I think a reasonable hope is that Kentucky can repeat their 2018, 9-3 season, and, maybe slide into the NYD6, or play on NY’s Day in the Citrus/Outback. And this (or anything better) I would consider a SPECIAL season.
I won’t curse an 8-4 season, as it would likely end with a ranking, but will be disappointed at 7-5 or less.
In my opinion, two games are extremely critical to get to 9-3.
Mizzou in the second week is very important, as it’s outcome will likely determine whether we start 3-1, or 4-0. Mizzou has lost to us 5 of the last 6, but used a physical game at home in 2020, to beat an emotionally taxed U.K. team.
The next most critical game to get to 9 regular season wins is Mississippi State on the road. Although Mark Stoops has been the most successful U.K. Coach in road games since Bear Bryant, a win in Starkville has alluded him in 4 attempts.
This series has arguably been decided by home field advantage, more than most. We all love to spout the typical ish that the home field is worth 3 points.
But the Mississippi State game, of late, makes the home field look like a bigger factor. Only the 2016 game was close, at U.K., with the Cats winning on a last second field goal. Otherwise, the home team since 2015 has won by 15 points, or more, UK winning at home in 2020, 24-2.
These two team’s are seldom major favorites against the other, but the home team typically beats the visitor by a big score.
We beat State at home in 2018, so to repeat a 9 win regular schedule, we must do it again, on the road, or find another win we did not get in ‘18, to “replace it” with.
To be blunt, I expect us to win all our OOC games, lose on the road to Georgia, and thump South Carolina in Columbia and Vandy in Nashville.
So there are 6 games I would be shocked (or very disappointed) if we lost, 1 that I would be shocked if we won, and five games that are somewhere in the middle.
We lost to our rotating West Division opponent, A & M in overtime, in 2018, so I would argue that beating LSU is not critical to achieving a 9-3 season, so long as we beat Mizzou at home and State on the road.
We also beat UF on the road in a huge early season upset, in 2018, and have reasonable hope “to hold serve” with our 2018 season, by beating them at home in ‘21.
But I would argue that a win against UF is not as critical as are wins against Mizzou and State, because should we lose to UF, we can very likely “make that one up,” by beating UT at home, the road trip loss in Knoxville in 2018 being the low point of that season. We beat UT 34-7 last year, and almost half their scholarship team (36) has hit the portal, and they are facing major NCAA sanctions for the first time in their history. Frankly, I think we beat them by 14 plus, and as result, in spite of the lopsided 40 year history, I can’t rate this game to be as critical to a 9-3 finish as I do Mizzou and State. Of the five games “somewhere in the middle,” the UT game is the likeliest win.
So, I think we can lose to LSU, and UF at home, games we might be serious dogs in, and lose to UGA on the road, and still go 9-3, achieve a National ranking in the Top 15, and play in a real good bowl.
But we really need to beat Mizzou and Mississippi State. It can be done in another fashion/scenario, but those teams provide the clearest path to a 9-3 record, or better.
I won’t curse an 8-4 season, as it would likely end with a ranking, but will be disappointed at 7-5 or less.
In my opinion, two games are extremely critical to get to 9-3.
Mizzou in the second week is very important, as it’s outcome will likely determine whether we start 3-1, or 4-0. Mizzou has lost to us 5 of the last 6, but used a physical game at home in 2020, to beat an emotionally taxed U.K. team.
The next most critical game to get to 9 regular season wins is Mississippi State on the road. Although Mark Stoops has been the most successful U.K. Coach in road games since Bear Bryant, a win in Starkville has alluded him in 4 attempts.
This series has arguably been decided by home field advantage, more than most. We all love to spout the typical ish that the home field is worth 3 points.
But the Mississippi State game, of late, makes the home field look like a bigger factor. Only the 2016 game was close, at U.K., with the Cats winning on a last second field goal. Otherwise, the home team since 2015 has won by 15 points, or more, UK winning at home in 2020, 24-2.
These two team’s are seldom major favorites against the other, but the home team typically beats the visitor by a big score.
We beat State at home in 2018, so to repeat a 9 win regular schedule, we must do it again, on the road, or find another win we did not get in ‘18, to “replace it” with.
To be blunt, I expect us to win all our OOC games, lose on the road to Georgia, and thump South Carolina in Columbia and Vandy in Nashville.
So there are 6 games I would be shocked (or very disappointed) if we lost, 1 that I would be shocked if we won, and five games that are somewhere in the middle.
We lost to our rotating West Division opponent, A & M in overtime, in 2018, so I would argue that beating LSU is not critical to achieving a 9-3 season, so long as we beat Mizzou at home and State on the road.
We also beat UF on the road in a huge early season upset, in 2018, and have reasonable hope “to hold serve” with our 2018 season, by beating them at home in ‘21.
But I would argue that a win against UF is not as critical as are wins against Mizzou and State, because should we lose to UF, we can very likely “make that one up,” by beating UT at home, the road trip loss in Knoxville in 2018 being the low point of that season. We beat UT 34-7 last year, and almost half their scholarship team (36) has hit the portal, and they are facing major NCAA sanctions for the first time in their history. Frankly, I think we beat them by 14 plus, and as result, in spite of the lopsided 40 year history, I can’t rate this game to be as critical to a 9-3 finish as I do Mizzou and State. Of the five games “somewhere in the middle,” the UT game is the likeliest win.
So, I think we can lose to LSU, and UF at home, games we might be serious dogs in, and lose to UGA on the road, and still go 9-3, achieve a National ranking in the Top 15, and play in a real good bowl.
But we really need to beat Mizzou and Mississippi State. It can be done in another fashion/scenario, but those teams provide the clearest path to a 9-3 record, or better.
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