Aike’s Model - 02/09/25

[Aike]

Nice to stop the bleeding. Lots of work left.

1. Auburn 4.47
2. Tennessee 3.33
3. Duke 3.30
4. Houston 2.86
5. Arizona 2.78
6. Gonzaga 2.62
7. Iowa St 2.61
8. Florida 2.60
9. Purdue 2.37
10. Kansas 2.36
11. Texas Tech 2.313
12. Connecticut 2.307
13. Alabama 2.29
14. Michigan 2.17
15. Mississippi St 2.09
16. Maryland 2.07
17. Mississippi 2.02
18. Missouri 1.9495
19. Marquette 1.9458
20. St John’s 1.9457
21. Kentucky 1.93
22. UCLA 1.84
23. Michigan St 1.77
24. Clemson 1.74
25. Georgia 1.63
26. Arkansas 1.572
27. BYU 1.57
28. Ohio St 1.54
31. Vanderbilt 1.49
32. Louisville 1.45
36. Texas A&M 1.38
40. Oklahoma 1.33
42. Texas 1.30
49. N Carolina 1.09
62. Indiana 0.78
69. LSU 0.66
88. S Carolina 0.43

 

[Mash 2.4]

What are the factors propping up Gonzaga? Do they even have a good win? They feel like a bubble team to me.

 

[Aike]

What are the factors propping up Gonzaga? Do they even have a good win? They feel like a bubble team to me.

Shoot and rebound at a high level. Elite assist/to at 2.0. Best in the country.

 

[docholiday51]

Your numbers based model is interesting for a number of reasons
1. It quantifies the season thus far in terms of analytics
2.It also reveals possibly hidden value of teams like Maryland
Michigan and Purdue(just to name a few)
3.Lastly when considered vs season results thus far and head to
head match-ups it illustrates how much this season is unlike
those of recent history.

I think we are in the infancy of a new age of college basketball
The days of one to three super teams may be gone.

 

[runt#69]

Nice to stop the bleeding. Lots of work left.

1. Auburn 4.47
2. Tennessee 3.33
3. Duke 3.30
4. Houston 2.86
5. Arizona 2.78
6. Gonzaga 2.62
7. Iowa St 2.61
8. Florida 2.60
9. Purdue 2.37
10. Kansas 2.36
11. Texas Tech 2.313
12. Connecticut 2.307
13. Alabama 2.29
14. Michigan 2.17
15. Mississippi St 2.09
16. Maryland 2.07
17. Mississippi 2.02
18. Missouri 1.9495
19. Marquette 1.9458
20. St John’s 1.9457
21. Kentucky 1.93
22. UCLA 1.84
23. Michigan St 1.77
24. Clemson 1.74
25. Georgia 1.63
26. Arkansas 1.572
27. BYU 1.57
28. Ohio St 1.54
31. Vanderbilt 1.49
32. Louisville 1.45
36. Texas A&M 1.38
40. Oklahoma 1.33
42. Texas 1.30
49. N Carolina 1.09
62. Indiana 0.78
69. LSU 0.66
88. S Carolina 0.43

Thank you for the hard work and analyzing. It always gives me food for thought.

I look at this and think how it matches up with my gut feeling, eye test to what I've watched over the season, and compare. Like :

Why does Alabama seem like they are more vulnerable and beatable in my gut this year, and then I see little things and then this. It makes me think perhaps they aren't as great as the consistently high rankings make them appear.

And why do I think the Zags still look strong ?
well ... they are here. and there are reasons why I feel its pretty accurate.

Like Arizona. Man they are on fire ! so yeah. good job, very interesting !

Great job, as always Aike !

 

[Fancatstik]

So Aike do you bet on games based on these?

 

[Aike]

So Aike do you bet on games based on these?

I don’t gamble, but they are good for predicting point spreads. Tend to be much more accurate than Vegas around January, but everything tightens up by the end of the season.

 

[BBUK]

Your model............ Hurts my eyes...... Darn it. Don't mind model's most of the time...