April 4 SEC Update

[Comebakatz3]

Well, UK had a fairly competitive series with Ole Miss this weekend, but couldn't scratch enough runs across to take the series. We sit at 3-5. Here is how the league looks:

Team	Win	Loss	PCT	Overall W	Overall L	PCT
Tennessee	9​	0​	1​	27​	1​	0.964​
Arkansas	7​	2​	0.778​	21​	5​	0.808​
Georgia	6​	3​	0.667​	22​	6​	0.786​
Auburn	5​	4​	0.556​	19​	9​	0.679​
Vanderbilt	4​	5​	0.444​	20​	7​	0.741​
Ole Miss	4​	5​	0.444​	19​	8​	0.704​
LSU	4​	5​	0.444​	19​	9​	0.679​
TAMU	4​	5​	0.444​	16​	11​	0.593​
Miss State	4​	5​	0.444​	17​	12​	0.586​
Alabama	4​	5​	0.444​	17​	12​	586​
Missouri	3​	6​	0.333​	17​	8​	0.68​
Florida	3​	6​	0.333​	18​	10​	0.643​
Kentucky	3​	6​	0.333​	18​	11​	0.621​
South Carolina	3​	6​	0.333​	13​	14​	0.481​

I think the most interesting team in the list is Florida. 3-6. Won 2 from Alabama, but then lost the series to LSU before getting swept by Georgia. Their season could be basically done by the time they get to us as they face Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee the three weekends prior. They could conceivably be going into weekend 7 with just 5 SEC wins. They'd need to finish extremely strong to bounce back from that.

I think that clearly Tennessee is cream of the crop and if Vandy couldn't steal a win from them at home, I'm not sure if anyone can.

Auburn is a big of a surprise. They lost the first series to Ole Miss, but then bounced back and took the next two against TAMU and LSU, both on the road. I don't think they are unbeatable, but it is a solid start for them.

This weekend will be massive for UK. Going down to Texas. Texas A&M isn't great by any means. They stole a series from LSU, but then lost a series to Auburn and Alabama. UK stealing this series would really be big. Only getting one win or none would put us well behind the 8 ball.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Texas A&M was my wildcard on the breakdown I did another post. 2 outta 3 is desperately needed.

After three weeks of conference play my take on the rest of the season really hasn’t changed much. My thoughts.

A&M: on the road but still think UK wins the series. 2/1

Mizzou: I’ll admit. Mizzou is scrappy. But UK should be better. UK wins 2/1

Vandy: which Vandy team shows up is the question. But I give the edge to Vandy. 1/2

Florida: UF is a mess. What will they look like coming into this series is anyones guess. I think UK wins this one. 2/1

Tennessee: can we skip this one. I think UT sweeps. 0/3

South Carolina: This one is tricky. And it depends on where both programs are at this point. I’ll give the edge to Kentucky. 2/1

Auburn: See above with South Carolina. But I think Auburn is better than I thought at the beginning of the year. But I also think Kentucky will be playing for their postseason dreams. UK wins 2/1.

That gives UK a 14-16 in conference play. Now we all know baseball is a fickle sport and anything can happen. Let’s just hope we’re not going into that Auburn series playing for it all.

 

[mrschwump]

Well, UK had a fairly competitive series with Ole Miss this weekend, but couldn't scratch enough runs across to take the series. We sit at 3-5. Here is how the league looks:

Team	Win	Loss	PCT	Overall W	Overall L	PCT
Tennessee	9​	0​	1​	27​	1​	0.964​
Arkansas	7​	2​	0.778​	21​	5​	0.808​
Georgia	6​	3​	0.667​	22​	6​	0.786​
Auburn	5​	4​	0.556​	19​	9​	0.679​
Vanderbilt	4​	5​	0.444​	20​	7​	0.741​
Ole Miss	4​	5​	0.444​	19​	8​	0.704​
LSU	4​	5​	0.444​	19​	9​	0.679​
TAMU	4​	5​	0.444​	16​	11​	0.593​
Miss State	4​	5​	0.444​	17​	12​	0.586​
Alabama	4​	5​	0.444​	17​	12​	586​
Missouri	3​	6​	0.333​	17​	8​	0.68​
Florida	3​	6​	0.333​	18​	10​	0.643​
Kentucky	3​	6​	0.333​	18​	11​	0.621​
South Carolina	3​	6​	0.333​	13​	14​	0.481​

I think the most interesting team in the list is Florida. 3-6. Won 2 from Alabama, but then lost the series to LSU before getting swept by Georgia. Their season could be basically done by the time they get to us as they face Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee the three weekends prior. They could conceivably be going into weekend 7 with just 5 SEC wins. They'd need to finish extremely strong to bounce back from that.

I think that clearly Tennessee is cream of the crop and if Vandy couldn't steal a win from them at home, I'm not sure if anyone can.

Auburn is a big of a surprise. They lost the first series to Ole Miss, but then bounced back and took the next two against TAMU and LSU, both on the road. I don't think they are unbeatable, but it is a solid start for them.

This weekend will be massive for UK. Going down to Texas. Texas A&M isn't great by any means. They stole a series from LSU, but then lost a series to Auburn and Alabama. UK stealing this series would really be big. Only getting one win or none would put us well behind the 8 ball.

Questionable that UK finishes above .500.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Texas A&M was my wildcard on the breakdown I did another post. 2 outta 3 is desperately needed.

After three weeks of conference play my take on the rest of the season really hasn’t changed much. My thoughts.

A&M: on the road but still think UK wins the series. 2/1

Mizzou: I’ll admit. Mizzou is scrappy. But UK should be better. UK wins 2/1

Vandy: which Vandy team shows up is the question. But I give the edge to Vandy. 1/2

Florida: UF is a mess. What will they look like coming into this series is anyones guess. I think UK wins this one. 2/1

Tennessee: can we skip this one. I think UT sweeps. 0/3

South Carolina: This one is tricky. And it depends on where both programs are at this point. I’ll give the edge to Kentucky. 2/1

Auburn: See above with South Carolina. But I think Auburn is better than I thought at the beginning of the year. But I also think Kentucky will be playing for their postseason dreams. UK wins 2/1.

That gives UK a 14-16 in conference play. Now we all know baseball is a fickle sport and anything can happen. Let’s just hope we’re not going into that Auburn series playing for it all.

It is certainly possible that we get there, but just to get to 14 we have to win 5 of the last 7 series. That is doable, but it is a pretty tall order. Would mean we would win 6 series on the year. Still, I think that this schedule doesn't look as hard as it could from here on out. Florida and Vandy are certainly beatable. Then USC, Auburn, and Missouri are all over the place.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

It is certainly possible that we get there, but just to get to 14 we have to win 5 of the last 7 series. That is doable, but it is a pretty tall order. Would mean we would win 6 series on the year. Still, I think that this schedule doesn't look as hard as it could from here on out. Florida and Vandy are certainly beatable. Then USC, Auburn, and Missouri are all over the place.

Vandy and Florida are beatable. But UK could very lose 2 outta 3 series against the three you mentioned. Outside of Arkansas and Tennessee, this is about as wild as the conference has been in a long time.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Vandy and Florida are beatable. But UK could very lose 2 outta 3 series against the three you mentioned. Outside of Arkansas and Tennessee, this is about as wild as the conference has been in a long time.

I think this weekend will go a long way in deciding who and what we are. We go on the road to a very hostile environment. How will we do? We get some of the harder teams at home, but the ones we need to win are on the road. Will the road games affect us, or will we take it in stride? Might tell us how Florida series could go, or the Auburn game.

 

[dtjr]

The next 2 weeks are the key to the rest of the season.

We win both SEC series, lose or beat Louisville and beat Bellarmine then we have a shot.

Lose both series, lose to Louisville and beat or barely beat Bellarmine then its nighty night.

 

[backinky2018]

Texas A&M was my wildcard on the breakdown I did another post. 2 outta 3 is desperately needed.

After three weeks of conference play my take on the rest of the season really hasn’t changed much. My thoughts.

A&M: on the road but still think UK wins the series. 2/1

Mizzou: I’ll admit. Mizzou is scrappy. But UK should be better. UK wins 2/1

Vandy: which Vandy team shows up is the question. But I give the edge to Vandy. 1/2

Florida: UF is a mess. What will they look like coming into this series is anyones guess. I think UK wins this one. 2/1

Tennessee: can we skip this one. I think UT sweeps. 0/3

South Carolina: This one is tricky. And it depends on where both programs are at this point. I’ll give the edge to Kentucky. 2/1

Auburn: See above with South Carolina. But I think Auburn is better than I thought at the beginning of the year. But I also think Kentucky will be playing for their postseason dreams. UK wins 2/1.

That gives UK a 14-16 in conference play. Now we all know baseball is a fickle sport and anything can happen. Let’s just hope we’re not going into that Auburn series playing for it all.

I think this is reasonable. To get the requisite number of wins for an NCAA berth, I think UK might need to pull off a sweep at some point. It's hard to get back to .500 flip flopping 2/1 series wins and losses.

But, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect series wins at USC and UF at this juncture. This weekend's series in College station is BIG.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I think this is reasonable. To get the requisite number of wins for an NCAA berth, I think UK might need to pull off a sweep at some point. It's hard to get back to .500 flip flopping 2/1 series wins and losses.

But, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect series wins at USC and UF at this juncture. This weekend's series in College station is BIG.

I think a sweep helps tremendously. But at the same time, Kentucky cannot afford to be swept at all. Even though I think UT is the best candidate for that. But winning 5 out 7 series will be a tall order.

The one thing about Florida that worries me is UK seems to play timid against them. Never really understood why. And it’s on the road so there’s that.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think a sweep helps tremendously. But at the same time, Kentucky cannot afford to be swept at all. Even though I think UT is the best candidate for that. But winning 5 out 7 series will be a tall order.

The one thing about Florida that worries me is UK seems to play timid against them. Never really understood why. And it’s on the road so there’s that.

We seem to win a series or get a sweep that we shouldn't and then we lose a series that we shouldn't. Last year the sweep of Auburn on the Plains was pretty unexpected at the time, but so was getting swept by South Carolina later in the year. Steal a win from USC and we might be in the tournament. Win both those games and we are almost assuredly in.

2019, the only series we won was against Ole Miss. That was unexpected.

2018 the loss in the Tennessee series was absolutely killer. UT didn't make the conference tournament that year. No excuse to lose that series and we did. Even still, just needed 1 game in the Vandy series and we got swept.

Even in 2017... we lost the Georgia series. UGA finished the year 11-19 and 25-32 overall. Win that series and win the Florida series and UK finishes 1st in the SEC and we host a regional and would have hosted the Super Regional, instead of UL hosting.

So, I wonder if that holds this season. Was the UGA series the one we maybe stole? Will we lose a series that we shouldn't, or will we break the mold?

 

[SeanCain]

Texas A&M was my wildcard on the breakdown I did another post. 2 outta 3 is desperately needed.

After three weeks of conference play my take on the rest of the season really hasn’t changed much. My thoughts.

A&M: on the road but still think UK wins the series. 2/1

Mizzou: I’ll admit. Mizzou is scrappy. But UK should be better. UK wins 2/1

Vandy: which Vandy team shows up is the question. But I give the edge to Vandy. 1/2

Florida: UF is a mess. What will they look like coming into this series is anyones guess. I think UK wins this one. 2/1

Tennessee: can we skip this one. I think UT sweeps. 0/3

South Carolina: This one is tricky. And it depends on where both programs are at this point. I’ll give the edge to Kentucky. 2/1

Auburn: See above with South Carolina. But I think Auburn is better than I thought at the beginning of the year. But I also think Kentucky will be playing for their postseason dreams. UK wins 2/1.

That gives UK a 14-16 in conference play. Now we all know baseball is a fickle sport and anything can happen. Let’s just hope we’re not going into that Auburn series playing for it all.

When I’m trying to guess games the one thing I look at, even if the team is not doing great, is who has the better players. For that reason alone I don’t think we beat Florida and A&M.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

We seem to win a series or get a sweep that we shouldn't and then we lose a series that we shouldn't. Last year the sweep of Auburn on the Plains was pretty unexpected at the time, but so was getting swept by South Carolina later in the year. Steal a win from USC and we might be in the tournament. Win both those games and we are almost assuredly in.

2019, the only series we won was against Ole Miss. That was unexpected.

2018 the loss in the Tennessee series was absolutely killer. UT didn't make the conference tournament that year. No excuse to lose that series and we did. Even still, just needed 1 game in the Vandy series and we got swept.

Even in 2017... we lost the Georgia series. UGA finished the year 11-19 and 25-32 overall. Win that series and win the Florida series and UK finishes 1st in the SEC and we host a regional and would have hosted the Super Regional, instead of UL hosting.

So, I wonder if that holds this season. Was the UGA series the one we maybe stole? Will we lose a series that we shouldn't, or will we break the mold?

I think you may be right about stealing the Georgia series. If that case holds true.

The one that would not surprise me to lose is that Mizzou series. Like you said, UK always seems to lose a series they shouldn’t and that’s got the perfect storm scenario written all over it. Now, I don’t think it’ll happen you just never know.