Can/will the Bat Cats qualify for Hoover
- Thread starter 12375CAT
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Right now, they are tied with Mississippi State but I actually think State has a leg up due to the Arkansas series. We were swept and they won one in that series. But they finish with Texas A&M and Tennessee. Mizzou is basically eliminated being two games back. It’ll be hard for them to make those games up with what is remaining on the schedule. If Kentucky wins the series this weekend, they have to feel good about getting into the SEC regardless of what happens against Auburn.
I think UK is almost a lock to make the SEC tournament. To make the tournament you must finish 12th or better.
Right now, Kentucky is tied for 13th with Mississippi State with a record of 9-15. Missouri is in 14th with a record of 7-17.
There are 3 teams within reach for UK with 10 wins (South Carolina and Alabama). Ole Miss and Florida have 10 and 11 wins respectively, but UK lost their series to both of them, and would need to finish at least 1 game ahead of them if they want to finish higher than them.
I consider UK almost a lock because Miss State has to play at Texas A&M (#21) and Tennessee (#1); while UK has to play at South Carolina and Auburn (#18). So, UK has a much more favorable schedule. However, even if UK and Miss State finish with the same record, the tie breaker would be their record against the best common common opponent, which would be Tennessee. UK has beaten Tennessee more than anyone else this season, so it is unlikely that Miss State gets 2+ wins from them.
Obviously, UK could improve their lot by beating South Carolina. Win 2 of 3 and UK and South Carolina have the same record going into the last weekend with UK holding the tie breaker.
Next likely opponent they could conceivably catch would be Alabama. Alabama plays Auburn (#18) and Arkansas (#3) to close out the season. They are also reeling right now having lost their last 4 series, including getting swept by USC. They could get swept in the next two. So, it wouldn't take much for UK to overtake them. UK would also just need to finish tied with them to be ranked higher than them due to the tiebreaker, once again, being the team that has the best record against common opponents (Tennessee) and Alabama only beat them once.
Ole Miss is technically within reach because they play LSU (#19) and TAMU (#21), but UK has to finish higher than them and not tied. So, being that UK is 1 game behind in true numbers, they are really 2 games behind. So, if Ole Miss wins 2 of the last 6 it means that UK has to win 4 of the last 6. That isn't impossible in a number of ways, but not as likely.
So, I would say that UK could finish as low as 12th and as high as 10th.
In the tournament, the top 4 teams get a 1st round bye. So, if we finish 12th we'll play the 5 seed. That is currently Georgia or Auburn. If we finish 11th we play the 6, which is currently Georgia or Auburn. 10th we play the 7, which is Vandy. Of course, they are all subject to change and it is really hard to know how those will fall given the merry-go-round of the last 6 games.
Pretty excited to be able to go to the games this weekend when they come to town in Columbia, SC. Was hoping thy would be playing for something when they got here, and they are!! I really think (miraculously) there could be a legitimate chance of making the NCAA tournament if things go well enough these last 6 games and the SEC tourney. How can people not be excited right now at a possible season turn around these last 9 SEC games? Anyone gonna be in Columbia this weekend?
That mizzu series we threw away looms large. Felt like they played up to UT and their #1 ranking last weekend. In the end I’ll be pretty surprised if we get in but I’m pessimistic when it comes to Ming’s teams.
Completely disagree. MSU ends with A&M on the road (best they could reasonably hope for is to win 1 game) and then UT at home (same).
UK, on the other hand, gets to play a beatable USC team in columbia (we should expect to win 1-2 there) and then Auburn at home (we should win 1 minimum and I think it's reasonable to expect to win this series at home).
In my opinion, the most likely record for UK is to end at 12-18 in the SEC (with a realistic chance at 13-17) and the most likely record for MSU is (11-19 with a very realistic shot at 10-20).
An interesting part is that both UK and USC seem to have this Jekyll and Hyde thing going on. USC took 2 of 3 from Vandy and swept Alabama, who was playing fine prior to that, but they also, like UK, lost the series to Ole Miss and to Missouri.
I think both tend to be a bit more competitive at home rather than on the road. So, we will see how that plays out for this weekend.
I think you misread what my first sentence. What I meant was MSU was actually ahead of Kentucky in the standings but I realized later I was wrong on my math. I didn’t mean that State had a better path to Hoover, just ahead in the standings.
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