CI Roundtable: Selection Sunday
March Madness is in full swing. (Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)
Jeff Drummond • CatsIllustrated
Managing Editor Edit
@JDrumUK
In this edition of the Cats Illustrated Roundtable, our staff breaks down the NCAA Tournament brackets in the wake of Selection Sunday, one of the most exciting days each year across Big Blue Nation.
What are your thoughts on the overall brackets and Kentucky's seed and regional placement?
TRAVIS GRAF:
I think that the committee really did a good job of balancing out all of the regions this year. The West region is probably the most difficult, but it’s not overbearing. Kentucky ended up as a 2 seed and the number six overall team in the field, which seems right on with what they deserved. They’ll play their first two games in Indianapolis, so ‘Cats fans will really like that. They’re projected to matchup with in-state opponent Murray State in the second round as well. Kentucky can beat any team that lies ahead of them, but there’s definitely a few teams in the region — Murray State, Purdue, UCLA, Texas, and Baylor — that could beat the ‘Cats if Kentucky is off of their game.
JUSTIN ROWLAND:
I think it was an okay draw for Kentucky. Nobody's path is easy. I'm not saying every region is the same in terms of difficulty but you really don't know what the path is ultimately going to look like so there's a lot of projection going on as we assess the regions. Overall it was a fair draw. Kentucky stayed on the 2-seed line and does not have one team in the top-20 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings in the bottom half of the East. That was something I was going to be looking for since I noted UK is 24-2 against teams outside of that ranking area and 2-5 against top-20 defenses. That's a good thing. Murray State could make for an interesting game and it would get a lot of attention but you if you lose to a seven you can't really complain too much. Purdue is a dangerous team because of its elite offense, size, and record against really good teams. That's a dangerous Sweet 16 game but Matt Painter is 1-4 in that round and Calipari is 7-1 at UK for whatever it's worth. Baylor is a one seed that you're okay seeing. I don't think the committee took it too easy on Coach K with this being his going out tour. I'm wondering who comes out of the Midwest. There's no team there I'm really in love with at the moment there.
DAVID SISK:
When the bracket is revealed one of the first things we all look for is which region is stacked. The more I look at it the more I think it is spread out pretty evenly. This also means there are several teams that have realistic shots to a Final Four and even perhaps a national championship. The West region kind of sticks out because one would have to go through Gonzaga in their backyard. I still don't know that Duke and Texas Tech are the greatest two and three seeds. Arizona could also have a tough road if they end up playing Illinois in the Sweet 16 and the winner of Tennessee and Villanova in the next round. Kentucky has to love where they are sitting. Their first two rounds are in Indianapolis which will be a home game. Their road there includes Saint Peter's and the winner of Murray State and San Francisco. From there chalk would say Purdue in the round of 16, and then maybe Baylor or UCLA out of the other side. In my opinion, Baylor has the hardest path for the top seed, and that bodes well for Kentucky.
JEFF DRUMMOND:
I think the committee did a pretty good job this year outside of a few grievances (like the snubbing of Texas A&M and Tennessee as a 3 seed in comparison to Duke's much flimsier resume as a 2.) But, by and large, it seems like there's less nitpicking about these brackets than we usually hear. I don't think anyone received an "easy path" this time around. There's not a region that jumps out at me as Murderer's Row. It was telling that Kentucky head coach John Calipari had no gripes at all with his seed or regional placement this year. His team gets to start its journey in Indianapolis, which will give the Cats a huge fan following for the first two games, and they won't see anyone in Philadelphia like Villanova or Duke who would have a big advantage in the stands.
Who do you view as the biggest threat to Kentucky in the East Region?
JEFF DRUMMOND:
I think it's only fair to start with the defending national champions, Baylor. The Bears have had some ups and downs this season, but when that team is going well, it's as good as anyone in this tournament. They have the profile that fits championship teams for the last decade or so: ninth in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. And, somewhat like Kentucky, they have a roster where you can't really focus all of your gameplan on just taking one guy out. Tremendous balance. The best news for Kentucky here, if it comes down to a potential 1 versus 2 matchup for the regional championship, is that Baylor lost early in the Big 12 Tournament and got shipped East to Philadelphia. This could have been an even trickier matchup for opponents had the Bears earned the No. 1 seed in the South, which will be decided in San Antonio.
JUSTIN ROWLAND:
I'd still have to go with Baylor. You're talking about the defending champs who expect to win every game they play. They've got wins against Kansas, Texas, Villanova, and several tournament teams. KenPom gives them the No. 9 offense and No. 14 defense so it's a balanced squad that is 11-4 away from Waco this season. Avoiding Gonzaga and Arizona was important. I don't want to give the impression that UK would cruise in this game but I think the Cats could be favored on a neutral site as the two.
DAVID SISK:
In my opinion there are two significant threats: Purdue and UCLA. It sounds odd not to include the top seed, but Baylor is without L.J. Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Cryer was the Bears' leading scorer at 13.5 points per game before he went down with an injury in February. Tchamwa Tchatchoua added post depth while averaging 8.4 and 6.8 rebounds. He was lost with an injury last month as well. The Boilermakers were as highly thought of as any team in the country at one time, but they are just 3-3 in their final 16 games. However, they do feature maybe the best perimeter player in the country in Jayden Ivey, and they have the size and depth with Caleb Swanigan and the 7-3 Zach Edey to contest Oscar Tshiebwe. UCLA is hot. They had won eight of nine before falling to Arizona in the Pac12 Championship game. The Bruins have the successful experience. They got to the national semifinals last season before bowing out to Gonzaga in an all-time epic contest.
TRAVIS GRAF:
Purdue. The Boilermakers possess a couple of components that Kentucky has struggled with so far this season. They have multiple 7-footers who are skilled and will make life tough for Kentucky in the paint. Oscar Tshiebwe has struggled with extreme length at times and Purdue has a bunch of it. Kentucky also struggles to contain opposing guards that can score from multiple levels, and there might not be a better player than Jaden Ivey in the entire country at the guard position.
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