Here's a look at some of the more telling statistics as well as some numbers that help explain the numbers everyone else is talking about.
Dominating the Paint
First the obvious: Ample evidence that Eastern Kentucky was one of the more porous interior teams that Kentucky will play this year, at least on the defensive end. Not much of a challenge for the Cats in the paint. That's not to diminish UK's dominance inside because I'm sure Calipari's happy to see it against anybody after UCLA, but the lack of contested shots, the 2pt FG% and the offensive boards paint a picture that's not pretty for the Colonels.
UK was 31-45 from two point range, as we've said. That alone is a ridiculous number. If ever a guard oriented team were to post that it would be this one because of the share of points this UK team gets at the rim most games. So that number was just the season trend on steroids.
More impressive is the fact that Kentucky had 18 offensive rebounds. That's 18 offensive rebounds on 35-64 overall shooting from the floor. To be totally redundant that's 29 total missed shots and 18 of those misses were rebounded by the Cats with another scoring opportunity created. On 64 attempted shots for the game that means all but 11 shots (53-64) were makes or shots that would be second chance opportunities. UK grabbed more offensive rebounds (18) than EKU had defensive rebounds (14).
One of the more impressive aspects of last night's performance was the overall statistical balance. The numbers don't tell the whole story, of course. For instance, I think a quick look at the stat sheet gives the impression that Marcus Lee played better than he did all-around. But UK had excellent scoring balance with five players in double figures not to mention Ulis (9) and Matthews (7). But beyond that the rebounding distribution was nice; lots of guys got in on the board action. Six players had four or more rebounds and both Matthews and Hawkins chipped in with a pair apiece.
Willis and Matthews' scoring: In bunches then not at all
I haven't delved too deep into the season-long numbers but one thing I've noticed on several occasions this year is that even in games when Derek Willis and Charles Matthews make substantial scoring contributions they tend to score most (sometimes all) of their points in bunches, in relatively quick succession, but then go quiet. Really, Willis has gone cold after most of his brief scoring outbursts this year, while Matthews hasn't gone cold so much as solid.
In Matthews' case the scoring inconsistency is absolutely no cause for concern in my mind. When it comes to expectations before the season and how things are playing out Matthews has to be one of the guys that Calipari is happiest with in most respects. In time we're going to see whether Matthews is a long-term role player and complementary piece or whether he's got what it takes to develop into more of a top-tier option. He's already that valuable on defense and in the open court when he's in the game, and when you see him slashing or looking to score it's a good bet the ball's going in. The only caveat is of course that efficiency has a limited production value, because the efficiency is a byproduct of Matthews being very conservative in picking when he's going to be aggressive and attack. If he attacked more his efficiency would definitely decline.
In Willis' case I think there are more concerns than just the hot and cold shooting although for him that's crippling because he doesn't bring as much beyond his scoring punch. But this 'score in bunches then go cold' tendency has been his M.O. often this year as well. He scored 14 points in the first half of a game early in the season and I don't believe he scored at all in the second half. The very next game -- the season's second contest, this one against NJIT -- all 11 of Willis' points came in the second half.
Between the two Matthews and Willis combined for nine first half points and zero in the second frame. Against UCLA, Matthews didn't do much scoring but Willis scored all of his 11 points in the second half. Against Illinois State it was Matthews who got a lot more time (34 minutes to 10) but again the point is the two combined for almost all of their points (9 of 10) in the first half. One game prior Willis scored only two points but Matthews scored nine of his 11 in the first half. Against Duke, Wright State and Boston neither player contributed much in the way of the scoring load. In some of these cases this may result from simply playing more minutes. But that doesn't explain nearly all of it if you look at how heavily the scoring is weighted to small fractions of each game. In Willis' case he's fighting for minutes and when he gets in he's sometimes going Rambo and I'm sure it's encouraged. In Mathews' case it's a freshman who's not only picking his spots, but trying not to assume too much to carry too quickly. His assertiveness probably comes in spurts even if his poise appears to stay throughout.
I do think it's enough to say this is a trend that hasn't been mentioned. If Matthews and Willis are going to combine to play the minutes equivalent to one starter (29=combined average mpg) then even if Matthews isn't a go-to scoring option it's still true that Kentucky has to find a way to keep both players involved for the duration of their time on the court. The solution isn't the same for both because they have different tendencies; i.e. you don't have to tell Willis to shoot too often. It's Calipari's job to figure out how to press the right buttons for both players and in the heat of the moment his top concern probably isn't how to get either of these players more involved. Over time he's going to gravitate even more heavily towards Matthews (which I think is likely) or he'll continue to give comparable time to the two players (note: I know they don't play exactly the same position, but their minutes or lack thereof are related and it still affects the overall lineup; they can play alongside one another, it's just that given the obvious fact that several others dominate most of the minutes elsewhere they won't often play together, so there is a competition).
Willis does come with the added benefit (and some would say a needed aid) of long range proficiency although he hasn't been shooting well so far this year. Still, I don't sense any urgency on Calipari's part to make that more a part of their offense and Matthews' increased involvement tells me that shooting woes elsewhere aren't (yet, at least) creating more of a window for Willis.
Again, the point here is that if these two are going to play starter's minutes then you want to find a way to get more consistent production from them. That Matthews is so effective when he does have an opening tells me that if he continues to mature at a steady rate then he could take on more of a scoring load much sooner than anybody probably anticipated. That doesn't solve the shooting woes or the post issues but it'd still make the team better and it would make the players around him better, too.
That said I think we've seen enough from Matthews to believe that he can absolutely develop into much more of a crucial piece for this Kentucky team and even potentially a featured player on next year's team or beyond. He does have some limitations that I don't think have shown up quite yet. I think lacking a couple of inches will ultimately frustrate just a tad (i.e. slow, not stop) what's been an incredibly seamless transition from high school thus far.
Part of his conservative shot selection has meant avoiding three point shots almost altogether (1/4) but I'll go out on a limb and say that long-term, depending on how long Matthews' stays, he has the makings of someone who can be at least pretty good from deep. Not dead eye, but definitely someone that you can't leave wide open. Although Isaiah Briscoe's free throw struggles have been the talk of the town in part Matthews' (8/17) small sample size is probably enough to cause a little unease. I said elsewhere that I can't imagine Calipari taking Briscoe out of end of game situations often because of his physical and mental toughness as well as his decisiveness, a quality that's more important late in games than ever. Also his defense. While Matthews brings a lot of intangibles, maybe to a lesser degree than Briscoe, Matthews is probably a player that will have to prove he can hit free throws to be in the game as the clock's winding down and it's close. I don't think they can afford to play in tight moments without Briscoe but my guess is in spite of how much of a nice start he's had Calipari might be less inclined to let opponents foul Matthews, who could be the number four or five offensive option sometimes on the court.
Dominating the Paint
First the obvious: Ample evidence that Eastern Kentucky was one of the more porous interior teams that Kentucky will play this year, at least on the defensive end. Not much of a challenge for the Cats in the paint. That's not to diminish UK's dominance inside because I'm sure Calipari's happy to see it against anybody after UCLA, but the lack of contested shots, the 2pt FG% and the offensive boards paint a picture that's not pretty for the Colonels.
UK was 31-45 from two point range, as we've said. That alone is a ridiculous number. If ever a guard oriented team were to post that it would be this one because of the share of points this UK team gets at the rim most games. So that number was just the season trend on steroids.
More impressive is the fact that Kentucky had 18 offensive rebounds. That's 18 offensive rebounds on 35-64 overall shooting from the floor. To be totally redundant that's 29 total missed shots and 18 of those misses were rebounded by the Cats with another scoring opportunity created. On 64 attempted shots for the game that means all but 11 shots (53-64) were makes or shots that would be second chance opportunities. UK grabbed more offensive rebounds (18) than EKU had defensive rebounds (14).
One of the more impressive aspects of last night's performance was the overall statistical balance. The numbers don't tell the whole story, of course. For instance, I think a quick look at the stat sheet gives the impression that Marcus Lee played better than he did all-around. But UK had excellent scoring balance with five players in double figures not to mention Ulis (9) and Matthews (7). But beyond that the rebounding distribution was nice; lots of guys got in on the board action. Six players had four or more rebounds and both Matthews and Hawkins chipped in with a pair apiece.
Willis and Matthews' scoring: In bunches then not at all
I haven't delved too deep into the season-long numbers but one thing I've noticed on several occasions this year is that even in games when Derek Willis and Charles Matthews make substantial scoring contributions they tend to score most (sometimes all) of their points in bunches, in relatively quick succession, but then go quiet. Really, Willis has gone cold after most of his brief scoring outbursts this year, while Matthews hasn't gone cold so much as solid.
In Matthews' case the scoring inconsistency is absolutely no cause for concern in my mind. When it comes to expectations before the season and how things are playing out Matthews has to be one of the guys that Calipari is happiest with in most respects. In time we're going to see whether Matthews is a long-term role player and complementary piece or whether he's got what it takes to develop into more of a top-tier option. He's already that valuable on defense and in the open court when he's in the game, and when you see him slashing or looking to score it's a good bet the ball's going in. The only caveat is of course that efficiency has a limited production value, because the efficiency is a byproduct of Matthews being very conservative in picking when he's going to be aggressive and attack. If he attacked more his efficiency would definitely decline.
In Willis' case I think there are more concerns than just the hot and cold shooting although for him that's crippling because he doesn't bring as much beyond his scoring punch. But this 'score in bunches then go cold' tendency has been his M.O. often this year as well. He scored 14 points in the first half of a game early in the season and I don't believe he scored at all in the second half. The very next game -- the season's second contest, this one against NJIT -- all 11 of Willis' points came in the second half.
Between the two Matthews and Willis combined for nine first half points and zero in the second frame. Against UCLA, Matthews didn't do much scoring but Willis scored all of his 11 points in the second half. Against Illinois State it was Matthews who got a lot more time (34 minutes to 10) but again the point is the two combined for almost all of their points (9 of 10) in the first half. One game prior Willis scored only two points but Matthews scored nine of his 11 in the first half. Against Duke, Wright State and Boston neither player contributed much in the way of the scoring load. In some of these cases this may result from simply playing more minutes. But that doesn't explain nearly all of it if you look at how heavily the scoring is weighted to small fractions of each game. In Willis' case he's fighting for minutes and when he gets in he's sometimes going Rambo and I'm sure it's encouraged. In Mathews' case it's a freshman who's not only picking his spots, but trying not to assume too much to carry too quickly. His assertiveness probably comes in spurts even if his poise appears to stay throughout.
I do think it's enough to say this is a trend that hasn't been mentioned. If Matthews and Willis are going to combine to play the minutes equivalent to one starter (29=combined average mpg) then even if Matthews isn't a go-to scoring option it's still true that Kentucky has to find a way to keep both players involved for the duration of their time on the court. The solution isn't the same for both because they have different tendencies; i.e. you don't have to tell Willis to shoot too often. It's Calipari's job to figure out how to press the right buttons for both players and in the heat of the moment his top concern probably isn't how to get either of these players more involved. Over time he's going to gravitate even more heavily towards Matthews (which I think is likely) or he'll continue to give comparable time to the two players (note: I know they don't play exactly the same position, but their minutes or lack thereof are related and it still affects the overall lineup; they can play alongside one another, it's just that given the obvious fact that several others dominate most of the minutes elsewhere they won't often play together, so there is a competition).
Willis does come with the added benefit (and some would say a needed aid) of long range proficiency although he hasn't been shooting well so far this year. Still, I don't sense any urgency on Calipari's part to make that more a part of their offense and Matthews' increased involvement tells me that shooting woes elsewhere aren't (yet, at least) creating more of a window for Willis.
Again, the point here is that if these two are going to play starter's minutes then you want to find a way to get more consistent production from them. That Matthews is so effective when he does have an opening tells me that if he continues to mature at a steady rate then he could take on more of a scoring load much sooner than anybody probably anticipated. That doesn't solve the shooting woes or the post issues but it'd still make the team better and it would make the players around him better, too.
That said I think we've seen enough from Matthews to believe that he can absolutely develop into much more of a crucial piece for this Kentucky team and even potentially a featured player on next year's team or beyond. He does have some limitations that I don't think have shown up quite yet. I think lacking a couple of inches will ultimately frustrate just a tad (i.e. slow, not stop) what's been an incredibly seamless transition from high school thus far.
Part of his conservative shot selection has meant avoiding three point shots almost altogether (1/4) but I'll go out on a limb and say that long-term, depending on how long Matthews' stays, he has the makings of someone who can be at least pretty good from deep. Not dead eye, but definitely someone that you can't leave wide open. Although Isaiah Briscoe's free throw struggles have been the talk of the town in part Matthews' (8/17) small sample size is probably enough to cause a little unease. I said elsewhere that I can't imagine Calipari taking Briscoe out of end of game situations often because of his physical and mental toughness as well as his decisiveness, a quality that's more important late in games than ever. Also his defense. While Matthews brings a lot of intangibles, maybe to a lesser degree than Briscoe, Matthews is probably a player that will have to prove he can hit free throws to be in the game as the clock's winding down and it's close. I don't think they can afford to play in tight moments without Briscoe but my guess is in spite of how much of a nice start he's had Calipari might be less inclined to let opponents foul Matthews, who could be the number four or five offensive option sometimes on the court.
