Defensive improvements between years 1 & 2, and what to expect in year 3

[Rhavicc]

I decided to do a little research today, found some things that point the the improvement of the team, and what my estimation of the stats will be next season, so let's start!

3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
Let's be real here, and be very clear. If you can't stop teams on 3rd downs, you minimize your chances to win games.
In 2013, Kentucky was dead last in the FBS at stopping teams on 3rd down, allowing a conversion rate of 52.30% for offenses on 3rd down.
In 2014, Kentucky improved exponentially, allowing 43.9% on 3rd down. For a couple of references, Florida State (without Stoops, who is now our coach obviously), was tied with UK in that department in 2014, and also for reference, in 2012, Stoops' FSU defense had a 3rd down conversion pct defense of 35.03%. The following year, after he left, and the players were experienced, the 3rd down conversion pct defense was 27.27%, before falling off in 2014.
My estimation of UK's 3rd down percentage defense, will be close to the 35% mark that Stoops seen in year 3 at Florida State as well. Kentucky is seeing solid, steady improvement here, and with the number of veterans on our defense, the terrific coaching, and an outstanding S&C program, I think that's a realistic goal.

Turnover Margin
Very important to turn teams over. This was the difference in us winning 3-4 games last season, and winning 5 games, with the potential to win 7.
Kentucky was one of the best teams in the country regarding turnover margin last season, ranked 19th in the country (2nd in the SEC behind Georgia), gaining 23 turnovers, and losing 15 of them.
The year before? In 2013, Kentucky gained 12 turnovers, and lost 16 of them, which had UK ranked 84th in the country (11th in the SEC). It made greater improvements than any team in the SEC, and returning the bulk of the secondary (all but Tiller), and building depth, I expect UK to capitalize on their 23 gained turnovers, and get closer to the 28-30 mark this season.
Offensively, we return the vast majority of our offense. I expect Mikel Horton to take care of the ball more effectively when he gets his reps, but he won't get as many, as Boom Williams has been labelled as "the guy" by the staff. Bad news is, I expect Boom to have more fumbles, and fumbles lost, as he gets more reps. Good news is, he only fumbled the ball once last season in 74 carries and 17 receptions, and he didn't turn the ball over on the fumble that he had. I also expect Patrick Towles to get roughly the same number of interceptions on the season, but have 30 TD's in the process, so all is well there. If he can hold onto the ball, I think we're looking at the offense turning the ball over for a total of 15 or so times (albeit, with more possessions and a faster tempo, so more TD's on those 15 turnovers), which should put UK in the top 10 in the country in this category next season, which is where the Oregons, Baylors, TCUs, Michigan States, and Georgias of the world reside.

Passing Efficiency Defense
Since our linebackers have beefed up and we're getting all of the glowing reports that we have regarding our front seven, this has been the root of many UK fans concerns, but UK has improved a lot in this department. Not only did we improve on interceptions between 2013 and 2014 by about +15, but Kentucky is simply defensing the pass better.
In 2013, Kentucky ended the season with a passing efficiency defense of 146.56, which ranked 100th in the country, and 13th in the SEC (just barely ahead of Arkansas).
In 2014, Kentucky ended the season with a passing efficiency defense of 126.55, which ranked 57th in the country, and 11th in the SEC.
I know what many are thinking: "11th in the SEC, not an SEC pass defense"
Well, it could be better, and it will be, for sure (when you have coaches like Stoops and Ansley coaching the secondary, there's no way that it doesn't improve). But that doesn't mean it's not on par with several teams in the SEC. It's just ahead of Texas A&M, a fair margin ahead of South Carolina, and miles ahead of Vandy, but it's just below Auburn, and Arkansas, and a fair margin behind Mizzou. Other very good teams had similar passing efficiency defense. Oregon, UCLA, Kansas State, Baylor, and Florida State to name a few.

 

[Rhavicc]

Red Zone Defense
This is my real issue with our defense, and the funny thing is, I'm not even mad about how our players hold up against the rush in the red zone. Out of the 44 attempts to defend the red zone, Kentucky allowed 15 rushing touchdowns. I would like to see that number go down to 10, 11, or 12, which is a possibility with our experienced, beefed up defense, but the 15 red zone rushing TD's was on par with some of the top teams in the country at defending the red zone. Mississippi State led the country in this category, and they allowed 14 rushing TD's in the same number of attempted defenses. Auburn ranked 13th in the country here, and they allowed 19 rushing TD's in 54 attempted defenses. Florida State ranked 19th in the country, and they also allowed 19 rushing TD's in 52 attempted defenses.
Now my issue with our red zone defense? The red zone pass. It's kinda comical, having one of the elite safety corps in the SEC, having the one of the best pass protection linebackers in the SEC in Josh Forrest, and allowing 15 passing TD's in the red zone. That's unacceptable, and that is why Stoops brought in four very long, very athletic CB's for this season.
Reality is, the CB's that we've had the past couple of years, they're simply not big enough to stop passes in the red zone. With the glowing reviews that our new CB's have already received, I imagine that they could all make an immediate impact in this department.
The positive thing here is that teams can have a dramatically quick turnaround year-to-year.
Use Mississippi State as an example. In 2013, they allowed 13 rushing TD's, 10 passing TD's, and 12 field goals in 44 attempted defenses. In 2014, they allowed 14 rushing TD's, 5 passing TD's, and 9 field goals in 44 attempted defenses, and that made them the best in the country at defending the red zone.
Kentucky has the potential to be a very good red zone defensive team with the addition of the long, tall, athletic CB's, and the experience of our safeties and linebackers, we can improve on the 15 rushing TD's, 15 passing TD's, and 11 field goals made.
I think a realistic expectation for improvements in this department next season would be 12 rushing TD's, 8 passing TD's, and 14 field goals made. I truly believe that the new CB's, and an expanded playbook will improve the red zone defense in a big way.

Defensive TD's
Kentucky is right where it needs to be in this department. #2 in the country (#1 in the SEC) at converting turnovers into touchdowns without playing a down of offense in the process. Last season, UK scored 6 defensive TD's. A lot of that can be attributed to the S&C program, as well as having some pretty crafty linebackers and safeties in the open field.
It will be difficult for UK to maintain this number, but they could come close. As mentioned, the linebackers (namely Forrest) and safeties in UK's defense have terrific ball skills, and thanks to the S&C program's "big athlete" approach, where they have our linemen on both sides of the ball work out with receivers or DB's from time to time, and some outstanding coaching from Brumbaugh to boot, our linemen are pretty savvy when it comes to deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage.
The part where UK may not be able to capitalize is when it comes to the pass rush. At this time, it's unknown whether or not we will have somebody get in the backfield like Dupree could (I think Ware could possibly do it at times, as he's already regarded as the pass rusher for this team, and he has violent hand fighting techniques, which could help him cause more havoc in the backfield than Bud could at certain times while trying to physically man-handle some players). If players can get in the backfield and get the ball out of the QB's hands before his arm starts moving forward, we could possibly get a couple of defensive TD's in that fashion this season. A lot to be happy about here though. Will predict 4-5 defensive TD's for next season.

Rushing Defense
Some may say that UK regressed from 2013 to 2014 in this category, but I'll disagree with it. While 4.02 is better to hold RB's to than 4.49 is, I'm happier with the 20 rushing TD's allowed than the 25 rushing TD's allowed in 2013. Maybe that's due to the red zone rushing defense improving, because Kentucky allowed just as many explosive rushing touchdowns as they did in 2013 (5 rushing TD's for 20+ yards), but at any rate, it needs to improve, and I think now that our linebacking corps is beefed up, it will.
If Kentucky plays the run like they did against Louisville last season, we could be in good shape. I would like to see several numbers come down, and I think we will, again, due to the new-found depth, size, speed, and the coaches we have guiding them and calling plays.
Realistically, I think we could expect the run defense to allow 16 rushing TD's on the season, and 3.70 - 3.85 yards per carry. I believe that the yards per carry worsened due to losing an inside linebacker presence like Avery Williamson, and I think in Josh Forrest's senior year, with the experience he has, and the extra 22 pounds of weight on him, and a ton of time in our S&C program, we'll have that kind of presence again, but now with more talent around him to help carry the load, and a bigger playbook to work with.
For those who doubt that Josh Forrest could be that kind of presence, consider that last year, he was in on most plays between the tackles, and many plays outside of the tackles, but his biggest downfall was missing tackles. Despite that, he was 2nd in the SEC last season in solo tackles (63), 10th in the SEC in assisted tackles (47), and 5th in the SEC in total tackles (110). I believe now, he's going to have the ability to read and react faster (the coaches have actually already said that he improved quite a bit in this regard), and with him being up to 255# and being a terrific athlete, he'll be able to make even more solo and assisted tackles closer to the line of scrimmage.

If you all couldn't tell, I'm very excited about the future of our defense. I feel like we're taking steps in the right direction in many categories, and recruiting the necessary personnel to maximize the defense's effectiveness. With the playmakers that Kentucky has on offense, I think we could have a terrific year next season with an even better year in 2016!

 

[Levibooty]

We were 44th in Passing eff. defense and 89th in rush defense. That is a huge discrepancy between the two.

 

[jnewc2]

Pretty good breakdown..I'd just add that those passing defense numbers start to become a little bit skewed because when a team is running the ball for basically 7 yards a pop every time they touch it like they were able to do against us in SEC play last season..it makes it next to impossible to stop a team when they finally decide to pull up and pass the ball, even if you're a REALLY good DB

There's a reason so many great coaches say the key to success in football is running the ball and stopping the run..look at Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia

I mean look back at these rushing yards we gave up in SEC play:

SCAR: 282 yards (5.8 yds/carry)
MSST: 326 yards (6.3 yds/carry)
GA: 305 yards (7.82 yds/carry)
FLA: 237 yards
LSU: 303 yards (6 yds/carry)

(Maybe some of you can see why when the pass defense is brought up it's hard for me to get too focused on it considering the rush defense last season..it's like pointing out a sprained ankle on your right leg when you have a fracture with a bone sticking out of your left leg...we have to handle first things first, and rush-D DEFINITELY has to be handled before we even begin to think about pass-D)

That's just a ridiculous number of rushing yards that we gave up...and look at that average..6 or 7 yards a pop on average...looking back we were actually lucky to win as many games as we did (and even be as close in as many games as we were) considering how bad that rush defense was...for those that maybe don't follow college football closely or the numbers closely, those numbers might not mean much to you, but I'm placing emphasis on them because they weren't only bad, they were historically bad for UK and you just can't win SEC games on a consistent basis giving up those kind of rushing yards..when a team rushes like that they completely control the pace of the game and keep your offense off the field..for perspectives sake..Boom averaged around 6 yards a carry last season (which is really, really high) and was the second in the SEC in the category behind only Nick Chubb..heck, there were 4 or 5 separate games where we were giving up over 6 yards a carry..that's just a gaudy number that you rarely ever see, and when you give up that many rushing yards the other team's passing game is going to be wide open and that much harder to defend. When I watched the replay of that South Carolina game I mean it was like pulling teeth watching our rush defense..they were literally just running the ball at will like I've never seen a team be able to do and we weren't even able to slow it down (even with the best pair of defensive ends in the league helping out).

The bottom line is that I know that DB's need to improve just like everyone else on the team, BUT before we even BEGIN to start concerning ourself with the pass defense we need to really worry about improving what was a historically bad rush defense, because if we don't, it's not going to matter how good the pass defense is I'm telling you

Honestly, the SEC is a league that lives and dies with the front-7..I know Stoops harps on the secondary because he's an old secondary coach and that's his baby that he's going to focus the bulk of his attention on regardless of whether we have the worst defensive line in the nation..but the fact of the matter is if you have a good front-7, it can literally almost completely make up for a bad secondary. Look at Mississippi State last year..they had one of the worst secondary's in the league, yet because of their front-7 they had a chance to dominate defensively against most teams. If you can't stop (or slow down) the run, then you're not going to be able to stop the pass..I don't care if you have Richard Sherman and Darrell Revis at both corners. I'm much more anxious to see how we do in the front-7 this year, because if we can do a decent job of slowing the run & getting pressure on the passer, we have the horses in the secondary to do a decent job of stopping the pass.

Honestly, the DB's are almost a moot point right now considering how bad that rush defense was last year..I expect the rush defense to be better this year..mainly because we'll have better LB play, we'll have better interior DT play and we'll have added experience and depth overall..but we just have to improve and improve dramatically in that rush defense area if we want to have a chance of even having a mediocre defense..I know with Stoops being a defensive guy he has to just hate how bad the rush defense was last season, and I trust that's an area we'll see quite a bit of improvement this year

 

[hmt5000]

i think the pass defense was rated better because teams could run the ball at will against us sometimes. i expect the run D to improve significantly this year and pass D to improve only slightly because of more attempts by our opponents. i also think our O can take a whole lot of pressure off our D by getting rid of the 3 and outs and moving the ball past midfield at a much higher rate... also we have to force teams to throw against us to "keep up" with our tempo. most teams on our schedule are qb challenged and if we put them in a situation where they "have" to pass then we should get more int's and sacks. if we let them dictate then our sack total probably drops this year and int's stay about the same. we have to score td's and not punt and kick fg's.

if we average just 1 more td/game this year and give up just 3 points less/game then we probably win 6 with a chance at 7. if we can get above +7 on O and -4 or more on D then we could be looking at maybe winning 8.

 

[Rhavicc]

I understand, and as I said, with us having a beefed up, more experienced front 7 (and really, two very explosive and pretty physical safeties), I see no reason that the run defense can't improve, but I'll disagree that our pass defense numbers are skewed.

South Carolina has a very good passing offense, and they lost that game to Kentucky because they stopped doing the one thing that was working for them (running the football).
South Carolina ranked 20th in the nation in passing offense, and for the season, they maintained a passing efficiency of 140.12.
In the game against Kentucky, South Carolina had a pass efficiency rating of 104.35 due to having 1 passing TD, and 3 interceptions.

LSU ran the football out of necessity, they don't have a QB. 7 completions on 15 attempts, they had a pass efficiency rating of 122.54, which comes from 1 TD and 1 interception, but still, 1 interception in 15 passes, pretty good.

Mississippi State had a pass efficiency rating of 113.47. Dak Prescott had a 54% completion percentage (he averaged 61% for the season), had 1 passing TD, but also had 1 interception.

Mizzou had a pass efficiency rating of 116.30. Had 2 TD's with no interceptions, also threw for 54.5% while throwing 5.0 yards per attempt.

Vanderbilt had a pass efficiency rating of 36.56, 0 TD's with 3 interceptions, had a 32% completion percentage.

Of those:
Vanderbilt was almost held to a season low passing efficiency by Kentucky. Ole Miss was the only team to hold them to worse at 36.16%, 24% comp pct., 0 TD's, 1 interception. Who held them to the 3rd lowest in SEC play? Mississippi State with 77.87 pass efficiency rating (they picked Vandy off twice, and beat them 51-0)

Mississippi State had 3rd worst passing performance all season against UK. Prescott threw 3 interceptions against Auburn (they also intercept the ball a lot, much like UK), and Alabama. Aside from those, his 4th worst passing performance of the season came against Ole Miss, where he had a pass efficiency rating of 132.40, and then his 5th worst coming against Arkansas with a pass efficiency rating of a whopping 167.06

South Carolina had their 2nd worst passing game of the season against UK, with the only worse performance coming against South Carolina. UK held Dylan Thompson to a pass efficiency rating of 104.35. His third worst came against Mizzou (115.40), and 4th worst came against Clemson (120.70), who has the #1 pass defense in the country.

UK held LSU to one of their worst passing percentages of the season (only behind Alabama and Auburn, and 1% lower than what Florida held them to percentage-wise).

To say that UK can't defend the pass is silly, when so many teams have struggled to pass well against Kentucky.

Also, as bad as Kentucky was against the run at times, it's not like teams ran it on Kentucky more than they did anybody else.
Teams ran it against Ole Miss more than they did UK, and Ole Miss' run defense was wayyyy better than Kentucky's. Teams also ran the ball on TCU more, they ran it on Georgia more, and they ran it on Washington more.
What do all of those teams have in common? Well, Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss, TCU, and Washington all intercept the football a lot, and all of those teams have some of the best turnover margins in all of college football. They cause turnovers and they take care of the football. Not something that you want to walk into as a coach, and really, Interceptions happen more frequently than lost fumbles do, it's just safer to run the football.
Did it help teams that they were able to put up so many yards against Kentucky in the run game? Of course, but that's not the sole purpose for them running the football, and those teams don't run the football on UK any more than they do on those other teams with good pass defenses, even if they did have elite run defenses.
If Kentucky merely shortens the yards per carry, and improves its red zone rush defense, which is responsible for 75% of the points from rushing touchdowns against UK, then the defense will improve dramatically.

 

[C1180]

UKs Inside Backers must make their tackles closer to the LOS. A lot of those tackles by Forrest and Flanagan were after the RBs already had big gains. That is why the yards per carry are so inflated.

You look at their tackle numbers and you think that is great but they gave up too much yardage before contact.

Another thing is Dupree was a very talented OLB but he was not particularly good at setting the edge and or stopping the outside runs and Smith got blocked way too often.

IMO if the UK defense is to improve it must avoid so many players being blocked completely out of plays.

 

[RV2]

... It made greater improvements than any team in the SEC, and returning the bulk of the secondary (all but Tiller), and building depth, I expect UK to capitalize on their 23 gained turnovers, and get closer to the 28-30 mark this season...

Tiller does return, a fact bemoaned by many but not me. You probably meant Nate Willis.

Excellent write ups BTW.

 

[Rhavicc]

Tiller does return, a fact bemoaned by many but not me. You probably meant Nate Willis.

Excellent write ups BTW.

My mistake, but good eye! Appreciate it.

UKs Inside Backers must make their tackles closer to the LOS. A lot of those tackles by Forrest and Flanagan were after the RBs already had big gains. That is why the yards per carry are so inflated.

You look at their tackle numbers and you think that is great but they gave up too much yardage before contact.

Another thing is Dupree was a very talented OLB but he was not particularly good at setting the edge and or stopping the outside runs and Smith got blocked way too often.

IMO if the UK defense is to improve it must avoid so many players being blocked completely out of plays.

I think this is where Forrest and Flannigan finally having a lot of experience, and being in the right positions during plays will pay off. Like I said, they're going to be able to read and react to plays more effectively, and make tackles closer to the LOS. We'll have that Avery Williamson-like presence up the middle again, only now he will be surrounded by talented players.

Will also agree that while Bud was a very good pass rusher, he wasn't outstanding in the run game.

 

[RV2]

I have less confidence in Forrest being that run game enforcer although I do believe he will have a very good year and likely lead us in tackles. I do think his pass coverage abilities will balance out some of his (expected by me) run deficiencies and I also think his abilities in pass coverage will give him a long career in the pros.

Flannigan should be very solid overall. So solid that it could free up Henderson to get some time at the Sam LB position where we need help the first couple of games.

 

[C1180]

My mistake, but good eye! Appreciate it.



I think this is where Forrest and Flannigan finally having a lot of experience, and being in the right positions during plays will pay off. Like I said, they're going to be able to read and react to plays more effectively, and make tackles closer to the LOS. We'll have that Avery Williamson-like presence up the middle again, only now he will be surrounded by talented players.

Will also agree that while Bud was a very good pass rusher, he wasn't outstanding in the run game.

Lets all hope that Forrest and Flanagan are both more instinctive in their play this year and can corral the runners before they are 5 yards down field. My math tells me two 5 yard runs is a first down. Heck when you get that first 5 yard run it puts you in 2nd and short and opens the playbook wide open. IMO a perfect time for the opposing QB to take a shot down field especially if you have been doing two running plays with good results and have the SS creeping up in run support.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

Not a prediction, just an observation. The way Stoops talks about his defense is dramatically different this year.

 

[Rhavicc]

Not a prediction, just an observation. The way Stoops talks about his defense is dramatically different this year.

I've gotten the same vibe. He seems genuinely excited about his defense. Elliot also suggests that the ability of the starting lineup is where he wants it to be, but he just wants to build depth, be able to get the 2nd and 3rd string guys into the positions they need to be in during plays.

 

[BlueTick2]

Not a prediction, just an observation. The way Stoops talks about his defense is dramatically different this year.

It better be "dramatically different" or it's going to be a long season.

 

[Rhavicc]

It better be "dramatically different" or it's going to be a long season.

If you won't listen to the staff regarding how the defense looks, you won't listen to anybody.

 

[railroadkat_1]

If you won't listen to the staff regarding how the defense looks, you won't listen to anybody.

Rhavicc excellent analysis on your coverage. You left out an important one though. Special teams and field position. I like the fact most of the staff will have part of coaching special teams. We have a dynamic field goal kicker that from 50 yards in has a very good chance of splitting the goal post.

UK has to have better kick-off coverage and knock some opponents into the turf. Not only do we have SEC caliber size but SEC speed and I'm looking forward to that. No more kick-offs for touchdowns from opponents . Take advantage of field position and utilize a short field.

 

[BlueTick2]

If you won't listen to the staff regarding how the defense looks, you won't listen to anybody.

After following UK FB for 50 years now
I want to see and not listen.

 

[WildCard]

Interesting breakdown Rhavicc. It is hard enough to project W/L records without getting into the details of stats. For those who "project improvements" I always recommend doing some sort of sanity check of their numbers. By that I mean, as a minimum, compare your "projection" with the historical year to year changes in that metric. For example, if you are "projecting" a 9% improvement in 3rd down defense, how many teams actually improve by 9% in a year (i.e., is your projection a "feasible" number). FWIW, I don't believe you can draw much from the improvement trend lines at FSU and similar lines at UK due to the talent differential. FSU has always had good talent but Andrews and Bowden were simply not doing much with it in their final years...it was time for a change.

Phil Steele tries to do some basic projected stats driven primarily by numbers. For UK he is projecting 184 yards rushing allowed, 219 Yards passion allowed and 31.1 PPG allowed. The 2014 actual numbers were 191, 216 and 31.3 respectively. he projects a net YPG improvement go 19.5 yards which is #68 nationally in this metric.

Peace

 

[Tskware]

Rhavicc said: ↑
If you won't listen to the staff regarding how the defense looks, you won't listen to anybody.

After following UK FB for 50 years now
I want to see and not listen.

X2

I do not have any trouble believing, that like a championship baseball team, we will be strong up the middle, DT, MLB, and Safety look to me to have size, experience with some talented players, e.g., Stamps, who is a baller. Really looking forward to seeing West and Edwards play as well. Or we should at least be a lot stronger up the middle than in recent seasons.

The $64 question in my mind is how we are going to put pressure on QBs without Z, Bud, and Hatcher now suspended for the first two games has not helped at all. CB is still a huge question to me as well. I can unfortunately very easily envision opposing QBs having all day long to throw the ball. The prospect of seniors who have played little in their career, RS freshmen who have yet to see the field, and fairly lightly regarded JUCOs all trying to play DE and trying to mount a legitimate pass rush is not filling me with optimism.

But as another poster said, if we don't fix the run defense, pass defense will not matter. (And for the record, we ALWAYS say it has to be better this year . . . . but hardly ever is)

 

[Rhavicc]

Interesting breakdown Rhavicc. It is hard enough to project W/L records without getting into the details of stats. For those who "project improvements" I always recommend doing some sort of sanity check of their numbers. By that I mean, as a minimum, compare your "projection" with the historical year to year changes in that metric. For example, if you are "projecting" a 9% improvement in 3rd down defense, how many teams actually improve by 9% in a year (i.e., is your projection a "feasible" number). FWIW, I don't believe you can draw much from the improvement trend lines at FSU and similar lines at UK due to the talent differential. FSU has always had good talent but Andrews and Bowden were simply not doing much with it in their final years...it was time for a change.

Phil Steele tries to do some basic projected stats driven primarily by numbers. For UK he is projecting 184 yards rushing allowed, 219 Yards passion allowed and 31.1 PPG allowed. The 2014 actual numbers were 191, 216 and 31.3 respectively. he projects a net YPG improvement go 19.5 yards which is #68 nationally in this metric.

Peace

The improvements are on par with a number of teams. While FSU was one example used, I think FSU reached their defensive ceiling with Stoops' defensive unit the year that he arrived at UK, and those players were going into their 4th year with that defensive system. It was when those players left that FSU's defense fell off in 2014.
There are multiple similar trend lines though, from teams that recruit similar talent to UK. Baylor being one good example, going from having an abysmal defense to having probably the 2nd best defense in the Big XII, behind TCU.

As it pertains to the improvement in 3rd down percentage defense, 9% was the improvement that UK had from year one to year two, and I estimated 35% (an 8% improvement) to be the ceiling in year 3, but if I had to pick more conservatively, I'm going to say that there will be at least a 6% improvement between 2014 and 2015.

I believe until UK's defense becomes more talented and deeper, it will not be able to maintain much more effectiveness than that in 3rd down situations, but if UK can pull in more four-star players, and the occasional five-star player, I think they can get closer to that 27% that Florida State had. Based on UK's recruiting rankings, and the reports we're hearing already, 2017 might be Kentucky's best defensive year if I had to guess right now, but that's a couple years away.

I also believe coaching plays a huge role. Florida State fell off last season, as I mentioned, from their 2013 season in this department (they were 3rd in the country), they went from having 27.27 3rd down pct defense, to having a 43.9 third down pct defense in 2014 (ironically, the same percentage as UK), while not having any real talent drop-off according to recruiting rankings, and honestly, recruiting better in the 2014 class than they did in the 2013 class. Experience, physical and mental growth, and good coaching points to UK having a very real possibility of improving as much.

As for the number of teams that had such an increase in effectiveness, (close to an 8% jump) between the 2013-14 season:

West Virginia: from 45.6% to 31.4% (WVU is less talented than UK, per recruiting rankings, as well as Coach Dawson)
Nebraska: from 37.14% to 30.01%
Duke: from 41.76 to 34.4%
Louisville: from 41.67% to 31.8%
Mississippi State: from 42.08% to 35.1%

Those are all teams from that, over the past few classes (exception of Louisville, and in some rankings, Duke in this past class), have reeled in worse, or similarly ranked talent to Kentucky over the past 3 years or so, and have made big improvements to get within that 35% 3rd down pct defense range.

Also, each of UK's defensive coaches have terrific pedigrees. In year 3 at each of Stoops' DC stops (Arizona [less talented that UK], and Florida State [more talented than UK]), he's converted those teams into top 25 defenses.
I truly find no reason that the defense couldn't improve as I figure that they will.

 

[Rhavicc]

After following UK FB for 50 years now
I want to see and not listen.

In your 50 years of following UK FB, have they ever, at any point, been as committed to building the program as they are now, and has there ever been as much interest to players coming out of high school, in going to play football at UK?
My guess is no.

 

[BlueTick2]

In your 50 years of following UK FB, have they ever, at any point, been as committed to building the program as they are now, and has there ever been as much interest to players coming out of high school, in going to play football at UK?
My guess is no.

n how much commitment

In your 50 years of following UK FB, have they ever, at any point, been as committed to building the program as they are now, and has there ever been as much interest to players coming out of high school, in going to play football at UK?
My guess is no.

Your guess is correct!
However, I have watched teams like Tennessee, as a example,have great players and facilities yet only to fail.
All the positives you point out are correct. Will it equate to winning, only time will tell.
Back to your post. It makes a great case for a much improved defense.
But then again our defense sucked so bad last year the only way to go was up.
As far as interest from players coming out of high school, only winning will keep that interest alive.
The current excitement reminds me of the early years of Claiborne and Curry.
I do truly hope UK starts to compete on the big stage, I'm running out of time.

 

[Rhavicc]

n how much commitment

Your guess is correct!
However, I have watched teams like Tennessee, as a example,have great players and facilities yet only to fail.
All the positives you point out are correct. Will it equate to winning, only time will tell.
Back to your post. It makes a great case for a much improved defense.
But then again our defense sucked so bad last year the only way to go was up.
As far as interest from players coming out of high school, only winning will keep that interest alive.
The current excitement reminds me of the early years of Claiborne and Curry.
I do truly hope UK starts to compete on the big stage, I'm running out of time.

Ah, it could have went down. I think the only way it could have went was up in 2013, and they did just that, but moving from near the bottom of the country in a lot of categories to the middle of the country, in most categories, and in a couple of other categories, they were among the best in the country.
I just believe that based on what the coaches say, and honestly, what every reporter that has watched them has said, they'll be quite a bit better overall, and due to the experience that we have on defense, we'll be more consistent with whatever level of success that we have next season.

 

[jnewc2]

I understand, and as I said, with us having a beefed up, more experienced front 7 (and really, two very explosive and pretty physical safeties), I see no reason that the run defense can't improve, but I'll disagree that our pass defense numbers are skewed.

South Carolina has a very good passing offense, and they lost that game to Kentucky because they stopped doing the one thing that was working for them (running the football).
South Carolina ranked 20th in the nation in passing offense, and for the season, they maintained a passing efficiency of 140.12.
In the game against Kentucky, South Carolina had a pass efficiency rating of 104.35 due to having 1 passing TD, and 3 interceptions.

LSU ran the football out of necessity, they don't have a QB. 7 completions on 15 attempts, they had a pass efficiency rating of 122.54, which comes from 1 TD and 1 interception, but still, 1 interception in 15 passes, pretty good.

Mississippi State had a pass efficiency rating of 113.47. Dak Prescott had a 54% completion percentage (he averaged 61% for the season), had 1 passing TD, but also had 1 interception.

Mizzou had a pass efficiency rating of 116.30. Had 2 TD's with no interceptions, also threw for 54.5% while throwing 5.0 yards per attempt.

Vanderbilt had a pass efficiency rating of 36.56, 0 TD's with 3 interceptions, had a 32% completion percentage.

Of those:
Vanderbilt was almost held to a season low passing efficiency by Kentucky. Ole Miss was the only team to hold them to worse at 36.16%, 24% comp pct., 0 TD's, 1 interception. Who held them to the 3rd lowest in SEC play? Mississippi State with 77.87 pass efficiency rating (they picked Vandy off twice, and beat them 51-0)

Mississippi State had 3rd worst passing performance all season against UK. Prescott threw 3 interceptions against Auburn (they also intercept the ball a lot, much like UK), and Alabama. Aside from those, his 4th worst passing performance of the season came against Ole Miss, where he had a pass efficiency rating of 132.40, and then his 5th worst coming against Arkansas with a pass efficiency rating of a whopping 167.06

South Carolina had their 2nd worst passing game of the season against UK, with the only worse performance coming against South Carolina. UK held Dylan Thompson to a pass efficiency rating of 104.35. His third worst came against Mizzou (115.40), and 4th worst came against Clemson (120.70), who has the #1 pass defense in the country.

UK held LSU to one of their worst passing percentages of the season (only behind Alabama and Auburn, and 1% lower than what Florida held them to percentage-wise).

To say that UK can't defend the pass is silly, when so many teams have struggled to pass well against Kentucky.

Also, as bad as Kentucky was against the run at times, it's not like teams ran it on Kentucky more than they did anybody else.
Teams ran it against Ole Miss more than they did UK, and Ole Miss' run defense was wayyyy better than Kentucky's. Teams also ran the ball on TCU more, they ran it on Georgia more, and they ran it on Washington more.
What do all of those teams have in common? Well, Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss, TCU, and Washington all intercept the football a lot, and all of those teams have some of the best turnover margins in all of college football. They cause turnovers and they take care of the football. Not something that you want to walk into as a coach, and really, Interceptions happen more frequently than lost fumbles do, it's just safer to run the football.
Did it help teams that they were able to put up so many yards against Kentucky in the run game? Of course, but that's not the sole purpose for them running the football, and those teams don't run the football on UK any more than they do on those other teams with good pass defenses, even if they did have elite run defenses.
If Kentucky merely shortens the yards per carry, and improves its red zone rush defense, which is responsible for 75% of the points from rushing touchdowns against UK, then the defense will improve dramatically.

I'll say this..pass defense wasn't the reason we lost the Florida game (minus maybe one play), pass defense wasn't the reason we lost the Mississippi State game, pass defense wasn't the reason we got blown out against Georgia and Tennessee and LSU..pass defense wasn't the reason South Carolina could've (and probably should've) beaten us if they just would've kept running the ball..pass defense was pretty bad last year, I'm not going to deny that one bit..but my goodness, the rush defense was god-awful (and is MUCH MUCH MUCH more key to our success than pass defense)...I mean just use your eyes and you can see that...if you think pass defense was the reason we lost against Florida and Mississippi State and Georgia and LSU and Tennessee then I don't know what to tell you....I'd just suggest you go back and re-watch a couple of those games..I mean I guess you can say "well the pass defense was a lot worse than the numbers showed because teams were able to run the ball at will and they didn't have to throw it" but by saying that you're basically making my point for me...let's fix the broken leg before we fix the sprained ankle..pass defense was bad, but rush defense was god-awful (and is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH more important to this team's success in SEC play) ..what's the point of focusing on a bad paint job if our car is missing it's engine? We have to handle first things first..if we get beat this year it's not going to be because of the SEC's QB's lighting us up through the air..it's going to be because (just like last year) we can't stop (or even marginally disrupt) the run game..the SEC is a run dominated league...the SEC doesn't beat you through the air, it beats you on the ground...you might want to focus on the sprained ankle, I'll focus on fixing the broken leg

I've tried to figure out why some of our fans focus more on passing plays and I think I've finally figured it out..even though the rush defense was the clear weakness of our team last year our fans focus on the passing game and pass defense because it's exciting and it's those passing plays that really stick out in their mind...I mean a team could run for 1000 yards against us but 99.9% of our fans would focus on the one long passing play we gave up because it's more memorable & noticable than a boring run up the middle..the running game is boring, so when Georgia and Tennessee and Mississippi State and Florida and South Carolina and LSU are ripping off 8 yards a pop in the running game our fans don't really focus on that because they aren't exciting or memorable...30 or 40 of those six or seven yard runs up the middle just don't stand out to the average UK fan like a 30-yard pass flying through the air.. passing plays that we give up on defense are what really stick out in their mind because they're a lot more exciting and a lot more memorable than giving up 50 boring carries up the middle for 300+ yards on the ground...I know the pass plays are exciting and one big pass sticks out more than 8 yards up the middle 50 times a game, but I'm telling you the SEC is a run-oriented league and you darn well better be able to slow down the run a little bit..I know those 2 or 3 long pass plays that we give up in a game stick out in your mind a lot more than than the 300+ yards we just got hammered for on the ground, but I promise you those rushing yards a whole lot more important and a whole lot more damaging to your chances of winning

I know our fans don't like running the ball and stopping the run because it's not exciting, but I'm telling you that's how the big boys have won for decades and decades (and how we got beat last year) and if we have success this season running the ball and stopping the run will be the reason we do so...pass defense is really important, I'm never going to deny that, but rush defense is a WHOLE lot more important and something that has to be shored up well before you even begin to think about pass D..that's just football 101..a good rush defense can make up for a bad pass defense, but a good pass defense can't make up for a bad rush defense..same way on offense, a good o-line can make up for bad skill players, but good skill players are rarely going to make up for a bad o-line (not in the SEC anyways)

 

[Tskware]

Ah, it could have went down. I think the only way it could have went was up in 2013, and they did just that, but moving from near the bottom of the country in a lot of categories to the middle of the country, in most categories, and in a couple of other categories, they were among the best in the country.
I just believe that based on what the coaches say, and honestly, what every reporter that has watched them has said, they'll be quite a bit better overall, and due to the experience that we have on defense, we'll be more consistent with whatever level of success that we have next season.

I am drinking the Kool Aid on that score as well, think we really are bigger, faster, deeper and have more players this year. But . . . I still want to see results on the field.

 

[CATFANFOLIFE87]

FSU ranked something like 110th in total defense in Stoops first year there. In his second year he was able to finish 44th in the country in total defense. Stoops 3rd and final year with FSU they ranked 3rd in total defense at the end of the season.

The Cats were hovering around 45th in the country in total defense last year before our lack of depth became too much to overcome. 8 straight weeks in the SEC without a bye meant that the train came off the tracks during SEC play. The LSU, UT, and UGA games skewed our defensive stats in what was shaping up to be a big step forward defensively. Toss out those three games (we obviously didn't have the depth that Stoops had in year two at FSU) and the Cats were on par with the improvement Stoops had at his last stop but in a far tougher league.

I don't think its out of the question that we finish with a defense that ranks in the top 25-30 in the country this year especially if Westry, Baity, and Randolph are able to make an impact at corner

 

[C1180]

Games are not played on paper and preseason predictions are good for another type of paper that involves a commode.

I get the feeling that something is stirring in UK football this year that the pundits just haven't taken the time to notice. WE are getting the old UK has forever been a doormat so why should this year be any different from them.

There is a new day dawning in UK football that the pundits have yet to comprehend.

 

[jimmy cowboy]

I believe they improve run defense an pass defense this year....Also believe the offense will be better...I think 6 wins is almost a lock barring injuries an 7 is very possible! Staff does seem very excited about the team this year!

 

[Deeeefense]

Lets all hope that Forrest and Flanagan are both more instinctive in their play this year and can corral the runners before they are 5 yards down field. My math tells me two 5 yard runs is a first down. Heck when you get that first 5 yard run it puts you in 2nd and short and opens the playbook wide open. IMO a perfect time for the opposing QB to take a shot down field especially if you have been doing two running plays with good results and have the SS creeping up in run support.

One of the reason the RB was 5 yards down the field was the defensive line failed to control their gaps or were flay out beaten by the opponents O-linemen. When an O-linemen gets out on a LB it leads to those big gains. We were very weak up the middle last year, as Douglas was primarily a rush tackle, Lewis was raw and had poor technique (but improved a lot as the season went on) and C.J. Johnson was transitioning from JUCO.
We will be much deeper and more experienced this year and it should show up in the defensive rushing yards allowed stat.

 

[C1180]

I am old fashioned and believe you must be able to defend the run and if you don't you are going to struggle to win football games. What ever the reason UK had too many players catching too many blocks last year and way too often had RBs running wild in their secondary where their smallish DBs had to tackle them.

I am not a huge fan of the 3-4 because IMO it is inherent weak against the run if you do not have three great DT types. One huge 2 gap NT and two quicker tackles types that can control their gaps and keep the OL off the LBs. Yes I do understand the defending the spread thing but you also must control the inside running game. If you are being gutted up the middle you are most likely to lose the game.

 

[WildCard]

The improvements are on par with a number of teams...

As for the number of teams that had such an increase in effectiveness, (close to an 8% jump) between the 2013-14 season:

West Virginia: from 45.6% to 31.4% (WVU is less talented than UK, per recruiting rankings, as well as Coach Dawson)
Nebraska: from 37.14% to 30.01%
Duke: from 41.76 to 34.4%
Louisville: from 41.67% to 31.8%
Mississippi State: from 42.08% to 35.1%

There ya go! I prefer to look at percentage samples of all 128 schools rather than simply cite a few examples but that's the kind of supporting data that puts credibility into "numbers projections"!

However, I'm not sure about your source numbers. According to cfbstats.com UofL allowed a 26.7 % 3rd down conversion rate in 2013 and it jumped all the way up to 31.8% in 2014. I'm not fact checking the others!

Peace

 

[fromthe25ydline]

One aspect to all of this is how many UK offensive possessions were "3 and out" last year? Realize how demoralizing that situation is to defenses that are struggling to begin with. You have a better than average series where you force a punt and you get to sit for just a few minutes before you are back on the field. Other threads have claimed that our D was exhausted during the second half of the season and this is one of the reasons why. The offense has to produce this year and I mean out score opponents when the D can't stop them consistently. The O has to put drives together, score more points and give the defense time to talk about adjustments and rest.

 

[MrHotDice]

Red Zone Defense
This is my real issue with our defense, and the funny thing is, I'm not even mad about how our players hold up against the rush in the red zone. Out of the 44 attempts to defend the red zone, Kentucky allowed 15 rushing touchdowns. I would like to see that number go down to 10, 11, or 12, which is a possibility with our experienced, beefed up defense, but the 15 red zone rushing TD's was on par with some of the top teams in the country at defending the red zone. Mississippi State led the country in this category, and they allowed 14 rushing TD's in the same number of attempted defenses. Auburn ranked 13th in the country here, and they allowed 19 rushing TD's in 54 attempted defenses. Florida State ranked 19th in the country, and they also allowed 19 rushing TD's in 52 attempted defenses.
Now my issue with our red zone defense? The red zone pass. It's kinda comical, having one of the elite safety corps in the SEC, having the one of the best pass protection linebackers in the SEC in Josh Forrest, and allowing 15 passing TD's in the red zone. That's unacceptable, and that is why Stoops brought in four very long, very athletic CB's for this season.
Reality is, the CB's that we've had the past couple of years, they're simply not big enough to stop passes in the red zone. With the glowing reviews that our new CB's have already received, I imagine that they could all make an immediate impact in this department.
The positive thing here is that teams can have a dramatically quick turnaround year-to-year.
Use Mississippi State as an example. In 2013, they allowed 13 rushing TD's, 10 passing TD's, and 12 field goals in 44 attempted defenses. In 2014, they allowed 14 rushing TD's, 5 passing TD's, and 9 field goals in 44 attempted defenses, and that made them the best in the country at defending the red zone.
Kentucky has the potential to be a very good red zone defensive team with the addition of the long, tall, athletic CB's, and the experience of our safeties and linebackers, we can improve on the 15 rushing TD's, 15 passing TD's, and 11 field goals made.
I think a realistic expectation for improvements in this department next season would be 12 rushing TD's, 8 passing TD's, and 14 field goals made. I truly believe that the new CB's, and an expanded playbook will improve the red zone defense in a big way.

Defensive TD's
Kentucky is right where it needs to be in this department. #2 in the country (#1 in the SEC) at converting turnovers into touchdowns without playing a down of offense in the process. Last season, UK scored 6 defensive TD's. A lot of that can be attributed to the S&C program, as well as having some pretty crafty linebackers and safeties in the open field.
It will be difficult for UK to maintain this number, but they could come close. As mentioned, the linebackers (namely Forrest) and safeties in UK's defense have terrific ball skills, and thanks to the S&C program's "big athlete" approach, where they have our linemen on both sides of the ball work out with receivers or DB's from time to time, and some outstanding coaching from Brumbaugh to boot, our linemen are pretty savvy when it comes to deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage.
The part where UK may not be able to capitalize is when it comes to the pass rush. At this time, it's unknown whether or not we will have somebody get in the backfield like Dupree could (I think Ware could possibly do it at times, as he's already regarded as the pass rusher for this team, and he has violent hand fighting techniques, which could help him cause more havoc in the backfield than Bud could at certain times while trying to physically man-handle some players). If players can get in the backfield and get the ball out of the QB's hands before his arm starts moving forward, we could possibly get a couple of defensive TD's in that fashion this season. A lot to be happy about here though. Will predict 4-5 defensive TD's for next season.

Rushing Defense
Some may say that UK regressed from 2013 to 2014 in this category, but I'll disagree with it. While 4.02 is better to hold RB's to than 4.49 is, I'm happier with the 20 rushing TD's allowed than the 25 rushing TD's allowed in 2013. Maybe that's due to the red zone rushing defense improving, because Kentucky allowed just as many explosive rushing touchdowns as they did in 2013 (5 rushing TD's for 20+ yards), but at any rate, it needs to improve, and I think now that our linebacking corps is beefed up, it will.
If Kentucky plays the run like they did against Louisville last season, we could be in good shape. I would like to see several numbers come down, and I think we will, again, due to the new-found depth, size, speed, and the coaches we have guiding them and calling plays.
Realistically, I think we could expect the run defense to allow 16 rushing TD's on the season, and 3.70 - 3.85 yards per carry. I believe that the yards per carry worsened due to losing an inside linebacker presence like Avery Williamson, and I think in Josh Forrest's senior year, with the experience he has, and the extra 22 pounds of weight on him, and a ton of time in our S&C program, we'll have that kind of presence again, but now with more talent around him to help carry the load, and a bigger playbook to work with.
For those who doubt that Josh Forrest could be that kind of presence, consider that last year, he was in on most plays between the tackles, and many plays outside of the tackles, but his biggest downfall was missing tackles. Despite that, he was 2nd in the SEC last season in solo tackles (63), 10th in the SEC in assisted tackles (47), and 5th in the SEC in total tackles (110). I believe now, he's going to have the ability to read and react faster (the coaches have actually already said that he improved quite a bit in this regard), and with him being up to 255# and being a terrific athlete, he'll be able to make even more solo and assisted tackles closer to the line of scrimmage.

If you all couldn't tell, I'm very excited about the future of our defense. I feel like we're taking steps in the right direction in many categories, and recruiting the necessary personnel to maximize the defense's effectiveness. With the playmakers that Kentucky has on offense, I think we could have a terrific year next season with an even better year in 2016!

Very good breakdown about the issue that will make or break this UK team this year. The SEC is a conference with the best players playing defense not offense.

Good analysis.

 

[Rhavicc]

There ya go! I prefer to look at percentage samples of all 128 schools rather than simply cite a few examples but that's the kind of supporting data that puts credibility into "numbers projections"!

However, I'm not sure about your source numbers. According to cfbstats.com UofL allowed a 26.7 % 3rd down conversion rate in 2013 and it jumped all the way up to 31.8% in 2014. I'm not fact checking the others!

Peace

My source was the official NCAA website haha.

 

[WildCard]

My source was the official NCAA website haha.

NCAA? Hmmmm...they haven't been able to get much right lately! If you like stats, try these two sites. Good numbers and more research friendly than the NCAA stat pages...

cfbstats

and

teamrankings

Both have good "basic stats" and different sets of expanded and situational stats. The big numbers difference is cfb uses all games and team rankings uses only stats against FBS opponents so there rare minor differences.

Peace

 

[Bigblueforever]

It better be "dramatically different" or it's going to be a long season.

True have to be a lot better on defense.

 

[southindycat]

NCAA? Hmmmm...they haven't been able to get much right lately! If you like stats, try these two sites. Good numbers and more research friendly than the NCAA stat pages...

cfbstats

and

teamrankings

Both have good "basic stats" and different sets of expanded and situational stats. The big numbers difference is cfb uses all games and team rankings uses only stats against FBS opponents so there rare minor differences.

Peace

Heed well these teachings, young Jedi.

 

[WeepNoMore]

Just finished reading every post in this thread and appreciate the effort put into compiling the stats and describing them in a meaningful way to readers that, like me, are not experts.

BUT for me, a couple of old adages that I learned watching UK's most successful teams in the '76 and '77 seasons, against far better competition schedule wise than we see today, namely

The team that controls the line of scrimmage has the best chance to win and usually wins the football game.

A team that is fundamentally sound has a better chance of winning the football game.

while simplistic are much better predictors of team success than all of the stats you can compile.

Once the 2014 SEC season began, UK was exposed as a team that:

1. was not able to control the line of scrimmage (In fact, we were manhandled on both sides of the ball.) and
2. was fundamentally weak (blocking, tackling, getting off blocks, dropped passes, etc.)

Unless, the 2015 UK football team is significantly improved in these areas, we are looking at results that mirror 2014.

I am optimistic enough and hopeful enough to believe we will, in fact, improve in these areas. And, if we do, the improved stats and wins will follow.

 

[Oldtrainer]

CATS defense have to stop the run! Especially in the SEC! When that happens watch how much better their pass defense becomes! Think there will be improvement this season due to more and better athletes.