Cats at Gators (Game 3)
- Thread starter Comebakatz3
- Start date
Well I complain about the top and they help to get us our first lead of the weekend as Estep gets a rare hit and ends up scoring on a Harris sac fly.
Tie game as Florida gets a single, a wild pitch and a single.
UK mistake puts the runner at 2nd. Ball thrown home instead of limiting the runner to a single. It's the little mistakes like that which define this team.
UK mistake puts the runner at 2nd. Ball thrown home instead of limiting the runner to a single. It's the little mistakes like that which define this team.
Plastiak home run gives UK the lead again. He doesn't hit often, but when he does he hits it hard. 17 hits in conference play and 6 of them are home runs. Crazy.
2-1 going to the bottom 3.
2-1 going to the bottom 3.
Harney was in a huge jam with bases loaded and 1 out, but he gets a routine ground ball for a double play to end the Florida threat in the 7th. UK still leading 4-1.
14 or 15, better get busy.
Nice, tho improbable, win. Pitching was nails, finally got timely hitting/defense. Guilfoil is nails.
Shouldn't need 14 or 15 to make the SEC tournament. Will need 14 or 15 to get into the NCAA tournament though. Just 9 games left in league play, so we'd have to win all but 1 of them to be assured that we get into the NCAA tournament. So, basically kiss that dream goodbye.
To get into the SEC tournament you have to finish 12th or better. There are still some games being played today, so how those factor out will be pretty big. Ole Miss right now has 7 league wins and they are currently losing by 1 run to Arkansas. Missouri has 6 wins right now and they are currently losing after the top of the first to Miss State 3-0.
So, best case scenario, UK would be 13th in the league (both Missouri and Ole Miss hold the tiebreaker over UK) in league play after today.
I think, to be comfortable about it, UK will need to get to 11 wins. Even then, it is likely close and they'll only be a game or so up. I am still predicting that UK gets just 9 wins. They likely get swept by Tennessee and then I don't think they take the series from USC or from Auburn. So, 9 total... which I think leaves them at home for the post season, SEC and NCAA.
Yeah, my bad. I was thinking NCAA tourney. SCAR, supposedly with the most injuries of SEC teams, swept Bama this weekend so that series looks doubtful.
Terrific game all around and fun to watch. Great way to end the weekend!
So right now Kentucky is last in the SEC even though there record is tied with Mizzou and Ole Miss.
Ole Miss plays Mizzou this weekend. So that doesn’t really help UK.
Mizzou has Florida and Georgia left.
Ole Miss has Texas A&M and LSU left.
That’s a rough path for Kentucky to make the SEC.
Ole Miss plays Mizzou this weekend. So that doesn’t really help UK.
Mizzou has Florida and Georgia left.
Ole Miss has Texas A&M and LSU left.
That’s a rough path for Kentucky to make the SEC.
Looking at that you have to know that either Missouri or Ole Miss get at least 2 more wins. For argument sake we will say Ole Miss gets 2.
That mean after next weekend it's likely that UK is 7-17, Missouri 8-16, and Ole Miss 9-15.
It's most important here to point out that UK has to finish ahead of these teams. Tying with them leaves us behind because we lost head to head.
UK then has 6 games to make up at least 2 games against Missouri and 3 games against Ole Miss. Plus any extra wins they get. Say they both get 2 more wins... that means UK has to get to 12 wins, or win 5 of their last 6, or steal a game from Tennessee to get to 12.
Best case scenario... the Ole Miss/Missouri series goes 2-1 and then they get swept the rest of the way. Then UK would need just 3 wins in 9 games to make the SEC.
Gross.
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Gross is right. But let’s expand a little bit.
Kentucky probably loses the series against Tennessee. But I don’t think they get swept. So they are 8-16. Ole Miss wins the series against Mizzou. Ole Miss is 9-15 and Mizzou is 8-16. Kentucky is still in last place.
The USC series is hard to choose. But I think with it being on the road I’ll give the nod to USC. Kentucky sets at 9-18. Mizzou loses the series against Florida but isn’t swept. They check in at 9-18 too. I’m just guessing here but in think Ole Miss wins the series in LSU. Don’t know why I feel that way. So that puts the Rebels at 11-16. If that happens, that will eliminate Kentucky from the SEC regardless of what happens in the last week.
Actually, that’s wrong. UK would have to sweep Auburn and hope Ole Miss gets swept by Texas A&M. That’s if the above plays out.
With 9 games left anything can happen, but the bad thing for UK is that we have lost the series to every team that is around us in the standings, so that means that we have to finish a game ahead of them to finish higher in the standings. Any tie with them and they get the tie-breaker.
Right now there are:
3 teams with 7 wins (Kentucky, Missouri, and Ole Miss)
1 team with 8 wins (Florida)
3 teams with 9 wins (Miss State, Alabama, USC)
I think to have the most possibilities of getting in UK needs to win 4 of the last 9. That puts us at 11 wins.
We know that one of Missouri/Ole Miss will have no more than 8 wins next week. I think the loser of that series is likely looking at last place (if we aren't). At that point, UK has to hope that whoever loses that series only wins 2 more games. That isn't inconceivable with who they have to play. Ole Miss hasn't won a series since they beat us first weekend of April.
So, that puts the team probably vying for last place at no more than 10 wins. We have to finish ahead of them with 11.
That gets us to 13th. So, how do we get to 12th?
Well, whoever wins the Missouri/Ole Miss series will have 9 wins. So, we can hope that they only get 1 other 1 in league play, which is possible. I think it is more probable with the remaining Ole Miss schedule (LSU and TAMU) than the remaining Missouri one (Florida and Georgia). If they finish with 10 and we get the 11, then we're in. Possible, but a tall task. I think, if we want UK to make the SEC tournament, we need to be cheering for Ole Miss this weekend.
Florida has 8 wins, but they have Miss State, Missouri, and USC to close it out, so they are going to get at least 3 more wins, if not take every series and they might finish with as much as 14 wins. So, I think it is unlikely that they finish below UK.
** USC has 9 wins... they close out with Kentucky, Florida, and Texas A&M. At a minimum, I think they get 2 wins in there. Maybe 1 against us and 1 against Florida. That is best case scenario for UK. If that happens then UK needs to take the head to head and get that tie breaker at 11 wins. Again, it is possible, but this means UK has to win the series and it means that either Florida or TAMU need to sweep them.
** Alabama has 9 wins and they finish with LSU, Auburn, Arkansas. I think they too likely get at least 2 wins from that, but there is some big possibilities for sweeps here. Still, call it 11. If UK doesn't take a game from Tennessee then Alabama would have the tiebreaker as they did take a game from them. If both Bama and UK beat Tennessee once then it goes to who has the best record against Arkansas. UK was swept by them, so we'd need them to have the same happen to Alabama in the last weekend. It would go on from there comparing records against common opponents, and UK winning the Georgia series could save us.
** Miss State would be an interesting one. They have a tough remaining schedule, including facing Tennessee in the last weekend. They have 9 wins. They face TAMU, Florida, and Tennessee. It isn't inconceivable that they get swept by UT and then lose the other two series giving them just 11 wins. Again, if UK can get to 11 and take 1 game from Tennessee then that gives us the tiebreaker ahead of Miss State. If we both get swept by Tennessee and UK still miraculously makes it to 11 wins, then the head to head compares to second place, which is Arkansas, and Miss State gets the nod given that they took 1 game from them.
Some wild scenarios possible, and even more that could come up with more sweeps happening and such. Still, I think that 11 is the magic number to get to.
It’s looking like there may be very few options for UK and Tennessee to play this weekend. Rain all three days.
