has looked different and I can understand this time might feel like the worst because the 4 toughest teams we have played are our 4 losses and 3 have been pretty embarrassing for the most part, but I am not one to give up. And I’m not calling anyone out for giving up yet, but I want to try to change some of the negativity in to positivity.
I think what makes this year hard is we had what seemed to be reasonable preseason expectations that this team might be compared to the 2010, 2012, 2015 teams that dominated the whole season then add to that the 2021 season still lingering and St Peter’s. So yeah it sucks right now, but I do think they can figure it out and if we get to that 16-6 number or better I think people will find a lot of joy in this team and then February seems manageable especially if we do wind up 16–6 or better at the end of January.
We can argue all day about what the problems are and why they’ve happened and what to do differently, but I’m going to put faith in a guy that in 11 out of 13 years figured it out at some point and put a product on the court that got most people excited. I know this was a long post, but for those that stayed with it, I hope it brought you some hope that this might be ok.
@ Mizzou
@ Bama
@ UT
Vs Kansas
For 16-6 you would go 1-3 in those games and win the rest, which sounds somewhat reasonable, and would include some solid wins with 2 SEC road wins (@ Ole Miss and @ Vandy) and some nice home wins over LSU and A&M, plus whichever game you win out of the previously 4 mentioned. I think then this team would have some momentum into a much more manageable February (most tough games are home games). If we are worse than 16-6 at the end of January, I’m going to be a little worried, and if we are anything better then I think there will be some real excitement in air again.
I talked to those people and some others post game that shared some pessimism on even getting to 16-6. I get that we haven’t shown much to get excited about, but I do believe there is enough history under cal to show not to give up. Let’s run through some facts:
Last year: had 3 losses after first SEC road game losing the Champions classic, bad loss at ND, and a ugly looking loss at LSU that we were lucky to even be in the game. 1 quality win to that point and it was UNC in the CBS classic when they were struggling as well. They figured it out, but got derailed by injuries
2019-20: 4 losses after second SEC road game still in mid January, with three BAD losses to Evansville at home, a bad Utah team neutral court, and at a bad SC team. They had 2 quality wins to that point, Mich St in the champions classic and Louisville at home (both weren’t convincing) They figured it out and won the SEC regular season and looked primed to do damage in March.
2018-19: 3 losses after first sec road game in early January with 2 quality wins over UNC and @ Louisville. They figured it out and injuries derailed them from making a final 4, but still made an elite 8 and had a chance at the end of regulation to win it to go to the final 4
2017-18: lost their 2nd SEC road game to move to 3 losses on the season with really no quality wins before it. They would stumble some more, but eventually figured it out and won the SEC tournament, got a 5 seed, and made the sweet 16 and were a healthy Jared Vanderbilt or PJ Washington shooting at least 60% from FT line away from an elite 8 game against an 11 seed
2016-17: didn’t happen as early, but lost 3 of 4 at the end of January to have 5 losses on the season and people start to question if they were any good, but they figured it out, won out, won the SEC regular season and tourney, and went to an elite 8 and got beat at the buzzer
2015-16: after first SEC road game had 3 losses and all looked kinda bad, @ unranked UCLA after we just got ranked 1, CBS classic loss to an unranked Ohio St, and embarrassed at unranked LSU. They had 2 quality wins to that point over Louisville at home and Duke in the Champions Classic. They figured it out, split the SEC regular season title, won the SEC tourney, and got a bad draw in the NCAA tournament.
I don’t even have to discuss the woes of the 2011 and 2014 teams (two that made the final 4)
So this has happened before, and we have recovered. Every time has looked different and I can understand this time might feel like the worst because the 4 toughest teams we have played are our 4 losses and 3 have been pretty embarrassing for the most part, but I am not one to give up. And I’m not calling anyone out for giving up yet, but I want to try to change some of the negativity in to positivity.
I think what makes this year hard is we had what seemed to be reasonable preseason expectations that this team might be compared to the 2010, 2012, 2015 teams that dominated the whole season then add to that the 2021 season still lingering and St Peter’s. So yeah it sucks right now, but I do think they can figure it out and if we get to that 16-6 number or better I think people will find a lot of joy in this team and then February seems manageable especially if we do wind up 16–6 or better at the end of January.
We can argue all day about what the problems are and why they’ve happened and what to do differently, but I’m going to put faith in a guy that in 11 out of 13 years figured it out at some point and put a product on the court that got most people excited. I know this was a long post, but for those that stayed with it, I hope it brought you some hope that this might be ok.
