On paper they look statistically very good. A top 5 draft pick and tradition. 3 titles. 45-14.
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Comebakatz3 - how do you see the SR matchup with OSU?
- Thread starter Kybluedude
- Start date
Whew. Called out. Give me some time to dig. Maybe tomorrow or Friday morning and I'll give you a full write up and my thoughts. They might not be worth a hill of beans but we can argue about it then. Lol
Happy Friday.
Feels like UK drew a tall order with Oregon State, but theoretically, at this state in an NCAA tournament type situtation nothing is easy. Oregon State is hitting .309 as a team and has a team ERA of 3.98. Those are scary good numbers. Their best hitter is Travis Bazzana who is hitting .415 with 28 home runs... ohh and he's also stolen 16 bases, so just walking him (which he's done 74 times) doesn't mean he's still not a threat to score. He leads the team in that as well with 84 runs, the next closest is a guy with 52. UK wants to be successful this weekend they have to limit any damage that Bazzana does. That means that they have to be really good with the guys hitting before him to ensure that if he does come up and UK does pitch to him that the best he can do is hit solo home runs. If he comes up with runners on the bases then UK is in some trouble. He is likely to hit in the leadoff spot, so that means that UK has to be real good against the bottom half of the lineup. It is somewhat safe for UK to walk Bazana, but the concern there is that hitting behind him is Micah McDowell who is hitting .403 with 6 home runs. Not a huge power threat, but certainly a guy that can produce and knock in runs. Gavin Turley is another big home run threat for the Beavs, hitting 19 of them on the year with a .284 average. Gavin will strike out a ton, so UK needs to challenge him, but not leave anything up for him to send out of KPP.
Push comes to shove, this is a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. I would put them in a similar category to Georgia baseball, but Georgia has more power across the board. UK played Georgia and they were able to sweep the Bulldogs in Lexington and but for one game they did a great job of keeping Bulldog scoring down (5 runs in the last two games). That was at a time I was much more comfortable with our pitching scenario, but this past weekend gave us some glimpses of what that looked like. I'm hoping the arms are getting rest and coming back into form a bit.
As I mentioned, the Beavs have a 3.99 ERA as a team, which is fantastic. Aiden May will be on the bump on Saturday and he has a 2.88 ERA with 13 starts, 3 shutouts while striking out 79 and walking 22 in 69.2 innings. Opponents hitting just .210 against him. Push comes to shove, UK needs to be patient and see a lot of pitches against this guy and do what they can to shorten the game for him and get him out early. Even if we don't score a ton, we need to foul off a lot of pitches and get that pitch count up and get to the bullpen.
Saturday seems likely to be Jacob Kmatz, who has a 3.29 ERA with 82 innings pitched, 88 strikeouts and 20 walks while opponents hit just .209. Wer'e really going to be tested this weekend at the plate. You can't get much better in a 3 game series than throwing these two guys to start. Kmatz has given up more runs, a chunk of those by the long ball with 10 of them against him and 15 doubles, but when he keeps the ball down in the zone he's a problem.
From there, even the bullpen doesn't give much reprieve. Bridger Holmes is their closer. He has appeared in 25 games and thrown 32 innings. He's got 13 saves and he's struck out 46 and walked 15 while sporting a 1.29 ERA. Opponents hitting just .148 against him. If they have a lead late, I expect him to shut the door. He could also be a guy that gets them as many as 3 innings. Joey Mundt is also another arm they will rely on heavily. He has a 2.17 ERA in 23 appearances and 29 innings while striking out 31 and walking 11. Opponents hitting just .170. One last one to talk about, AJ Hutcheson. Hutch has an inflated (by Beavs standards anyway) ERA at 4.56, but opponents are hitting just .165 against him. He is largely used in short stints, and has thrown 25.2 innings through 21 appearances. He limited most of the damage he ever gave up to 1 run with just 3 of those appearances having him give up more than 1 earned. So, he can be scored on, but he typically isn't giving up a whole lot. He has thrown about 5 innings or so in his last three appearances and he's not given up a hit. So, now doesn't seem like a great time to face him.
All in all, on paper this team is really scary, but it isn't anything that UK hasn't seen and overcome before. UK has faced Arkansas pitching and done well against them. UK has faced Georgia hitting and our own pitching came up big. This just happens to be one of those weekends where we are facing, on paper, a more complete team. So, UK themselves has to be a complete team. They have done that fairly well. One thing to note is that every pitcher I looked at for Oregon State was a righty, so UK may not have to face too many lefties. Another thing is that Oregon State didn't have the best schedule. They played just 9 Q1 games... UK won 18 Q1 games and played 26 of them. So, UK has been much more battle tested and UK has won those battles a whole lot.
I will point out that an interesting part of this weekend is that the mindset has to change a bit. While this a 3 game series like we have played all year, what is different is that if you win the first 2, the third game doesn't happen. So, in a way a team could decide to throw out all the stops for the first two games and not really plan/prepare for a game 3. I don't know who that favors in this situation, but it could play a bit of a factor.
Coaching wise, UK has a bit of an edge at head coach. Mitch Canham has only been at OSU since the 2020 season as the head man. This will be his second time in a Super Regional as a head coach. However, he's been there as a plan a lot and won the National Championship back to back in 06 and 07, so he can call on that experience to help his team prepare. Mingione has been to the Supers now 3 times, this one being the first one at home. So, I think he now has an idea of what to do and how to do it. He also has a title game experience as an assistant at Miss. State. So, this certainly isn't his first rodeo and that could give him a tiny edge over Canham and the strategy they employ at OSU.
Going to be a heck of a weekend with KPP packed to the gills. Should be fun. Hope this helps to pass the time to get us to the games sooner.
Feels like UK drew a tall order with Oregon State, but theoretically, at this state in an NCAA tournament type situtation nothing is easy. Oregon State is hitting .309 as a team and has a team ERA of 3.98. Those are scary good numbers. Their best hitter is Travis Bazzana who is hitting .415 with 28 home runs... ohh and he's also stolen 16 bases, so just walking him (which he's done 74 times) doesn't mean he's still not a threat to score. He leads the team in that as well with 84 runs, the next closest is a guy with 52. UK wants to be successful this weekend they have to limit any damage that Bazzana does. That means that they have to be really good with the guys hitting before him to ensure that if he does come up and UK does pitch to him that the best he can do is hit solo home runs. If he comes up with runners on the bases then UK is in some trouble. He is likely to hit in the leadoff spot, so that means that UK has to be real good against the bottom half of the lineup. It is somewhat safe for UK to walk Bazana, but the concern there is that hitting behind him is Micah McDowell who is hitting .403 with 6 home runs. Not a huge power threat, but certainly a guy that can produce and knock in runs. Gavin Turley is another big home run threat for the Beavs, hitting 19 of them on the year with a .284 average. Gavin will strike out a ton, so UK needs to challenge him, but not leave anything up for him to send out of KPP.
Push comes to shove, this is a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. I would put them in a similar category to Georgia baseball, but Georgia has more power across the board. UK played Georgia and they were able to sweep the Bulldogs in Lexington and but for one game they did a great job of keeping Bulldog scoring down (5 runs in the last two games). That was at a time I was much more comfortable with our pitching scenario, but this past weekend gave us some glimpses of what that looked like. I'm hoping the arms are getting rest and coming back into form a bit.
As I mentioned, the Beavs have a 3.99 ERA as a team, which is fantastic. Aiden May will be on the bump on Saturday and he has a 2.88 ERA with 13 starts, 3 shutouts while striking out 79 and walking 22 in 69.2 innings. Opponents hitting just .210 against him. Push comes to shove, UK needs to be patient and see a lot of pitches against this guy and do what they can to shorten the game for him and get him out early. Even if we don't score a ton, we need to foul off a lot of pitches and get that pitch count up and get to the bullpen.
Saturday seems likely to be Jacob Kmatz, who has a 3.29 ERA with 82 innings pitched, 88 strikeouts and 20 walks while opponents hit just .209. Wer'e really going to be tested this weekend at the plate. You can't get much better in a 3 game series than throwing these two guys to start. Kmatz has given up more runs, a chunk of those by the long ball with 10 of them against him and 15 doubles, but when he keeps the ball down in the zone he's a problem.
From there, even the bullpen doesn't give much reprieve. Bridger Holmes is their closer. He has appeared in 25 games and thrown 32 innings. He's got 13 saves and he's struck out 46 and walked 15 while sporting a 1.29 ERA. Opponents hitting just .148 against him. If they have a lead late, I expect him to shut the door. He could also be a guy that gets them as many as 3 innings. Joey Mundt is also another arm they will rely on heavily. He has a 2.17 ERA in 23 appearances and 29 innings while striking out 31 and walking 11. Opponents hitting just .170. One last one to talk about, AJ Hutcheson. Hutch has an inflated (by Beavs standards anyway) ERA at 4.56, but opponents are hitting just .165 against him. He is largely used in short stints, and has thrown 25.2 innings through 21 appearances. He limited most of the damage he ever gave up to 1 run with just 3 of those appearances having him give up more than 1 earned. So, he can be scored on, but he typically isn't giving up a whole lot. He has thrown about 5 innings or so in his last three appearances and he's not given up a hit. So, now doesn't seem like a great time to face him.
All in all, on paper this team is really scary, but it isn't anything that UK hasn't seen and overcome before. UK has faced Arkansas pitching and done well against them. UK has faced Georgia hitting and our own pitching came up big. This just happens to be one of those weekends where we are facing, on paper, a more complete team. So, UK themselves has to be a complete team. They have done that fairly well. One thing to note is that every pitcher I looked at for Oregon State was a righty, so UK may not have to face too many lefties. Another thing is that Oregon State didn't have the best schedule. They played just 9 Q1 games... UK won 18 Q1 games and played 26 of them. So, UK has been much more battle tested and UK has won those battles a whole lot.
I will point out that an interesting part of this weekend is that the mindset has to change a bit. While this a 3 game series like we have played all year, what is different is that if you win the first 2, the third game doesn't happen. So, in a way a team could decide to throw out all the stops for the first two games and not really plan/prepare for a game 3. I don't know who that favors in this situation, but it could play a bit of a factor.
Coaching wise, UK has a bit of an edge at head coach. Mitch Canham has only been at OSU since the 2020 season as the head man. This will be his second time in a Super Regional as a head coach. However, he's been there as a plan a lot and won the National Championship back to back in 06 and 07, so he can call on that experience to help his team prepare. Mingione has been to the Supers now 3 times, this one being the first one at home. So, I think he now has an idea of what to do and how to do it. He also has a title game experience as an assistant at Miss. State. So, this certainly isn't his first rodeo and that could give him a tiny edge over Canham and the strategy they employ at OSU.
Going to be a heck of a weekend with KPP packed to the gills. Should be fun. Hope this helps to pass the time to get us to the games sooner.
Thanks. Unbelievable preview.
Obviously, we have to play our best to survive and advance.
Those 2 OSU starters are worrisome plus they have backup.
Tough matchup but we’re on a roll and due. At home and in great spirits.
Will our SEC experience be a big bonus? That was a long grind.
Last week it looked liked our pitching improved being out of the league and teams not as familiar with UK.
Obviously, we have to play our best to survive and advance.
Those 2 OSU starters are worrisome plus they have backup.
Tough matchup but we’re on a roll and due. At home and in great spirits.
Will our SEC experience be a big bonus? That was a long grind.
Last week it looked liked our pitching improved being out of the league and teams not as familiar with UK.
I felt better about it before reading this lol. Bottom line, I just trust this UK team. Feels like they find a way to get it done! Can’t wait to watch.
Haha sorry. Wish I could just hand waive the weekend away and say that it should be a cakewalk, but I doubt that happens. Still, it's the super regional and everyone who is here has earned it, except maybe Florida (haha). You get to this point and you have got to play your best baseball. A great part of this is that UK has had an amazing season and even when they didn't play their best baseball, they still found ways to win the series. I don't think we were ever out of any series. So, in this format UK has done extremely well against some of the best teams in the nation. Confidence should be high as this is nothing we haven't seen before.
Great writeup, though the more I read, the more nervous I am about facing OSU. I guess there are no easy passes at this point, but would rather be playing Uconn or Evansville to get to Omaha.
Great points, especially:
1. Florida shouldn't be in the tournament, but now I think they have better than even odds of getting to Omaha.
2. UK has been competitive in every series but Kennesaw (weird sentence). They had every opportunity to win the sunday game against Tennessee (up four runs halfway through the game, and nearly came back in the 9th). UK should have won the USC series. No reason why UK should not have a better than 50% chance to win this weekend.
haha I kind of discussed something similar to that on the House of Blue thread. Not quite pop time, but did look at the catchers they use and how good they are at throwing out runners to see how much freedom we might have on the base paths.
I'll copy and paste it here.
Looks like they do some rotating at catcher. So, this creates kind of an interesting situation for them. I don't know what critera they use to determine which catcher plays, but both have played about 30ish games.
Wilson Weber played both the UC Irvine games this past weekend. Runners have stolen against him 18 times this year and he's only thrown out 2 of them. However, he's hitting like .295.
Tanner Smith is the other one. He played in the Tulane game. He hits just .225. However, he has given up 11 stolen bases and has thrown out 13 attempts. I am not sure how that works. How do you have more caught stealing than attempts?
So, if you're Oregon State, do you try to limit UK's running game with the extremely talented (apparently?) catcher that hits poorly, or do you go with more offense and let the UK running game have more freedom?
One other stat I should have included... opponents have stolen 30 bags on 48 attempts against OSU.
One aspect I love about the Mingione offense is the baserunning. I know we might get a little silly or too aggressive at times and run ourselves into outs, but I love the chaos it creates. It makes the defense make plays and in college baseball that often leads to mistakes. It leads to a ball sailing into center on a pickoff move and suddenly you're only 90 feet away from scoring. Then the options, especially with less than 2 outs, to get that run in become enormous. Again, especially in college baseball where pitchers are less fine and catchers are less perfect and you get more passed balls and wild pitches. Then the pitcher tightens a bit and a mistake pitch leads to another double. It is just a fantastic way to grab more runs even if you're not hitting the ball extremely well, and sometimes those extra runs are the difference. I definitely agree that it is extremely inflating to a pitcher. A guy gets on base on a walk and a pitcher might be able to shake it off and get the next guy, but if he moves up another 90 then suddenly the pressure builds more and it's no longer just a guy over on first, but a guy in scoring position. Then the pitcher also has to worry about him taking third and you get a guy like McCarthy over on second and he's dancing and being an absolute menace to try to distract. It's a big mind fk.
I think UK doesn't change its style even with the better catcher. We might do it less with the better one, but we're still going to put pressure on him to make those plays. I would really like to know how he has had 11 attempts but has thrown out 13. Maybe a lot of back picks? So, that might be something UK has to look out for. I even looked to see if maybe the guy had some time on the mound where he might have gotten some pick offs to work, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I just don't know that I have ever seen a player have more caught stealing than steal attempts against them. Even the best catchers in the majors only throw out runners trying to steal about 30ish percent of the time (fun fact... former UK player Luke Maile is at 30.24 percent on his career, 9th best in the majors for active players. Did Maile play more C or 1B for us? My old mind can't remember). So, I have to imagine there is something about this stat that is just skewed or just downright wrong.
Looking a bit deeper at the stats... two things to note:
1. OSU has only thrown 33 wild pitches on the year. UK, by comparison, has thrown 48. So, their pitchers have done a pretty good job of keeping the ball out of the turf.
2. OSU has hit 86 batters this year. UK has been hit 113 times and have hit their opponents 80. OSU opponents have only hit OSU hitters 60 times. So, while they might not throw the ball away, it looks like they might give up a good chunk of free bags with hit batters. This will definitely play into UK's favor since WE DON'T MOVE!
Wilson Weber played both the UC Irvine games this past weekend. Runners have stolen against him 18 times this year and he's only thrown out 2 of them. However, he's hitting like .295.
Tanner Smith is the other one. He played in the Tulane game. He hits just .225. However, he has given up 11 stolen bases and has thrown out 13 attempts. I am not sure how that works. How do you have more caught stealing than attempts?
So, if you're Oregon State, do you try to limit UK's running game with the extremely talented (apparently?) catcher that hits poorly, or do you go with more offense and let the UK running game have more freedom?
One other stat I should have included... opponents have stolen 30 bags on 48 attempts against OSU.
One aspect I love about the Mingione offense is the baserunning. I know we might get a little silly or too aggressive at times and run ourselves into outs, but I love the chaos it creates. It makes the defense make plays and in college baseball that often leads to mistakes. It leads to a ball sailing into center on a pickoff move and suddenly you're only 90 feet away from scoring. Then the options, especially with less than 2 outs, to get that run in become enormous. Again, especially in college baseball where pitchers are less fine and catchers are less perfect and you get more passed balls and wild pitches. Then the pitcher tightens a bit and a mistake pitch leads to another double. It is just a fantastic way to grab more runs even if you're not hitting the ball extremely well, and sometimes those extra runs are the difference. I definitely agree that it is extremely inflating to a pitcher. A guy gets on base on a walk and a pitcher might be able to shake it off and get the next guy, but if he moves up another 90 then suddenly the pressure builds more and it's no longer just a guy over on first, but a guy in scoring position. Then the pitcher also has to worry about him taking third and you get a guy like McCarthy over on second and he's dancing and being an absolute menace to try to distract. It's a big mind fk.
I think UK doesn't change its style even with the better catcher. We might do it less with the better one, but we're still going to put pressure on him to make those plays. I would really like to know how he has had 11 attempts but has thrown out 13. Maybe a lot of back picks? So, that might be something UK has to look out for. I even looked to see if maybe the guy had some time on the mound where he might have gotten some pick offs to work, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I just don't know that I have ever seen a player have more caught stealing than steal attempts against them. Even the best catchers in the majors only throw out runners trying to steal about 30ish percent of the time (fun fact... former UK player Luke Maile is at 30.24 percent on his career, 9th best in the majors for active players. Did Maile play more C or 1B for us? My old mind can't remember). So, I have to imagine there is something about this stat that is just skewed or just downright wrong.
Looking a bit deeper at the stats... two things to note:
1. OSU has only thrown 33 wild pitches on the year. UK, by comparison, has thrown 48. So, their pitchers have done a pretty good job of keeping the ball out of the turf.
2. OSU has hit 86 batters this year. UK has been hit 113 times and have hit their opponents 80. OSU opponents have only hit OSU hitters 60 times. So, while they might not throw the ball away, it looks like they might give up a good chunk of free bags with hit batters. This will definitely play into UK's favor since WE DON'T MOVE!
I think looking at the fielding percentages, UK is significantly better on paper and we all know they like to put pressure on opposing defenses. For me, this will be the difference in the game. Go CATS!
Maybe it’s just the optimist in me, but I can’t help but believe that these numbers are just inflated from playing in the PAC. It was worse than the Big Ten and Sun Belt this year. Don’t feel like you can draw much from their regional either with the 3rd best team in the Big West, an upset American winner and a Southland team.
We get this west coast juggernaut and UT got...Evansville. guess getting the top seed mattered a lot.
I hear you, but their consistently poor fielding percentages favor UKs aggressive offensive run generation approach. End of the day, it’s which players make the big plays and execute. Feels very 50/50 for me.
I wish we had the Fri- Sun schedule to give OSU one less day. But it’s going to be tough overall. Hoping the bats stay hot and we can limit the amount of relievers we use.
I think the crowd can definitely have an impact if UK can put the ball in play.
I think the crowd can definitely have an impact if UK can put the ball in play.
Any indication if Poos is going tonight
Let’s close this series out tomorrow please, please, please!
this is one time I’m happy to rub the ole I told ya so in, my baseball brother 😝 Just happened to be the catcher with a bakers dozen errors.
Let’s close this series out tomorrow please, please, please!
Boy, did you ever hit the nail on the head with this one. That seventh inning was all about putting pressure on their defense and needless to say that they did not handle it well.
I wouldn’t mind a repeat this evening 😀
