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Comebakatz3 - how do you see the matchup with NC State?

Kybluedude

All-SEC
Nov 19, 2005
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You’re our baseball whisperer so how do you see the upcoming bs NC State?

I referred back to your OSU preview often during the games. It was fantastic.

You had to know I was going to ask you for another preview!
 
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Let's start with pitching:

Seems to me that UK will face Sam Highfill this Saturday. 6'2 204 pound righty with a 5.06 ERA across 80 innings of work and 16 appearances, all starts. He has struck out 75 and walked 41. Has a bit of a tendency to leave the ball up as he's given up 18 home runs. Opponents hitting just .225 against him. So, he has the ability to get some strikeouts, but he can struggle at times. Gave up 3 runs in his two starts this tournament, but before they NC State faced Duke in the ACC Tournament and he gave up a 6 spot. If he is in a groove he can go the distance as he's done once this season, but I think he is typically going to be around the 5 inning mark.

All in all, I am just not overly impressed with this NC State pitching staff, at least not by the numbers. Still, they're here, so they have made it work. They have a 6.09 ERA as a team. They have 4 guys that they love to use:

Jacob Dudan has a 4.40 ERA as a righty freshman with 47 innings under his belt over 26 appearances 0 starts. He has struck out 55 and walked 33 and opponents hit a meager .212. He last pitched on Monday, but he went just 1.2 innings, so it's pretty likely he could be used on Saturday.

Cooper Consiglio has a 4.97 ERA as a lefty freshman and he has thrown 41.2 innings with 15 appearances and 5 starts. He has 38 strikeouts and 24 walks with opponents hitting just .200. He did not pitch at all this past weekend. He threw against USC in the first weekend and went 2.1 innings.

Shane Van Dam is a 6'6 righty sophomore with a 4.58 ERA across 37.1 innings. He has struck out 38 and walked 30. Opponents hitting .216.

Derrick Smith will be their closer. He is unhittable to a degree with a .178 average against him. He has 8 saves across 23 appearances and 28 innings of work. He is a righty freshman and he did go against Georgia on Monday and threw 3 innings. I still expect to see him if it is a tight game, but it might only be in a bit of a desperation type spot. He has 41 Ks with just 9 walks. Seems like he can give up the long ball with 4 of those and 5 doubles against. So, would make sense that he throws hard and when he gets hit he gets hit hard as half the hits he has given up have been either doubles or home runs. He has also hit 5 batters, which is quite a lot for 28 innings.

Again, not a lot about this pitching staff seems to jump out as concerning and scary. There are a lot of young arms, and while it is UK's first experience in the CWS, I am hoping the moment might be a bit bigger for some of the NC State young guns instead of UK's more experienced slingers. Smith is a hell of a closer, we do not want to see him. If we see him and we're behind then it might stay that way.
 
Hitting wise NC State seems to be your standard solid team. Hitting .290 as a team overall with about 99 home runs as a team. They are 44 of 55 on stolen bases, so they got a couple guys that will run, but after those two they get real selective on who might move on the paths. Mostly it will be Brandon Butterworth (now I want pancakes) and Luke Nixon who have 13 and 14 stolen bases respectively. No one else has above 7.

The key to this offense is the top 4 hitters. Once we get past those guys things take a pretty sizeable dip in regarding to average and threats.

Serrano will leadoff and play center. He's hitting .297 with 9 home runs and 9 doubles. He has stolen 7 bags on 8 attempts. Struck out 33 times and walked 31. So, he has a solid eye at the plate.

Pennington Garrett will be hitting next in the 2 more likely than not and he'll be playing 1B. Garrett is the next threat hitting .348 with 26 doubles and 18 home runs. Similarly, he has 43Ks to 30 walks.

The big threat is Alex Makarewicz (I have no idea how you pronounce that, and not even sure I spelled it right). He is hitting .380 as a grad student transfer from ECU. He has 25 doubles and 22 home runs. He will strike out a bit with 49Ks to 25 walks. He will be at third and hitting in the 3 hole.

Four hole hitter is Jacob Cozart who is hitting .300 with 7 doubles and 19 home runs and 1 triple. He will be behind the dish as he has been for almost every game. He will strike out a good chunk, but he has a real good eye as well with 47 strikeouts to 49 walks. Pitchers might be fearing this guy as a hitter, or they might just be trying to get past him and walking him a good chunk. Get through these three and the threat goes down pretty significantly from there.

After that the averages dip quite a bit. Brandon Butterworth is a steal threat. He's hitting 5th a chunk and has 12 doubles 2 triples and 7 home runs to go with his 13 steals. More walks (40) than strikeouts (36) so, he's going to be real patient up there.

Luke Nixon is the other steal threat and will likely hit in the 7 hole. He's hitting .246 with 5 doubles a triple and 4 home runs. Equal walks to strikeouts at 33 and 14 steals. He leads the team in hit by pitches.

Noah Soles is in right and usually hitting 9th at .221 with 6 doubles and 5 home runs. Definitely don't want the 9 hole to burn you with a deep ball. He has 18 strikeouts to 9 walks and has an OBP of a solid .392 given his .221 overall average. 5 steals for him, so he is a tiny threat.

Alex Sosa will hit 6th most likely and DH with a .226 average with just 1 double and 6 home runs. He has an upside down margin on K/BB with 31Ks to 19 walks. Sosa is a catcher, but it seems like he rarely gets time behind there.

Matt Heavner often plays 2nd and hits 8th. He's hitting .264 with 4 doubles and 2 home runs. 17Ks to 10 walks but he's been hit by pitches 7 times.

All in all, the big deal about this NC State team, IMO, is that they are real patient. They are going to make opposing pitchers and defenses beat them. They will take walks and they aren't going to strike out a whole lot (only about 19 percent of the time). So, Pooser is going to need to be throwing strikes and filling up the zone, or the Wolfpack will be more than happy to take the free bags. Still, UK has not been a team that is a strikeout heavy type of team. We're very reliant on defense behind us, and so this style bodes well for us as long as we're keeping pitches down in the zone and throwing strikes.

Behing the plate Cozart has been real good with a .994 fielding percentage and he's thrown out 13 runners and given up 27 stolen bases. He's had just 9 passed balls on the year. So, he is going to likely do a pretty decent job behind the plate. As a team NC State has given up 35 stolen bags all year on 56 attempts. However, I doubt they've played a team quite like this UK one.
 
Hitting wise NC State seems to be your standard solid team. Hitting .290 as a team overall with about 99 home runs as a team. They are 44 of 55 on stolen bases, so they got a couple guys that will run, but after those two they get real selective on who might move on the paths. Mostly it will be Brandon Butterworth (now I want pancakes) and Luke Nixon who have 13 and 14 stolen bases respectively. No one else has above 7.

The key to this offense is the top 4 hitters. Once we get past those guys things take a pretty sizeable dip in regarding to average and threats.

Serrano will leadoff and play center. He's hitting .297 with 9 home runs and 9 doubles. He has stolen 7 bags on 8 attempts. Struck out 33 times and walked 31. So, he has a solid eye at the plate.

Pennington Garrett will be hitting next in the 2 more likely than not and he'll be playing 1B. Garrett is the next threat hitting .348 with 26 doubles and 18 home runs. Similarly, he has 43Ks to 30 walks.

The big threat is Alex Makarewicz (I have no idea how you pronounce that, and not even sure I spelled it right). He is hitting .380 as a grad student transfer from ECU. He has 25 doubles and 22 home runs. He will strike out a bit with 49Ks to 25 walks. He will be at third and hitting in the 3 hole.

Four hole hitter is Jacob Cozart who is hitting .300 with 7 doubles and 19 home runs and 1 triple. He will be behind the dish as he has been for almost every game. He will strike out a good chunk, but he has a real good eye as well with 47 strikeouts to 49 walks. Pitchers might be fearing this guy as a hitter, or they might just be trying to get past him and walking him a good chunk. Get through these three and the threat goes down pretty significantly from there.

After that the averages dip quite a bit. Brandon Butterworth is a steal threat. He's hitting 5th a chunk and has 12 doubles 2 triples and 7 home runs to go with his 13 steals. More walks (40) than strikeouts (36) so, he's going to be real patient up there.

Luke Nixon is the other steal threat and will likely hit in the 7 hole. He's hitting .246 with 5 doubles a triple and 4 home runs. Equal walks to strikeouts at 33 and 14 steals. He leads the team in hit by pitches.

Noah Soles is in right and usually hitting 9th at .221 with 6 doubles and 5 home runs. Definitely don't want the 9 hole to burn you with a deep ball. He has 18 strikeouts to 9 walks and has an OBP of a solid .392 given his .221 overall average. 5 steals for him, so he is a tiny threat.

Alex Sosa will hit 6th most likely and DH with a .226 average with just 1 double and 6 home runs. He has an upside down margin on K/BB with 31Ks to 19 walks. Sosa is a catcher, but it seems like he rarely gets time behind there.

Matt Heavner often plays 2nd and hits 8th. He's hitting .264 with 4 doubles and 2 home runs. 17Ks to 10 walks but he's been hit by pitches 7 times.

All in all, the big deal about this NC State team, IMO, is that they are real patient. They are going to make opposing pitchers and defenses beat them. They will take walks and they aren't going to strike out a whole lot (only about 19 percent of the time). So, Pooser is going to need to be throwing strikes and filling up the zone, or the Wolfpack will be more than happy to take the free bags. Still, UK has not been a team that is a strikeout heavy type of team. We're very reliant on defense behind us, and so this style bodes well for us as long as we're keeping pitches down in the zone and throwing strikes.

Behing the plate Cozart has been real good with a .994 fielding percentage and he's thrown out 13 runners and given up 27 stolen bases. He's had just 9 passed balls on the year. So, he is going to likely do a pretty decent job behind the plate. As a team NC State has given up 35 stolen bags all year on 56 attempts. However, I doubt they've played a team quite like this UK one.
Awesome job! For any MLB fans Luke Nixon is the son of Former Red Sox OF Trot Nixon.
 
So I looked up NC States series against Louisville. I feel like the Cards are similar to Kentucky in the way they are aggressive on the base-paths and will manufacture runs. Louisville swept them. I think the Cats have much better defense and pitching and should be able to get it done.
 
So I looked up NC States series against Louisville. I feel like the Cards are similar to Kentucky in the way they are aggressive on the base-paths and will manufacture runs. Louisville swept them. I think the Cats have much better defense and pitching and should be able to get it done.
We are a different team now, than when we played Louisville. We are healthy. Finally. All the bad stats cited, can be attributed to mid week games that we were just trying to get thru. Our pitching depth for the first half of the season was for crap. Homer stats can be misleading when playing in Omaha. That park plays big. Small ball, which y’all excel at, is key.
 
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We are a different team now, than when we played Louisville. We are healthy. Finally. All the bad stats cited, can be attributed to mid week games that we were just trying to get thru. Our pitching depth for the first half of the season was for crap. Homer stats can be misleading when playing in Omaha. That park plays big. Small ball, which y’all excel at, is key.
Mostly comparing the base stealing of Kentucky and Louisville. Both teams put pressure on pitchers and catchers and capitalize on defensive mistakes.
 
Let's start with pitching:

Seems to me that UK will face Sam Highfill this Saturday. 6'2 204 pound righty with a 5.06 ERA across 80 innings of work and 16 appearances, all starts. He has struck out 75 and walked 41. Has a bit of a tendency to leave the ball up as he's given up 18 home runs. Opponents hitting just .225 against him. So, he has the ability to get some strikeouts, but he can struggle at times. Gave up 3 runs in his two starts this tournament, but before they NC State faced Duke in the ACC Tournament and he gave up a 6 spot. If he is in a groove he can go the distance as he's done once this season, but I think he is typically going to be around the 5 inning mark.

All in all, I am just not overly impressed with this NC State pitching staff, at least not by the numbers. Still, they're here, so they have made it work. They have a 6.09 ERA as a team. They have 4 guys that they love to use:

Jacob Dudan has a 4.40 ERA as a righty freshman with 47 innings under his belt over 26 appearances 0 starts. He has struck out 55 and walked 33 and opponents hit a meager .212. He last pitched on Monday, but he went just 1.2 innings, so it's pretty likely he could be used on Saturday.

Cooper Consiglio has a 4.97 ERA as a lefty freshman and he has thrown 41.2 innings with 15 appearances and 5 starts. He has 38 strikeouts and 24 walks with opponents hitting just .200. He did not pitch at all this past weekend. He threw against USC in the first weekend and went 2.1 innings.

Shane Van Dam is a 6'6 righty sophomore with a 4.58 ERA across 37.1 innings. He has struck out 38 and walked 30. Opponents hitting .216.

Derrick Smith will be their closer. He is unhittable to a degree with a .178 average against him. He has 8 saves across 23 appearances and 28 innings of work. He is a righty freshman and he did go against Georgia on Monday and threw 3 innings. I still expect to see him if it is a tight game, but it might only be in a bit of a desperation type spot. He has 41 Ks with just 9 walks. Seems like he can give up the long ball with 4 of those and 5 doubles against. So, would make sense that he throws hard and when he gets hit he gets hit hard as half the hits he has given up have been either doubles or home runs. He has also hit 5 batters, which is quite a lot for 28 innings.

Again, not a lot about this pitching staff seems to jump out as concerning and scary. There are a lot of young arms, and while it is UK's first experience in the CWS, I am hoping the moment might be a bit bigger for some of the NC State young guns instead of UK's more experienced slingers. Smith is a hell of a closer, we do not want to see him. If we see him and we're behind then it might stay that way.
The two things I’m looking for is if there is any sluggish start from UK after a very emotional win to make their first CWS. Given this is the programs first appearance, I’m hoping the guys keep feeding on that as positive energy and not pressure. From here on out, everything for me is house money. Would love to win it all, but am thankful to be at the table with a chance.

The other thing is if the pitching staff continues to perform at such an outstanding level. We know the defense is consistent, but am hoping the pitching performance wasnt an outlier.
 
We are a different team now, than when we played Louisville. We are healthy. Finally. All the bad stats cited, can be attributed to mid week games that we were just trying to get thru. Our pitching depth for the first half of the season was for crap. Homer stats can be misleading when playing in Omaha. That park plays big. Small ball, which y’all excel at, is key.
should be a great series!!!
 
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we need to go 5-0 in the CWS. Speak it into existence. Congrats to Ming on COY.

Now go get some of those good Indiana St. players/pitchers.
Vegas has made UK the third choice, so even they give UK a legitimate shot!

As far as portal players, I think Ming looks for specific types of players. With UKs success the past 2 years and being in the SEC, I believe there will be no shortage of players and pitchers that they will be able to select from.
 
Not that it is relevant to this season, but I don't think we have played NC State since the 2017 Lexington regional, when we played them 3 times, losing the first time, and then beating them twice in the finals to win the regional. I was there. It was magical. Does anyone remember us playing the Wolfpack more recently?
 
Not that it is relevant to this season, but I don't think we have played NC State since the 2017 Lexington regional, when we played them 3 times, losing the first time, and then beating them twice in the finals to win the regional. I was there. It was magical. Does anyone remember us playing the Wolfpack more recently?

I was there too. Glad we got that moment before the Cliff was done for good. The outfield party deck was awesome.
 
Not that it is relevant to this season, but I don't think we have played NC State since the 2017 Lexington regional, when we played them 3 times, losing the first time, and then beating them twice in the finals to win the regional. I was there. It was magical. Does anyone remember us playing the Wolfpack more recently?

Don't think we have. We typically don't play an ACC team outside of UL and the tournament.
 
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