For those that think top recruits would be OAD regardless of school

[UKnCincy]

I saw a post on a rival team's board deriding recruits' belief that Cal increases their chance of getting to the league. They used the standard "these kids would be OAD at any school" argument. Thought it might be interesting to take a quick look at the numbers (note: only had time to look at the 2009-2012 recruiting classes; will try to add-in 2013-2014 later). I assumed that a top 15 recruit had the highest likelihood of OAD and restricted this to those recruits (Rivals ranking).

Of the 60 top 15 players during that period, 45% were OAD. For UK, 82% of top 15 recruits were OAD (9 of 11). For the top 15 recruits that committed to other schools, only 37% were OAD (18 of 49).

On average, a top 15 OAD recruit was selected 18th in the NBA draft. For those that played for UK, the average of their draft selections was 9th. For those that played for other schools, the average of their draft selections was 23rd.

Honestly, I was not expecting the difference between UK and other schools to be as large as it seems to be. Will be interesting to see what impact the 2013 class has on the numbers.

 

[UKvisitor]

Cal just knows how to roll the ball out better than other coaches with top recruits.

 

[Brando Mac]

Those rival fans sound a lot like many of us did during the late Tubby and entire Gillispie years when other schools were just flat out smoking our asses when it came to landing the elite recruits. I actually sympathize with them somewhat, because from what I remember those were some really rough times as a UK basketball fan.

Then I remember that those that I'm sympathizing with are the very same ones that took delight in the fact that we were down and lectured us for not being content with just fielding average-to-below average teams even by SEC standards, so then I begin to think "screw them, they're weak, they're getting what they deserve."

 

[n8lbs]

I did the math using the RSCI rankings.

From 2009-2014, 42/90 freshmen declared after their first year (47%).

Excluding Duke and UK, 12/23 freshmen (52%) were drafted in the lottery. The average draft position was 18.3.

10/13 UK freshmen were drafted in the lottery (77%), and the average draft position of the 13 one and dones was 9.31.

5/6 Duke freshmen were drafted in the lottery (83%), and the average draft position of the 6 one and dones was 8.33.



*DeAngelo Russell and Joel Embiid were both ranked #16 in their classes

*Didn't know what to do with Cliff Alexander so I counted him as the 61st pick in last year's draft

*Enes Kanter was included

 

[n8lbs]

I spent 30 minutes on this btw. I'm still cross-eyed from the maths but it's okay.

 

[UKWildcatT]

Those rival fans sound a lot like many of us did during the late Tubby and entire Gillispie years when other schools were just flat out smoking our asses when it came to landing the elite recruits. I actually sympathize with them somewhat, because from what I remember those were some really rough times as a UK basketball fan.

Then I remember that those that I'm sympathizing with are the very same ones that took delight in the fact that we were down and lectured us for not being content with just fielding average-to-below average teams even by SEC standards, so then I begin to think "screw them, they're weak, they're getting what they deserve."

I agree, but the thing is that UK fans weren't crying that other coaches were cheating, but we were holding our coaches responsible as to why they aren't recruiting up to par.

 

[Big_Blue79]

Huge UK fan, and I believe Cal does a great job getting players ready for the NBA (Davis and particularly Towns would agree), but there's too many other factors to make meaningful comparisons here. Too much variance with recruits.

 

[UKnCincy]

Huge UK fan, and I believe Cal does a great job getting players ready for the NBA (Davis and particularly Towns would agree), but there's too many other factors to make meaningful comparisons here. Too much variance with recruits.

You are correct in that there are several other factors involved. For example, recruiting class rank is a stronger predictor of one and done status than school attended (not surprisingly).

However, if you were to do a regression using school attended as one of the independent variables, the correlation between one and done status and UK is statistically significant.

I've looked at a handful of other schools and only one other school thus far has a statistically significant relationship with one and done status. UNC has a statistically significant correlation with spending an extra year in school for top 15 recruits. Duke and Kansas have correlations similar to UK, but neither are statistically significant at this point.

I'm in the process of building a logit model to see what impact UK might have on probability of one and done status. I'm still refining this (i.e., testing additional independent variables), but got some interesting outputs from the initial version.

If you are the number one ranked recruit in your class, there's an 82% probability that you'll be a one and done (according to this model). If you're the number one ranked recruit and attend UK, your probability increases to 92%.

If you're the 10th ranked recruit, your probability of being a one and done is 32%. However, if you are the 10th ranked recruit and attend UK, your probability increases to 55%.

Those are both meaningful increases and these results aren't surprising. If you're the #1 recruit, then you likely are good enough and have enough exposure already to where you can attend any school and be a one and done.

However, as you move down to those 5 star recruits outside the top 5 or so, you can greatly increase your probability of being a one and done by attending UK (according to this model).

 

[Bodvar Bjarki]

Cal's system prepares you to play in the NBA.

The perfect example is Duke. If you go to Duke you are not learning how to play defense in the NBA, period. You will be stunted defensively and there is no question about it.

As for UNC and Kansas, I think a very clear case can be made that Self and Williams hold players back to some degree and play games that can hurt a player's development and NBA draft stock. Both Self and Williams will not hesitate to throw a player under the bus, either.

UK fan status aside, there just isn't any question that if you are an elite level basketball player then Cal and UK will not just prepare you for the league as a player, but what it takes to be successful at UK prepares you for the limelight and competition of the NBA far better than any other program without any games being played or any roadblocks being thrown in your way.

 

[kybassfan]

This whole issue is just silly. Try to take a freshman guard or any other freshman player for that matter and make a deep run into the tournament. That's near impossible.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

This whole issue is just silly. Try to take a freshman guard or any other freshman player for that matter and make a deep run into the tournament. That's near impossible.

Haha. You're right, it's impossible.

 

[kybassfan]

Haha. You're right, it's impossible.

Oh, I don't think so. Just nearly so. Very difficult. As I said.

This whole issue is just silly. Try to take a freshman guard or any other freshman player for that matter and make a deep run into the tournament. That's near impossible.

Who told you it was impossible? Wouldn't seem so since Calipari has done it. Just very difficult. You know NEARLY impossible. Can't imagine who told you that.

 

[FiveStarCat]

Bump for the MSU fan @KLucas1

 

[TruBluCatFan]

I can't believe you didn't give us the info on the UofL OAD recruits during that period did.

 

[JC CATS]

Those rival fans sound a lot like many of us did during the late Tubby and entire Gillispie years when other schools were just flat out smoking our asses when it came to landing the elite recruits. I actually sympathize with them somewhat, because from what I remember those were some really rough times as a UK basketball fan.

Then I remember that those that I'm sympathizing with are the very same ones that took delight in the fact that we were down and lectured us for not being content with just fielding average-to-below average teams even by SEC standards, so then I begin to think "screw them, they're weak, they're getting what they deserve."

What the hell does Tubby and Billy G have to do with this thread?

 

[UKnCincy]

By the way, the analysis I ran earlier is not the only example of where data has suggested that what UK has to offer is simply head and shoulders above other schools.

Kenpom included Jackson Famborough's predictive analytics for recruiting (PASR) on his site last year. Jackson has since moved this to his own site, but the factors he used to build his model usually means that UK is the favorite for all recruits to whom we extend an offer. For example, his model had us as the favorite for Bam all along.

One of his recent tweets debating recruiting with a fan mentioned:

PASR is based on utility maximization with UK being on top in almost every case. Meaning if UK offers, they should go there.
​

Point being, if you build a model based on the factors people say are important to recruiting (e.g., winning, draft history, number of visits, proximity), the model will say that UK should dominate recruiting. Any rival fan who tries to suggest that UK is pulling anything shady are simply ignoring the facts.

 

[Old_Red]

Watching LSU tonight convinces me that UK has something special going on. Simmons and Blakeney may end up with amazing stats but team success will probably not be there unless they learn to play defense and place more value on each possession.

 

[mj2k10]

I've looked at these types of things myself. I think it comes down to one simple concept:

If you have the talent, Cal and UK will help you display it.

Period.

Seems simple, but when you're talking about only being able to coach guys for a year, and when you're talking about putting together teams on which it's rare that more than 3-4 guys have any experience playing together, it's really not. Cal has proven he can do it, most other coaches haven't. Some have shown signs of distinctly struggling with it.

However much or little credit you give Cal for "developing" players, guys are flocking to UK because of more than just his sheer salesmanship.

 

[.S&C.]

I've looked at these types of things myself. I think it comes down to one simple concept:

If you have the talent, Cal and UK will help you display it.

Period.

Seems simple, but when you're talking about only being able to coach guys for a year, and when you're talking about putting together teams on which it's rare that more than 3-4 guys have any experience playing together, it's really not. Cal has proven he can do it, most other coaches haven't. Some have shown signs of distinctly struggling with it.

However much or little credit you give Cal for "developing" players, guys are flocking to UK because of more than just his sheer salesmanship.

I agree with MJ here. Cal sysytem is designed to benifit true OAD Players. His system prepares the best of the best.

When coach K hangs it up, cal will probably get whoever he wants. if by some miracle he gets to coach team USA, shut the gyms down until he leaves.

Rival fans have no clue about the inner workings of recruiting OAD players. I've completely quit listening to rivals after the acceptance of the OAD post coach k. Proven hypocrites.