Breaking down the Cats and Colonels

[UKErik]

Kentucky takes a break from SEC play this weekend. Hopefully, UK fans get a break too. The Cats have played four stomach churners (with all four games being in doubt with two minutes remaining). All four contests were decided by one score. It's been extremely rare at UK to see such close games to open a season. How rare? The last time UK's first four games were decided by one score was 1979. One thing Coach Stoops has to be happy with is how both sides of the football has performed at "winning time". The offense scored a late TD to beat Lafayette and ran the clock out at South Carolina and against Missouri with big first downs. The defense picked up crucial stops in all four games. Play in crunch time is, IMO, the highlight of the season so far. Eastern Kentucky heads to Lexington 2-1. They've played one game against a P5 school, North Carolina State. Eastern lost 35-0. EKU has three previous appearances at Commonwealth Stadium (0-3 while being outscored 139-29). UK is likely to get little pushback on their way to 4-1. Hopefully, they catch a break with the injury bug.

Series
Kentucky leads 3-0
Last meeting (2009 in Lexington): Kentucky 37 EKU 12

Line (5dimes)
Kentucky -32

Time/TV
7:30 Eastern/SEC Network Alternate

Kentucky offense vs. EKU defense: Advantage Kentucky
It's been a a strange and inconsistent start for the UK offense. They've looked good at times, awful at others. Inconsistency has been a problem at every position group. EKU is an opportunity for Kentucky to iron out some of those problems. Jo Jo Kemp will get the nod at running back (looks like Boom won't be playing at all), and that's not surprising considering his performance against Missouri. Kemp might not be UK's best athlete at RB, but he seems to do the best job of finding a hole. Patrick Towles came up huge against Missouri. At this point, it is what it is with the junior QB. Hopefully, the mechanical "tweak" made by Shannon Dawson helps Towles become more consistent. After a tough week against Florida, the Cats WR's and OL looked better (especially the WR's). The OL is kind of a mess right now (some minor injuries have creeped in as well). UK will have some new starters this weekend. Against NC State, the Colonels defense held their own early but allowed 443 yards of total offense (5.7 yards per play). Eastern's d-line struggled in that game, coming up with just 5 TFL. They did have a couple of sacks. Overall, this should be your typical FBS vs. FCS football game (not like Jacksonville State/Auburn). The Colonels defense will be hard pressed to deal with UK's WR's. EKU could hang around for a while if the Cats passing game reverts to the mistake prone mess it was vs. Florida. UK's running game should be effective. I imagine Kemp and Horton will see 10+ carries in this one.

Kentucky defense vs. EKU offense: Advantage Kentucky
The most surprising thing about 2015 has been, IMO, the defense. This unit was put in a position to get a "must" stop in all four games (and inside the final five minutes). Kentucky got the stop every time. In three league games, UK has allowed only 5 touchdowns. And of those five TD's, two were short drives (1 and 19 yards) after INT returns. The defense seems to be getting better every week. The return of Flannigan and Hatcher along with the emergence of CJ Johnson and FR CB Chris Westry seems to have taken this defense to a different level. No, this defense hasn't been "dominant" necessarily, but they've held the first three league opponents to 22 or fewer points. The last time UK did that...1978. Against NC State, the Colonels offense was woeful. EKU gained just 112 yards on 44 plays. The running game was especially atrocious (23 carries for 35 yards). The Colonels do throw the football quite a bit, but I can't imagine UK will have much problem matching up with the Eastern skill guys. Overall, as long as Kentucky is focused, this should be a mismatch (EKU's offense ranks 90th nationally at the FCS level).

Special Teams: Advantage Kentucky
EKU has excellent punt and kick return teams, ranking in the top 25 in both. I think it's just a matter of time before UK freshman Sihiem King busts one. I have a lot less confidence in Ryan Timmons returning punts. Hopefully, something good will happen for him this weekend.

EKU will win if...they can grind out about 25 first downs, possess the ball for about 40 minutes, force 3-4 turnovers, and significantly shorten the game with long offensive possessions.

Kentucky will win if...they're focused and take their opponent seriously.

Most important thing for Kentucky...a quick start. Whenever you have a mismatch like this, the most important thing is to start fast. Allowing inferior opponents to hang around and shorten the game can lead to disaster.

Prediction...Kentucky 48 EKU 10...The Cats should be able to dominate this matchup. EKU had a very difficult time with NC State. I'm guessing they have just as hard a time with Kentucky. Cats move to 4-1!!!

Previous Picks
Kentucky 55 Louisiana 10 (UK 40-33)
Kentucky 34 S Carolina 31 (UK 26-22)
Kentucky 27 Florida 23 (UF 14-9)
Kentucky 24 Missouri 17 (UK 21-13)

GBB!!!

 

[johnnyrockets]

Great write up. Thanks Erik

 

[Kooky Kats]

Thank you sir.

I predict a close game til late 3rd q.

Cats - 30
Bar fight losers- 14

 

[John Barleycorn]

I hope King gets some carries or some screen passes. I'd like to see what he can do with the ball in his hands.

 

[JHB4UK]

I don't think there is any question we will see some faces in the 2nd & 3rd string ranks out there quite a bit on Saturday. Barker will get his first live game snaps, King will get plenty of time at tailback, other receivers will get chances at catches like Montgomery & Bone, Allen time at linebacker.

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

Can't wait to see Barker play.

 

[Chuckinden]

EKU will win if...they can grind out about 25 first downs, possess the ball for about 40 minutes, force 3-4 turnovers, and significantly shorten the game with long offensive possessions.

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[Comebakatz3]

I want to see the Kentucky offense run smoothly and efficiently and I want to see us develop some of our depth. The starting defensive players just need to stay healthy and out of trouble. Do those things and it will be a successful Saturday.

 

[Rifleman521]

While the O line play was better against Missouri, the lack of movement in their feet and hips is still allowing defenders to shed blocks and make tackles on plays that take a little time to develop. I think that one of the biggest reasons that Kemp has had success running the ball is that he hits the hole quickly and gets through the LOS before defenders can shed blocks. If the lack of athleticism is the reason our O line doesn't move their feet and hips (and I think that is probably the case, because Schlarmann as an undersized O lineman himself had to have good feet and hip movement and thus has to stressing such to his O linemen) is the cause, then running plays up the middle need to be quick hitters.

 

[Blouman]

About Timmons, everyone knows he's made every mistake you could make on punt returns. And no one knows that better than him. I expect
better results from him for the rest of the season and wouldn't be surprised if he busts one this game. I'm calling it!!

 

[fabcat]

^ I'm not concerned with him breaking one. I'm happy with him catching the ball and securing it. Anything above that is gravy.

 

[mrschwump]

Noticed Mobley didn't play for them last week, will he return vs UK?

 

[Blouman]

^ I'm not concerned with him breaking one. I'm happy with him catching the ball and securing it. Anything above that is gravy.

I'm not "concerned" either. I'm just saying nobody knows better than him the mistakes he's been making. I think he'll clean it up.

 

[Devils58]

This will be a great opportunity for coach Stoops to get a "live" look at some young guys. I think we'll see a lot of Jordan Jones, Nikko Firrios (if he can play), Josh Allen, Derrick Baity, and Darrius West on defense. On offense the big name is Drew Barker. I really think Stoops wants to get 2 solid quarters of Barker playing on Saturday. I'm also excited to see Sihiem King get some touches and if Alex Montgomery can get some snaps at WR.

Hopefully the starters do their job and get this thing over with as quickly as possible. We need an injury free game, the starters need to be crisp, and the staff really needs to get quality game looks at the backups. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced UK handles their business this weekend. UK will be off next week as they prepare for a MASSIVE Thursday night showdown with Auburn at Commonwealth. As important as the Florida game was (still pisses me off), the Auburn game could be as important if not more. The eyes of the nation will be on the Kentucky football team in the Auburn Thursday night game. If UK wins, not only does it influence pollsters, but people across the nation will start to see the direction of the UK football program.

1st things first: beat EKU, which UK will have no problem doing. On a side note, I hope the game is so far out of hand late in the 4th, that freshman walk on Logan Blue from Owensboro High could get some snaps. It's a long shot but it'd be pretty sweet to see him out there.

Kentucky 56
EKU 7

 

[BoulderCat]

Nice job. Thanks as always. Really nice job on your score pick last week! There is some moaning about this game, but I see a lot of opportunity in it for, first off a win, and second a number of young player's to get some PT. And let's not forget this is kind of UK doing EKU a favor. I'm all for that. I'm thinking 45-14. It is very hard though I admit not to look ahead to the Auburn game with a great deal of excitement. Counting on the staff and team to not let that happen with them.

 

[fabcat]

Noticed Mobley didn't play for them last week, will he return vs UK?

I believe he has been banged up a little but I would expect him to try and go against UK.

 

[*Bleedingblue*]

really hope we jump out to a big lead early so our young guys can get some much needed pt.

 

[maysvilleky]

I'm really happy the Boom thing has happened during the EKU week, so it really has no impact on the final result. But if it turns into a longer term issue, then I could see injuries being a potential problem at RB. First and foremost UK needs to secure the win, but 1A would be come out of the game healthy.

 

[southindycat]

Nice summary of the situation, perhaps best summarized by pointing all of us to the NC State contest for perspective on EKU.

I expect we will see King get some carries Saturday. I will not be shocked if he is allowed to return some punts in the second half if we really separate from them significantly (i.e. lead by >28 pts). I hope we see Boom. Guess we might yet, since today is Wednesday.

I expect our offense to prove far too much for EKU to handle. This game should look kind of like ULL redux (not quite the same opponent) and I expect Dawson will take pains to try to achieve a bit more ball control this time around. This game should result in a methodical beating of just the type Erik suggests.

 

[mark0202]

As always good stuff!

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Timmons has been a huge disappointment in the PR game. But I think this week he'll get a big one. Against this caliber of competition, he can get away with all the east/west movement and make a big play.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

Thanks for great insightful post, and like many others on here - I hope our young guys get plenty of reps so that the staff can coach them up.....

 

[RV2]

Kentucky takes a break from SEC play this weekend...

An always anticipated thread and as usual excellent breakdown.

 

[ORCAT]

Thanks, Erik, always enjoy reading your breakdown posts. Just hoping that UK jumps out early and often and that we can see a little bit of Barker in the game in the 2nd half. He needs to take some snaps, just in case, and I'd love to see what he can do given a chance.

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

This should be a feel good game for the team. As long as they come in focused and ready to play, it should give starters a chance to cheer on the guys who don't get to play too often.

I expect us to go full throttle in the first half and go into the half with a commanding lead...thinking 28-0. 2nd half may get a little sloppy but even our backups are more talented than EKUs starters. EKU probably gets a score that they wouldn't have with the 1st team in there, so I'll go with 49-10.

Things I think we'll see: Barker throwing a TD, King taking one to the house, and a defensive touchdown. I fully expect us to have close to 500 yards in this game, maybe more.

I know Stoops said he is not going to let anyone get out of hand because of the bar fight, but you better believe these guys have been waiting to exact a little revenge, in the way of embarrassing this team. They'll be gentlemen about it, but they will take it out on the Colonels.

Most importantly is getting backups reps and getting out of their healthy. Accomplish those two things and we should be ready to take on a dangerous Auburn team that is kind of painted into a corner right now. I believe we can win but I also think we're going to have to play very well to do it.

 

[UKCatnNC]

Thanks UKErik. I agree with your game breakdown. I am looking forward to seeing some new faces on the field. Go Cats!!

 

[anon_013cn8yrfncx2]

A quick start ??? In a sure-win game this is not always the best altho against EKU don't think it matters.. A team in a trap game, if they get a quick score, sometimes thinks its all over and then they go flat. Sometimes when you go flat you can't turn it back on.. Again, don't think EKU can win period. 42-3

 

[BengalWACO]

Erik you are awesome! thank you again kind Sir.

 

[pascat]

Excellent analysis, Erik. My #1 hope for this game is for special teams to show up in FORCE against EKU. UK should be able to afford to gamble a bit on special teams, knowing that even if it backfires, they should be able to win comfortably. I want to see no less than 3 attempts to block a punt and I want every kickoff that doesn't sail out of the end zone to be returned.