Computer predictions for UK's first two NCAAT games

[Dablueman]

You know I guess I am just old school. When I played sports I wanted the toughest matchups. Alot of people dont realize what this team is capable of. I have a feeling Cal is gonna release the hounds so to speak. Cal backed us way back from running and gunning when teams stopped crashing the offensive glass against us. Now how teams prepare for us is totally different. I have a feeling the second round game is gonna be a blow out regardless who we play. WSU and Dayton will have to focus on one another the first game and won't be able to prepare like they should.
WSU 2017 and UK 2014 are not the same team. 2014 was freakishly talented team who jelled at the right time. Just got a feeling that neither Dayton or WSU has seen team speed anything like ours it's hard to prepare for especially in one day

 

[brianpoe]

This is arguably a better back court than the Fred VanVleet-Ron Baker tandem of years' past. From the little I've seen, Shamet is like a poor man's Lonzo Ball. Dayton will be a walk-in-the-park for WSU, and I expect a tough second round game for our Cats. One that we should win, of course, but a tough game nonetheless.

I can't see this at all. VanVleet and Baker were very high caliber players that beat good teams.

This bunch has not proven anything yet.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I think Kenpom really overvalues WSU. We shall see.

Of course. Possibly.
Tho if we face them and Vegas numbers come out and it's also in that 2-3 point range.....well at some point you have to conclude that maybe we are undervaluing them more than systems are overrating them

 

[The_Answer1313]

I don't think it's a fair comparison. That team was undefeated and if they didn't run into a hot UK team, who knows how far they make it.

I don't think anyone is suggesting this team is close to that. But they got a 1 seed. This team is a 10 seed. Is there a difference of about 40 spots between the two? I'm not sure.

 

[Mojocat]

When I played sports I wanted the toughest matchups.

Sorry, with all due respect, that's just dumb. Might be generally true, but in a single elimination tournament, you want the easiest path possible - a title won is a title no matter whether you played the most difficult slate of 6 games or the easiest. There is no asterisk, and no one will remember or even care. 4 years ago Louisville had the luxury of playing a 9 seed in the final four, and then a 4 seed in the title game. 2 years ago we played a 1 seed in the final four, and would have played another one seed on Monday had we won. We got no extra credit for that, and Louisville got no demerits.

This isn't about proving how tough you are, not about establishing manhood. I want the 6 easiest games. And when a national sports writer devotes a whole column to the idea that once again UK has a ridiculously tough road, it's worth noting.

 

[Double Oaked Juice]

I don't think it's a fair comparison. That team was undefeated and if they didn't run into a hot UK team, who knows how far they make it.

I don't think anyone is suggesting this team is close to that. But they got a 1 seed. This team is a 10 seed. Is there a difference of about 40 spots between the two? I'm not sure.

As a point of reference, here are WSU's Kenpom numbers from 2014 and this year:

2014:
Overall: +25.36 (#6)
Offense: 117.10 (#17)
Defense: 91.80 (#11)
Tempo: 64.9 (#258)

2017:
Overall: +26.41 (#8)
Offense: 119.6 (#12)
Defense: 93.2 (#19)
Tempo: 68.4 (#133)

 

[track42]

If you say so man.Big Bad Wichita State will kill us.

 

[ukmelanie]

Good thing your doubts mean absolutely nothing.

So you don't think Dayton has any chance at beating them?I've watched both teams several times and they seem pretty equal IMO.We shall see.

 

[Dablueman]

Sorry, with all due respect, that's just dumb. Might be generally true, but in a single elimination tournament, you want the easiest path possible - a title won is a title no matter whether you played the most difficult slate of 6 games or the easiest. There is no asterisk, and no one will remember or even care. 4 years ago Louisville had the luxury of playing a 9 seed in the final four, and then a 4 seed in the title game. 2 years ago we played a 1 seed in the final four, and would have played another one seed on Monday had we won. We got no extra credit for that, and Louisville got no demerits.

This isn't about proving how tough you are, not about establishing manhood. I want the 6 easiest games. And when a national sports writer devotes a whole column to the idea that once again UK has a ridiculously tough road, it's worth noting.

Dumb I am talking from the point of view of a competitor these guys as college basketball players don't sit there and think wow I hope we get a cupcake draw and if they did we would be on serious trouble so all do respect to you it's dumb not to want athletes who feel that way

 

[Jkwo]

The issue with computer modeling like Kenpom is its ability to measure midmajors effectively. I believe it fails terribly on this point. Kenpom adjusts for the weaker schedule, but not enough. Using Kenpom, no one will beat Gonzaga and Saint Mary's will be a sweet 16 team, WSU an elite 8 team (ignoring the real games they have to play). None of us believes any of that, so the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Exactly.

In stats, the further you have to extrapolate from the concrete data you have, the bigger your error will be.

They've beaten 1 top 100 team all year - South Dakota State or something?

You can't scale that up to our schedule in any meaningful way.


If you drop a stone from the top of the Burj Khalifa, there is a much, much broader area of points at which it can hit the ground than if you just dropped it from your hand while walking.

There are a ton of factors that you can't possibly account for when you project that far.

They have no idea how good that Wichita State team is - there's surely a limit on how good or bad they could be, but it is a very broad range. A 30 win team with one win over a tourney team? They could be the third best team in the SEC or the 8th.

 

[drainthatub]

Have you watched either Dayton or WSU play this season?

Yes and I've watched us play too. We will be fine if we come ready to play.

 

[drainthatub]

So you don't think Dayton has any chance at beating them?I've watched both teams several times and they seem pretty equal IMO.We shall see.

I think that game is a toss up and I think we beat either. Just roll the ball out there cal!!

 

[The_Answer1313]

As a point of reference, here are WSU's Kenpom numbers from 2014 and this year:

2014:
Overall: +25.36 (#6)
Offense: 117.10 (#17)
Defense: 91.80 (#11)
Tempo: 64.9 (#258)

2017:
Overall: +26.41 (#8)
Offense: 119.6 (#12)
Defense: 93.2 (#19)
Tempo: 68.4 (#133)

We have to keep in mind tho those numbers are based on the average team for that current year.
So +26 in 2017 might be different than +26 in 2014.

That's why it's not accurate to say look Kenpom has Gonzaga at +33 and 2012 UK was at +32 therefore Zaga is higher

 

[mj2k10]

Exactly.

In stats, the further you have to extrapolate from the concrete data you have, the bigger your error will be.

They've beaten 1 top 100 team all year - South Dakota State or something?

You can't scale that up to our schedule in any meaningful way.


If you drop a stone from the top of the Burj Khalifa, there is a much, much broader area of points at which it can hit the ground than if you just dropped it from your hand while walking.

There are a ton of factors that you can't possibly account for when you project that far.

They have no idea how good that Wichita State team is - there's surely a limit on how good or bad they could be, but it is a very broad range. A 30 win team with one win over a tourney team? They could be the third best team in the SEC or the 8th.

Great post, and exactly right.

As I said in a different thread, if they come out and beat the crap out of Dayton, I will certainly reevaluate how I think of them.

And last year was a totally different team for them, because they had 2 senior guards who are now on NBA rosters. Those 2 guys went for 29 of WSU's 65 against Arizona.

 

[kev69]

Wichita St is good. The posters on here who think otherwise are in for a rude awakening.

The Cats better be ready to play or they'll be heading home early.

 

[aceman509]

this is one of those times when I will take Vegas numbers over any computer projections

You do realize Vegas uses lots and lots and lots of computers to calculate their lines right? They are very correlated.

 

[kyups01]

A little surprising.

Realtimerpi predicts just an 82-71 victory over NKU.

Sagarin predicts UK wins by only 3 over Wichita St and by 9 over Dayton.

Forgive me....but wouldnt we be potentially playing UCLA in a thrid game or are the predicting Dayton to win?

 

[JFCats22]

Forgive me....but wouldnt we be potentially playing UCLA in a thrid game or are the predicting Dayton to win?

No, but we don't know who will win WSU/Dayton game.

If UK played WSU they are predicted to win by 3. If it is Dayton it's UK by 9.

 

[IndyCat1995]

Oklahoma State (UL's 10 seed) destroyed Wichita State this year

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Wichita St is good. The posters on here who think otherwise are in for a rude awakening.

The Cats better be ready to play or they'll be heading home early.

Of course they're good. The question is how good. Youre a big Zags fan too. They should be a 3 seed. I'll buy into mid majors when they prove it against real competition.

 

[Nubb16]

Makes me nervous

I'll take 1 point victories from here on out

 

[KYCAT78]

Vegas is going to have us a 2-3 point favorite in that second round if we face Wichita st.

The predictions from the computers and Vegas have lined up in nearly every game UK has played this year.

We are a 19 point favorite vs Northern KY
If I look on KP it says 87-68.
Sagarin says 21.

So they are all nearly in agreement.

We will be no less than a 10 point favorite against Wussie State University.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We will be no less than a 10 point favorite against Wussie State University.

Do u wanna make a bet on that? lol

 

[Bkocats]

If we can't beat Dayton or Wichita St. then it doesn't matter what region we are in.

this right here

 

[The_Answer1313]

Oklahoma State (UL's 10 seed) destroyed Wichita State this year

Yeah but TBH OK St probably should be ranked higher as well lol

 

[KYCAT78]

Do u wanna make a bet on that? lol[/QUOTEI will bet you it is closer to 10 than 3. 3 is Kansas, UNC type of line not WSU. I would bet you a hundred in a heartbeat it is closer to 10 than 3.

 

[PokerCat72]

Sorry, with all due respect, that's just dumb. Might be generally true, but in a single elimination tournament, you want the easiest path possible - a title won is a title no matter whether you played the most difficult slate of 6 games or the easiest. There is no asterisk, and no one will remember or even care. 4 years ago Louisville had the luxury of playing a 9 seed in the final four, and then a 4 seed in the title game. 2 years ago we played a 1 seed in the final four, and would have played another one seed on Monday had we won. We got no extra credit for that, and Louisville got no demerits.

This isn't about proving how tough you are, not about establishing manhood. I want the 6 easiest games. And when a national sports writer devotes a whole column to the idea that once again UK has a ridiculously tough road, it's worth noting.

Agreed......give me 6 upset specials as our path

But when teams we don't like have easy paths, that's remembered/harped on here a lot.

 

[KYCAT78]

Do u wanna make a bet on that? lol

I will bet you 100 it is closer to 10 than it is to 3.

 

[UKCATSFREAK]

Ya know tho the committee ranked these teams based on their criteria.

This is just a good example of why that criteria needs changed ASAP.

When they move to other non RPI metrics, this becomes less of an issue.

Exactly this! There were multiple threads yesterday putting all the blame on Barnhart. Even to the extent that one said he should've been sending gift basket and get well cards because it's all based on favors. It was comical really but it's the damn system that needs to be addressed and THEN then can change. Barnhart was on KSR this morning and talked about the certain nonnegotiables in the process that locked us into our bracket and seed. There wasn't anything he could've done to change it when they use a system for the process. It just needs to be changed. He also mentioned the fact that location comes in as a factor as well which is just absurd to me. The top 4 seeds should be on an S curve and then you can use the metrics to figure out the rest. The top 4 seeds and their fair treatment is the most important issue because those are the ones that have earned it and the ones that always win the tournament. So, you have to treat those teams as fairly as possible regardless of location. With location being a factor, we will ALWAYS get screwed because the best teams are on the east coast. There are few teams that are title worthy consistently out on the west coast. It's a flawed system that needs to be adjusted but it's ridiculous to put the blame on 1 individual if the committee when a system is in place. The system is the problem.

 

[KYCAT78]

Do u wanna make a bet on that? lol

Tic toc Mr. lol