Cats Are 126th in Turnover Margin.
- Thread starter The-Hack
- Start date
Contrary to popular opinion, statistics do not average out. If Kentucky is truly a turnover machine, they will stay at the bottom of the turnover list. If, on the other hand, the turnover numbers in the first half of the season was an aberration ( the normal curve goes to infinity in both directions), and they are not really a turnover machine, we can expect their ranking to improve greatly over the last half of the season
This stat should encourage fans. It means we haven't even reached our potential, not by far. If we are able to overcome turnovers and still be 6-0, then we are actually potentially better than our current status. It's incumbent on the coaching staff to clean up these turnovers and tighten up this team. This is the best team we've seen in 50 years. Don't waste it by blowing it in an area that is SO controllable.
My thought is the TO margin rank will still look poor by the end of the year b/c the early hole was so deep.
If the Cats have +1 TO margin each game for the rest of the year, I think most of us fans would be pretty happy with that. However, that would still be -2 on the year, which would currently be tied for 103rd. Even if the Cats just get to the point of breaking even on the year (which would be good), that would still rank 72nd.
It would be great if the defense can start creating massive TOs, but I think as long as the offense doesn't gift the opposing defenses the way they were the first few weeks, this team will be fine.
Does not really matter where Kentucky ranks over the whole season since they are 6-0 and the turnovers didn't hurt. The rank over the next six games will be what matters and a plus margin over those six games would be really helpful.
Totally agree - my point was just in regards to ranking - did you mean poll rank or TO margin rank?
If you mean in the polls, I completely agree. With a plus TO margin, this team will have a good chance to win every remaining game. Admittedly- unless it’s a HUGE plus TO margin in Athens, I don’t think the Cats pull that off.
So, here’s to plus 4 or 5 in TO margin in Athens. 😎
We've had 1 TO in the last 2 games, against the 2 best teams we've played to date. Looks like we have cleaned it up.
Im hoping for +2 or +3. Feel like that’s what it’s going to take for us to have a shot at beating them.
I think it's interesting to look back and see how many turnovers we had, but overall it's not a very useful stat.
If we lose Saturday, how many people will say "well, if we didn't have 4 turnovers against the Gamecocks we might have beat Georgia!".
It showed that we had some stuff to fix. Outside of that, meh. Makes no difference going forward as long as we take care of the ball at this point.
If we lose Saturday, how many people will say "well, if we didn't have 4 turnovers against the Gamecocks we might have beat Georgia!".
It showed that we had some stuff to fix. Outside of that, meh. Makes no difference going forward as long as we take care of the ball at this point.
Yes, but the one turnover we created against LSU set the tone.
You literally just described statistics averaging out.
No I did not. I said if Kentucky is not a turnover machine, their turnover ranking would be higher in the second half of the year. If their turnover margin is zero for the second half (as many takeaways as turnovers ), they would still be -8 for the year. It is true that if a given outcome is equally positive or negative (as in the flipping of an honest coin), for a large number of trials, the number of positive outcomes and positive outcomes should approach 50%. But if you have flipped an honest coin 5 times and got 5 heads, the probability of getting a tails on the 6th flip is still exactly 50%. There is no requirement to average out.
You did it again.
If Kentucky’s true turnover margin is -0.5 per game, but we started the season at -3.0, then as we play more games we’d expect the average to track closer and closer to -0.5, the true average, also known as the mean.
It’s called the law of large numbers. It’s a foundational principle of statistical analysis and it literally posits that outcomes track towards their true average over time.
That's true. The law of large numbers is usually stated to become valid for 30 or more cases, that the cases be independent, and that the underlying distribution has not changed. Half a season (6 games) is too small a sample to determine the true average. If you have a high number of takeaways you may just be lucky and if you have a high number of turnovers you may just be unlucky in that time frame. I agree that a team's trueturnover margin over time should be around zero if turnovers and takeaways are equally likely.
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