ESPN only giving UK a 20% chance to win v Ole Miss

[HerrosHeroes]

That is garbage. Its bad enough that we are a TD underdog but this has to be exposed.
Who has Ole Miss defeated to warrant all this? What are they ranked and what is UK ranked? UK is getting back CRod an All SEC RB for this game. Who is Ole Miss getting back?
This is not the same ole Kentucky and everyone in the Nation finds out Sat:

Ole Miss 22-19 Kentucky (Oct 1, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF game, final score 22-19, from October 1, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[gobigbluebell]

Is this game on ESPN? I really don’t feel like throwing remotes and kicking puppies while I try to tune in to their stupid app that doesn’t work. This is the SEC game of the week and should be broadcast as such, on the SEC Network.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

RealTimeRPI.com College Football/NCAAF - College Football Power Rankings and Analysis, A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

RealTimeRPI.com College Football: Real Time NCAA College Football/NCAAF Analysis, Rankings, Schedule, Discussion, NCAAF Forums

realtimerpi.com

UK SOS 107
Ole Miss SOS 153

UKs win at Florida is twice as good as any win Ole Miss has!

 

[YaketySax]

Implied odds of the Kentucky moneyline (+210) suggests Vegas sees a 32% chance.

 

[maroon79]

My analytics say 11.637214%

 

[kl40504]

That is garbage. Its bad enough that we are a TD underdog but this has to be exposed.
Who has Ole Miss defeated to warrant all this? What are they ranked and what is UK ranked? UK is getting back CRod an All SEC RB for this game. Who is Ole Miss getting back?
This is not the same ole Kentucky and everyone in the Nation finds out Sat:

Ole Miss 22-19 Kentucky (Oct 1, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF game, final score 22-19, from October 1, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

We are getting back CRod but we still have the same offensive line to block for him. Our offensive line has not been very good up to this point. They will have to take a major step up if we are going to win at Ole Miss.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Implied odds of the Kentucky moneyline (+210) suggests Vegas sees a 32% chance.

Thats a bit better but 21% is just wrong.
If I was Stoops Id make big posters of that ESPN graph and plaster them all throughout the practice Lockeroom at UK. This program has come too far to be disrespected like this!

 

[HerrosHeroes]

My analytics say 11.637214%

You are close to being put on ignore with that crap.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

We are getting back CRod but we still have the same offensive line to block for him. Our offensive line has not been very good up to this point. They will have to take a major step up if we are going to win at Ole Miss.

Well Smoke is #20 on UKs All-time RB list while CRod is #6. Smoke has had 4 gms. to get to #20 and if CRod had those 4 games he would be in the top 5 somewhere now.
My point is we have 2 top 20 All Time UK RBs now and one of them that still has an outside shot at finishing #1.

 

[MrHotDice]

you guys want cred from past performanc. If UK beats Ole Miss they will get the SEC cred, if they don’t win ESPN was correct. Close loses and moral victories does not get you cred. Winning does so it’s put up or shut up time.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

UKs best win according to RealTime RPI is at #29 Florida (26-16).
Ole Miss best win is at “home” v #75 Tulsa (35-27).

Draw your own conclusions!
But I’ll tell you….no comparison!
This game should be a pick em at best our UK a 1-2 pt fav.
When will they learn?
Once we crack the top 5? Win the East? Win the SEC? Win the National Title?
What’s it going to take my BBB?

 

[maroon79]

You are close to being put on ignore with that crap.

I seriously hope that I am wrong

 

[YardCat]

Sounds like it’s time to make some bets and cash in on the crappy predictions. I will be there wearing my UK gear to upset the Ole Miss stripes. This would be a great win for the Cats!

 

[dyersburgcatfan]

CFN picks the Cats
30-26

 

[Freetaxreturn]

If I were guessing, I think it’s an historical outlook dynamic since Kentucky hasn’t beat an SEC west opponent on the road in however many years 🍺

 

[Blueaz]

That is garbage. Its bad enough that we are a TD underdog but this has to be exposed.
Who has Ole Miss defeated to warrant all this? What are they ranked and what is UK ranked? UK is getting back CRod an All SEC RB for this game. Who is Ole Miss getting back?
This is not the same ole Kentucky and everyone in the Nation finds out Sat:

Ole Miss 22-19 Kentucky (Oct 1, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF game, final score 22-19, from October 1, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

it's a computer picking...good grief...smh

 

[Hjack]

ESPN must think we're playing Duke. In that case, they would give us no chance.

 

[Comebakatz3]

RealTimeRPI.com College Football/NCAAF - College Football Power Rankings and Analysis, A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

RealTimeRPI.com College Football: Real Time NCAA College Football/NCAAF Analysis, Rankings, Schedule, Discussion, NCAAF Forums

realtimerpi.com

UK SOS 107
Ole Miss SOS 153

UKs win at Florida is twice as good as any win Ole Miss has!

I haven't watched a single second of any Ole Miss game this season, but just looking at their scores... they have outscored opponents 164 to 40. UK, on the other hand, has outscored our 4 opponents 125 to 52. Yes, they have played a lesser schedule than we have, but clearly their offense looks to be clicking better than ours. I don't know how Ole Miss scored all their points, but I know that UK has scored a lot of their own with the help of defense and special teams. For instance, in the Miami (OH) game we had a KO for a touchdown, recovered a fumble and only had to go 8 yards for a TD, and also got set up pretty close to field goal range thanks to a 23 yard punt return. So, in that game alone 17 of UK's 37 total were greatly helped by D/ST and not really the offense clicking and putting together long drives. In the Florida game, we got 7 from our defense with a pick 6 and then another INT put us right at the door step and we only had to go 6 yards to score. So, 14 of those 16, again, weren't instances where we drove the length and flexed our muscles on offense.

I think we can beat Ole Miss, but the offense so far has not been impressive in any game that we've played and that is concerning to me going forward. I don't think that concern is outrageous and if I am a neutral person putting money or odds on the game then I am going to take those offense concerns into account. Especially against a team and coach that has traditionally been known to be able to put up a whole lot of points.

 

[tdcat]

We are getting back CRod but we still have the same offensive line to block for him. Our offensive line has not been very good up to this point. They will have to take a major step up if we are going to win at Ole Miss.

Keep this in mind. Ole Miss plays a 3-2-6 defense with four safeties. Tulsa has played Northern Illinois and Ole Miss this year. Yes that Northern Illinois.

Against Northern Illinois, Tulsa had 37 rushes for 107 yards (2.9 per carry). Against Ole Miss, Tulsa had 43 rushes for 262 yards (6.1 per carry). CRod will get his yards.

 

[bthaunert]

I haven't watched a single second of any Ole Miss game this season, but just looking at their scores... they have outscored opponents 164 to 40. UK, on the other hand, has outscored our 4 opponents 125 to 52. Yes, they have played a lesser schedule than we have, but clearly their offense looks to be clicking better than ours. I don't know how Ole Miss scored all their points, but I know that UK has scored a lot of their own with the help of defense and special teams. For instance, in the Miami (OH) game we had a KO for a touchdown, recovered a fumble and only had to go 8 yards for a TD, and also got set up pretty close to field goal range thanks to a 23 yard punt return. So, in that game alone 17 of UK's 37 total were greatly helped by D/ST and not really the offense clicking and putting together long drives. In the Florida game, we got 7 from our defense with a pick 6 and then another INT put us right at the door step and we only had to go 6 yards to score. So, 14 of those 16, again, weren't instances where we drove the length and flexed our muscles on offense.

I think we can beat Ole Miss, but the offense so far has not been impressive in any game that we've played and that is concerning to me going forward. I don't think that concern is outrageous and if I am a neutral person putting money or odds on the game then I am going to take those offense concerns into account. Especially against a team and coach that has traditionally been known to be able to put up a whole lot of points.

What if I told you in the Central Arkansas game, Ole Miss scored 21 points the following ways:

1. Fumble recovery for a TD
2. Blocked punt recovered at the 4 yard line. Offense went 4 yards in 2 plays for a TD
3. Central Arkansas fumbled a punt at the 6 yard line, recovered by Ole Miss. 1 play for 6 yards for a TD.

And what if n the game against GaTech, the following happened:

1. Ole Miss blocked a punt and only had to go 21 yards for a TD.

Now, it’s not going to be easy to win there, but to pick apart our statistics and blindly throw out there statistics is not a good way to compare the 2.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

If I were guessing, I think it’s an historical outlook dynamic since Kentucky hasn’t beat an SEC west opponent on the road in however many years 🍺

Auburn 2009
We werent even ranked I dont believe.
This team is stocked and now that CRod is back we have playmakers all over the field on O.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

I haven't watched a single second of any Ole Miss game this season, but just looking at their scores... they have outscored opponents 164 to 40. UK, on the other hand, has outscored our 4 opponents 125 to 52. Yes, they have played a lesser schedule than we have, but clearly their offense looks to be clicking better than ours. I don't know how Ole Miss scored all their points, but I know that UK has scored a lot of their own with the help of defense and special teams. For instance, in the Miami (OH) game we had a KO for a touchdown, recovered a fumble and only had to go 8 yards for a TD, and also got set up pretty close to field goal range thanks to a 23 yard punt return. So, in that game alone 17 of UK's 37 total were greatly helped by D/ST and not really the offense clicking and putting together long drives. In the Florida game, we got 7 from our defense with a pick 6 and then another INT put us right at the door step and we only had to go 6 yards to score. So, 14 of those 16, again, weren't instances where we drove the length and flexed our muscles on offense.

I think we can beat Ole Miss, but the offense so far has not been impressive in any game that we've played and that is concerning to me going forward. I don't think that concern is outrageous and if I am a neutral person putting money or odds on the game then I am going to take those offense concerns into account. Especially against a team and coach that has traditionally been known to be able to put up a whole lot of points.

They have played no one. We at least played at UF!

 

[Comebakatz3]

They have played no one. We at least played at UF!

I am not saying they have played a tough schedule. I just look at our struggling offensive line and realize that it has held our offense back. They played 4 no ones and we played 3. In their 4 no ones, they seemingly played better offensively than we did. That is a concern and I can't fault someone for looking at that and thinking that UK could be the underdog in this one.

 

[HeartofUlis]

I can see high 60's for the home team, but 79 is a bit much for this ole Miss. They lost pieces that gave them a ten win season last year in the west, which is admittedly a tough feat no matter the out of conference/division opponents.

 

[UKUGA]

I don’t know how the FPI works, but presumably it has a lot of history baked into it. How else do you put statistical odds on a college football game week 1?

I think there are longstanding factors baked into this index that make it difficult for Kentucky to be ranked in many road SEC games at this point.

But, to the earlier poster point, it appears that Vegas gives us better than a 30% chance, which seems reasonable for a road game in the SEC against an undefeated opponent.

By contrast, we play UT at home, and FPI only gives us a 24.8% chance of winning.

I suspect that by game week, that one will be roughly even in most statistical models, but FPI will likely still have us as an underdog.

(Note: FPI also has Miss State favored against us).

 

[Old_Red]

I haven't watched a single second of any Ole Miss game this season, but just looking at their scores... they have outscored opponents 164 to 40. UK, on the other hand, has outscored our 4 opponents 125 to 52. Yes, they have played a lesser schedule than we have, but clearly their offense looks to be clicking better than ours. I don't know how Ole Miss scored all their points, but I know that UK has scored a lot of their own with the help of defense and special teams. For instance, in the Miami (OH) game we had a KO for a touchdown, recovered a fumble and only had to go 8 yards for a TD, and also got set up pretty close to field goal range thanks to a 23 yard punt return. So, in that game alone 17 of UK's 37 total were greatly helped by D/ST and not really the offense clicking and putting together long drives. In the Florida game, we got 7 from our defense with a pick 6 and then another INT put us right at the door step and we only had to go 6 yards to score. So, 14 of those 16, again, weren't instances where we drove the length and flexed our muscles on offense.

I think we can beat Ole Miss, but the offense so far has not been impressive in any game that we've played and that is concerning to me going forward. I don't think that concern is outrageous and if I am a neutral person putting money or odds on the game then I am going to take those offense concerns into account. Especially against a team and coach that has traditionally been known to be able to put up a whole lot of points.

What I can't figure out about Ole Miss, is their running game should give them the TOP edge but it doesn't. How is that?

 

[Soupbean]

That is garbage. Its bad enough that we are a TD underdog but this has to be exposed.
Who has Ole Miss defeated to warrant all this? What are they ranked and what is UK ranked? UK is getting back CRod an All SEC RB for this game. Who is Ole Miss getting back?
This is not the same ole Kentucky and everyone in the Nation finds out Sat:

Ole Miss 22-19 Kentucky (Oct 1, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF game, final score 22-19, from October 1, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

That is way off, this is a pickem game all day long and I'm a pessimistic worry wart.

 

[jlynn323]

Good! Let UK be the underdog.

 

[Fast3ddy]

Welp good run boys. Pack it up. We’ll be lucky to go bowling this year.

 

[CB3UK]

I don't understand the doom and gloom. I feel pretty damned good about Saturday. Cayts 35 Rebelettes 24

 

[DCFseattle]

Here's one thing I know about Mark Stoops's tenure here: when everybody is counting us out and our backs are against the wall, that's when we're at our best. So favor Ol Miss. Let everybody say we're overrated at #7 in the AP. Stoops ain't scared. Our boys ain't scared. And if they ain't, then goddamn it neither am I.

LFG

 

[12375CAT]

What chance did they give the Wildcats @ Oklahoma?

 

[calismyhero]

That is garbage. Its bad enough that we are a TD underdog but this has to be exposed.
Who has Ole Miss defeated to warrant all this? What are they ranked and what is UK ranked? UK is getting back CRod an All SEC RB for this game. Who is Ole Miss getting back?
This is not the same ole Kentucky and everyone in the Nation finds out Sat:

Ole Miss 22-19 Kentucky (Oct 1, 2022) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF game, final score 22-19, from October 1, 2022 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

I’m used to it. We could go 15-0 win the national championship and the first thing out of there mouths would be it was a down year in college football. I quit paying attention to them long ago. Because I know that if we play a clean game, control tempo that we stand a great chance at getting the win. We all know about Kiffin and his great offense. We know all about how we are overrated and don’t have a chance. All I see is a solid football team that will show up and compete.

 

[Tubbyfan78]

I hate to ruin a good conspiracy theory but you all realize this is just a generic analytical formula right? It’s not the people up at ESPN sitting around talking about how they can scheme and disrespect against Kentucky.

 

[hmt5000]

It just seemed like our ol played better in the second half at UF. I get the feeling they will come ready to play from the jump this week. Cats by 50.

 

[KENTUCKY_FLYER]

Cats drop this one by 6. Lots of scoring potential with Will and CRod as well as others but the The Oline is just weak enough that they cant get the edge.

 

[TNTUK]

you guys want cred from past performanc. If UK beats Ole Miss they will get the SEC cred, if they don’t win ESPN was correct. Close loses and moral victories does not get you cred. Winning does so it’s put up or shut up time.

Isn’t that what everyone said before Florida?

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

Every single person discussing the game mentions our offense.. getting back c rod .. and whether or not that will help our line play better

No one is discussing our best unit. Our defense. No one thinks our defense will have any say in this game. Our defense won the Florida game when our offense and special teams put our backs against the wall. I believe they will be why we win this game as well.

 

[hmt5000]

Every single person discussing the game mentions our offense.. getting back c rod .. and whether or not that will help our line play better

No one is discussing our best unit. Our defense. No one thinks our defense will have any say in this game. Our defense won the Florida game when our offense and special teams put our backs against the wall. I believe they will be why we win this game as well.

It's fair to say that Ole Myth hasn't faced a dline anywhere near as good as ours.

 

[rye48]

How many that pick Ole Miss also picked Florida ?