I just posted about how bad Stoops teams have been after their first loss and after a bye. Many people have said they're not ready for the big time games, either. I thought I'd test that. Some stats...
I began with the 2018 season, when Kentucky turned the corner. From 2018 through this weekend, here's how they've done.
Analysis
The reason Kentucky "can't get over the hump" under Stoops isn't because they aren't ready for the big games. On average, they out-perform expectations in these. By a lot.
I submit the reason Kentucky "can't get over the hump" under Stoops is because they badly under-perform in games after losses and after byes. (See my earlier post.) These have cost them a game they were favored to win in each of their past four seasons.
Stoops teams are beating almost every rank 11-25 team they play, and beating them by more than the oddsmakers expected every time. The next step isn't to beat Georgia. It's to beat Missouri the week after they lose to Georgia.
I began with the 2018 season, when Kentucky turned the corner. From 2018 through this weekend, here's how they've done.
| Record | Record against the spread | Median performance compared to spread | |
| Against all ranked teams | 8-12 | 14-5-1 | Beat spread by 5.25 |
| Against top 10 | 1-11 | 6-5-1 | Beat spread by 2 |
| Against rank 11-25 | 7-1 | 8-0 | Beat spread by 16.75 |
| When favored | 2-0 | 2-0 | Beat spread by 13.75 |
| When less than 10-point underdog | 4-3 | 5-2 | Beat spread by 14 |
| When 10+ point underdog | 2-9 | 7-3-1 | Beat spread by 3.5 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-1 | Beat spread by 12.5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-4-1 | Even |
Analysis
- This is a strong track record. Since 2018, UK teams have consistently and significantly outperformed expectation against ranked opponents.
- It's an amazing track record against ranks 11-25. 7-1 against ranks 11-25 is astounding. And in all 8 of those, they beat the spread, in the wins they beat the spread by 10 or more. (Think of some of the great and dominating wins over Florida, Tennessee, and Miss St over the last few years. To those who ask "What signature victories does Stoops have?" It's these. And they're big.)
- Not good enough to beat top-10 teams, but Kentucky shows up for the games. The team is 1-12 against top 10 opponents, but they're 7-5-1 against the spread. I think this shows that the Cats show up and play as well as expected. This isn't about not showing up prepared. It's about not quite being a top-10 caliber team. (For anyone who gets upset about this, I refer you back to a 7-1 record and 8-0 against the spread against ranks 11-25.)
- Big outperformance against ranked opponents at home. 10-1 against the spread against ranked teams at home shows that they get up for big home games and play well.
The reason Kentucky "can't get over the hump" under Stoops isn't because they aren't ready for the big games. On average, they out-perform expectations in these. By a lot.
I submit the reason Kentucky "can't get over the hump" under Stoops is because they badly under-perform in games after losses and after byes. (See my earlier post.) These have cost them a game they were favored to win in each of their past four seasons.
Stoops teams are beating almost every rank 11-25 team they play, and beating them by more than the oddsmakers expected every time. The next step isn't to beat Georgia. It's to beat Missouri the week after they lose to Georgia.
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