ESPN Way Too Early Top 25 for 2015-16. Guess who's #1?

[Mojocat]

From Eamonn Brennan. A brief interruption in the "next year is gonna suck!" party:

Way-Too-Early Top 25

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...ldcats-stay-atop-revised-way-too-early-top-25
1. Kentucky Wildcats
For weeks -- OK, months -- the college hoops world played over-under with the Kentucky Wildcats. That's where things stood on the night of the national championship, as Duke dropped Wisconsin -- we were just guessing. How many of the team's seven potential NBA draft entries would, for whatever reason, decide to stay? Last spring was filled with surprising returns to Lexington, after all, and those decisions turned the 2014-15 Wildcats into a 38-1 behemoth. Who would surprise us now?
No one. On April 10, all seven of the Wildcats' top scorers -- Dakari Johnson, Devin Booker, both Harrisons, Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Trey Lyles -- collectively left college basketball behind. Yet Kentucky is still No. 1, and ... wait. What?
This is hardly the open-and-shut case it was a year ago. Still, the returning trio of Alex Poythress (a senior who would have declared for the draft had he not torn his ACL this season), Tyler Ulis (arguably the best all-around point guard in the country) and Marcus Lee (a freakish interior talent) would earn slavish headlines in just about any other context. Throw in the prospects already on the board -- Skal Labissiere, the possible top pick in the 2016 NBA draft, as well as top point guard Isaiah Briscoe and shooting guard Charles Matthews -- and the prospects John Calipari is still chasing (including Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, and Thon Maker) and it's hard to imagine UK beginning the 2015-16 season with anything but very real national championship aspirations.
Even with seven players gone, a string of uncharacteristic recruiting misses throughout April, and its least-settled roster in years, Kentucky remains the default choice at No. 1. Is it the right one? We're less convinced than ever. The 2015-16 prospectus feels more volatile at the top than any in recent memory. But it's not so volatile -- and we're not so unconvinced -- that we can drop UK, either. At least not yet.

 

[RedRiverSaga]

"Even with seven players gone, a string of uncharacteristic recruiting misses throughout April, and its least-settled roster in years" - no kidding.

 

[Brando Mac]

Assuming we get Brown or Murray, we're Top 3 and a legit contender from Day 1.

If not, Top 5-10 is much more realistic and we'd be counting on a lot of things going right for us in March/April.

 

[Lumpy 2]

That can't be right. Half of this board is predicting NIT.

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

Add Brown now and Wynyard in December and they have a solid lineup.

 

[JasonS.]

That prediction is almost as nutty some of the doom and gloom ones.

 

[gracetoyou]

That can't be right. Half of this board is predicting NIT.

It's amazing to think isn't it. Insanity has taken over our fanbase.

 

[Smashcat]

I think Parrish also has UK as #1. With the current roster I think we are top 10 but don't see how you make us preseason #1.

 

[ORCAT]

It's amazing to think isn't it. Insanity has taken over our fanbase.

I'm not one of the ones predicting an NIT and feel we do have a pretty good team right now but do you really go along with an early forecast showing us as #1? Really?? Just trying to be realistic at saying where we really might/should fall in the rankings. Now, add one or two of the players still out there and we might have a totally different outlook going into the season.

 

[WildMoon]

I really want Brown. That'll go a long way to have what is arguably the most balanced team in the nation surrounded by NBA talent. That's major recipe for success.

Last 3 years been too much of unbalanced team, with Brown i like our chances BIG TIME. Maybe little soft inside, but Skal and Poythress should be quite formidable.

 

[RKulmer]

They like to keep the pressure on us and Cal so they can say we underachieved.

 

[SosaUK]

That can't be right. Half of this board is predicting NIT.

I get what you are saying but weren't we preseason #1 in Noel's year? Nobody predicted NIT that year. Stuff happens.

With that said, obviously hope it's more like 12 than 13.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Dont tell the chicken littles around here. They might go back into hiding until we lose a few.

 

[Dakota25]

I think UK is top five but I don't know about number one. If Kentucky takes care of Duke then I will say they earned number one. I would rather beat another elite team and earn the top spot.

 

[Dakota25]

I get what you are saying but weren't we preseason #1 in Noel's year? Nobody predicted NIT that year. Stuff happens.

With that said, obviously hope it's more like 12 than 13.

The Noel team was pre season number three and many were saying they should be more like top fifteen to twenty. I think they had the talent to be a top twenty team and make the tournament but Ryan Harrow didn't have the mental strength to play at UK and Noel got hurt which caused all the turmoil that year.

 

[kyfan606]

Some act as if we are going to the NIT barring bad injuries or someone not being eligible we are going to be ok next year.

 

[mj2k10]

I think Brennan is making that pick while assuming that UK gets another impact player (Brown or Murray), but I also think that many of UK's fans have become so spoiled that they underestimate the potential impact of someone like Labissiere. The attitude is "yawn..another potential #1 overall pick".

I think Labissiere is probably ahead of Karl Towns right now, at least offensively. Labissiere might not be Anthony Davis (who is?), but it's not outrageous to think he could be an All-American. If you think about it that way- "UK is adding a 7 foot All-American center to go with Ulis, Poythress, Lee, and some other talented newcomers", then it doesn't sound so crazy to at least have UK in the top 5-10, even without Brown or Murray. Add Brown or Murray (which is obviously the ideal situation), and the sky's the limit.

 

[bookerfan66]

If we land Brown I can see it.

 

[Lumpy 2]

I get what you are saying but weren't we preseason #1 in Noel's year? Nobody predicted NIT that year. Stuff happens.

With that said, obviously hope it's more like 12 than 13.

I wouldn't rank us #1 and I'm also not predicting NIT. My point was just because we miss on some recruits people start acting like we will be awful next year. We have a talented roster right now and if we add Brown or Murray we would be as talented as anyone in the country.

 

[SosaUK]

I wouldn't rank us #1 and I'm also not predicting NIT. My point was just because we miss on some recruits people start acting like we will be awful next year. We have a talented roster right now and if we add Brown or Murray we would be as talented as anyone in the country.

Oh, I completely agree. I was just stating how preseason ranking is pretty much pointless.

 

[catfaninsc]

It's amazing to think isn't it. Insanity has taken over our fanbase.

+1

 

[mj2k10]

Oh, I completely agree. I was just stating how preseason ranking is pretty much pointless.

Is it? It's actually been a slightly better indicator of postseason success than the actual seeding in the tournament.

The #1 overall seed rarely wins the tournament, but the team that wins it is usually in the top 4 of the preseason poll. Duke was #4 in 14-15, UL was #2 in 12-13, UK was #2 in 11-12, UNC was #1 in 08-09, Kansas was #4 in 07-08, Florida was #1 on 06-07. That's 6/10. If you go back further, the percentage gets better than 60% (see UNC 05, UConn 04, Maryland 02, Duke 01, Michigan St 2000, UConn 99, UK 96, UCLA 95, Arkansas 94, UNC 93, Duke 92. And so on). Cinderella (very loosely defining that as a team not in the preseason top 5) cuts down the nets about 1 in 3 years.

And beyond that, the teams that lost the title game included Wisconsin #3 last year, UK #1 in 13-14, Michigan #5 in 12-13, Michigan State #6 in 08-09, Memphis #3 in 07-08, and Ohio State # 7 in 06-07.

A high preseason ranking guarantees nothing, but it's the neighborhood you want to be in.

 

[Aike]

Add Brown now and Wynyard in December and they have a solid lineup.

Solid, huh?

Skal, Poythress, Brown, Briscoe, Ulis. Yeah, I guess that could be considered "solid."

 

[kybassfan]

I'm sorry, but I gotta laugh. We have fans with the window open ready to jump over a supposedly bare cupboard. Endless threads full of hand wringing. Despair over making the NIT in '16. And (drum roll) . . . .

ESPNs "way to early" number 1 seed. In my best, Larry the Cable Guy impression, "Now that's funny, right thar."

Common guys, there are no assurances in this business. We got as close as any team in history I can recall to being a presumptive favorite to winning the dance last year. I have no expectations that we will ever be heavier loaded than we were last season.in my life time. In spite of near perfection in the won loss column, the season finished contrary to even the most skilled analyst's expectation.

Given what we have on hand, this season does not boil down to another good recruit. This boils down to our current guys building skills, getting in impeccable condition, learning to win by using their teammates and simply settling for nothing less than the best of themselves that they can possibly be (where have I heard that before?). Lee has gotta get some love at the charity stripe. Poythress must shake off some rust. Ulis must become even better at taking his guys and trashing the other team. Willis, well I got one word for Willis: JORTS. Young rooks, this will be a short honeymoon. This season is going to difficult. We have to play crushing defense. We have to have options on offense. We have to bleed and dive with abandon for every single loose ball. If not, then we loose. In short, this year is just like any other. We gotta play basketball. And if we pick up another player or few, good for us.

As regards the coach, well, if you don't have faith in him after the last several years, then you are not capable of faith. It has never been better. It will likely never be better than now, this period of basketball at KY. There may have been better individual teams, but there has never been a period like the last few years in our history.

ESPN, the perps of a vast anti-KY conspiracy and home to all the evil sportscasters in the universe, apparently know all this better than some of us. Preseason polls are more worthless than the bits used to push them through the wire. However, this one speaks volumes and not about our team.

Crap, who forgot to queue, "My Old Kentucky Home"?

 

[cacats]

Were we ranked preseason #1 in 2012-2013 too?

 

[SosaUK]

Is it? It's actually been a slightly better indicator of postseason success than the actual seeding in the tournament.

The #1 overall seed rarely wins the tournament, but the team that wins it is usually in the top 4 of the preseason poll. Duke was #4 in 14-15, UL was #2 in 12-13, UK was #2 in 11-12, UNC was #1 in 08-09, Kansas was #4 in 07-08, Florida was #1 on 06-07. That's 6/10. If you go back further, the percentage gets better than 60% (see UNC 05, UConn 04, Maryland 02, Duke 01, Michigan St 2000, UConn 99, UK 96, UCLA 95, Arkansas 94, UNC 93, Duke 92. And so on). Cinderella (very loosely defining that as a team not in the preseason top 5) cuts down the nets about 1 in 3 years.

And beyond that, the teams that lost the title game included Wisconsin #3 last year, UK #1 in 13-14, Michigan #5 in 12-13, Michigan State #6 in 08-09, Memphis #3 in 07-08, and Ohio State # 7 in 06-07.

A high preseason ranking guarantees nothing, but it's the neighborhood you want to be in.

Oh I completely agree. I would rather be preseason number 1 or top 5 or 10 or whatever than to not be in it.

 

[ukfan041]

I'm not sure about #1, but we're easily in the top 5! #1 IF we sign JB, I can agree with that. Like many others have said, the talk of us being a possible NIT team is really silly. We already have a talented roster and what sets that roster apart is 2 dynamic PGs who can control the game. Ulis and Briscoe will be scary next year!

 

[Mojocat]

Agree that a poll this early isn't worth a whole lot, really just pushing back - via the view of a supposed objective, somewhat expert opinion - that we're in for some kind of mediocre season next year due to Newman, Zimmerman, and Diallo (sp?) going elsewhere.

The actual preseason poll, like from November, is historically a better predictor of success than is the in-season polls. Counterintuitive, I know. At least, that's a soapbox that Ken Pomeroy mounts occasionally....

 

[Federal Cat]

They like to keep the pressure on us and Cal so they can say we underachieved.

That is exactly right, I have thought that for a while, call me paranoid I guess.

 

[IUMyron]

From Eamonn Brennan. A brief interruption in the "next year is gonna suck!" party:

Way-Too-Early Top 25

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...ldcats-stay-atop-revised-way-too-early-top-25
1. Kentucky Wildcats
For weeks -- OK, months -- the college hoops world played over-under with the Kentucky Wildcats. That's where things stood on the night of the national championship, as Duke dropped Wisconsin -- we were just guessing. How many of the team's seven potential NBA draft entries would, for whatever reason, decide to stay? Last spring was filled with surprising returns to Lexington, after all, and those decisions turned the 2014-15 Wildcats into a 38-1 behemoth. Who would surprise us now?
No one. On April 10, all seven of the Wildcats' top scorers -- Dakari Johnson, Devin Booker, both Harrisons, Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Trey Lyles -- collectively left college basketball behind. Yet Kentucky is still No. 1, and ... wait. What?
This is hardly the open-and-shut case it was a year ago. Still, the returning trio of Alex Poythress (a senior who would have declared for the draft had he not torn his ACL this season), Tyler Ulis (arguably the best all-around point guard in the country) and Marcus Lee (a freakish interior talent) would earn slavish headlines in just about any other context. Throw in the prospects already on the board -- Skal Labissiere, the possible top pick in the 2016 NBA draft, as well as top point guard Isaiah Briscoe and shooting guard Charles Matthews -- and the prospects John Calipari is still chasing (including Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, and Thon Maker) and it's hard to imagine UK beginning the 2015-16 season with anything but very real national championship aspirations.
Even with seven players gone, a string of uncharacteristic recruiting misses throughout April, and its least-settled roster in years, Kentucky remains the default choice at No. 1. Is it the right one? We're less convinced than ever. The 2015-16 prospectus feels more volatile at the top than any in recent memory. But it's not so volatile -- and we're not so unconvinced -- that we can drop UK, either. At least not yet.

Keep cryin UK. IU undefeated forever! Ha ha!

 

[.S&C.]

The problem most people are having seeing that we are a top team for next year is last years team was somewhat overrated. And I take no pleasure in saying that. People really really believe it was the best _______ team ever, or the best _________ team ever. Everything they did was the best EVER! CONSTANT comparisons to the 96 team, the 12 team, the EVERY team. I still see people thinking Booker was one of the best shooters we've ever had. In reality, he was just OK. But lots of our younger fans don't want to hear it. And they are really the ones pushing this narrative on this board I would assume.

If you cannot understand that last years team was really talented and deep but not the best, then you will have a very hard time understanding next years team could be a contender. Its that simple. We were probably the 3rd best team in the country last season. For all you stat geeks, pay attention to how wrong the metrics were, mainly on the offensive end. It's not to say they were not capable of winning a championship, but they weren't the best core of college players.

I'm expecting next year to be a final four team, and If brown commits I think it should in fact be pre season n umber one. If he doesn't, its still a top 5 team. I have absolutely no problem seeing that.

 

[.S&C.]

Were we ranked preseason #1 in 2012-2013 too?

I hope you aren't comparing the teams, and I hope you realize Noel went down which sent a then ranked UK team to the NIT.

 

[ukfan041]

Keep cryin UK. IU undefeated forever! Ha ha!

1987.......

 

[Raroyder]

C'mon guys, everyone knows that ranking is ridiculous! Setting us up for failure before the season even starts. And yes, 2012-13 preseason ranking is VERY relavant. It shows how ridiculous these rankings can be.

We all know Noel did go down with an injury. SURELY those are not suggesting that we were still #1 with Noel? I guess I was the only one that watched that season. At our best, with a full and healthy roster, that team was MAYBE the 20th-25th best team in the nation. And that is being very generous considering how they played.

 

[caneintally]

Anyone not seeing Kentucky as a pre-season Top Five -- without adding anyone else -- is suffering from a failure of imagination. Envision Poythress and Lee attacking the basket in a more fluid offense fed by Ulis and Briscoe, then factor in Skal as a player with dynamic offensive skill and the ability to be an intimidating shot blocker, then imagine someone or more than one emerging from the competition among Matthews and Mulder and a veteran Willis to provide wing scoring punch, and Hawkins as a defensive specialist and adequate PG back-up. Imagine all that, then name five better teams.

MD you are consistently one of the top 5 posters on here and you yet again win the award. Rumors of our demise are HIGHLY UTTERLY EXAGGERATED . you win college due to NBA talent for the most part and we will have the most , with the exception of maybe , maybe UNC and KU . Duke has 1 big time pro and a few guys who are borderline like grayson and kennard.

 

[caneintally]

C'mon guys, everyone knows that ranking is ridiculous! Setting us up for failure before the season even starts. And yes, 2012-13 preseason ranking is VERY relavant. It shows how ridiculous these rankings can be.

We all know Noel did go down with an injury. SURELY those are not suggesting that we were still #1 with Noel? I guess I was the only one that watched that season. At our best, with a full and healthy roster, that team was MAYBE the 20th-25th best team in the nation. And that is being very generous considering how they played.

AHAHAHA , next year is on par with 2011 not 2013. IN 2013 we didn't have any guard who could hold Briscoe or Ulis' s jock and we didn't have the best pro prospect since AD which Skal is . And we didn't have a senior who was as beastly as Poy or a junior who is 1st round lock like Lee is . But lets not let facts get in the way of your ignorant ill informed view point . Now if you had said if Skal tears his ACL or if Briscoe gets Ebola then maybe it would somehow resemble 2013 but even then no , not really.

 

[.S&C.]

C'mon guys, everyone knows that ranking is ridiculous! Setting us up for failure before the season even starts. And yes, 2012-13 preseason ranking is VERY relavant. It shows how ridiculous these rankings can be.

We all know Noel did go down with an injury. SURELY those are not suggesting that we were still #1 with Noel? I guess I was the only one that watched that season. At our best, with a full and healthy roster, that team was MAYBE the 20th-25th best team in the nation. And that is being very generous considering how they played.

I understand but Im having trouble following the wisdom here.

Are you saying that that was the norm? Because it could just as easy be a fluke. So we went from pre season number one to 20-25 as you say with Noel. Not only are these two teams totally different, buts its also a completely different year in college basketball. And really that team couldn't shoot worth a lick. I still can't believe our shooting guard that year shot under 10% from the three line. Incredible. We've got Ulis, Briscoe, and now Mulder to go along with a core of super players.

Not even close to that NIT team, and Skal might be better than Noel.

 

[Poetax]

That prediction is almost as nutty some of the doom and gloom ones.

Exactly Jason. Its a lose lose for us to be looked at as #1. Lose an early game and its, oh Kentucky is not as good as we thought, duh really? This group as it stands will have a lot of work to do to be able to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament next year. I'm not saying they can't but some really big question marks are going to have to shine and be the answers that we hope they are.

 

[.S&C.]

If this team was the team returning when Tubby Smith left, people would have no problem seeing how good they are. Its attached to Cal, last years team, and top recruiting classes every year. Attatch it to 2007-2008, and no one would have a problem seeing this team as the top 5 team it is.

 

[barryn2000]

Its funny seeing all the Debbie Downers race to this thread to shoot down a poll that has UK at #1

I never thought id see the day where so many UK fans were arguing that the team is ranked too high. I guess your cred is more important.

Laughing at all of you....