Coaches Vs NCAAT Top 4 Seeds 2010-15: Cal 11-3, K 6-1, Izzo 5-3, Roy W 0-5

[dlh331]

Most would agree that the teams seeded 1-4 are certainly better "armed" to win a title. Elite Coaches versus those teams seeded 1-4 in the NCAAT from 2010-15:

Calipari 11-3
Coach K 6-1
Izzo 5-3
Bo Ryan 4-2
Pitino 3-1
Donovan (now in the NBA) 3-2
Sean Miller 3-4
Bill Self 2-2
Thad Matta 1-3
Roy Williams a woeful 0-5

2 things about Calipari:
1. The 11-3 record is remarkable. A breakdown:
A. 2-1 vs #1 Seeds
B. 4-1 vs #2 Seeds
C. 2-1 vs #3 Seeds
D. 3-0 vs #4 Seeds

2. Why in the heck has UK had to play so many more top 4 seeds....double what ANY other elite team has

Darryl

 

[jarms24]

Nice data! Thanks!

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Most would agree that the teams seeded 1-4 are certainly better "armed" to win a title. Elite Coaches versus those teams seeded 1-4 in the NCAAT from 2010-15:

Calipari 11-3
Coach K 6-1
Izzo 5-3
Bo Ryan 4-2
Pitino 3-1
Donovan (now in the NBA) 3-2
Sean Miller 3-4
Bill Self 2-2
Thad Matta 1-3
Roy Williams a woeful 0-5

2 things about Calipari:
1. The 11-3 record is remarkable. A breakdown:
A. 2-1 vs #1 Seeds
B. 4-1 vs #2 Seeds
C. 2-1 vs #3 Seeds
D. 3-0 vs #4 Seeds

2. Why in the heck has UK had to play so many more top 4 seeds....double what ANY other elite team has

Darryl

Pretty simple. They underachieved in 2014 and were an 8 seed...meaning they had to play 4 top seeds. Plus...UK has ruled college basketball overall since Cal has been here, and has made it to 4 Final Fours vs. Duke's 2. UK's sustained consistent success means facing stronger teams and advancing in the tourney further most seasons than other teams on a consistent basis.

 

[jgraf_1]

Most would agree that the teams seeded 1-4 are certainly better "armed" to win a title. Elite Coaches versus those teams seeded 1-4 in the NCAAT from 2010-15:

Calipari 11-3
Coach K 6-1
Izzo 5-3
Bo Ryan 4-2
Pitino 3-1
Donovan (now in the NBA) 3-2
Sean Miller 3-4
Bill Self 2-2
Thad Matta 1-3
Roy Williams a woeful 0-5

2 things about Calipari:
1. The 11-3 record is remarkable. A breakdown:
A. 2-1 vs #1 Seeds
B. 4-1 vs #2 Seeds
C. 2-1 vs #3 Seeds
D. 3-0 vs #4 Seeds

2. Why in the heck has UK had to play so many more top 4 seeds....double what ANY other elite team has

Darryl

Great info...and here are my thoughts on question 2. First instinct was UK's bracket is usually loaded, which is true, but that's not the reason IMO. Since Cal's first year besides the NIT year UK has played at least 4 tournament games which elevates the #. The others have had notoriosuly early losses in more than one years. Duke lost in the first round twice in this span and once in the sweet sixteen for instance.

 

[deplion]

The stats are consistent with my perception.

Cal is doing an amazing job (even though each of our losses in the tourney have broken my heart). K has been slightly better.

No one else is in the same category.

 

[340duster340]

If you go back only one more year, Izzo beat two 1 seeds and a 3 seed, then lost to another 1 seed in the Final, making his record 8-4 against 1-4 seeds, including in that stretch beating 3 1 seeds and a 2 seed
that I can remember, and I might be forgetting someone.

In fact, if you go by pre tournament SRS stats( how a team is expected to do in the tourney compared to what it did coming in....... Izzo is number one all time, and by a good margin. Followed by Pitino in second place, and Cal in third.
Izzo is 13-1 all time in round of 32 games, an eye opening stat

 

[Aike]

The stats are consistent with my perception.

Cal is doing an amazing job (even though each of our losses in the tourney have broken my heart). K has been slightly better.

No one else is in the same category.

K has a slightly better percentage, but using this standard, Cal has coached in twice as many big games during the period.

 

[*CatinIL*]

That data tells me that I want Huckleberry Hound to stay at UNC for a while...

 

[wcc31]

K has been slightly better.

K's definitely better! Especially when you aren't even taking into consideration his blowout loss to Arizona in the 2011 S16, his 2012 loss in the 1st round to 15-seed Lehigh, his 2013 blowout loss to Louisville and his 2014 1st round loss to 14-seed Mercer.

Meanwhile in the same time frame, the only blip on Cal's record is the NIT season when he lost his best player to an injury for the season.

Hilarious to me how K's losses get completely ignored.

 

[Mojocat]

I'm telling you guys, you are missing the trees for the forest. Cal struggles in big games - I saw it here first. Forget all that statistical nonsense, he lost against WVa in '10, UConn in '11 and '14, and Wisconsin this year. Case closed.

 

[KMKAT]

I'm telling you guys, you are missing the trees for the forest. Cal struggles in big games - I saw it here first. Forget all that statistical nonsense, he lost against WVa in '10, UConn in '11 and '14, and Wisconsin this year. Case closed.

Mojo, I gotta ask, you'd prefer to have someone else on that list instead of Cal? I wouldn't and its not even close.

I really don't see 11-3 as a struggle.........the others pale...and doing it with freshman every year makes that record stand out even more.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

Roy is 0-5 huh? I guess UNC made a smart choice giving him a contract extension.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

K's definitely better! Especially when you aren't even taking into consideration his blowout loss to Arizona in the 2011 S16, his 2012 loss in the 1st round to 15-seed Lehigh, his 2013 blowout loss to Louisville and his 2014 1st round loss to 14-seed Mercer.

Meanwhile in the same time frame, the only blip on Cal's record is the NIT season when he lost his best player to an injury for the season.

Hilarious to me how K's losses get completely ignored.

Maybe it's just me, but during this time span, I think I'd rather have 2 titles and 2 first round exits as opposed to 1 title, more final fours and 1 NIT.

 

[KMKAT]

Maybe it's just me, but during this time span, I think I'd rather have 2 titles and 2 first round exits as opposed to 1 title, more final fours and 1 NIT.

Yeah, if we got the same path Duke got every year, the results may be better...Duke over Wisky is essentially the diff between K and Cal right now. I just think Cal has done a more consistent job and K adapted to Cal's way of getting players, so that is part of this eval also.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

Yeah, if we got the same path Duke got every year, the results may be better.

To be fair, Duke's paths to the title in 2010 and 2015 had an opponent in common with UK.

 

[dlh331]

This is purely speculative but if UK had been in the South I think they finish 40-0 and Duke would have really struggled to reach the Final 4.

Rd 32 UCinn is a brutal team and would have given Duke a much better game than San Diego State did. SDSU may not have reached 40 points versus UK.

Sweet 16 A deep pressing West Virginia team wouldn't have beaten Duke but would have certainly tired them out for a game versus Notre Dame 48 hours later who we KNOW could beat Duke. UK would have throttled Utah, as weak a high seed in memory.

Elite 8 Duke vs Notre Dame and UK vs Gonzaga....lol

Final 4 Duke versus Wisconsin and UK vs MSU. The 1st game a war leaving a weakened opponent to face UK who would have beaten MSU by 20+ points.

Final UK over a "survivor" Duke or Wisconsin.

Darryl

 

[Lumpy 2]

To be fair, Duke's paths to the title in 2010 and 2015 had an opponent in common with UK.

And to be fair, Cal hasn't lost in the early rounds to teams like Lehigh and Mercer.

 

[Mojocat]

Mojo, I gotta ask, you'd prefer to have someone else on that list instead of Cal? I wouldn't and its not even close.

I really don't see 11-3 as a struggle.........the others pale...and doing it with freshman every year makes that record stand out even more.

KMKAT, I'm right there with you - I guess I wasn't obvious enough. Poking fun at the crazies who think we've somehow underachieved the last few years.....

 

[Mark Gastineau]

And to be fair, Cal hasn't lost in the early rounds to teams like Lehigh and Mercer.

No, no he hasn't. And Coach K hasn't been to the NIT since 1981.

 

[Lumpy 2]

No, no he hasn't. And Coach K hasn't been to the NIT since 1981.

But he had a team with a losing record who didn't qualify for the NIT.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

But he had a team with a losing record who didn't qualify for the NIT.

Duke was 9-3 before Coach K's back problems necessitated surgery and forced him to sit out the rest of the season. People can spin his absence that season however they want, but it will not make his back surgery and his doctor's orders not to coach that season any less real.

Hard to call a group of players somebody's team when they're not even coaching them. If Calipari started a season and then was forced to sit out a quarter of the way through because of a medical condition, you're telling me he'd still be on the hook if the team subsequently tanked under Kenny Payne?

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

Impossible. Several posters here have assured us Cal can't coach.

 

[GonzoCat90]

Duke was 9-3 before Coach K's back problems necessitated surgery and forced him to sit out the rest of the season. People can spin his absence that season however they want, but it will not make his back surgery and his doctor's orders not to coach that season any less real.

Hard to call a group of players somebody's team when they're not even coaching them. If Calipari started a season and then was forced to sit out a quarter of the way through because of a medical condition, you're telling me he'd still be on the hook if the team subsequently tanked under Kenny Payne?

But our NIT still counts even though Harrow went bonkers and Nerlens went down with an ACL injury, right? Be consistent.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

But our NIT still counts even though Harrow went bonkers and Nerlens went down with an ACL injury, right? Be consistent.

It counts against Calipari. Yes. Pinning a losing season on Coach K when he only coached 12 games is not the same thing as Kentucky having injured players.

 

[GonzoCat90]

It counts against Calipari. Yes. Pinning a losing season on Coach K when he only coached 12 games is not the same thing as Kentucky having injured players.

I'm inclined to give both a pass, given that it's unfair to judge a team that's without a major component like that. We won't rehash the back injury, as I'm sure no one's opinion on that will ever change, but I think at full strength, both respective squads are looking at a year where they squeak into the tournament and go home early.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

but I think at full strength, both respective squads are looking at a year where they squeak into the tournament and go home early.

I can't argue with that, though I think UK, fully healthy that season, makes it to at least the second weekend.

 

[Lumpy 2]

It counts against Calipari. Yes. Pinning a losing season on Coach K when he only coached 12 games is not the same thing as Kentucky having injured players.

So you're saying it's not fair to pin Duke's losing record on Coach K but our NIT season was all Cal's fault even though he lost his best player for a good portion of that season? We also lost Cauley Stein for most of the '14 tourney and we lost Poythress for most of last season. Without those injuries we would possibly have 2 more national championships and you would have 1 less.

 

[Neue Regel]

This is purely speculative but if UK had been in the South I think they finish 40-0 and Duke would have really struggled to reach the Final 4.

Rd 32 UCinn is a brutal team and would have given Duke a much better game than San Diego State did. SDSU may not have reached 40 points versus UK.

Sweet 16 A deep pressing West Virginia team wouldn't have beaten Duke but would have certainly tired them out for a game versus Notre Dame 48 hours later who we KNOW could beat Duke. UK would have throttled Utah, as weak a high seed in memory.

Elite 8 Duke vs Notre Dame and UK vs Gonzaga....lol

Final 4 Duke versus Wisconsin and UK vs MSU. The 1st game a war leaving a weakened opponent to face UK who would have beaten MSU by 20+ points.

Final UK over a "survivor" Duke or Wisconsin.

Darryl

The best part of your post is when you said "this is purely speculative." I don't feel sorry for Kentucky or Wisconsin having to play each other. Nobody felt sorry for Duke in 1986 when they had an absolutely grueling semi-final with a great Kansas team. That game came down to the wire before Duke pulled it out by 4 points while Louisville and never nervous Pervis had a nice double digit win over LSU in their semi-final game. Then in the final you had some Duke stars, particularly Mark Alarie suddenly short arming shots they had hit all year. Fatigue was a factor. Why couldn't Duke play LSU and Louisville get Kansas?? wah wah wah where's my Kleenex??

You can't control who you play so it is what it is.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

So you're saying it's not fair to pin Duke's losing record on Coach K.

Yes. How can Coach K be blamed for the performance of a team he didn't coach? That's like saying it was his fault the US didn't win gold in 2004 when Larry Brown was the coach.

but our NIT season was all Cal's fault even though he lost his best player for a good portion of that season?

Yes, injuries to PLAYERS are a regular part of basketball. It kind of blows my mind someone wants to make this argument.

 

[Lumpy 2]

Yes. How can Coach K be blamed for the performance of a team he didn't coach? That's like saying it was his fault the US didn't win gold in 2004 when Larry Brown was the coach.


Yes, injuries to PLAYERS are a regular part of basketball. It kind of blows my mind someone wants to make this argument.

And it blows my mind that someone would make the argument that the coach who recruited the players, coached them through the preseason and the easiest part of their schedule then developed back problems when the tougher part begins is not responsible for the success or failure of his team.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

And it blows my mind that someone would make the argument that the coach who recruited the players, coached them through the preseason and the easiest part of their schedule then developed back problems when the tougher part begins is not responsible for the success or failure of his team.

Players get injured all the time and teams adapt. It's part of the game. The same cannot be said for coaches. Also, if you honestly believe the coaching under Pete Gaudet was remotely close to the coaching under Coach K, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Neue Regel]

And it blows my mind that someone would make the argument that the coach who recruited the players, coached them through the preseason and the easiest part of their schedule then developed back problems when the tougher part begins is not responsible for the success or failure of his team.

He didn't develop back problems when league play started. He had his surgery before the season even started and came back early against his doctor's advice. As far as being responsible, K hardly set a precedent here since Lute Olson doesn't have the W-L record for games he missed following his wife's death in 2001. Rick Majerus didn't take the W-L record when he missed a lot of games while at UTAH for heart Surgery. It doesn't matter to me either way, in fact, I wish when K was at 996 last season that they just give him those 19 games so that the 4 wins would have made it a 1,000. Then you would have seen the hilarious carnage as people pitched a s*** fit over K getting 1,000 by claiming he was given 4 wins that he shouldn't have had when the same people demanded he take those in the first place.

 

[Lumpy 2]

He didn't develop back problems when league play started. He had his surgery before the season even started and came back early against his doctor's advice. As far as being responsible, K hardly set a precedent here since Lute Olson doesn't have the W-L record for games he missed following his wife's death in 2001. Rick Majerus didn't take the W-L record when he missed a lot of games while at UTAH for heart Surgery. It doesn't matter to me either way, in fact, I wish when K was at 996 last season that they just give him those 19 games so that the 4 wins would have made it a 1,000. Then you would have seen the hilarious carnage as people pitched a s*** fit over K getting 1,000 by claiming he was given 4 wins that he shouldn't have had when the same people demanded he take those in the first place.

According to Krzyzewski's own admission his worst back problems didn't occur during the '94/'95 season. In an article with CBS in December, 2012 he says his most debilitating pain occurred during the '98/'99 season. Krzyzewski said during the interview: "It really manifested in really bad pain in 1998, just before the start of our 1998-99 season," The doctor told him then that he needed a hip replacement but Krzyzewski thought with the start of the season nearing he wouldn't have the time. He continued coaching the rest of the season even though the pain got so bad he wasn't able to be on the floor during practice and he coached from a stool.

If the pain was worse during the '98/'99 season than it was in '94/'95 how was Krzyzewski able to coach that entire season? Duke had a much better team in '98/'99 and played for the national championship so maybe the difference between a team capable of competing for a championship and 1 with no hope of winning was a factor in his decision.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

If the pain was worse during the '98/'99 season than it was in '94/'95 how was Krzyzewski able to coach that entire season? Duke had a much better team in '98/'99 and played for the national championship so maybe the difference between a team capable of competing for a championship and 1 with no hope of winning was a factor in his decision.

So you believe Coach K sat out a season, after he had surgery and was told not to coach by his doctor, because he thought his team was bad? Seriously? Does a reasonable person go against his doctor's orders right after he has major surgery? Think about it.

 

[Lumpy 2]

So you believe Coach K sat out a season, after he had surgery and was told not to coach by his doctor, because he thought his team was bad? Seriously? Does a reasonable person go against his doctor's orders right after he has major surgery? Think about it.

All I know is what Krzyzewski himself said and he said the pain was worse in the '98/'99 season than '94/;95. The doctor also advised him to have a hip replacement before the the '98/'99 season but he decided to ignore the doctor's advice that time. If he was able to coach through worse pain in a subsequent season it doesn't make sense that he couldn't manage to coach in a season when the pain wasn't as bad.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

All I know is what Krzyzewski himself said and he said the pain was worse in the '98/'99 season than '94/;95. The doctor also advised him to have a hip replacement before the the '98/'99 season but he decided to ignore the doctor's advice that time. If he was able to coach through worse pain in a subsequent season it doesn't make sense that he couldn't manage to coach in a season when the pain wasn't as bad.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Neue Regel]

well in one scenario you're talking about a back, another a hip. So it's not exactly apples to apples. He had a back operation in 94 and hip replacement surgery immediately following the 1999 season. He's been turned into the Bionic man.

 

[*Bleedingblue*]

Everybody knows that K had a terrible team and he wanted out of that season.

 

[Mark Gastineau]

Everybody knows that K had a terrible team and he wanted out of that season.

Well ok then! Case closed.

 

[Lumpy 2]

well in one scenario you're talking about a back, another a hip. So it's not exactly apples to apples. He had a back operation in 94 and hip replacement surgery immediately following the 1999 season. He's been turned into the Bionic man.

No, we're talking about the pain levels Krzyzewski has experienced at different times during his coaching career. He had back surgery before the 1995 season and was able to coach through the preseason and the first 12 games of that season. He then took his doctor's advice and stopped coaching for the remainder of the season. Before the start of the 1999 season, when Krzyzewski says the pain was worse than when he stopped coaching in 1995, his doctor recommended hip replacement surgery but he ignored the doctor's advice and continued to coach the entire season.