Breakdown: Whoo boy, the Wildcats are going to be fun but certainly a project. Yes, they're obviously a title contender. The No. 2 recruiting class in the country includes the deepest deployment of talented wing players on any team. Jarred Vanderbilt is in the process of returning from an injury, but UK is built to withstand an injury or two. Quade Green is one of the lesser-heralded point guards John Calipari has had (and that's all relative; if Green were starting this season at, say, Arizona State? The Sun Devils would get Top 25 consideration). Wenyen Gabriel is back, and it would be surprising if he didn't become an increasingly problematic player to scheme against. Kevin Knox and Hamidou Diallo will probably lead the Cats in scoring. Calipari would absolutely love to win a national championship with a roster that's more inexperienced than any he has ever had. That, and going undefeated, are the only things Cal has left to prove (and he doesn't need to prove anything, really).
Stat to know: If you're wondering what the expectation for a team like this should be, Calipari has averaged 31 wins at Kentucky. Anywhere in the 26-29 range is most likely.
Dark horses
-- Dark horses are labeled as such because they're not being put in the national championship conversation even though they've all got the coaching and veteran presence to win six straight in March
Breakdown: Key to note that the dark-horse category, for our purposes here, is for a few teams that haven't been, and mostly won't be, discussed in the preseason as national championship-caliber despite being nearly universally regarded as top-20 squads this season. Florida, which we have ranked all the way up at No. 9, qualifies. Which is a bit odd, given that the Gators were crazy close to going to the Final Four last season. Chris Chiozza, responsible for one of the most famous shots in Gator history, is back -- alongside his super-talented teammate KeVaughn Allen. Florida is going to have the defense necessary to give it a tremendous shot at making the Final Four. Once big man John Egbunu comes back from injury a few weeks into the season Florida can click into a stalwart of defense. What's interesting about this team is how good it is even after losing Devin Robinson to the NBA Draft. Mike White has adapted with a quickness to keeping UF as a top-25 national program.
Breakdown: Cincinnati won't have five players on our annual Top 100 (and one) Players list, but by year's end it might well have a case for it.
Breakdown: I had the Gaels on last season's list. Now, as the West Coast Conference favorites and with most of the roster back, it's only fair to put Randy Bennett's team here again.
Breakdown: Obviously Arizona is a top-three team right now. But there are programs tied to the FBI investigation of bribery in college basketball. That means those programs are also going to be caught in the NCAA's crosshairs eventually as well. At full strength, Arizona has a case to be the No. 1 team in the country. Allonzo Trier, Rawle Alkins and DeAndre Ayton are, to me, three of the 25 best players in college basketball. They have plenty of talent around them as well.
Breakdown: The Trojans of Southern Cal. Like Arizona, they have an assistant who was arrested by the FBI. Like Arizona, there are questions about the roster from an eligibility standpoint. Absent any federal government intrusion, Andy Enfield's team would be listed as a "title contender" no question.
Breakdown: We're on team No. 3 connected to the FBI probe. Now, Miami is listed here in part because of that (though coach Jim Larranaga is steadfast in publicly stating that his program will be exonerated; he has used stronger language than other coaches) but also because the Hurricanes are wild-cardy. If all are eligible to play, the Hurricanes' national title hopes will be driven by Bruce Brown.
Breakdown: Our fourth FBI-affected program is the most wild card-applicable of all. The Cardinals lose their Hall of Fame coach and have lost freshman Brian Bowen (at least until further notice). David Padgett, the interim coach, is unproven. But Deng Adel, Quentin Snider, Ray Spalding, V.J. King (underrated!) and Anas Mahmoud are all back. That's a really solid quintet. Almost no one is giving Louisville a shot to rally and vie for a national title, yet U of L was a borderline top-10 team before this FBI stuff. There is a chance this group surprises many, goes out and gets a No. 3 seed and then has the talent and matchups to make a deep run. A wild-card pick by definition, but worthy of inclusion nonetheless.
Breakdown: Took us a while to get to the reigning national champs. Joel Berry II broke his hand in a fit of frustration after playing "NBA 2K18," but if he's back to full health by the start of December then UNC should be OK. Berry is a top-two point guard and it's because of his return that UNC is even ranked. We don't know what to expect from sophomores Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson. Luke Maye suddenly has a lot more on his broad shoulders. Will Theo Pinson thrive -- and dodge injury -- with more on-court responsibility than he has ever had? Carolina has some good pieces but everything is going to have to hit like a tuning fork in order for the Tar Heels to repeat.
Breakdown: The two-man attack of Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell makes Notre Dame an intriguing "long shot" to win it all. I think the Fighting Irish are a great preseason value pick.
Breakdown: Generally speaking, unless you're Kansas, Kentucky, Duke or UNC, it's hard to lose a Player of the Year candidate and return as a national championship contender. (Villanova, however, is making it look natural.) Yet here we have Purdue rounding out the list despite not having Caleb Swanigan, who was world-beatingly superb last season.
