Coen 2021 v. Coen 2023

[gamecockcat]

LC was very good in '21 and still has room to improve, imo. Thought I'd compare what he's working with in '23 with what he had in '21.

OL - left side this year (Cox, Horsey) should be as good or better than 21. Eli is probably not as good as Fortner in 21 but maybe not as big a gap as one might think. Right side 23 will be worse. DK was much better than any RT on the team right now. Burton could prove to be a wash at RG (or whoever takes over). 21 OL with the advantage, remains to be seen by how much.

TE - 23 with Kattus, Bates, Dingle, Cummings (?) should be better than 21. Upshaw got hurt early and Cummings was pretty much the lone pass catcher although Bates played a lot. 23 has the advantage and could be quite significant if Dingle and Kattus continue to improve.

WR - 21 had Wan'dale who was spectacular. Pretty sure no one on the 23 roster will be as good as WR but the 23 WR room has several who are much better than Ali, imo. Brown, Key and TR are all better and this FR Anthony is supposed to be a big time talent. Others like Crowdus and Alexander may play significant snaps, too. I give the edge to 23 for the quality throughout the WR corps accepting that Wan'dale was better than anyone in the room right now. More really good weapons beat one great weapon in my mind.

RB - Similar to the WR, no one on 23 squad will be better than CRod. But, behind CRod, I'd argue the talent was pretty thin. I expect Davis, Wright, Wilcox, Jefferson, McClain to, collectively produce as much as the 21 RB room. We may miss CRod's short yardage ability but, otherwise, I'd think we'll be about the same. A slight edge to 21, mainly for short yardage situations but, overall, pretty even.

QB - This one is trickier. Levis has bigger arm, more of a threat on called running plays, more durable. Leary has a good arm, more experienced, presumably better pocket presence and ability to read defenses. IIRC, Levis was a 65% passer in 21 so I don't think Leary will be significantly better there. I think 23 will see fewer sacks due to Leary's ability to step up, buy time and get rid of the ball. Leary will have a lot more weapons to work with. Levis was more of a threat to stretch the field but, honestly, didn't complete that many bombs. If Leary stays healthy, a big IF, I think this will be a wash between 21 and 23 if not a slight edge to 23.

Assuming the OL isn't significantly worse than 21, I believe we should see a better offense in 23 than we did in 21. Certainly, I'm excited to see what Coen can do with all the pieces we've assembled. Gotta keep Leary healthy, though. Didn't worry too much about Levis but Leary has a history. Hope Coen can really develop QB2 and have them.ready just in case.

 

[SPECT imaging]

LC was very good in '21 and still has room to improve, imo. Thought I'd compare what he's working with in '23 with what he had in '21.

OL - left side this year (Cox, Horsey) should be as good or better than 21. Eli is probably not as good as Fortner in 21 but maybe not as big a gap as one might think. Right side 23 will be worse. DK was much better than any RT on the team right now. Burton could prove to be a wash at RG (or whoever takes over). 21 OL with the advantage, remains to be seen by how much.

TE - 23 with Kattus, Bates, Dingle, Cummings (?) should be better than 21. Upshaw got hurt early and Cummings was pretty much the lone pass catcher although Bates played a lot. 23 has the advantage and could be quite significant if Dingle and Kattus continue to improve.

WR - 21 had Wan'dale who was spectacular. Pretty sure no one on the 23 roster will be as good as WR but the 23 WR room has several who are much better than Ali, imo. Brown, Key and TR are all better and this FR Anthony is supposed to be a big time talent. Others like Crowdus and Alexander may play significant snaps, too. I give the edge to 23 for the quality throughout the WR corps accepting that Wan'dale was better than anyone in the room right now. More really good weapons beat one great weapon in my mind.

RB - Similar to the WR, no one on 23 squad will be better than CRod. But, behind CRod, I'd argue the talent was pretty thin. I expect Davis, Wright, Wilcox, Jefferson, McClain to, collectively produce as much as the 21 RB room. We may miss CRod's short yardage ability but, otherwise, I'd think we'll be about the same. A slight edge to 21, mainly for short yardage situations but, overall, pretty even.

QB - This one is trickier. Levis has bigger arm, more of a threat on called running plays, more durable. Leary has a good arm, more experienced, presumably better pocket presence and ability to read defenses. IIRC, Levis was a 65% passer in 21 so I don't think Leary will be significantly better there. I think 23 will see fewer sacks due to Leary's ability to step up, buy time and get rid of the ball. Leary will have a lot more weapons to work with. Levis was more of a threat to stretch the field but, honestly, didn't complete that many bombs. If Leary stays healthy, a big IF, I think this will be a wash between 21 and 23 if not a slight edge to 23.

Assuming the OL isn't significantly worse than 21, I believe we should see a better offense in 23 than we did in 21. Certainly, I'm excited to see what Coen can do with all the pieces we've assembled. Gotta keep Leary healthy, though. Didn't worry too much about Levis but Leary has a history. Hope Coen can really develop QB2 and have them.ready just in case.

I agree with almost everything you said. But here are a few points and counterpoints.

There isn't anyone named Alexander on Kentucky's roster.

When Levis' career at Kentucky began, he had a couple of poor games before things started to click. In particular, the Mississippi State game in Starkville was a nightmare. Eventually, Coen made a good quarterback out of him. I think Coen and Leary will click faster because Leary will be there for spring practice and because Leary is already a polished quarterback.

It has been said that Wilcox will be a star. We saw what Davis did to us when he played for Vandy. With those two, our running back room should not have a dropoff. Getting Coen back helps.

Jager Burton's main drawbacks this year were inexperience and lower body strength. Burton was highly recruited. Linemen need time to develop. With Horsey coming back and Bowles transfering in, Burton will have to fight for his job. Once Horsey graduates, Burton will have a clear path and should have a good career.

Coen says rebuilding the BBW is his top priority. From his mouth to God's ears! I feel confident Marques Cox will be an upgrade at left tackle. Things to watch this spring will be development of Jeremy Flax and Eli Cox. If Flax cannot get better in pass protection, Deondre Buford could win more playing time.

 

[YaketySax]

I don’t think there’s a single skill player in 2023 that is individually better than Wandale or CRod but the collective talent is higher. Lots of options among WR and TE for our smart OC.

The offensive line will have to be coached up. A lot of players were young last year (3 starters had less than two years lettering) or played out of position due to need (Horsey) so there’s some reasonable hope for a quality bump btwn another year of development and transfers. Still, it was so bad last year that it’s hard to see the unit catapulting into Top 30 OL nationwide too. Could happen but also not something I’d bet on. Just being above average would be a success with tangible results.

If Leary is healthy I kinda think we’ll see better QB play generally. Less “hero ball f@ck it” deep throws into double coverage but also less scrambling abilities. The wild card here is Leary’s health.

UK could be better next year and still finish 7-5 again with its schedule.

 

[K_TIME]

Great topic

- if cox is legit at LT…then I’ll feel a ton better on 23 squad. But if he’s not then we’re in a ton of a mess still up front
- i disagree that Burton and Eli cox 21 at guard is a push. Burton might improve but he was pretty bad last year Ann’s cox was very solid in 21
- I’d argue coaching is a potent huge drop off. As much as we do not like wolford…he’s did a good job and Yenser was a disaster…even cox and Horsey didn’t play as well

Wr room is without question better in 23. Not even close even as great as Wandale was

Rb is hard call. Crod is a ton better than Ray Davis. I can’t comment on Wilcox

Leary vs Levi’s is a good debate. The ability to run wjtb Levis was huge on 21….Leary isn’t going to do that

All in all 32 pts a game in 21…i think we can get really close to that outpt. And I’ll bet Leary won’t be as TO prone as Levi’s. So I’m excited for the offense next year

 

[gamecockcat]

I agree with almost everything you said. But here are a few points and counterpoints.

There isn't anyone named Alexander on Kentucky's roster.

When Levis' career at Kentucky began, he had a couple of poor games before things started to click. In particular, the Mississippi State game in Starkville was a nightmare. Eventually, Coen made a good quarterback out of him. I think Coen and Leary will click faster because Leary will be there for spring practice and because Leary is already a polished quarterback.

It has been said that Wilcox will be a star. We saw what Davis did to us when he played for Vandy. With those two, our running back room should not have a dropoff. Getting Coen back helps.

Jager Burton's main drawbacks this year were inexperience and lower body strength. Burton was highly recruited. Linemen need time to develop. With Horsey coming back and Bowles transfering in, Burton will have to fight for his job. Once Horsey graduates, Burton will have a clear path and should have a good career.

Coen says rebuilding the BBW is his top priority. From his mouth to God's ears! I feel confident Marques Cox will be an upgrade at left tackle. Things to watch this spring will be development of Jeremy Flax and Eli Cox. If Flax cannot get better in pass protection, Deondre Buford could win more playing time.

My bad. I meant the WR Anthony who is supposed to be a burner. Also, true FR Brown and Porter could contribute early.

As for the BBW, I thought Burton improved late in the year and may still get better. Bowles might also figure in the mix. Eli was really good at OG so I can see a drop-off from 21 but maybe not as much. Buford should earn more PT either at OG or RT, imo. For now, the right side of the OL has several questions and needs shoring up, for sure. Left side seems pretty settled. I'd love to see Hall, Rodriguez, Jones or Wohlabugh take a big step forward and solidify that right side.

I think LC will definitely use our TEs more in 23 than in 21. Will be interested to see how much the RBs figure into the passing game.

 

[The-Hack]

Great discussion.

We have reasonable hope for dramatic improvement in the O-line. Burton and others have every incentive to be working hard in the winter and Spring. The whole BBW narrative that began in 2016 and closely coincided with New Year’s Day Bowl wins, high draft selections, and All-American recognition lifted the O-line and program from decades of national obscurity to prominence.

I’m sure the folks involved want it back to the level of 2018-2021.

At QB, we will see a heady player who will not attempt to run through tackles, but seems mobile and cognizant of his relief valves/receivers, and lateral escape routes. If he and his O-line can reduce sacks by half, that alone will give the offense a huge statistical leg up on third down conversions.

Normally, hoping to reduce sacks by fifty percent would sound foolish: but not when you gave up 47 on the season.

Heck, we won seven games, and lost two in the last minute of the game, with Vandy and Ole Miss.

We lost USCe and Iowa due to the lack of our Starting QB.

Given the close nature of this “game of inches,” simply correcting our long-snapping, along with marginal offensive line improvements could lift us back to a double-digit win total.

I suspect others are viewing the season with a very unusual statistic in the forefront: 35-5 . . . Leary’s TD to interception ratio in 2021 at NC State.

Combine something close to that efficiency with a Top 15 defense, and we might be playing on January 1, again.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Imo QB play will be much elevated and the entire offense will look much much better because of it. Will made tons of wow plays, unfortunately it was about 5/1 bad/good.

Leary will look much more like a distributor and avoid those incredibly head scratching negative plays that constantly hobbled our offense last two years.

OL should be good/really good for mostly the reasons stated above.