Big Season Hinges On Big November?

[YaketySax]

Depth is so important over the course of a season. Maybe even more so when trying to project finishing a season. After omitting a late-season FCS opponent - sometimes scheduled for homecoming - Kentucky's record against its last five P5 opponents since 2016:

2016 3-2
2017 2-3
2018 3-2
2019 3-2
2020 2-3
2021 2-3
2022 2-3

In 2023, the last five games are:

• hosting preseason Top 25 Tennessee
• at Miss St. (last time we won there?)
• hosting title contender Alabama
• at SCAR
• at rival UofL

Now, 2021 season had 10 wins despite a 2-3 finish, but that season started with six straight wins too. The last few years have also been buffered by the fact that UofL has been abysmal. I don't have a prediction, but when I'm trying to figure out the season win total I'm focusing on three of the last five road games being on the road. And the two home games against two tough opponents.

Feels like gotta start the season at least 4-0 or 5-0 to have a big year - 9 or more wins imo.

 

[vhcat70]

What's a big year?

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Depth is so important over the course of a season. Maybe even more so when trying to project finishing a season. After omitting a late-season FCS opponent - sometimes scheduled for homecoming - Kentucky's record against its last five P5 opponents since 2016:

2016 3-2
2017 2-3
2018 3-2
2019 3-2
2020 2-3
2021 2-3
2022 2-3

In 2023, the last five games are:

• hosting preseason Top 25 Tennessee
• at Miss St. (last time we won there?)
• hosting title contender Alabama
• at SCAR
• at rival UofL

Now, 2021 season had 10 wins despite a 2-3 finish, but that season started with six straight wins too. The last few years have also been buffered by the fact that UofL has been abysmal. I don't have a prediction, but when I'm trying to figure out the season win total I'm focusing on three of the last five road games being on the road. And the two home games against two tough opponents.

Feels like gotta start the season at least 4-0 or 5-0 to have a big year - 9 or more wins imo.

If UK isn't 4-0 to start the season you are probably right about it not being the season everyone is wanting/expecting. Of course that is staying healthy. UF is expecting to be much better, they have a stronger RB room, a multi year starter transfer at QB and expecting a much improved offense and better defensively. Of course as fans we all expecting that. I don't think they will be physical enough to deal with UK.

UGA will return 7 starters on offense, one of them isn't Stetson, can replace his arm, but he brought alot more, new QB with no starting experience, starting season with thin RB room, but best receiver group we had in my memory if you include TE. Return 7 starters on D, No one at Carter's level but everyone has another year of experience. UK is always a tough game because we play so much alike, games could have gone other direction on a couple plays.

Missouri, I don't really know much about their roster, they have a big time WR who will be a sophomore. And he need to thank Carolina for hiring Beamer, otherwise he is the oddest head coach in the conference. Think UK will be too physical for them.

UT, we all know what we need to do, get prepared for their pace. They made fun of Stetson being a 6 year guy, yet those morons are trotting back to back 6 year guys. They are claiming to be much improved defensively, but that offense doesn't lead to good defenses. Pretty simple, don't give up the easy scores and physically beat them up, UK wins, give them a couple early scores and lose to them.

State will be different without The Pirate, but they will bring an elite passer, future SEC yardage leader., 3 year starter who will make good decisions. I don't know why CMS and the Cats struggle there, much better team and still its a war. I think UK will win, but I have thought that for a long time.

This is a tough Bama team to figure out, no proven QB, RB, WR and some defensive leaders are gone. Right now may be the weakest Bama team the last 10 years. I think they lose 4 games this including both East division games.

Carolina is still an OL away, They have a high end WR and a multi year starter at QB. But I think that OL allows too much pressure and Rattler isn't very good under pressure.

Louisville is tough enough on either LOS to stand up.

I see the floor 8-4 and number 4 depending on UK just being off 1 day. 12-0 being the ceiling,

 

[hmt5000]

If UK isn't 4-0 to start the season you are probably right about it not being the season everyone is wanting/expecting. Of course that is staying healthy. UF is expecting to be much better, they have a stronger RB room, a multi year starter transfer at QB and expecting a much improved offense and better defensively. Of course as fans we all expecting that. I don't think they will be physical enough to deal with UK.

UGA will return 7 starters on offense, one of them isn't Stetson, can replace his arm, but he brought alot more, new QB with no starting experience, starting season with thin RB room, but best receiver group we had in my memory if you include TE. Return 7 starters on D, No one at Carter's level but everyone has another year of experience. UK is always a tough game because we play so much alike, games could have gone other direction on a couple plays.

Missouri, I don't really know much about their roster, they have a big time WR who will be a sophomore. And he need to thank Carolina for hiring Beamer, otherwise he is the oddest head coach in the conference. Think UK will be too physical for them.

UT, we all know what we need to do, get prepared for their pace. They made fun of Stetson being a 6 year guy, yet those morons are trotting back to back 6 year guys. They are claiming to be much improved defensively, but that offense doesn't lead to good defenses. Pretty simple, don't give up the easy scores and physically beat them up, UK wins, give them a couple early scores and lose to them.

State will be different without The Pirate, but they will bring an elite passer, future SEC yardage leader., 3 year starter who will make good decisions. I don't know why CMS and the Cats struggle there, much better team and still its a war. I think UK will win, but I have thought that for a long time.

This is a tough Bama team to figure out, no proven QB, RB, WR and some defensive leaders are gone. Right now may be the weakest Bama team the last 10 years. I think they lose 4 games this including both East division games.

Carolina is still an OL away, They have a high end WR and a multi year starter at QB. But I think that OL allows too much pressure and Rattler isn't very good under pressure.

Louisville is tough enough on either LOS to stand up.

I see the floor 8-4 and number 4 depending on UK just being off 1 day. 12-0 being the ceiling,

Is uf expecting to be much better? I have been hearing that think they are still a couple years away from competing.

 

[JHB4UK]

Nobody expects Florida to be "much better", they were 6-7 with the #4 overall draft pick at QB last yr, this yr they are possibly the worst qb room in the SEC. Vegas over under isn't over 6.5 - 7 wins anywhere.

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

With our schedule 8-4 would be a huge accomplishment. Keep Leary healthy and we could do it, he gets hurt 5_7 very possible

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Is uf expecting to be much better? I have been hearing that think they are still a couple years away from competing.

Their fans are, they are thinking 8-4 is their floor and a ceiling of 10-2. They have LSU and Arky from the West, play Utah and FSU ooc games alone with 2 cupcakes. At best they are 4-4 in SEC with them winning all 4 tossup games of Carolina, Arky, Missouri and Vandy. They could lose all of those too. Utah's QB is recovering from ACL and may not play, but they are physical, just may not be able to score, and FSU are tough OOC games.

Gator fans feel they have top RB room in conference, and they might, QB an upgrade and WR upgrade over last season and defense is much improved. Concerned about OL depth is their only concern. I think they win 4, maybe 5, just don't see 6 wins and a couple bad bounces 2-8 isn't out of the question. They aren't good enough to consider any SEC game a sure thing.

 

[Deeeefense]

Is uf expecting to be much better? I have been hearing that think they are still a couple years away from competing.

Their definition of "competing" is not the same as ours, to them that means playing for a conference championship.

 

[Chum83]

I see the floor 8-4 and number 4 depending on UK just being off 1 day. 12-0 being the ceiling,

Thanks for the humility, but we ain’t beating your Bulldogs…especially between the hedges. Anyone else I think we have a chance. Doesn’t mean it’s a good chance or I would pick us to go 11-1, but that’s the ceiling IMO.

 

[Deeeefense]

Gator fans feel they have top RB room in conference, and they might, QB an upgrade

sounds like the Anthony Richardson hype train got derailed, if they are thinking a mediocre transfer is an "upgrade" 😁

 

[Cobb4uk]

If UK isn't 4-0 to start the season you are probably right about it not being the season everyone is wanting/expecting. Of course that is staying healthy. UF is expecting to be much better, they have a stronger RB room, a multi year starter transfer at QB and expecting a much improved offense and better defensively. Of course as fans we all expecting that. I don't think they will be physical enough to deal with UK.

UGA will return 7 starters on offense, one of them isn't Stetson, can replace his arm, but he brought alot more, new QB with no starting experience, starting season with thin RB room, but best receiver group we had in my memory if you include TE. Return 7 starters on D, No one at Carter's level but everyone has another year of experience. UK is always a tough game because we play so much alike, games could have gone other direction on a couple plays.

Missouri, I don't really know much about their roster, they have a big time WR who will be a sophomore. And he need to thank Carolina for hiring Beamer, otherwise he is the oddest head coach in the conference. Think UK will be too physical for them.

UT, we all know what we need to do, get prepared for their pace. They made fun of Stetson being a 6 year guy, yet those morons are trotting back to back 6 year guys. They are claiming to be much improved defensively, but that offense doesn't lead to good defenses. Pretty simple, don't give up the easy scores and physically beat them up, UK wins, give them a couple early scores and lose to them.

State will be different without The Pirate, but they will bring an elite passer, future SEC yardage leader., 3 year starter who will make good decisions. I don't know why CMS and the Cats struggle there, much better team and still its a war. I think UK will win, but I have thought that for a long time.

This is a tough Bama team to figure out, no proven QB, RB, WR and some defensive leaders are gone. Right now may be the weakest Bama team the last 10 years. I think they lose 4 games this including both East division games.

Carolina is still an OL away, They have a high end WR and a multi year starter at QB. But I think that OL allows too much pressure and Rattler isn't very good under pressure.

Louisville is tough enough on either LOS to stand up.

I see the floor 8-4 and number 4 depending on UK just being off 1 day. 12-0 being the ceiling,

Grump, it's a pleasure to read posts by someone that has knowledge of the SEC, someone that actively seeks info to stay informed and usually is level headed with all responses. Thanks for the kind thoughts about our program, I think if we get some breaks and stay healthy it could be a year to remember for years. Reality says somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2, it seems we may win one the shouldn't and lose one we shouldn't, like Miss St or Vandy. It want be long now before we get started.

 

[The Snoke]

If UK isn't 4-0 to start the season you are probably right about it not being the season everyone is wanting/expecting. Of course that is staying healthy. UF is expecting to be much better, they have a stronger RB room, a multi year starter transfer at QB and expecting a much improved offense and better defensively. Of course as fans we all expecting that. I don't think they will be physical enough to deal with UK.

UGA will return 7 starters on offense, one of them isn't Stetson, can replace his arm, but he brought alot more, new QB with no starting experience, starting season with thin RB room, but best receiver group we had in my memory if you include TE. Return 7 starters on D, No one at Carter's level but everyone has another year of experience. UK is always a tough game because we play so much alike, games could have gone other direction on a couple plays.

Missouri, I don't really know much about their roster, they have a big time WR who will be a sophomore. And he need to thank Carolina for hiring Beamer, otherwise he is the oddest head coach in the conference. Think UK will be too physical for them.

UT, we all know what we need to do, get prepared for their pace. They made fun of Stetson being a 6 year guy, yet those morons are trotting back to back 6 year guys. They are claiming to be much improved defensively, but that offense doesn't lead to good defenses. Pretty simple, don't give up the easy scores and physically beat them up, UK wins, give them a couple early scores and lose to them.

State will be different without The Pirate, but they will bring an elite passer, future SEC yardage leader., 3 year starter who will make good decisions. I don't know why CMS and the Cats struggle there, much better team and still its a war. I think UK will win, but I have thought that for a long time.

This is a tough Bama team to figure out, no proven QB, RB, WR and some defensive leaders are gone. Right now may be the weakest Bama team the last 10 years. I think they lose 4 games this including both East division games.

Carolina is still an OL away, They have a high end WR and a multi year starter at QB. But I think that OL allows too much pressure and Rattler isn't very good under pressure.

Louisville is tough enough on either LOS to stand up.

I see the floor 8-4 and number 4 depending on UK just being off 1 day. 12-0 being the ceiling,

I sure hope you are right Grumpy. I have always respected your opinion but dang, that is what my football dreams are made of!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Thanks for the humility, but we ain’t beating your Bulldogs…especially between the hedges. Anyone else I think we have a chance. Doesn’t mean it’s a good chance or I would pick us to go 11-1, but that’s the ceiling IMO.

I feel anyone is capable of beating anyone. No way Vandy beats UK, but sometimes things just don't go your way. Missouri led us deep into 4th quarter last year. UG has to play well to beat UK, they can't bring anything less than the A game. But reality you come with your B game you will lose quite a few conference games.

 

[maysvilleky]

- Ball St, EKU, Akron should be automatic W’s.
- Vandy should be a revenge game that UK takes especially with Davis on our side.
- UF at home is a W if the BBW is back.
- UGA is a tall task so likely first L of the season.
- Missouri should be a W again if the BBW is performing.
- I can see UT being a shoot out but unfortunately UT on paper has enough to send a second Loss to UK.
- MSU, Alabama, USC Jr is the stretch that will determine if it’s a special season. Can UK go 2-1 in those 3?
- UofL will be a W if UK has avoided the injury bug.

So I’m hoping for 9-3 but would be very happy with 8-4. 7-5 would be ehh if the 7th win is against UofL. Anything less is disappointing IMO.