Article: Breakdown of states with D-1 football players

[Smashcat]

http://footballscoop.com/news/map-players-come/

The NCAA did something great on Tuesday.

The organization provided empirical data to recruiters to show which states are like shooting fish in a barrel and which are like shooting those same fish in Lake Superior. The methodology is admittedly a little bit confusing, comparing the total number of Division I recruits from a 4-year period (2013-16) against the total high school football participation over a 2-year period (2015-16), but the end result still spits out an apples-to-apples comparison.

The 10 target-richest high school football states:

1. Florida — 9.9 percent
2. Georgia — 8.6 percent
3. Louisiana — 8.1 percent
4. Washington, D.C./Maryland — 7.2 percent/6.5 percent
5. South Carolina — 6.2 percent
Tennessee — 6.2 percent
7. North Carolina — 5.9 percent
8. Virginia — 5.6 percent
9. Delaware — 5.1 percent
10. Alabama — 5.0 percent
New Jersey — 5.0 percent
Pennsylvania — 5.0 percent

 

[catben]

Where's Texas?

No way they aren't in the top 5.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Where's Texas?

No way they aren't in the top 5.

Agree, that cannot be right, they may actually be # 1, or no lower than # 3.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

Agree, that cannot be right, they may actually be # 1, or no lower than # 3.

Also, no California !

 

[bigbluewildcat84]

Ohio??

 

[Kybluedude]

Fake news!

 

[Deeeefense]

Delaware baby - go Blue Hens

 

[anon_7tbtqcx308nxh]

Where's Texas?

No way they aren't in the top 5.

Agree, that cannot be right, they may actually be # 1, or no lower than # 3.

Also, no California !

Ohio??

Fake news!

It's by percentage of total overall HS players. In those states, they have a higher number of total players, hence a lower % that play D1. It says as much in the link...

 

[Blueaz]

It's by percentage of total overall HS players. In those states, they have a higher number of total players, hence a lower % that play D1. It says as much in the link...

so just like most "reports", it is skewed to the outcome that was wanted?

 

[fuzz77]

Where's Texas?

No way they aren't in the top 5.

The list is somewhat misleading.
The measure was the % of high school players were recruited by D1 schools....so if 10,000 kids are playing football in that state, what percentage of them were recruited by D1 programs.
Texas came in at 2.7%, Kentucky had 4%.

From the article...
But I have to say it’s surprising to see how far ahead Florida is from the rest of the pack, 1.3 percentage points ahead of the No. 2 state. It’s also a bit surprising to see Texas closer to the bottom 10 than the top 10, but a charitable reading on behalf of the Lone Star State would interpret that as the overall high school football culture in the state drives thousands of players on the field that have no shot at playing college ball (ahem, you’re looking at one of them) that compete out of pure love of the game. Texas still put out 330 total FBS signees in 2016, so I don’t think this chart will lead any head coaches to pull their assistants out of Houston and the Metroplex.

 

[anon_7tbtqcx308nxh]

so just like most "reports", it is skewed to the outcome that was wanted?

Um...no, actually. It's looking at per capita so controlling for population...

 

[jauk11]

The list is somewhat misleading.
The measure was the % of high school players were recruited by D1 schools....so if 10,000 kids are playing football in that state, what percentage of them were recruited by D1 programs.
Texas came in at 2.7%, Kentucky had 4%.

From the article...
But I have to say it’s surprising to see how far ahead Florida is from the rest of the pack, 1.3 percentage points ahead of the No. 2 state. It’s also a bit surprising to see Texas closer to the bottom 10 than the top 10, but a charitable reading on behalf of the Lone Star State would interpret that as the overall high school football culture in the state drives thousands of players on the field that have no shot at playing college ball (ahem, you’re looking at one of them) that compete out of pure love of the game. Texas still put out 330 total FBS signees in 2016, so I don’t think this chart will lead any head coaches to pull their assistants out of Houston and the Metroplex.

Agree, a lot more players go out for football in Texas at all levels. In 2010 when Joker had ZERO four stars in state to try to recruit (and he didn't waste a lot of time trying for four stars) Texas had FORTY FIVE four star players PLUS some five stars.

 

[WildCard]

A peculiar statistical approach. But, in the end, the recruiting impact centers on the number of prospects not a "percentage of players". FWIW, FL usually sees about 300 kids per year earn FBS scholarships.

Peace

 

[jauk11]

A peculiar statistical approach. But, in the end, the recruiting impact centers on the number of prospects not a "percentage of players". FWIW, FL usually sees about 300 kids per year earn FBS scholarships.

Peace

Wow, that is a LOT, that is a full class for 12 schools--------a lot better now but I would guess Kentucky had less than ten in 2010 that went to P5 schools.

 

[WildCard]

Wow, that is a LOT, that is a full class for 12 schools--------a lot better now but I would guess Kentucky had less than ten in 2010 that went to P5 schools.

I may have miscounted by a bit but using the Rivals player data it looks about 340 FL kids earned FBS scholarships in 2016. You got to remember a few smaller FL schools (FIU, FAU) get almost their entire class in state and their are several other smaller out of state schools that almost exclusively recruit FL. Back in the day, Roy Kidd of EKU was famous for recruiting FL very heavily.

Peace

 

[Blueaz]

Um...no, actually. It's looking at per capita so controlling for population...

Woosh

 

[JRowland]

Um...no, actually. It's looking at per capita so controlling for population...

I think in some respects it controls for population, but not in every respect. Florida's is probably high because there are a lot of in-state schools but also every school in the country recruits in Florida (in part because of the known talent/population there) and a lot of those schools look at more fringe talent in Florida because of that. I don't have any empirical data to support this but I do have 16 years covering recruiting so I will say this with confidence. A larger number of schools recruit in Florida than either Texas or California.

 

[dallasg23]

I'd like the cats to peek into the Hampton roads Virginia area some. Been here for a few years now and there's some really good football here.