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Hot Stove 2013-2014 thread

JonathanW

JonathanW

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Jan 3, 2003
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Been a busy off-season, both FA's and trades.

Fielder / Kinsler trade
Fowler trade to Astros
McCann & Ellsbury to Yanks
Nolasco to Twins
Fister trade to Nats
Pierznynski to Red Sox
Bell / Choate / Hannigan trade
J.Johnson, Gregerson & Gentry all traded to A's (3 seperate deals)
Morneau to Rockies
Saltlamachia to Marlins
Peralta to Cards
Hudson to Giants
Byrd to Phils

And I bet there is more to come. Certainly many of the biggest names are still out there (Cano, Choo, Tanaka, Beltran, Napoli, Jimenez, Kuroda, Santana, Cruz, Garza & Granderson). And very possibly more trades to come (maybe in Orlando).

What do you Reds fans think of a possible Gardner for Phillips trade. I assume the Yanks would have to throw in a mid-tier prospect (if they have any). Would of course mean you don't bring back Choo. Maybe you can then sign a cheaper yet still productive 2B, maybe Infante.
 
Yanks are about to sign Kelly Johnson in case Cano bolts.

Gardner for BP would be so stupid though, and the Yanks dont have a prospect to give that balances it out either. Thats why they have to buy everyone.

Im extremely interested in the Cano situation though because if the Yanks are out on him, he aint getting close to his asking price.

Hope my cubs either get Tanaka or trade for Price.
 
Hey Jonathan, don't forget Bourjos for Freese/Salas.

I really like this deal for the Cards. A very good CF who can steal bases (which we didn't do at all last year). Salas got lit up like a Christmas tree every time he came in. I like Freese and he almost singlehandedly won the WS for St. Louis in 2011. But I think this and the Peralta signing (and not losing any of the young arms) make the Cards better next year.


What are your thoughts on Braun and the Brewers??

This post was edited on 12/11 5:01 PM by UNIVKY
 
I'm not sold on the Bourjos for Freese/Salas deal for StL. They sold low on Freese. He's not as bad as last year's numbers. BUT, he does get hurt often. I also don't think Bourjos will ever hit that great. Defensively he is an upgrade, but offensively (even factoring in the steals) I think he isn't much different than Jay.
Peralta I am thinking that you will see more of a 2009 or 2012 type numbers with mediocre defense. Think they would have been better off w/ Drew.

I think Braun will be just fine, hitting .300+ and 30+ and he should be healthy. They will be moving him to RF, where he has the arm, but can he adjust to the different angles (always been on the left side 3B/LF). As you noted on twitter they need a 1B. They had been talking about Morrison, looks like he (& Hart) are off the table now. I had hoped they would move that young kid from LF to 1B & keep Aoki, but that didn't happen. I don't think they will spend much on a 1B, nor give up much to trade for one; I bet they take a cheap option, something like Gaby Sanchez, Overbay, Smoak, or Garrett Jones. They aren't making a run until the pitching improves, which is at least a year away.
 
I had the same concern on Drew as I do with Freese (very injury-prone), so I am ok with Peralta. Freese also strikes out way too often. However, I'm not sold on Kolten Wong playing second and Matt Carpenter at 3rd. They are supposedly talking with Mark Ellis as well, who has a little pop.

I have always liked Garrett Jones ever since I was at PNC Park and saw him hit a moon shot against the Cardinals. He would do well in Milwaukee. I also really like Cory Hart. Surprised he will not be there.



This post was edited on 12/12 7:46 PM by UNIVKY
 
Saw that G.Jones signed with Marlins.

Hart is from Bowling Green KY, near my hometown, hated seeing him leave Milw.
 
So, in summary. Bourjos "will never hit that great..." and Peralta will be mediocre on defense, while braun ..."will be just fine at .300+ & 30+..."

that's some good objective analysis there Brewers fan!!


too funny...
This post was edited on 12/14 7:16 PM by 3rex
 
No offense to you Cards fans. I think Freese was better than Bourjos.
But yes, you summarized it pretty well.

In 7 seasons (even considering his first was only 113 games, and last year was < half a season between injuries and suspension) Bruan has averaged 30 HR and hit .312. His worst season prior to last year's 61 games was .304 & 25 HR. He's also in the middle (30) of his prime (27-32).

Bourjos is entering his prime (26). But he is a career .251 hitter with only a .704 OPS. He only has 1 season with > 200 AB, where he hit a pedestrian .271 & 12 HR, but also had 134 K's. He steals some, 20-25 in a full season, he probably could more if he got on base more (.306 OBP). So his best offensive season is comparable to Freese's worst. Bourjos does however provide a big upgrade to your defense, which shouldn't be overlooked.

Peralta was having perhaps a career year before his suspension. He does seem like an old 31. He is a .268 career hitter, but he has cut down on his K's the past few years at about 100/yr, but was on pace last year for 150. He had decent power for a middle infielder, but has only topped 20HR once over the last 5 seasons (and was on pace last year for 16). Lastly, Peralta is one of those guys who seems to alternate good/bad every other year (hitting around .245 in 2010 & 2012 combined; and 300 in 2011 & 2013 combined). 2014 is even numbered. Over his 9 seasons he has had 5 good and 4 bad seasons. He is below average defensively, negating the defensive upgrade that Bourjos provides.

Jay & Freese pretty equal to Bourjos & Peralta. So it wasn't a bad pair of moves, more of a lateral pair of moves.

All that said, your Cards >>> than my Brewers. Big difference in pitching!!!
 
of course, you fail to mention that the Cards desperately needed a shortstop, any shortstop, that could hit even a little bit and they have another 3rd baseman on the roster in Matt Carpenter.
Peralta/Carpenter >>>>> than Kozma/Freese....its not even close.

Additionally they needed an upgrade defensively in CF. Bourjos is widely considered a much superior defender to John Jay while likely similar as a hitter. So, again, an upgrade.

Im sure all that was just an oversight in your analysis.
 
I'm pretty sure I mentioned that Bourjos is a defensive upgrade.

Also you can't really (fairly) compare Peralta/Carpenter to Kozma/Freese. Trade or no trade, Carpenter is/would've-been in your lineup. The more honest comparison is between Peralta/Kong and Kozma/Freese (or other SS/Freese). Kozma is clearly the weakest hitter of the group. I think Freese is a slightly better hitter than Peralta. But Peralta wasn't the only SS option. I actually thought you guys would have made a blockbuster and gotten Tulo from the Rockies. Something like Wacha, Adams & maybe a medium-prospect for Tulo. Then ya'll would have been the undisputed NL favorite next year. You'll still be good, one of the favored 4-5 NL teams.
I do expect another move, probably Adams. Right now he is probably the odd man out, expecting Craig at 1B, and Taveras in RF.
 
I was afraid we would make a move like you mention and am so glad we didn't do so.

Tulo is the best SS out there, but no way I would've wanted to give up Wacha & the other power arms it would've taken to get him.
We made significant upgrades when you figure offense & defense in the equation & didn't give up one power arm.

I am excited & thankful for that.

Plenty of room to make a move down the road if necessary.
 
no GM in their right mind was/is dealing michael wacha for damn near anyone at this point. tulo was the best shortstop possibility out their, BUT the rockies asking price was outrageous, and should have been on their part i suppose. but names like shelby miller, carlos martinez and matt adams or michael wacha and adams and another minor league arm etc were being tossed around. and that would have absurd for mozeliek to deal these young guys for another guy who has been injury prone is his own right. the fact is, the cardinals upgraded in areas they needed WITHOUT giving up any of the young arms. the fact that anyone would even take salas off our hands was comical to me. i wouldn't think we could give him away.

it is probably correct to think that right field is going to be taveras's to lose for the future, thus moving craig back to first. and at this point, the cards are going to be in a nice spot for a july trade deadline deal depending on the situation and/or needs at that point.

defensively, the cardinals have much improved themselves as well. bourges(sp) has been discussed. wong is a much better 2nd baseman than carpenter, and carp is a better(his natural position) defensive 3rd baseman than freese.

the other factor not really mentioned here (and what made peralta much more desirable) is they only gave up cash to get him. the tigers didn't offer a qualifying offer, and no trade was required. thus the cards didn't have to give up a first round draft pick to sign him, which they would have to sign drew. so basically mo upgraded the big league club without giving up much of anything in return, only freese really. keeping all the young arms and future draft picks at home. and the farm system is still as strong as any.

shelby miller, michael wacha, joe kelly, lance lynn, trevor rosenthal, carlos martinez(who will probably, if he doesn't win a starting spot) be sent back to triple a, can't imagine wasting his talent over the course of the season as just a set up guy. that is an embarrassing stock pile of riches, where lynn is "the old guy".

throw in wainwright and jason motte should be set to work his way back to the club at some point i'm assuming next year.the cards are set for several years down the road.
 
Reds re-signed Corky Miller!

Really disappointed in the Reds off-season. They can't give BP away and have not answered any of their offensive issues. Actually they appear to be getting worse on offense by giving up on Choo.
 
Cards obviously don't believe Wong is ready, hence the signing of Mark Ellis.

Good discussion between Jonathan and 3Rex....Be careful Rex, I now know Jonathan and he is the STATS GURU...plus a good guy, even if he is a Brewers fan....
3dgrin.r191677.gif


This post was edited on 12/16 12:00 PM by UNIVKY
 
Originally posted by UNIVKY:
Cards obviously don't believe Wong is ready, hence the signing of Mark Ellis.

Good discussion between Jonathan and 3Rex....Be careful Rex, I now know Jonathan and he is the STATS GURU...plus a good guy, even if he is a Brewers fan....
3dgrin.r191677.gif



This post was edited on 12/16 12:00 PM by UNIVKY
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I think you're partially right in that I believe the Cards HOPE that Wong is ready. If so, his defense & speed, assuming he is ready to hit at the major league level will be assets to the team. Especially the speed, which has been relatively nonexistent in the Cards lineup for a while.
But, if he is not, then Ellis is certainly a better player than Descalso or Kozma, who might have otherwise been the backups.
I haven't followed Ellis much but from his numbers he could certainly be good in a platoon role, or even as the starting 2B if Wong proves to need more time in the minors.

As for Jonathan, I didn't mean any harm, his analysis just struck me as "All Cards moves bad....Braun good..." which I would expect from a Brewers fan. :)
 
I bet Ellis is just an insurance signing. Odds are on Wong being your 2B.

I expect a lineup of:
CF Bourjos
3B Carpenter
1B Craig
LF Holliday
SS Peralta
C Molina
RF Taveras
2B Wong

I think Taveras may become RoY.
 
Originally posted by Jon_D:
Shin-Soo Choo to the Rangers. Seven years, $130 million.
Click to expand...
He was a great one year fit for the Reds, but have a feeling the Rangers are overpaying him. Teams fell in love with his OBP, but I just don't think he is worth $18M a year, especially since he will be 32 or so on opening day. His defense was average, and was disappointed in his base stealing, although obviously, Dusty had a lot to do with that.
 
Originally posted by JonathanW:

I bet Ellis is just an insurance signing. Odds are on Wong being your 2B.

I expect a lineup of:
CF Bourjos
3B Carpenter
1B Craig
LF Holliday
SS Peralta
C Molina
RF Taveras
2B Wong

I think Taveras may become RoY.
Click to expand...
From a Reds standpoint thats an impressive lineup. I call Adams at first and Craig in RF, which is even more impressive
 
Originally posted by 3 fan:
Originally posted by JonathanW:

I bet Ellis is just an insurance signing. Odds are on Wong being your 2B.

I expect a lineup of:
CF Bourjos
3B Carpenter
1B Craig
LF Holliday
SS Peralta
C Molina
RF Taveras
2B Wong

I think Taveras may become RoY.
Click to expand...
From a Reds standpoint thats an impressive lineup. I call Adams at first and Craig in RF, which is even more impressive
Click to expand...
that will be the scenario to start the season most likely, but if taveras can impress at the big show the way he is expected, then this will be his year to eventually take right field. and bourjos won't be the lead off. fast, but not good enough on base percentage. you need your top two to be on base. something ole dusty couldn't figure out. he will be an asset, but not a lead off. carp isn't a prototypical leadoff, but he hits, and doesnt strike out a lot, and gets on base...aka..."moneyball"...
 
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