Average salaries on second contract (2012 draft)

[Aike]

OK, didn't look at the whole contract, but rather how many people from the 2012 draft are still in the league, and how much they made last year.

Of the top 10 draft picks from 2012 - all 10 were still in the league last season.

Average salary - $15 million.

Picks 11-20

8 still in the League.

Average salary - $9 milllion.

Picks 21-30

5 still in the league.

Average salary $4.5 million.

Picks 31-40

6 still in the league.

Average salary $7.5 million.

Of great significance, those picks 31-40 included Draymond, Kris Middleton, and Jae Crowder. Those three guys made $36 million between them - 80% of the money made by picks in that range.

Looking at several drafts would be better, but this is a decent start.

What does it tell us? If you're good enough to be a top 10 pick, you are highly likely to get paid well on your second contract.

Late lottery and just outside the lottery fair about half as well, but still very well.

Outside of the top 20? Bit of a crapshoot.

For every Festus Ezeli, there's an Arnette Moultrie.

For every Will Barton there's an Orlando Johnson.

Banking on hitting it big with that second contract? If you are being told you are late first/early second round, maybe "not so fast" is what you should be thinking. Maybe.

This is thread number 302 about you know who. Sorry.

 

[rhstoess]

If Diallo decides to stay in the draft this year, he will likely be missing out on millions of dollars worth of money, considering his lottery pick status for 2018. If he goes where he is projected this year, which is late first/early second round, he will be making less than 1 mil a year over the next 3 years (not even guaranteed). If he goes in the lottery next season (where he's projected), he will make somewhere between 2 and 5 million a year. If he leaves, he either is really trying to hide some major flaws in his game by not playing college basketball, or hes a financial idiot.

 

[gossie21]

Thanks for researching that and putting together the numbers. It makes a pretty compelling argument for maximizing your draft position. Right Mr. Diallo?

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

I'm sure Cal is very knowledgeable about all the numbers and will give it to Diallo straight. If he goes anyway, what are you gonna do?

 

[Aike]

I'm sure Cal is very knowledgeable about all the numbers and will give it to Diallo straight. If he goes anyway, what are you gonna do?

I'm not going to do anything either way. I just like to pick through numbers.

 

[Opinpi]

By your numbers, it's much better to be picked 31-40 than 21-30....don't show Diallo that!

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

OK, didn't look at the whole contract, but rather how many people from the 2012 draft are still in the league, and how much they made last year.

Of the top 10 draft picks from 2012 - all 10 were still in the league last season.

Average salary - $15 million.

Picks 11-20

8 still in the League.

Average salary - $9 milllion.

Picks 21-30

5 still in the league.

Average salary $4.5 million.

Picks 31-40

6 still in the league.

Average salary $7.5 million.

Of great significance, those picks 31-40 included Draymond, Kris Middleton, and Jae Crowder. Those three guys made $36 million between them - 80% of the money made by picks in that range.

Looking at several drafts would be better, but this is a decent start.

What does it tell us? If you're good enough to be a top 10 pick, you are highly likely to get paid well on your second contract.

Late lottery and just outside the lottery fair about half as well, but still very well.

Outside of the top 20? Bit of a crapshoot.

For every Festus Ezeli, there's an Arnette Moultrie.

For every Will Barton there's an Orlando Johnson.

Banking on hitting it big with that second contract? If you are being told you are late first/early second round, maybe "not so fast" is what you should be thinking. Maybe.

This is thread number 302 about you know who. Sorry.

That's good information but I'm not sure it's applicable to Diallo. He isn't that low due to a demonstrated lower talent level, he is projected that low simply due to the unknown. If "people" think he'll be in the lottery after a full year at UK, that is probably the more suitable litmus test for his future earnings. That's a big reason I think he stays in the draft.

 

[Aike]

By your numbers, it's much better to be picked 31-40 than 21-30....don't show Diallo that!

Probably a couple of ways to look at that.

First, there aren't enough numbers to be statistically significant. So a breakdown of several drafts would tell a lot more. Maybe there's already one out there somewhere.

Another thing is that those second rounders who have excelled weren't spring chickens.

Draymond Green and Jae Crowder were grown men. Middleton was coming out as a Junior.

The book was out on those guys, and they were being drafted as much for who they already were as for potential.

A 19 year old who never played getting picked that late wouldn't necessarily be a great look. Diallo needs the scouts to believe in him enough to slot him in that lottery or pretty close.

 

[SilentsAreGolden]

By your numbers, it's much better to be picked 31-40 than 21-30....don't show Diallo that!

I would think it's better to go next year, when he's probably 1-20, and getting even more money.

 

[gossie21]

That's good information but I'm not sure it's applicable to Diallo. He isn't that low due to a demonstrated lower talent level, he is projected that low simply due to the unknown. If "people" think he'll be in the lottery after a full year at UK, that is probably the more suitable litmus test for his future earnings. That's a big reason I think he stays in the draft.

That's the same reasoning used when the Orlando Magic drafted Daniel Orton. It's hit or miss. NBA teams sometimes will value players more highly based on where they were picked. A sort of fallacy of sunk costs.

 

[Aike]

That's good information but I'm not sure it's applicable to Diallo. He isn't that low due to a demonstrated lower talent level, he is projected that low simply due to the unknown. If "people" think he'll be in the lottery after a full year at UK, that is probably the more suitable litmus test for his future earnings. That's a big reason I think he stays in the draft.

What this information should demonstrate is that these NBA guys are pretty locked in on the talent level of the young prospects.

18 of 20 still getting paid (most very well) 5 years later says the scouts and the GMs were mostly right in the first place.

Diallo isn't sneaking by anyone. This line about him getting picked late first/early second this year because he will be a lottery pick next year is smoke.

If teams were so sure he'd be a lottery pick next year, he would go 5-10 this year. It's not like one team is going to okie-doke everyone else.

They don't believe in his jumper, passion, etc. that's why he's 35 right now. If he plays next year and his jumper is broken, and his motor is inconsistent, he could just as easily fall as go lottery.

 

[TBCat]

By your numbers, it's much better to be picked 31-40 than 21-30....don't show Diallo that!

Those numbers are a bit of a fluke that are bloated due to the fact that only a few are still around so a Draymond Green and his salary is going to bloat those numbers. As stated 80% of that money is going to 3 players.

At any rate this goes with the reply I made on another one of these Diallo threads. The talk of the 2nd contract and the rush to get to it is assuming you are a top 15 pick. It makes sense if you are Malik Monk and will be in the top 10. It drops off sharply after that. Let's say you get drafted 21-30. By those numbers it would take about 4 years worth of salary to equal one years worth of a top 10 pick. Don't you think it would be worth investing one year in college to move up? And we are still not talking product endorsements which is for the top players about twice their NBA salary.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

What this information should demonstrate is that these NBA guys are pretty locked in on the talent level of the young prospects.

18 of 20 still getting paid (most very well) 5 years later says the scouts and the GMs were mostly right in the first place.

Diallo isn't sneaking by anyone. This line about him getting picked late first/early second this year because he will be a lottery pick next year is smoke.

If teams were so sure he'd be a lottery pick next year, he would go 5-10 this year. It's not like one team is going to okie-doke everyone else.

They don't believe in his jumper, passion, etc. that's why he's 35 right now. If he plays next year and his jumper is broken, and his motor is inconsistent, he could just as easily fall as go lottery.

I didn't say he was a lock for the lottery next year, if so, that's where he would be taken this year. I'm saying it is quite likely which is why some team will take a flyer on him late first round. They already know the same thing you demonstrated. Once you get over pick 20, it's a coin flip. They won't have lost much if he doesn't work out from that position. If he does they got a steal. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Aike]

I didn't say he was a lock for the lottery next year, if so, that's where he would be taken this year. I'm saying it is quite likely which is why some team will take a flyer on him late first round. They already know the same thing you demonstrated. Once you get over pick 20, it's a coin flip. They won't have lost much if he doesn't work out from that position. If he does they got a steal. That's all I'm saying.

Yeah, I probably didn't word my reply to you very well. But you're right, it only takes one team to take a bit of a flyer for him to go first round.