comparing this year's team/talent to last year

[JonathanW]

This doesn't, can't, compare the chemistry, or how the pieces fit together!!!!
It's purely a comparison of talent, of the pieces, not of the whole and how the pieces fit together.

First the easy part.
2016-Ulis should be better than 2015-Ulis
2016-Lee should be better than 2015-Lee
2016-Hawkins should be better than 2015-Hawkins
2016-Willis should be better than 2015-Willis

2016 Labissiere should be reasonably close to 2015 Towns, different body-types, but one #1 pick the other projected as top 3 pick, both multi-skilled
2016 Poythress I think, if healthy, can be reasonably close to 2015 WCS, Poythress can guard 3/4/5 and is stronger than Willie and may have a little bit better offensive game, and doesn't trail WCS defensively by a lot; but the "if healthy" is a big IF
2016 Murray should be reasonably close, maybe better than 2015 Booker, although they have different games
2016 Briscoe should be reasonably close to 2015 Andrew Harrison, both big strong lead guards
2016 Mulder should be reasonably close to 2015 Aaron Harrison. 2014 Aaron was better, but 2015 Aaron struggled, and I think the sharp-shooting juco can match, maybe even surpass that
2016 Humphries & 2016 Wynhard combination should be reasonably close to 2015 Johnson, but I think Johnson was a little better than they will be.
2016 Matthews, won't be able to compare to 2015 Lyles, Lyles is just better. They are also very different players (size & style), and reflects how last year we were a bigger team than we will be this coming season.

Another way to compare, is ranking the players within each team (best to worst) and then comparing them (16 best to 15 best, 16 2nd-best to 15 2nd-best, and so on). In Statistics this is a non-parametric comparison. Granted there is definitely some subjectivity within the rankings. I will bold who I think has the advantage. But as you can see it is pretty close across the board.

16 - 15____
Labissiere - Towns
Murray - WCS
Ulis - Lyles
Briscoe - Booker
Poythress - Andrew H
Lee - Aaron H
Mulder - Ulis
Matthews - Johnson
Willis - Lee
Hawkins - Willlis
Humphries - Hawkins
Wynyard - walkons

 

[UK3K]

Did you say Murray should be about the same as Booker, really? Booker was good for about two months and only excelled at shooting. Murray will be one of the best all around players in the country. Poy has more passion than WCS, WCS might have been the most athletic 7 foot guy in history but he took halves and games off and he couldn't play through contact. Lyles will be missed. Towns personality will be missed. Humphries and Johnson should be a wash. Johnson just didn't have many tools, but he couldn't be moved and he played with heart.

 

[chroix]

Seems like guards will be a slight upgrade and bigs will be a slight downgrade mainly because of the lack of depth up front.

 

[Orange Soda King]

Potential for a better backcourt, not the same depth and talent at frontcourt, but still a great frontcourt.

Potential to be yet another scary defensive team. Ulis is a known pest, Hawkins is a known pest, but probably won't be called on a lot. Matthews and Mulder supposedly are great defenders. We will see how well Murray and Briscoe defend. Poythress, Lee, and Skal will all be great defenders.

 

[WildMoon]

Not sure how you can simply state that Mulder is close to Aaron. While Mulder might shoot three better than Aaron, it's still a big ? if Mulder can bring any other aspect close to Aaron. Aaron was part of one of the best defensive team. He was noticeably better his sophomore year, same is true for Andrew.

Is Skal really close to KAT? That's also debatable. It's easy to assume, but to actually live up to #1 pick billing is very difficult.

Murray is most likely will be better overall player than Booker. He ended up shooting 42% while having a stretch in the middle where he shot above 60%, so obviously he ended up being very inconsistent three point shooter.

Talent level / potential, i think, isn't very close between upcoming season and 2015 season. WCS/KAT's potential is insanely high. WCS started the game late, his athleticism is off the chart and he isn't handicapped offensive player that he was freshman year.

Still a lot of wait and see. It's easier to exploit 5'8" / 5'9" weakness of Ulis when he's the lead guard. Also...

 

[chroix]

Didn't see Ulis get exploited ever last year though

 

[jrpross]

The whole dynamic of this team will be totally different I think. The weaknesses are more apparent (lack of bulk down low, lack of size, no real small forward) but I also think the roles will be more clearly defined this year. For instance we know who our floor general is and Poy will be back at the 4. The best players will play more minutes and they will have weapons they didn't have last year. They won't be as dominating but I do think they have a real shot to be the best team out there this year.

 

[Poetax]

Didn't see Ulis get exploited ever last year though

He did well but there were a couple of games where the opposing coach went after him.

 

[Orange Soda King]

He did well but there were a couple of games where the opposing coach went after him.

Stefan Moody

 

[musrat59]

I think they have the potential to be an outstanding team if everyone stays healthy.

 

[Orange Soda King]

I think they have the potential to be an outstanding team if everyone stays healthy.

That's the big thing I'm hoping for. I keep wondering what could have been if Noel didn't get hurt (#1 pick), WCS didn't get hurt in 2014, and Poythress wasn't hurt and able to play against Wisconsin...

 

[wcc31]

Murray is the only one with the potential to make such a comparison close. For all that we had on last year's squad- and we had a lot- we didn't have an elite wing who could create his own shot.

 

[Poetax]

Stefan Moody

Exactly, and to some extent the Wisconsin game.

 

[KnowsAllTellsAll]

This doesn't, can't, compare the chemistry, or how the pieces fit together!!!!
It's purely a comparison of talent, of the pieces, not of the whole and how the pieces fit together.

First the easy part.
2016-Ulis should be better than 2015-Ulis
2016-Lee should be better than 2015-Lee
2016-Hawkins should be better than 2015-Hawkins
2016-Willis should be better than 2015-Willis

2016 Labissiere should be reasonably close to 2015 Towns, different body-types, but one #1 pick the other projected as top 3 pick, both multi-skilled
2016 Poythress I think, if healthy, can be reasonably close to 2015 WCS, Poythress can guard 3/4/5 and is stronger than Willie and may have a little bit better offensive game, and doesn't trail WCS defensively by a lot; but the "if healthy" is a big IF
2016 Murray should be reasonably close, maybe better than 2015 Booker, although they have different games
2016 Briscoe should be reasonably close to 2015 Andrew Harrison, both big strong lead guards
2016 Mulder should be reasonably close to 2015 Aaron Harrison. 2014 Aaron was better, but 2015 Aaron struggled, and I think the sharp-shooting juco can match, maybe even surpass that
2016 Humphries & 2016 Wynhard combination should be reasonably close to 2015 Johnson, but I think Johnson was a little better than they will be.
2016 Matthews, won't be able to compare to 2015 Lyles, Lyles is just better. They are also very different players (size & style), and reflects how last year we were a bigger team than we will be this coming season.

Another way to compare, is ranking the players within each team (best to worst) and then comparing them (16 best to 15 best, 16 2nd-best to 15 2nd-best, and so on). In Statistics this is a non-parametric comparison. Granted there is definitely some subjectivity within the rankings. I will bold who I think has the advantage. But as you can see it is pretty close across the board.

16 - 15____
Labissiere - Towns
Murray - WCS
Ulis - Lyles
Briscoe - Booker
Poythress - Andrew H
Lee - Aaron H
Mulder - Ulis
Matthews - Johnson
Willis - Lee
Hawkins - Willlis
Humphries - Hawkins
Wynyard - walkons

This is a pretty optimistic view of your incoming class compared to your outgoing players.

 

[Ajax10]

Let's wait until we at least see a game or 2 to compare. Our returning players should be improved - with Poythress a question mark. All the freshman have potential, but until we see them play an actual college game it is too hard to compare. We certainly have the potential to be very good. Much different than last year, but very good.

 

[KnowsAllTellsAll]

This incoming class is highly regarded as being pretty weak outside of maybe the top 10 players in the class. Anyone who watched the McDonald's and Jordan Brand came away unimpressed. I think Murray and Skal are no brainers for Kentucky and Diallo for KU, but the others are not guaranteed to make any significant contributions this year.

 

[KnowsAllTellsAll]

Yeah, probably 12 points weaker than the 2015 team, which means the Cats would only beat Kansas by 20 on a neutral court, maybe 14 under the Helms Banners at Phog...

I know you're trying to be funny with the Helms Banners jokes, but I'm also not a fan of them. So direct them to others.

I think Kansas wins at home by 5-8 in overtime this year.

 

[kentucky_wildcat_#1]

I would take last year's talent, but this year's team. Not many teams will ever have as much talent as last year's team, but as we found out, it doesn't take that much talent to win it all. If any team Ever does match last year's talent, it will be Cal.

 

[Teachable Moe]

Last year's team wasn't simply tall. They were huge people. Calipari likes size and coaches most comfortably with size. It will be interesting to see how he handles the difference.

There are some players returning who, while very good, get lionized here beyond their capacity to deliver. But the great thing is, very good basketball players are coming in. Not simply talented, athletic guys. Good basketball players. I like this team.

 

[Bigblueforever]

No team in a while will match the 2015 Cats' overall size, smothering team defense -- at its best -- and combination of returning NBA-level talent and lottery-pick newcomers. No way to slice the baloney to make that happen. Even shading things toward the incoming players, you are left with WCS and Lyles as talents unmatched in 2016.

That doesn't mean the 2016 team can't be extremely successful. It probably matches up favorably with both 2011 and 2014, and both of those teams were a bounce or call or two away from winning it all.

Agree, but this year team should be outstanding with these players.

 

[Hoskins91]

I think it's very possible we have a few people that are better than anybody on that team, Towns being the one possible exception. Whether that makes us better or not remains to be seen.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Overall, I don't think we have near the talent we had last year. Not even close.

But no one else in the nation has anywhere near that talent either.

There's no teams out there with the talent of UK, Wisconsin, and Duke last year.

It's not fair to compare this team to last year's team.

This team is not as talented, but they face a weaker field this year.

If you compare this team with the other contenders you will see that we have the most talent again this year.

 

[jedcat]

With each position, I think there are "wins" for last year's team and for this year's team on specific elements. For instance, at point, Harrison had the height and strength advantage that helped both offensively and defensively. Ulis has certain specific advantages. The same comparison could be made about each position, at least with starters. So if some of those particular advantages are drawn out and fit into the overall team this year we can have similar success. I don't think undefeated, but maybe as good toward the end of the year as the newcomers mature.

 

[KyFaninNC]

Briscoe and Murray will be heads and shoulders above the twins. Less size this year but better overall pieces.

 

[kybassfan]

The 2015 team had more athletic ability, end of story.

Can the 2016 be a more accomplished basketball team? Of course! This comes down to execution, fundamentals, effort, rabid defense and that intangible chemistry. Ulis gets it. Let's hope it's contagious.

 

[ia.ukfan]

The 2015 team had more athletic ability, end of story.


End of story? 2015 basically had one elite athlete. WCS was a freak athletically, no doubt. Towns is fairly athletic for his size, but certainly not a crazy athlete. His footwork matched with decent athleticism for a 7 footer is what makes him scary (along with his overall skill level). The twins were average athletes, Dakari was terrible, Poy was out after 10 games, Booker was an average to slightly above average athlete (for example, was terrible at staying in front of people on defense). Lyles is a good athlete, but not a freak.

Lee and Ullis don't count as an athletic advantage as they are back. I would actually say 2016 has an advantage from an athetlic ability standpoint. Better in the back court, and probably a push in the front court when you consider our 3 main bigs are very athletic.

IDK whose better overall, biased me says I like 2016 more. More balanced, great skill level, another GREAT group of men. Going to be fun to watch.

 

[kybassfan]

House keeping item, ia.ukfan, make your comments outside the quote bracket so they work properly.

Now to your comment, athleticism is more than just speed and jumping. Strength, reaction times, hand eye, etc are all factors of athleticism. For example, WCS was very fast for his size but his reaction times and hand eye coordination were also well above the line. That combination made him a one of a kind defender. The Harrisons and Towns had all three abilities in great quantity. These qualities made them standout in the SEC.

I stand by my comment that the the 2015 team was hands down more athletic. Will 2016 exceed their accomplishments as a basketball team? That's quite possible as the 2016 team is quite skilled. However the bar is very very high. Takes athletics, skill and teamwork to jump over 38 - 1. Let's give them a chance to prove themselves.

Let's also not set the standard so high that some thing less becomes failure.

 

[Blue Decade]

When you compare this year's talent to last year, you have to blind yourself to how the NBA draft turned out. Player development is not predictable. Towns becoming the overall #1 draft choice and Booker becoming a lottery pick were definitely surprises. Who knows where or when our current freshmen will be drafted? So the comparison has to be September, 2014, vs. September, 2015. Looking at it in a preseason vs. preseason perspective, I give Labissiere a slight edge over Towns. Even though Towns went on and developed more quickly than most freshmen develop, Labissiere might do the same. Lyles gets a moderate to big edge over Humphries. Briscoe a slight to moderate edge over Ulis. Murray a big edge over Booker. Matthews and Mulder are quality wings. We had more returning talent a year ago with WCS, Dakari, and the twins. But Poythress, Lee, Willis, Ulis, and Hawkins are a year older, which helps them. So until we actually see how fast this year's freshmen develop, the 2 teams look roughly comparable in overall strength although last year's team was much better defensively and this year's team ought to be significantly better offensively.

 

[Bluegrassking]

Because of how rare a player like Willie comes along and then is combined with somebody like KAT in a front court I'm not sure parts of the defensive talent can ever be expected to be seen in the one and done period especially Nor is Lyles walking through the door.

We do have a lot of good guards and will see several combinations of 3 guard lineups and here is where we compare well this year and there is room to believe improvement is possible.

Overall, a step back but still quite high and seemingly a whole different brand dictated by a very different balance of the talent.

 

[Dakota25]

I don't think a team in college basketball will ever compare to 2014-2015 UK in terms of talent. However this year's team is the most talented in the country this season and is arguably the third most talented calipari team behind the champions and last year's team.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Right now, I like our backcourt slightly better for this coming season.

But the frontcourt is weaker than last year's. Of course, we had quite possibly the best frontcourt in school history Last year, so even with the drop off we still have one of the best frontcourt said in the nation, at least on paper.

 

[kyjeff1]

We have exceptional talent on this 2015/16 squad but it's not on par with last years version of the cats and that's okay.
As we all know it comes down to matchups and I like that the strongest part of this team is the backcourt. When you look at the teams that win titles they had studs in the backcourt. We wanted the twins to be studs and they were at times but they bonked at the end of the wisconsin game. It was the 6" between their ears that kept them from being studs. I know Ulis has it between the ears but if a couple of our other backcourt guys are mentally capable of taking on the pressure we can finish the job that last years team failed to finish.

 

[Blue Decade]

All of you seem to be judging last year's team by the developed talent they had as of last March, but you don't know how this next time will develop. By next March, this next team could be as good or even better. That wouldn't surprise me. When you compare the 2 teams, you have to take into account that you already know how last year's team developed by March, but all you know about this next team is how these players played last year. To compare the 2 teams right, you have to compare September, 2014, to September, 2015. Otherwise everyone will say last year's team is better, which isn't necessarily true.

 

[bucsrule8872]

All of you seem to be judging last year's team by the developed talent they had as of last March, but you don't know how this next time will develop. By next March, this next team could be as good or even better. That wouldn't surprise me. When you compare the 2 teams, you have to take into account that you already know how last year's team developed by March, but all you know about this next team is how these players played last year. To compare the 2 teams right, you have to compare September, 2014, to September, 2015. Otherwise everyone will say last year's team is better, which isn't necessarily true.

Agreed.

And I think our team in September of 2014 was better on paper than September 2015. I don't even think it's close, but it doesn't have to be.

By March the 2016 team might be better, but it won't be definitive either way. Even if we win it all, I wouldn't say 2016 is better than 2015. It's hard to compare years. The competition is different this season, so we will really never know.

 

[DANZIGwithWOLVES]

I hope Poythress gets a chance to shine.

 

[At least 23 Ws in 22 of past 35 seasons_UK 1980-81]

UK 2014-15:


Last season's 2014-15 UK combined & avg. weight (including Poythress):

3,366 lbs. /16 players =

210.375 lbs. = avg weight (including Poy)




Without Poythress: 3366-238=3,128/15=

208.533 lbs = avg. weight (without Poy)


--


UK 2015-16:


This season's 2015-16 UK combined & avg. weight (including Wynyard):

3104 lbs/15 players (including wynyard) =

206.933 lbs. = avg. weight (with wynyard)




(Not including wynyard) 2850 lbs/14 players:

203.571 lbs avg weight (without wynyard)

----

UK: 2014-15

Avg height: 6' 7 & 11/16"

They were taller than almost every NBA team. Comparing last season's NCAA team heights, there was an article saying the gap between Kentucky and second place was larger than the gap between second place and 33rd place. Including Poythress: 10 players were 6'6" or taller, seven 6'8" or taller, four at least 6'10" (ps, after looking at a lot of video and stills for comparison with other players, I think Marcus Lee was actually at least 6'10, even early last season -- not the listed 6'9" [regardless of any official or released NBA combine measurements] -- he towered over many other supposedly 6'9" players and was very comparable to our other, tallest players, plus, he has extra-extra-long reach due to his shoulders setting up, relatively very high. Usually, no single, 'still', game photo ever gives an accurate 'eyeball' measurement of height -- you have to do a lot of video/photo comparisons, with players standing different ways and different distances from each other, often not standing straight-up -- often in mid-gate.)

This season's (2015-16) avg player height, including wynyard: 6' 5 and 7/16"

So, the avg UK player this season is 2 and 1/4 inches shorter than the avg UK player last season.

---

Now, comparing this current, UK team's avg. weight & height data to another, current, top-5 team (I chose KU, who seemed built most like UK) yields these results:

UK, with Wynyard, will have seven players at least 6'5", whereas KU, if Diallo plays (but not Colby, who must sit-out), will have 11 players at least 6'5" (12 including practice player D. Colby).

KU's avg. height (without Colby), and if Diallo plays: exactly 6'6", compared to UK's 6'5 and 11/16ths (with wynyard) = absolutely no significant difference.

KU's total and avg player weight will be just slightly less than UK's (absolutely no significant difference) and, of course, what's the point of including walk-on players' data? There is none, but the number comparisons are still somewhat interesting (imo).

(Remember: UK: 203.571 lbs. avg weight, without wynyard)

KU's total weight & avg: 3,083 lbs / 15 players =

205.5333 lbs: Kansas' avg. player weight, including/if Diallo, but minus Colby (who will only practice/sitting out).

206.933 lbs. = avg. Kentucky player weight, including Wynyard.

207.6875 lbs = Kansas' avg. player practice-squad weight (including Colby).

208.533 lbs = Last UK season's avg. player weight, without Poythress

210.375 lbs. = Last season's avg player weight, including Poythress


Conclusion, Kentucky and Kansas will have nearly identical average player weights and heights this season (absolutely no significant differences), which will likely be among the nation's best.

And again, last season's avg. UK player was about 2 inches taller than this season's (fwiw), and again, it's kind of pointless to include data for all these bench players (who won't play), plus, the end-result of this height-weight 'study' doesn't show hardly anything 'telling' (but nonetheless...there ya go).

 

[michaeluk26]

Briscoe and Murray will be heads and shoulders above the twins. Less size this year but better overall pieces.

They better be damn near flawless to be "head and shoulders" above the twins. Keep shortchanging the twins. Its like an epidemic on this board.

 

[mj2k10]

They better be damn near flawless to be "head and shoulders" above the twins. Keep shortchanging the twins. Its like an epidemic on this board.

The Harrison's legacy is always going to be open to debate. It's a question of measurables vs unmeasurables. The twins had one huge measurable in their favor- being 2 huge parts of 2 FF teams, including one that won 38 straight games- but they also had a lot arguing against them. It's right there in black and white that they combined to shoot 247/637 last year (.388), and 95/281 from 3 (.330). The rest of the team shot .502 overall and .359 from 3. The combined stats from their freshmen year were slightly better, but still along the same lines.

So the question is always going to be whether the twins were beneficiaries of playing with great talent, or whether they were helping their teams in ways that weren't necessarily showing up in the stats. In it's simplest form-how much was their size influencing the game, on offense and defense, compared to the obvious fact that they were inefficient shooters who simply missed a lot?

I don't know the answer. I'm not going to dismiss the twins like some do, because they combined to play over 1/4 th of the minutes for a team that won 38 games in a row. That's no small thing. However, I'm also not going to completely ignore their obvious deficiencies. What I suspect is going to happen this year is that UK will, at times, look like a much better offensive team than last year. Ulis and Murray are better shooters than either twin, I suspect Mulder is too, and Briscoe is at least as good as Andrew. At the same time, there are going to be a lot of times where UK is just going to seem far less intimidating because the twins are no longer here.

 

[Buck Creek Cat]

2015 had more talent but 2016 will have more athleticism.

 

[MKGMVP]

Depth is overrated, you need some but you don't need 11 nor do you want to play 11. I think this team is more suited to the college game. The key is Poythresis at the 4, major mismatch.