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CJ's Sullivan picks UofL
- Thread starter Blueathletics
- Start date
I copied and pasted for those not wanting to give them hits...
Picking against Kentucky at Rupp Arena is like betting on the salmon against the grizzly bear.
It defies conventional wisdom and statistical analysis and typically provokes those citizens of Big Blue Nation who regard contrary opinion as proof of preexisting bias and/or mental instability.
Nevertheless, five days before Bluegrass Basketball Armageddon, I am leaning toward Louisville.
Yes, the numbers are daunting. Kentucky is 61-1 against non-conference opponents at Rupp with John Calipari as its coach. Yes, Louisville is diminished by the loss of backup center Mangok Mathiang, sidelined by foot surgery, and by a so-far-snooze-worthy schedule. Yes, UK continues to attract the higher-end talent, including three freshmen projected as first-round draft choices by Hoopshype.com.
No, I am not operating under the influence of egg nog, click-trolling or the purportedly omnipotent Tom Jurich. At this point, in this season, the Cardinals are more experienced, more evolved, more physical and much less dependent on the progress of a post player who has lately been missing in action.
Replace Skal Labissiere with Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Nerlens Noel or Anthony Davis and Calipari might expect to continue his dominance of Rick Pitino. But a week after Labissiere’s zero-point, zero-rebound, five-foul effort at home against Arizona State, the Wildcats’ much-hyped Haitian center still looked lost and frail in a two-point performance in Saturday’s neutral-site loss to Ohio State.
Barring a sudden breakthrough, if Labissiere’s college career is one-and-done, it will be because of money, not merit.
Should Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku be able to exploit Labissiere’s learning curve, and absorb some of Mathiang’s minutes without reverting to his foul-prone past, the Cardinals should have enough of a rebounding edge to offset Kentucky’s superior quickness on the perimeter.
Disclaimer: If UK’s Jamal Murray continues to channel his inner Steph Curry, all bets are off.
Reminder: Louisville ranks 14th nationally in 3-point field goal defense (27.3 percent).
THE COURIER-JOURNAL
U of L, UK ranked ahead of rivalry game
Though Louisville’s Damion Lee and Trey Lewis cannot match UK’s backcourt athleticism, the graduate transfer guards are unlikely to panic in the face of full-court pressure. (Quentin Snider, Louisville’s third guard, has 47 assists against just 12 turnovers.)
Granted, pre-game perceptions are often rendered irrelevant once the game tips off. Guys get hot. Guys get hurt. Some referees allow different amounts of contact. Some coaches adjust more adroitly.
Yet the notion that these variables are somehow less meaningful than the constant of home-court advantage may be founded on a flawed premise. Though Kentucky’s record at Rupp Arena tends to inspire awe, its home record is more easily attributable to the excellence of its players than the intimidation of its environment.
Yes, UK has led the nation in average home attendance 17 times in the past 20 seasons. Yes, a packed arena seating 23,000 spectators is not a normal venue for opposing players. Yes, eight NCAA championship banners remind visitors that they can expect to leave as victims.
No, it’s not Alcatraz.
Despite its size and attendance records, Rupp Arena is not nearly as loud as are many smaller arenas (Examples: Duke’s Cameron Indoor Stadium, UConn’s Gampel Pavilion, Michigan State’s Breslin Center). And except for the guy who won’t stop heckling the officials when the Wildcats are winning by 30 points, the fans are generally more polite than you find at, say, Memphis.
With the students consigned to one end of the floor and the premium sections generally occupied by middle-aged money, the building’s seating configuration eliminates the feeling that hostile fans are hovering over the visiting players. It’s a hard place to play because of who you are playing, not where you are playing.
"You hear the expression all the time about students being right on top of you," then- Mississippi State coach Rick Ray told ESPN in 2013. "But at places like Duke, they're literally right on top of you. When a guy is taking the ball out of bounds, those fans could literally reach out and touch him if they wanted to. That can get into your head."
Kentucky typically gets into opponents’ heads with its talent. And it may be able to do so again by March. But there’s a reason Calipari says, “people smell blood,” at the moment, and there’s reason to believe the Cats are vulnerable right now, even at Rupp.
Louisville 74, Kentucky 68.
Until UofL beats a team with some type of pedigree I would not put money on them. They have played the worst OCC schedule in the history of mens basketball. They played a good half against MSU which also played a bad half. Not saying UK cannot lose just UofL has to prove to me they even belong in the top 25.
I can definitely argue with what he said about Rupp Arena. Has he ever been there for a big/close game? The place really gets rocking for these and will be on Saturday.
It's funny a month ago we were paying attention to the UL scandal not worrying about our team's performance. I feel like I have had blinders on to be honest. This game could go either way. I think we could easily lose by 10 at home. What worries me is the youth and these guys come out timid AGAIN and try to play catch up with nerves.
Play like we did against Duke and we spank their asses like the dirty birds they are.
They don't, or they even imply anything bad about the Tards, the "omnipotent" Jurich will put them in time out. I'm surprised some of them have had the nads to talk about "Hoe-gate."
Reminder: Louisville ranks 14th nationally in 3-point field goal defense (27.3 percent).
But they gave up 39.1 percent against Michigan State.
Question: How many high-major teams has UL beaten?
Answer: 0
But they gave up 39.1 percent against Michigan State.
Question: How many high-major teams has UL beaten?
Answer: 0
I think Poythress and Briscoe contain Lee thus cutting off their head. Snider won't stop Tyler getting where he wants to go and Murray is solid plus. Just rebound and all is good.
Exactly, why would anyone NOT play zone against us?
He did say we might win if we had Anthony Davis. So at least he's a logical guy.
And he couldn't be more right about Rupp. It's quiet as a mouse when UL comes to town. The fans couldn't care less about beating Louisville and Rick Pitino.
And he couldn't be more right about Rupp. It's quiet as a mouse when UL comes to town. The fans couldn't care less about beating Louisville and Rick Pitino.
Frankly, even though it's tough to derive anything from UL thus far considering they are playing high school teams, they have appeared to be the better team as a whole. Now we show flashes of being very good (much better than them IMO), but generally speaking we are playing below expectations and they are playing above expectations which levels the playing field.
If I'm UL I feel like we HAVE to win this game. They only have two good OOC opponents on the schedule and they already lost to the first, so they need this win to prove they are more than just a bully picking on 200+ RPI teams. Not to mention their embarrassing record against us in recent years. This is by far their best chance to get the win since their championship team squeaked by our NIT team at the Chicken Bucket. If they lose this one, it will be a real kick in the nuts to all UL fans. Hopefully our guys find themselves this week and can deliver that blow.
If I'm UL I feel like we HAVE to win this game. They only have two good OOC opponents on the schedule and they already lost to the first, so they need this win to prove they are more than just a bully picking on 200+ RPI teams. Not to mention their embarrassing record against us in recent years. This is by far their best chance to get the win since their championship team squeaked by our NIT team at the Chicken Bucket. If they lose this one, it will be a real kick in the nuts to all UL fans. Hopefully our guys find themselves this week and can deliver that blow.
Meh... UL is our rival and some of their fans (and Pitino) get under my skin. But, that doesn't mean I can't respect the team play of UL. Players didn't schedule all their "cupcake" games. They can only play against who is on the schedule, and have thumped everybody as they were expected to do (except a respectable effort against MSU in a true road game).
Sullivan presented valid arguments that this will once again be a close rivalry game-- as it is each year. But, I still like UK by 4-7 points at home.
Now, if it were to be played at YUM this year... let's just say we haven't played well away from home since the Duke game.
Sullivan presented valid arguments that this will once again be a close rivalry game-- as it is each year. But, I still like UK by 4-7 points at home.
Now, if it were to be played at YUM this year... let's just say we haven't played well away from home since the Duke game.
I listened to the first half of the Mich St & lou. game with the Mich. St call while driving home from work. The announcers, while homers, mentioned several times how lethargic MSU looked and talked about the jet lag from the west coast trip. The cards may have caught them at the best possible time. I think Ky wins, Cal will have them ready.
Game will be close. Still picking the Cats but not arguing against anybody who thinks otherwise. It's a pickem game at this point. However, Sullivan has never been to Rupp during a big game, I guarantee you that. You can hear Cal coach against the EKU's and the Furman's of the world but when the big games come to town so does the crowd. Rupp can get electrifying in a heartbeat.
Really it's not. People always say this but can't back it up with stats. Now is it a dog fight/tough bruising game? Yes, it almost always is.
Since Pitino's arrival at UK in the 89-90 season, UK leads the series 19-9. Only 7 of those 28 games have been decided by less than 7 points.
In UK's 19 wins the average score is 74.6-63.3 which is an 11.3 point win on average.
In UL's 9 wins the average score is 80.5-72.9 which is a 7.6 point win on average.
They are going to hack zone or not ! Can we hit free throws is the question! Wish we had more practice time but glad the kids got to go home for their holiday visits!
The game is likely to be close, the fact that we have a week off doesn't do us any favors.UL hasn't played a game(other than MSU) closer than 20 points, so how they react to a tight game is in question.
Even though the expectations are for a close game I think we may be able to call a winner after the first 10 or 12 minutes. How the game is being called and if we have dug ourselves a hole at that point will tell us much.
This one is much more about what we do than it is about what they do. I think this is a good match-up for Skal, he should have the chance to do some things that he hasn't been able to do in the past couple of games. Once again this game may not be seen as one that fits Humphries skill set. Lee and Alex could have good games in this one
Even though the expectations are for a close game I think we may be able to call a winner after the first 10 or 12 minutes. How the game is being called and if we have dug ourselves a hole at that point will tell us much.
This one is much more about what we do than it is about what they do. I think this is a good match-up for Skal, he should have the chance to do some things that he hasn't been able to do in the past couple of games. Once again this game may not be seen as one that fits Humphries skill set. Lee and Alex could have good games in this one
Final scores aren't always indicative of a close game. A 10 point margin can be a close game. An 8 point margin can be a game that was never competitive. The games in recent years have been competitive.
Just because only a handful of the games has been decided by less than 7 doesn't mean the majority of these games weren't close. I don't know exactly sure why you choose 7. I guess it's because that certain number supports your argument. I would say less than 10 normally shows a competitive game
In Cal's time
09-10 9 point UK win
10-11 15 Point UK win
11-12 7 point UK win
12-13 3 point UL win
13-14 7 point UK win
14-15 8 point UK win
Even the 2 tourney games were close. 2012 tied the game late in the 2nd half but UK won by 8. UK won by 5 in 2014 after trailing 6 late. So Cal has only had one dominate win even though I would argue the 2012 Final Four game was a dominate effort and they really stepped on UL's throat after Siva tied the game. These games almost have all been anyone's game going into the final timeout and at least the under 8 timeout.
Agreed with the above.
I mean lets go game by game.
09-10 = 9 point Win but the score was 43-42 with 10 min remaining
10-11 = 15 Point Win - This one was wasn't close. We had a double digit lead the majority of the second half
11-12 = 7 Point Win - Was a two possession game with 10 min remaining but we never really pulled away until the very end
12-13 = 3 Point UL Win = UK goes on a late 2nd half run and game was close within the last 10 mins
13-14 = 7 Point UK Win = This game was 55-53 with 9 mins left again hovering between 2 to 3 possession lead
14-15 = 8 point UK Win = game was a 5 point game with 8 mins remaining
Only one I would say not close was 10-11 TBH
I mean lets go game by game.
09-10 = 9 point Win but the score was 43-42 with 10 min remaining
10-11 = 15 Point Win - This one was wasn't close. We had a double digit lead the majority of the second half
11-12 = 7 Point Win - Was a two possession game with 10 min remaining but we never really pulled away until the very end
12-13 = 3 Point UL Win = UK goes on a late 2nd half run and game was close within the last 10 mins
13-14 = 7 Point UK Win = This game was 55-53 with 9 mins left again hovering between 2 to 3 possession lead
14-15 = 8 point UK Win = game was a 5 point game with 8 mins remaining
Only one I would say not close was 10-11 TBH
Gonna be a close game. If we are not more physical, and do not come ready to play; we will have our butts handed to us on a platter. This is a big game for both teams; UL needs a win over a good team; UK needs to prove that it can play and win a tough, physical game. Buckle up boys!!
Amen, just not sure our guys have it in them. Winston Bennett, Chuck Hayes or Jamal Magilore ain't walking thru the door.
UL will come into this game confident, as usual. Then, as usual, our talent will take over and then they'll realize they haven't seen a team like ours. You can always see it in their faces every year and it's so funny. They'll break down, as usual. We'll win, again, as usual.
This game doesn't concern me in the least.
This game doesn't concern me in the least.
I guess some of you considered our game against Ohio State Saturday a "close" one.
I consider a close game one that is in-doubt with a minute to play. Last year wasn't close. Louisville couldn't score. That 8-point win was equivalent to a 17-point win in that rock fight.
People act like every game between UK-Louisville is a barn-burner. It's not true. In fact, it rarely is up for grabs late.
I consider a close game one that is in-doubt with a minute to play. Last year wasn't close. Louisville couldn't score. That 8-point win was equivalent to a 17-point win in that rock fight.
People act like every game between UK-Louisville is a barn-burner. It's not true. In fact, it rarely is up for grabs late.
We need to come out with solid energy, from the opening tip. If we come out with another lackluster start we very well could find ourselves in a hole, and with the way were shooting free throws that would be very bad. I'm still hoping for a Skal breakout and him dropping 20+.
Which is exactly why I said it is always a dog fight.
My point exactly. And why I chose 7 points (aka 3 possessions)
If it isn't in doubt in the final minutes then it could've been a dog fight, but not really 'close'.....I guess it just depends on how you look at it.
Glad this game is at home. UL is much better than Ohio State and the article has minimal holes to poke at. However, maybe Humphries and Tai bring something to the table if Skal isn't producing. Plus, records seem secondary when there are rivalry games. We have seen opponents play out of their minds on their home court, so maybe it can happen for Kentucky and then everyone will over-react to the positive. I think Kentucky wins at home and we should be glad it is a home game.
