Computer predictions for UK's first two NCAAT games
- Thread starter JFCats22
- Start date
Yeah def a bit surprising but I will take the result of all the games........right to the sweet 16!
It's more about them feeling good about our opponent then not thinking highly of us
We are 4th overall in Kenpom and 5th overall is Sagarin
Wichita will have a chip on their shoulder kinda like we did a few years ago when the role was reversed.
Dayton won't be a pushover for Wichita.
Dayton won't be a pushover for Wichita.
Ya know tho the committee ranked these teams based on their criteria.
This is just a good example of why that criteria needs changed ASAP.
When they move to other non RPI metrics, this becomes less of an issue.
This is just a good example of why that criteria needs changed ASAP.
When they move to other non RPI metrics, this becomes less of an issue.
Look for this to be a good game. ud guards are very good but they struggle against teams with a good big man.
I haven't watched wsu play but it looks like a pretty good matchup, on paper anyway.
Ding Ding Ding Ding. What I don't understand is how the committee and a large portion of our fan base says analytics shouldn't matter when it comes to seeding. So WSU in their minds should be a 10 seed because they haven't beaten anybody, despite the analytics saying they are a top 25 team.
But if metrics don't matter, why is RPI, one of the worst metrics out there, the only one they use? Not only that, but why do they put SOOO much stock into it. It makes no sense to me. If you want to dismiss analytics entirely (which I totally disagree with, but I'd understand) then don't use only one analytic system and don't use one that is terrible.
What these computer models don't calculate is that the majority of the fans will be from BBN! So add another three points to the predictions.
WSU's record is inflated folks. Fred Vanfleet and Ron baker are not walking through that door.
The issue with computer modeling like Kenpom is its ability to measure midmajors effectively. I believe it fails terribly on this point. Kenpom adjusts for the weaker schedule, but not enough. Using Kenpom, no one will beat Gonzaga and Saint Mary's will be a sweet 16 team, WSU an elite 8 team (ignoring the real games they have to play). None of us believes any of that, so the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
If we can't beat Dayton or Wichita St. then it doesn't matter what region we are in.
You are seriously that scared of Wichita State?If they can't beat that team who has beaten not one very good team then we were never any good.
While I agree it probably doesn't adjust correctly for SOS, I'm thinking the truth probably lies closer to what the computers are saying vs what the committee is saying.
No one thinks that team is an elite 8 team........but they got Wichita St at 38th.
Let's split the difference and say they are 23rd. That's still better than other second round opponents.
Vegas is going to have us a 2-3 point favorite in that second round if we face Wichita st.
The predictions from the computers and Vegas have lined up in nearly every game UK has played this year.
We are a 19 point favorite vs Northern KY
If I look on KP it says 87-68.
Sagarin says 21.
So they are all nearly in agreement.
Why? Their legit players from that game are gone!
If people are this nervous over Wichita State if/when we play UCLA they will be huddled in the closet with their binky.![[cheers]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/5628.gif "Cheers [cheers]")
Nope, I'm not splitting the difference there. They played 3 tourney teams, so far as I'm aware, they are 0-3. Ok. St. wore them out. You know, another 10 seed. The only "good" win was against a terrible 11-20 Oklahoma team. They barely won that one. Then they got into their pitiful conference and looked like giant killers. Their stats are inflated on both sides by their weak competition. The more I look at them the closer I think their seed is to being correct. At best they are a 32 seed. To put them there you still have to move them in front of teams who have actually beat someone who matters.
So we were a 7 pt favorite over Arkansas but we'll only be a 2-3 pt favorite over WSU? Again, I think too much credence is being given to radically flawed computer models. My eyes still work.
Let me take this a little further. Their conference is ranked 12th, even with WSU and ISU being ranked high. The entire conference won 4 against RPI top 50. 3 of the 4 were WSU and ISU beating each other. The other was a single win over Butler by Indiana St early in the year. There isn't a single win over a decent P5 school.
Outside of WSU and ISU, the average RPI in conference was right at 200. I wonder why they won so much and so easily after getting into conference games. Kenpom has lost his mind.
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People are forgetting that WSU lost all of those games before it moved Landry Shamet to Point Guard. They became a completely different team once that move occurred. Started just straight killing every team they played.
This is arguably a better back court than the Fred VanVleet-Ron Baker tandem of years' past. From the little I've seen, Shamet is like a poor man's Lonzo Ball. Dayton will be a walk-in-the-park for WSU, and I expect a tough second round game for our Cats. One that we should win, of course, but a tough game nonetheless.
Exactly. Not getting the WSU love. I think they lost almost all of their OOC games this year.
Oklahoma st shouldn't have been a 10 either for that matter so the fact they beat Wichita st doesn't really matter too much.
One game
I mean UT beat us. No one is going to put them ahead of us
One game
I mean UT beat us. No one is going to put them ahead of us
Just for fun let's look at how WSU did against teams in the tournament:
Louisville: Loss 62-52
Michigan State: Loss 77-72
OK. State: Loss 93-76
Some interesting stats from some of these games...
MSU v. WSU - WSU shot 30 free throws and 23 of their 72 points were from the charity stripe.
OK State v. WSU - Once again, WSU shot 47
free throws and 36 of their 76 were from the charity stripe.
If I am not mistaken they played a grand total of 15 games against teams with winning records and they went 11-4 in those 15 games. Their wins against winning records are Loyola-Chicago x2 (18-14), Illinois State x2 (27-6) , Missouri State x3 (17-16), Southern Illinois x2 (17-16), Colorado State (23-11), South Dakota State (18-16).
WSU can really knock down the three. They made 10+ threes in 13 games this season, which helped them to win 6 of the games where they faced teams with winning records.
So, it seems as though UK will really need to guard the three point line and guard without fouling.
Louisville: Loss 62-52
Michigan State: Loss 77-72
OK. State: Loss 93-76
Some interesting stats from some of these games...
MSU v. WSU - WSU shot 30 free throws and 23 of their 72 points were from the charity stripe.
OK State v. WSU - Once again, WSU shot 47
free throws and 36 of their 76 were from the charity stripe.If I am not mistaken they played a grand total of 15 games against teams with winning records and they went 11-4 in those 15 games. Their wins against winning records are Loyola-Chicago x2 (18-14), Illinois State x2 (27-6) , Missouri State x3 (17-16), Southern Illinois x2 (17-16), Colorado State (23-11), South Dakota State (18-16).
WSU can really knock down the three. They made 10+ threes in 13 games this season, which helped them to win 6 of the games where they faced teams with winning records.
So, it seems as though UK will really need to guard the three point line and guard without fouling.
Have you actually watched Wichita State play? My guess is no - in which case your eye test is irrelevant. You're just looking at their schedule and reacting to it. Pomeroy is generally considered the best computer model. You're ready to dispense with it simply because it tells you something you don't like.
Whatever you might think of Wichita State, the point is we shouldn't be playing them in a second round game. That's a sweet 16 game. It's the same as it was with IU last season - no way a 4 seed should play a team that won the B10 by two full games in the second round....
Teams that shoot a ton of 3s
Anything can happen. More fluctuation is 3 pt fg % compared to 2.
If your a small team trying to knock off a giant bomb away from 3 and hope they fall. Also play at a slow pace lol
Anything can happen. More fluctuation is 3 pt fg % compared to 2.
If your a small team trying to knock off a giant bomb away from 3 and hope they fall. Also play at a slow pace lol
Thing about kenpom is it's what's happened on the court. It's not some crazy formula.
It's points per game adjusted for pace and sos.
People acknowledge margin of victory as important. This is essentially the same thing
It's points per game adjusted for pace and sos.
People acknowledge margin of victory as important. This is essentially the same thing
![[eyeroll]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/rolleye/rolleye0011.r191677.gif "Eye roll [eyeroll]")
I didn't mean the same players. The same mentality.
We entered the tourney that year as the 8 seed...they were 1 and undefeated. We felt "slighted" by our seed and having being put in the same bracket with them.
It's sort of reversed this year. We are a top five team (the highest 2 seed). They've won 30 games and feel slighted to be a 10 seed. We have everything to lose. They have nothing to lose.
