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First 3 games make or break the season.

Oct 3, 2014
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Seems to be a lot of discussion on here about the record this year. I think everything hinges on games 1-3.
I think everyone is in agreement that we will win the opening game. If UK beats USCjr and UF (both are toss up games I would say) then there is a realistic chance that UK could start the year 4-1 or 5-0. The second half of the season has very winnable games. Miss St. UofL, UT, Charlotte and Vandy can all be W's for UK. I see a lot of talk that 6-6 is the best we can hope for but I just don't see it that way. Sure, if we start the year 1-2 that could be the case I just think UK breaks through and we have a special season.

If UK starts the year 3-0 the sky is the limit and we are going to have a lot of fun this year!
 
Slight correction...first 4 games.

IMO, it is imperative to come out of those 4 games no worse than 2-2 to achieve the kind of season everyone wants. When playing for a break even year (or better) there is a big different between a 2-2 start and a 1-3 start. If the Cats get off 2-2 they will likely be in the fight for at least a 6 win season throughout the season. But start off 2 games under .500 with 8 left to play and it gets a lot more challenging. Not impossible, but zero room for error. Last year's 1-5 start and disappointing 0-6 finish was due in large part to a very lopsided front and back ends of the schedule. JMO.

Peace
 
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Good breakdown OP..UK needs to come out of those first 3 games at no worse than 2-1..losing to BOTH S.Car and Fla. (two of the easier & most winnable SEC games on the schedule) would likely spell disaster for the season..we have to split at the very worst and it would be nice to get both..man it's just so so hard to go on the road and win at SC, but I have no doubt we can do it..also, based on last season if we can start out the season as hot as we did a year ago it might be really good that we catch those two teams early on since S. Car will be breaking in a new QB, and Fla. has an entirely new scheme (but both will still have a ridiculous amount of talent and speed all over the field as usual)

Everyone keeps talking about the win total and I'm wondering if they're factoring in the bowl game when they do so..I think we finish the regular season at 7-5..that's not optimistic or pessimistic, it's right on the nose of where our team is IMO..if you factor in the bowl game against a so-so OOC team we'll have a really good chance at getting to 8 wins..that would be a solid step up the ladder and it's a record that we're completley capable of..it's not some kind of pie in the sky prediction that's unreasonable

The bottom line for this year is that if we want to take that next step up the ladder we're going to have to win more of those close games..that's something that a team has to learn how to do..we got to a point in the Woodson era where comebacks and close games were something we didn't worry about

When it comes down to the 4th quarter against SC and Fla and Mizz and UofL, whose going to want it more? I can sense a real hunger around the team and program to take that next step forward and that's a good thing

Overall, this has to be one of the more unpredictable seasons I can remember in a while..there are so many toss-ups where neither team is going to have a decided advantage..I think a lot of it's going to come down to how Patrick Towles and the receivers can play in those close situations..this season we really need some of those young guys to step up and be leaders in the key moments like we saw Woodson and Stevie Johnson and Wesley Woodyard and Trevard Lindley do in those close games..when the games were tight those guys stepped up and made plays..it's like Stoops says all the time..no one is going to give it to you..that's going to be the key to this season in all of these close games ..we need Towles and Boom and Stamps and Forrest to make those plays..and don't sleep on Ryan Timmons, he seems motivated to have a big year
 
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When I say UK will get 6 or 7 wins I mean regular season. I think 7-8 wins if they can win the bowl game. I don't think the schedule this season is set up for a start like last season and I think that's a very good thing. 5 wins spread over the season would have been seen as a success, but coming all at once, fans got too excited and didn't pay attention to the fact that the schedule was backloaded (a stupid move by whoever schedules games IMO). This season, I would bet money that 3 of UK's wins come from the last 3 games. If UK is sitting at 3-6 going into those games it's going to be an incredibly nerve-wrecking finsl three games.
 
If they win two of the first four, I'll be confident about a bowl. And if they can win one of the four tough midseason stretch, (Auburn/UT/MSU/Georgia) I'll feel really good.
 
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We have a chance in every game but Tennessee and Georgia this year
Not sure why they would have a chance against Auburn and not Tennessee. Tennessee will be good, but playing them earlier in the year than usual in what should be an electric atmosphere will help Kentucky.
 
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I agree. UK needs to split USC and Florida. Looking at ESPN power rankings they are 11 and 12 so sports media isn't high on them. If UK loses to both and Missouri then they are in a tough spot.
 
We have a chance in every game but Tennessee and Georgia this year

I'm not sold on Tennessee being some kind of juggernaut..I think the score of last year's game was about as flukey as they come..if you look at the common opponents that Kentucky and Tennessee had last year the scores were almost the exact same (actually we probably played a little bit better against Fla, Mizz, S. Car) it was just that we caught Tennessee in the middle of that losing streak where for some reason or another we weren't playing even close to what we were earlier in the season..Tennessee will be solid this year, but they're far from being some kind of team that we can't beat, especially at home..if you would've stuck South Carolina and Florida in the back half of our schedule last year both of those teams would've blown us out..we were just a totally different team in the second half of the year and I felt like they kind of mailed it in a little bit..I know Georgia and Tennessee were better than us, but they weren't better than us like those scores indicated..at that point our young guys and the coaching staff had just mailed it in and seemed to be playing for next year by the time we caught those two on the schedule..I noticed a real difference in the way the coaching staff talked in the first half of the year and the second..in the first the coaches never made any excuses about their depth, but after that LSU game I noticed a totally different attitude coming from them when they talked (not that I can blame them a whole lot, but still)

They started talking about what they didn't have instead of what they did..I remember in the first half in the season Stoops was asked about depth several times and if it was a problem or if it was lacking, and Stoops would respond by saying "I don't want to comment on that because I don't want to give these guys an out or an excuse," but in the second half of the season that was completely different, that's exactly what started happening..you could just tell the coaches and players had just acknowledged in several of those games that they didn't have the depth and kind of felt like what's the point in killing ourself?'..Stoops started talking about how they didn't have the depth, and you could just sense that in their minds they felt like they might as well mail it in because they were beat before the game even started..there were several games where Stoops just took his headset off as soon as the second half started and just stood there not saying a word to any coaches or players the entire half..it was pretty obvious he was mailing it in once we got in a little bit of a hole in several of those games..I think he convinced himself that our depth was a little bit worse than it actually was...I don't know what happened in the second half of the season, I know we really lacked depth, but if we can beat South Carolina and (basically) beat Florida and take the #1 team in the nation to the wire and (almost) beat another top-25 team on the road and then go on the road and have a chance to beat the East-division champ we never should've have gotten blown out by Georgia and Tennessee like we did..I put a lot of that on the coaching staff and I'm confident they'll be better this year..they've mentioned how they need to be more consistent this year, and I think they will be..we saw flashes of what our talent can do last year, now we just need to put it together every single time out, not just 8 or 9 games out of 12, we can't coast on talent, we have to bring it every single week in the SEC..we mailed in that Georgia and Tennessee game (and LSU) last year, but we had a lot of young players that were learning what SEC football is about, and a head coach that's still feeling his way through being the leader of a program...we didn't fight back like we did in every other game that season, but we'll be better this year...I think we'll have a good chance to beat Tennessee at home this year
 
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Tennessee plays KY in Lexington on Breeder's cup weekend, likely a Halloween evening game. The crowd should be amped unless we're limping in with a terrible record. Also, UT plays Bama the week before playing us. They will be bruised and battered (this isn't just rhetoric - check the records of teams the week after playing Bama over the last ten years - HINT, it's not good).
 
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I'm not sold on Tennessee being some kind of juggernaut..I think the score of last year's game was about as flukey as they come..if you look at the common opponents that Kentucky and Tennessee had last year the scores were almost the exact same (actually we probably played a little bit better against Fla, Mizz, S. Car) it was just that we caught Tennessee in the middle of that losing streak where for some reason or another we weren't playing even close to what we were earlier in the season..Tennessee will be solid this year, but they're far from being some kind of team that we can't beat, especially at home..if you would've stuck South Carolina and Florida in the back half of our schedule last year both of those teams would've blown us out..we were just a totally different team in the second half of the year and I felt like they kind of mailed it in a little bit..I know Georgia and Tennessee were better than us, but they weren't better than us like those scores indicated..at that point our young guys and the coaching staff had just mailed it in and seemed to be playing for next year by the time we caught those two on the schedule..I noticed a real difference in the way the coaching staff talked in the first half of the year and the second..in the first the coaches never made any excuses about their depth, but after that LSU game I noticed a totally different attitude coming from them when they talked (not that I can blame them a whole lot, but still)

They started talking about what they didn't have instead of what they did..I remember in the first half in the season Stoops was asked about depth several times and if it was a problem or if it was lacking, and Stoops would respond by saying "I don't want to comment on that because I don't want to give these guys an out or an excuse," but in the second half of the season that was completely different, that's exactly what started happening..you could just tell the coaches and players had just acknowledged in several of those games that they didn't have the depth and kind of felt like what's the point in killing ourself?'..Stoops started talking about how they didn't have the depth, and you could just sense that in their minds they felt like they might as well mail it in because they were beat before the game even started..there were several games where Stoops just took his headset off as soon as the second half started and just stood there not saying a word to any coaches or players the entire half..it was pretty obvious he was mailing it in once we got in a little bit of a hole in several of those games..I think he convinced himself that our depth was a little bit worse than it actually was...I don't know what happened in the second half of the season, I know we really lacked depth, but if we can beat South Carolina and (basically) beat Florida and take the #1 team in the nation to the wire and (almost) beat another top-25 team on the road and then go on the road and have a chance to beat the East-division champ we never should've have gotten blown out by Georgia and Tennessee like we did..I put a lot of that on the coaching staff and I'm confident they'll be better this year..they've mentioned how they need to be more consistent this year, and I think they will be..we saw flashes of what our talent can do last year, now we just need to put it together every single time out, not just 8 or 9 games out of 12, we can't coast on talent, we have to bring it every single week in the SEC..we mailed in that Georgia and Tennessee game (and LSU) last year, but we had a lot of young players that were learning what SEC football is about, and a head coach that's still feeling his way through being the leader of a program...we didn't fight back like we did in every other game that season, but we'll be better this year...I think we'll have a good chance to beat Tennessee at home this year

I think there were many reasons UT beat UK last season: 1) UT is about a year ahead in their rebuild, 2) UK was wore down by the time the teams played, 3) It was a home game for Tennessee, 4) UT has been recruiting at a somewhat higher level than UK, 5) UT was coming off a BYE; I still think UT would have won that game handily, but I think it would have been closer. I think this year that game in CWS will be closer. I also think when people say Kentucky fell off in the back half of the season, that is true, but Kentucky also had an easier schedule the first half of the season. It wasn't just that they weren't playing hard anymore, they were actually playing tougher teams.

Tennessee played Mizzou better than UK did and went on the road and beat South Carolina on Halloween at the end of a brutal stretch in their schedule. That game was one of the better comebacks I saw last season. I also thought Tennessee was overall significantly better than Kentucky on defense last year and slightly better on offense. This year I expect both Tennessee and Kentucky to be better on offense and while I expect Tennessee to be better on defense, I just really have no idea about Kentucky's defense. I think it will be better, I'm not sure it could be worse, but I'm not sold on DJ Eliot and the defense yet so I suppose time will tell.
 
We have a chance in every game but Tennessee and Georgia this year

Everyone has a chance in every game, some games are more likely. But you have to add AU to that list of least chance, they are picked by quite a few to win the SEC. I don't know exactly what Gus will do to adjust his offense to his qb this year, he has always used a very mobile qb who wasn't the great passer. Johnson is the passer they have been missing in Cam and Marshall but is not the running threat of either of those, but he is fairly athletic and a big guy, 240 or so. I think he will still show the speed sweep and run that dive to the RB, which you have to control without S help or they will run up and down the field on you all night. If S has to get involved with the RB, the qb still has 3 options on the edge, keep, pitch to a back on a little swing pass, if the CB comes up, he hits the receiver for a big gain if the S is late getting in position because he is biting on the RB. They run it both to and away from the motion guy so you can't just overload to one side. Kind of reminds me of the Jones guy at tOSU in appearance.
 
I'm not sold on Tennessee being some kind of juggernaut..I think the score of last year's game was about as flukey as they come..if you look at the common opponents that Kentucky and Tennessee had last year the scores were almost the exact same (actually we probably played a little bit better against Fla, Mizz, S. Car) it was just that we caught Tennessee in the middle of that losing streak where for some reason or another we weren't playing even close to what we were earlier in the season..Tennessee will be solid this year, but they're far from being some kind of team that we can't beat, especially at home..if you would've stuck South Carolina and Florida in the back half of our schedule last year both of those teams would've blown us out..we were just a totally different team in the second half of the year and I felt like they kind of mailed it in a little bit..I know Georgia and Tennessee were better than us, but they weren't better than us like those scores indicated..at that point our young guys and the coaching staff had just mailed it in and seemed to be playing for next year by the time we caught those two on the schedule..I noticed a real difference in the way the coaching staff talked in the first half of the year and the second..in the first the coaches never made any excuses about their depth, but after that LSU game I noticed a totally different attitude coming from them when they talked (not that I can blame them a whole lot, but still)

They started talking about what they didn't have instead of what they did..I remember in the first half in the season Stoops was asked about depth several times and if it was a problem or if it was lacking, and Stoops would respond by saying "I don't want to comment on that because I don't want to give these guys an out or an excuse," but in the second half of the season that was completely different, that's exactly what started happening..you could just tell the coaches and players had just acknowledged in several of those games that they didn't have the depth and kind of felt like what's the point in killing ourself?'..Stoops started talking about how they didn't have the depth, and you could just sense that in their minds they felt like they might as well mail it in because they were beat before the game even started..there were several games where Stoops just took his headset off as soon as the second half started and just stood there not saying a word to any coaches or players the entire half..it was pretty obvious he was mailing it in once we got in a little bit of a hole in several of those games..I think he convinced himself that our depth was a little bit worse than it actually was...I don't know what happened in the second half of the season, I know we really lacked depth, but if we can beat South Carolina and (basically) beat Florida and take the #1 team in the nation to the wire and (almost) beat another top-25 team on the road and then go on the road and have a chance to beat the East-division champ we never should've have gotten blown out by Georgia and Tennessee like we did..I put a lot of that on the coaching staff and I'm confident they'll be better this year..they've mentioned how they need to be more consistent this year, and I think they will be..we saw flashes of what our talent can do last year, now we just need to put it together every single time out, not just 8 or 9 games out of 12, we can't coast on talent, we have to bring it every single week in the SEC..we mailed in that Georgia and Tennessee game (and LSU) last year, but we had a lot of young players that were learning what SEC football is about, and a head coach that's still feeling his way through being the leader of a program...we didn't fight back like we did in every other game that season, but we'll be better this year...I think we'll have a good chance to beat Tennessee at home this year

Against UGA not being able to get off the field on 3rd down and special teams doomed UK. 2 returns for TDs is demoralzing not to mention momentum swings.
 
Were you watching last year? The season never hinges on the 1st 3 games.

It does when USCjr and UF are in the first 3. I would also argue the only 2 games UK probably can't win are Auburn and UGA. If UK starts the season 3-0 I think it's very likely we are 5-0 going into the Auburn game.
 
It does when USCjr and UF are in the first 3. I would also argue the only 2 games UK probably can't win are Auburn and UGA. If UK starts the season 3-0 I think it's very likely we are 5-0 going into the Auburn game.
Many false premises there. Last year, Kentucky started 5-1. Look what happened after that. You attach arbitrary significance to South Carolina and Florida, but every SEC win counts the same. From a momentum point of view, I think Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, Tennessee are our key SEC games. But every game is winnable. We will be heavy underdogs to Georgia, but every other SEC game on our schedule should be competitive. Closing the season strong is a big team goal this year. Our coaches don't want a repeat of last year, and our improved depth should make us much tougher in November this time. I doubt we start 3-0, but I see a bowl game coming for us this year.
 
If a couple of breaks go our way and we start the season 5-0 then I wouldn't be surprised to this team win 9 regular season games. I'm expecting a 7 win season but I like the feel around this team and nothing will surprise me.
 
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Against UGA not being able to get off the field on 3rd down and special teams doomed UK. 2 returns for TDs is demoralzing not to mention momentum swings.

Giving up 9+ yards per play was the problem in that game Grumpy - it wasn't just a third down thing.
 
Many false premises there. Last year, Kentucky started 5-1. Look what happened after that. You attach arbitrary significance to South Carolina and Florida, but every SEC win counts the same. From a momentum point of view, I think Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, Tennessee are our key SEC games. But every game is winnable. We will be heavy underdogs to Georgia, but every other SEC game on our schedule should be competitive. Closing the season strong is a big team goal this year. Our coaches don't want a repeat of last year, and our improved depth should make us much tougher in November this time. I doubt we start 3-0, but I see a bowl game coming for us this year.

You are really missing the point here.
 
Seems to be a lot of discussion on here about the record this year. I think everything hinges on games 1-3.
I think everyone is in agreement that we will win the opening game. If UK beats USCjr and UF (both are toss up games I would say) then there is a realistic chance that UK could start the year 4-1 or 5-0. The second half of the season has very winnable games. Miss St. UofL, UT, Charlotte and Vandy can all be W's for UK. I see a lot of talk that 6-6 is the best we can hope for but I just don't see it that way. Sure, if we start the year 1-2 that could be the case I just think UK breaks through and we have a special season.

If UK starts the year 3-0 the sky is the limit and we are going to have a lot of fun this year!
I really don't see the UT game being a win.
 
It's good to dream early in August before the season starts but a 5-7 or 6-6 would be a good year. UT, AU, GA, UofL. MO are all good teams with potentially tough defensive squads.
 
It's good to dream early in August before the season starts but a 5-7 or 6-6 would be a good year. UT, AU, GA, UofL. MO are all good teams with potentially tough defensive squads.
UK needs to get to 6 to 7 wins to have a good season, and I think it will happen. UK should beat U of L at home as well. In all honesty I think this isn't going to be a good year for U of L sports fans as their football team is overrated and their basketball team will get beaten badly by the ACC.
 
If a couple of breaks go our way and we start the season 5-0 then I wouldn't be surprised to this team win 9 regular season games. I'm expecting a 7 win season but I like the feel around this team and nothing will surprise me.


You going to making all Kentucky Fans jump for joy if this come true. :cool2:[cheers]
 
maybe the basketball-only fans & the local casual uneducated media who report on the program will "break" if we start out 1-2, but I don't believe this team nor the coaches will likewise surrender
 
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Seems to be a lot of discussion on here about the record this year. I think everything hinges on games 1-3.
I think everyone is in agreement that we will win the opening game. If UK beats USCjr and UF (both are toss up games I would say) then there is a realistic chance that UK could start the year 4-1 or 5-0. The second half of the season has very winnable games. Miss St. UofL, UT, Charlotte and Vandy can all be W's for UK. I see a lot of talk that 6-6 is the best we can hope for but I just don't see it that way. Sure, if we start the year 1-2 that could be the case I just think UK breaks through and we have a special season.

If UK starts the year 3-0 the sky is the limit and we are going to have a lot of fun this year!

You and I are apparently always going to see things different. We can lose to USC (on the road) and UF (toss up) so long as we beat Missouri. We have to be at least 3-2 going into our off week. UT, despite your repeated posts that under value them, will be a very tough game. I don't put Auburn in the toss up group, they are between Georgia and UT for me. We will beat Candy and Vandy leaving us needing a win over either Miss State or UL and we would be 6-6. Any more wins are gravy, and are very possible, but the season doesn't hinge on games 2-3.
 
I posted a couple weeks ago that 5-7 would be tolerable progress so long as we were competitive in all the losses. No big blowouts like last year. Make the other teams earn the win. We wouldn't like it, but it would still be progress. I don't know if it would be enough to hang on to our recruiting class though.
 
5-7 would be an absolute failure
That SMPLLFE111 is a Louisville fan. That is why I added on to my reply to him that Louisville fans are in for a long year to mess with him but he never responded. I can tell he is a Louisville fan because he has very few post and they all include Louisville and he is pessimistic about our team.
 
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