Closing the Gap

[AJ Blue]

Not to beat this to death but a lot of naysayers use the "were still 13th in our own conference" line say we're not making progress. That's a classic case of just looking on the surface because if you look behind the numbers you can see the progress.

Using overall team points given by Rivals from 2007 through this year we have been no better than 13th in the conference only once in 2014. But prior to Stoops and Co. getting here the gap between our points and the 7th ranked team was 1039 points. The last three years that has closed to 505 points. And the between the 4th ranked SEC team and us was 1542 points and in the last three years that closed to just 772.

We've cut the spread in half. This means while we're still just 13th in our league, we're much closer to the other guys than we've been before and the gap between being in the top half of the league is a couple of stars here or there.

 

[Vonburns1]

thanks, that is relevant. I say you are "true blue".

 

[WildCard]

Impossible to directly compare "ranking points" from 2012 (and earlier) against 2013 (and later). The points ranking system changed dramatically in 2013 and earlier classes were not re-ranked by the new model.

Peace

 

[cathouse]

What has not changed is UL's penchant of taking known criminals into their program if they are talented enough to contribute. WildCard are you and other reasonable Card fans proud of the direction of your program? I would be embarrassed by all that CBP and Jurich allow and condone in that program. Black eye for the whole state.

 

[AJ Blue]

wildcard I know that but ithe comparison is not about the actual number of points , it's the ratio that is the point. Any way you look at it we have cut the gap in half from where we used to always be from the upper part of the conference. Therefore the overall gap in talent should also be much closer as we'll. 13th in 2007 was a lot farther away than 13th today

 

[Deeeefense]

That's interesting but recruiting rankings are not finite values they are probabilities in an attempt to predict future performance.
For example take a look at the bell curve below - that can represent what's called a normal distribution of anything.

The X axis is the player ranking and the Y axis is his future performance. If this is a curve representing a 4 star player you could say the midpoint on the x axis would be the most likely thing that would occur. For a 4 star player the red area to the right would represent the probability of him being an eventually starter in the SEC - that's approximately 30%. Further to right the gold area would mean multi-year starter and he made an all-sec team by senior year. That would be 13%. The blue area would represent being an elite player who made all SEC multiple years. That would be 6%. The white area represents being All American and/or 1st round draft pick - 1% Going the other way the red area left of center represents making the 2 deep - that's 30%, the gold area being a special teams player with occasionally spot play. That's 13%. The blue area is Letterman but seldom plays 6%. The white area is total bust - 1%.

Now you could do the same thing for a 3 star except the curve would shift slightly to the left and all the positive value would decrease by about 20% of the 4 star value. and the negative would increase by about the same. So a 3 star would have a 24% chance of becoming a starter in the SEC [30 -(30 * .20)] = 24% and so forth.

This is for illustrative purposes only and doesn't represent actually
percentages however it's probably fairly close in most cases. Actual percentages would be subject to other variables such as roaster strength. A good player on a weak roster will likely see more action than on a stronger roster etc.





This post was edited on 2/7 9:07 PM by Deeeefense

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I think you are letting yourself get too caught up with the stars. If school A needs DBs and WRs, but only signs 1 kid at each position, while they have 5 RB and 20 OL returning but end up signing 3 highly rated RB and 4 highly rated OL but school B needs OL and signs 3 2* and 2 4* to fill that need. School A didn't feel their needs, but has a higher rated class than school B who did fill their needs. Who has the best recruiting class for them? Rankings are nice, they give hope for the future and of course bragging rights, but if you don't feel the needs of your team it isn't a good class regardless of ranking. UGA needed to fill in, upgrade DB talent, we didn't really recruit a RB this class, didn't recruit a QB because of who we have committed for 16, but signed 6 DBs, the only area we didn't fill need was ILB, we are losing 2 and only signed 1 and it was our biggest need in the class. So unless we move an OLB inside or end up getting Roquan Smith the class isn't what most of us wanted.

 

[jte123]

I'm actually tired of talking about recruiting and Louisville and other SEC schools, it's time for UK to start winning games and getting a few W's in the SEC.

 

[buckkiller]

I was guilty and was really upset and frustrated about the decommitments. I settled in the other night watched the replay of ksr signing show and truly believe we snagged some steals in this class. WOW! I think it is way better than what it is ranked. I watched some film on some players as well and seen some of the offers sheets.. I think we might have the most underrated class this year. Forgive me BBN I was salty at first when I seen 13th in SEC ranking by our name when it was all said and done but after watching we got a lot better!!

 

[Rockford]

Originally posted by buckkiller:

I was guilty and was really upset and frustrated about the decommitments. I settled in the other night watched the replay of ksr signing show and truly believe we snagged some steals in this class. WOW! I think it is way better than what it is ranked. I watched some film on some players as well and seen some of the offers sheets.. I think we might have the most underrated class this year. Forgive me BBN I was salty at first when I seen 13th in SEC ranking by our name when it was all said and done but after watching we got a lot better!!

I'm glad you feel better after watching some film. However, I'm betting you didn't watch any film on other teams recruits, and if so, how can you say we are underated? You have nothing to compare to.
But, I guess it really doesn't matter, the recruits are what they are. It is all about need and how/if they are developed. Time will tell. We are closing the gap.

 

[Blue Decade]

Originally posted by Grumpyolddawg:
I think you are letting yourself get too caught up with the stars. If school A needs DBs and WRs, but only signs 1 kid at each position, while they have 5 RB and 20 OL returning but end up signing 3 highly rated RB and 4 highly rated OL but school B needs OL and signs 3 2* and 2 4* to fill that need. School A didn't feel their needs, but has a higher rated class than school B who did fill their needs. Who has the best recruiting class for them? Rankings are nice, they give hope for the future and of course bragging rights, but if you don't feel the needs of your team it isn't a good class regardless of ranking.

Stop making sense!

 

[Trenches1610]

This year is all on Stoops, can't blame Joker or his players anymore.

 

[KYBallCoach]

Closing the Gap, starts with "W's" on the field. Stoops sold recruits his first two years on his accomplishments at FSU. Now the kids want to see his turnaround with "W's" at Kentucky. Stoops can't sell FSU anymore. I agree that this recruiting class is projecting better than I thought. That said, the losing streak hurt and not closing out the UF and UofL game hurt recruiting this year.

 

[mrschwump]

Suggest a stroll through SEC signing classes before I'd declare gap closing.

 

[highlysuspicious]

original post brings up a great point.

amazing how many people in this thread have failed to comprehend what relative value means. every team in a given year is rated based on the same scale. the fact that the gap within a given year between top teams and us in rankings is getting smaller proves that we are closing the talent gap.

the performance gap is also shrinking. if you start with more talent there will be more ability to overcome mistakes. we still have to execute at a very high level, this is football after all, but we wont have as thin of a margin for error in the near future.

 

[Levibooty]

Originally posted by Grumpyolddawg:
I think you are letting yourself get too caught up with the stars. If school A needs DBs and WRs, but only signs 1 kid at each position, while they have 5 RB and 20 OL returning but end up signing 3 highly rated RB and 4 highly rated OL but school B needs OL and signs 3 2* and 2 4* to fill that need. School A didn't feel their needs, but has a higher rated class than school B who did fill their needs. Who has the best recruiting class for them? Rankings are nice, they give hope for the future and of course bragging rights, but if you don't feel the needs of your team it isn't a good class regardless of ranking. UGA needed to fill in, upgrade DB talent, we didn't really recruit a RB this class, didn't recruit a QB because of who we have committed for 16, but signed 6 DBs, the only area we didn't fill need was ILB, we are losing 2 and only signed 1 and it was our biggest need in the class. So unless we move an OLB inside or end up getting Roquan Smith the class isn't what most of us wanted.

Over and over Grumpy shows what and how a mature reasonable football fan thinks. I'll be glad when Kentucky has fans that can do the same.

You are a great poster here Grumpy. Thank you for your time and input.

 

[C1180]

IMO this is an under rated signing class and much better than most of the recruited classes UK has historically signed. I do grieve however that it could have been much better. The exodus of some very good players in the eleventh hour was a downer. I didn't however grieve the loss of Harris much because I never really believed he was serious about coming to UK. I wouldn't have given it a second thought if I didn't hate losing the best of the in state recruits to out of state schools and UofL so much.

 

[highlysuspicious]

rarely do we lose the best in state recruits to louisville. the only ones we "lose" are kids who grew up in louisville and are life long uofl fans (bush, brohm, heyman, parker etc..).

Originally posted by C1180:

IMO this is an under rated signing class and much better than most of the recruited classes UK has historically signed. I do grieve however that it could have been much better. The exodus of some very good players in the eleventh hour was a downer. I didn't however grieve the loss of Harris much because I never really believed he was serious about coming to UK. I wouldn't have given it a second thought if I didn't hate losing the best of the in state recruits to out of state schools and UofL so much.

 

[C1180]

Originally posted by highlysuspicious:
rarely do we lose the best in state recruits to louisville. the only ones we "lose" are kids who grew up in louisville and are life long uofl fans (bush, brohm, heyman, parker etc..).

Originally posted by C1180:



IMO this is an under rated signing class and much better than most of the recruited classes UK has historically signed. I do grieve however that it could have been much better. The exodus of some very good players in the eleventh hour was a downer. I didn't however grieve the loss of Harris much because I never really believed he was serious about coming to UK. I wouldn't have given it a second thought if I didn't hate losing the best of the in state recruits to out of state schools and UofL so much.

You do realize that the toughest high school football in Kentucky is played in Louisville and that we can not concede the best of the Louisville football players to UofL. The players you listed are some of the very best that Kentucky High football has produce over the past decade.

Think if how much difference just having Parker could have had on UKs record this past season. IMO UK would have won 7 games and maybe eight.
This post was edited on 2/8 6:11 PM by C1180

 

[KumarCat]

If we start winning we don't have to focus so much on recruiting. He needs to win this year. It's put up or shut time.

 

[WildCard]

Originally posted by AJ Blue:
wildcard I know that but ithe comparison is not about the actual number of points , it's the ratio that is the point. Any way you look at it we have cut the gap in half from where we used to always be from the upper part of the conference. Therefore the overall gap in talent should also be much closer as we'll. 13th in 2007 was a lot farther away than 13th today

Got it. Better recruiting (i.e., points ratio) relative to the top teams now than before. But that would be a logical escalation given classes ranked #29, #17 and #35 (2013-2015) than classes ranked no higher than #41 (2007-2012). The issue now of course is closing the gap in results on the field.

Peace

 

[AJ Blue]

Guys, people are mixing points here. I wasn't debating on the field results etc.. My point was a simple one . . . If you use the rankings as a barometer as to how we are doing, you can't just look at another 13th SEC ranking to tell the whole story. I knew we were getting a better caliber of recruit the past few years so I wanted to see how much better compared to the other guys, specifically to the upper half of the SEC. The numbers clearly show that we've made up a lot of ground. Based on purely the numbers rivals puts out it's not debatable, I gave you the numbers. It doesn't matter if the points calculation method changed or not because it changed for everyone, not just us. Any way you look at it we have closed the point difference gap significantly from us to the top half of the league over the past three years and that is a good thing.

It's really a simple point. The prior 6 years we finished 13th 10 links out of the money. The last 3 years we still have 12 horses in front of us but we are
Now just 5 links out of the money. Outside the top 4 the whole conference is bunched up a lot more in talent than before and when you get that close it just takes a couple of stars to emerge to jump some teams and have some good seasons.

That's all
This post was edited on 2/8 4:45 PM by AJ Blue

 

[RV2]

^lengths

I see what you're saying and totally agree.
This post was edited on 2/8 5:08 PM by RV2

 

[AJ Blue]

Good catch

 

[buckkiller]

Originally posted by Rockford:

Originally posted by buckkiller:

I was guilty and was really upset and frustrated about the decommitments. I settled in the other night watched the replay of ksr signing show and truly believe we snagged some steals in this class. WOW! I think it is way better than what it is ranked. I watched some film on some players as well and seen some of the offers sheets.. I think we might have the most underrated class this year. Forgive me BBN I was salty at first when I seen 13th in SEC ranking by our name when it was all said and done but after watching we got a lot better!!

I'm glad you feel better after watching some film. However, I'm betting you didn't watch any film on other teams recruits, and if so, how can you say we are underated? You have nothing to compare to.
But, I guess it really doesn't matter, the recruits are what they are. It is all about need and how/if they are developed. Time will tell. We are closing the gap.

Handful of the recruits look more like some 4 stars and some steals. Look at some of the teams that came calling late on few of them players. Yes I think the class is underrated cause I have watched football 40 years and I know what good talent looks like. I was bummed at first but I did my own research . We are closing the gap!

 

[Comebakatz3]

I've always hated the "we're still 13th in the SEC!" argument. Of course we are, we have a long way to go. To get out of 13th or 14th we have to make huge strides. It likely won't happen in one year. What these people fail to understand is that you can be 13th in the SEC and be ranked 30th in recruiting overall, or you can be 13th in the SEC and be ranked 45th overall. This year we are closer to 30 at 34. So, our class might not be better than 13th place, but it is getting closer to being better. That makes a huge difference because we're that much closer to being competitive. It is also even better when you add in some years when you're 9th in the conference, like last year. I look at how close in talent out classes are to other SEC schools. If we're in the 40s and 50s we're probably doing badly. If we're up in the mid 30s we're okay. If we're below that then we're going to be right in the mix. Maybe not top half, but in order to get top half regularly we need to win regularly. I definitely think the talent gap is getting smaller. We just have to continue to close it so that we might be even more competitive in future years.

 

[mrschwump]

UK's Catch-22....have to win to get good players, have to get good players to win.

 

[STEVE!]

Stating that we are 13th but not as far away from 12th as we have been in the past is about as good news as saying the federal budget deficit this year is only $500 billion instead of $1.5 trillion. We are still falling further behind the rest of the SEC. I agree with the other posters that said "just win some games". That is the true measure of the recruiting success.

 

[CATFANFOLIFE87]

Fans get so caught up in who flipped without knowing how many of our players bigger programs failed to flip. King was offered by Harbaugh and Florida after committing to us but we kept him. South Carolina and Michigan St went after Greenwood. One of the most misrepresented parts of recruiting profiles are player offers and interest. There were a lot of heavyweight battles our staff won that go unreported. If fans had that knowledge they'd feel different about individual players and the class as a whole

 

[RV2]

Originally posted by STEVE!:
Stating that we are 13th but not as far away from 12th as we have been in the past is about as good news as saying the federal budget deficit this year is only $500 billion instead of $1.5 trillion. We are still falling further behind the rest of the SEC. I agree with the other posters that said "just win some games". That is the true measure of the recruiting success.

Did you even read the OP basically laying out in black and white that we ARE closing the gap and yet you say we're falling further behind. Based on what? The fact we won fewer ooc games in '14? No - wait - we won more ooc games.

OK - the fact we won fewer SEC games? No - that's not right either. We won more SEC games.

Unbelievable! SMH

 

[TriangleUKCat]

Good post, Grumpy. Well before the 2014 Signing Day, I vividly remember guys that cover UK Football for a living stating that 2015 wouldn't be a "cool" or "sexy" class in comparison to 2014 (which was a very very good class by UK standards but maybe a shrug-off by traditional powers). This class seems to have accomplished quite a bit of that. Some misses but still a good class.

 

[buckkiller]

I still think the class is underrated. King is 2nd team all American considered 1 of the top 5 backs in country now even though he is ranked 79th. Provitt is an no way shape or form a 3 star. He has easily 4 star talent. I am not buying 13th in SEC after watching the film on all the players in the class. That's just 2 of the players that are underrated. Both 4* talent with the eye test easily. Allen is no way a 2* and all the big boys coming after him late.

 

[STEVE!]

Originally posted by RV2:

Originally posted by STEVE!:
Stating that we are 13th but not as far away from 12th as we have been in the past is about as good news as saying the federal budget deficit this year is only $500 billion instead of $1.5 trillion. We are still falling further behind the rest of the SEC. I agree with the other posters that said "just win some games". That is the true measure of the recruiting success.

Did you even read the OP basically laying out in black and white that we ARE closing the gap and yet you say we're falling further behind. Based on what? The fact we won fewer ooc games in '14? No - wait - we won more ooc games.

OK - the fact we won fewer SEC games? No - that's not right either. We won more SEC games.

Unbelievable! SMH

13th is still 13th, RV2, whether we lost by 1 point or 1000 points. If you're running a race and are in 13th place, and the 12 runners ahead of you are running faster than you, aren't you falling further behind instead of closing the gap? We finished 13th in the SEC last season, and the 12 teams ahead of us - all of whom went to bowls - had better recruiting classes than us. There were 24 Freshmen and Sophomores on this year's all-SEC Team, and our only representative was our Place Kicker. Ramsey Meyers was our only representative on the all-SEC Freshman teams, and our last two classes were supposed to be better than this one. The only way we can argue that our recruiting is SEC caliber is to win some games against teams other than UT Martin, Ohio, ULM, and historically bad USC and Vandy squads. I hope Stoops can coach his guys up to do that this year.

 

[C1180]

Not a great recruited class but much better than many on this board are thinking. Those that were thinking that UK would be in the top half in the SEC in signing classes were clueless. They would have needed a top 15 class to be in the top half. UK has signed a lot of good solid football players that will contribute to the UK football program and make it better.

 

[Poetax]

Originally posted by Rockford:

Originally posted by buckkiller:

I was guilty and was really upset and frustrated about the decommitments. I settled in the other night watched the replay of ksr signing show and truly believe we snagged some steals in this class. WOW! I think it is way better than what it is ranked. I watched some film on some players as well and seen some of the offers sheets.. I think we might have the most underrated class this year. Forgive me BBN I was salty at first when I seen 13th in SEC ranking by our name when it was all said and done but after watching we got a lot better!!

I'm glad you feel better after watching some film. However, I'm betting you didn't watch any film on other teams recruits, and if so, how can you say we are underated? You have nothing to compare to.
But, I guess it really doesn't matter, the recruits are what they are. It is all about need and how/if they are developed. Time will tell. We are closing the gap.
Brooks proved a couple of things while going through a rough early 3 year period. One if you don't change HCs and staffs every other year, and keep the same offense and defense, it helps consistancy. If you gather some fair to good recruiting classes and end up in four years having seniors and juniors dominate your starting lineups you begin to win. Lastly get a couple of playmakers and you go and actually win some bowl games. Stoops is doing all of this, plus his recruiting is on steroids compared to back then so he is closing the gap.

 

[BigBluePhantom]

Originally posted by STEVE!:

13th is still 13th, RV2, whether we lost by 1 point or 1000 points. If you're running a race and are in 13th place, and the 12 runners ahead of you are running faster than you, aren't you falling further behind instead of closing the gap?

Absolutely Not! The starting point resets every year or in your poor analogy every race. Look at it this way, if runner X lost his first race by 20 yards and then the next race by 15 yards and then the next race by only 10 yards, what can we conclude? That runner X is improving more and the runners ahead of him and that if the trend continues, he will soon start passing the runners just ahead of him and that he is indeed closing that gap race by race. UK's recruiting classes have been much closer to the other SEC schools than they were prior to Stoops. Common sense dictates that this should result in in UK having a more competitive team compared to the teams that have not improved their recruiting and should translate into more wins than we previously have been getting. More wins should result in even better recruiting which should in turn create even more wins.

No guarantees that it will play out exactly like this but that has to be the plan and so far it is moving along right on schedule.

 

[fabcat]

Originally posted by Grumpyolddawg:
I think you are letting yourself get too caught up with the stars. If school A needs DBs and WRs, but only signs 1 kid at each position, while they have 5 RB and 20 OL returning but end up signing 3 highly rated RB and 4 highly rated OL but school B needs OL and signs 3 2* and 2 4* to fill that need. School A didn't feel their needs, but has a higher rated class than school B who did fill their needs. Who has the best recruiting class for them? Rankings are nice, they give hope for the future and of course bragging rights, but if you don't feel the needs of your team it isn't a good class regardless of ranking. UGA needed to fill in, upgrade DB talent, we didn't really recruit a RB this class, didn't recruit a QB because of who we have committed for 16, but signed 6 DBs, the only area we didn't fill need was ILB, we are losing 2 and only signed 1 and it was our biggest need in the class. So unless we move an OLB inside or end up getting Roquan Smith the class isn't what most of us wanted.

Good post. Filling needs are far more important. It's the only way you can build depth across the board. And that is something UK has lacked for years.

 

[Ky grandpa]

I think this proves that the nation of short attention span of our people and nation in general is decaying. Think back just a few years ago and see the joy on here on NSD and we were over the top with just a lowly high 2 star. I would jump for joy when Joker would sign a 5.2 or 5.3 star.
Now look at us we are making light of what seems to be an under rated class. just go look at the eye test as some have said, and then go look at other teams kids, there is not any or( to my eyes) very much difference.
I love this class, think there are many starters here in a couple or so years. I am going to watch more of these kids and also check out some of the top rated ones as well.
Go BB

 

[BlueChuck]

Originally posted by BigBluePhantom:

Originally posted by STEVE!:

13th is still 13th, RV2, whether we lost by 1 point or 1000 points. If you're running a race and are in 13th place, and the 12 runners ahead of you are running faster than you, aren't you falling further behind instead of closing the gap?

Absolutely Not! The starting point resets every year or in your poor analogy every race. Look at it this way, if runner X lost his first race by 20 yards and then the next race by 15 yards and then the next race by only 10 yards, what can we conclude? That runner X is improving more and the runners ahead of him and that if the trend continues, he will soon start passing the runners just ahead of him and that he is indeed closing that gap race by race. UK's recruiting classes have been much closer to the other SEC schools than they were prior to Stoops. Common sense dictates that this should result in in UK having a more competitive team compared to the teams that have not improved their recruiting and should translate into more wins than we previously have been getting. More wins should result in even better recruiting which should in turn create even more wins.

No guarantees that it will play out exactly like this but that has to be the plan and so far it is moving along right on schedule.

Great post Phantom, but quit trying to convince someone that simply wants to argue and complain. Anybody that can not see that we are indeed making progress, just as the original poster stated, either does not know a thing about football, or just simply wants to whine and complain. Stoops will get it done here. There is no doubt in my mind.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Originally posted by STEVE!:

Originally posted by RV2:

Originally posted by STEVE!:
Stating that we are 13th but not as far away from 12th as we have been in the past is about as good news as saying the federal budget deficit this year is only $500 billion instead of $1.5 trillion. We are still falling further behind the rest of the SEC. I agree with the other posters that said "just win some games". That is the true measure of the recruiting success.

Did you even read the OP basically laying out in black and white that we ARE closing the gap and yet you say we're falling further behind. Based on what? The fact we won fewer ooc games in '14? No - wait - we won more ooc games.

OK - the fact we won fewer SEC games? No - that's not right either. We won more SEC games.

Unbelievable! SMH

13th is still 13th, RV2, whether we lost by 1 point or 1000 points. If you're running a race....

If you are running a race, it definitely matters whether you finish 1 second or an hour behind if you have to race the same people again...being 1 second behind is a lot less to make up than being an hour behind. The gap closer matters...and if you cant see the gap closing from 2-10 (0-8) x 2 to 5-7 (2-6) then you just don't want to see it.