A few ESPN UK/USC Predictions

[BlueRaider22]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/...e-picks-is-tennessee-ready-for-a-breakthrough


Edward
Aschoff

27-23

David
Ching

21-20

Sam
Khan Jr.

28-24

Greg
Ostendorf

34-27

Alex
Scarborough

27-21


Only one picks UK, however (since the point spread is 7) only 1 predicts the spread not to be covered. This is building to be a coin-flip, close game.

 

[Dakota25]

It should be a close game as our offense will score some points. However I don't think UK will win.

 

[BlueRaider22]

^I agree. USC is favored for a reason. But UK has a very, very, very good chance to win.

 

[crazyqx83]

I think everyone realizes that this game comes down to how towels plays and if we can stop the run.

Of course flukey things can happen like a couple of defensive touchdowns, a punt return or blocked kicks. But if the game plays out like 95% of sec games do (without a bunch of UK type meltdown scenarios) it boils down to if we can contain the run and if Patrick can play better than he has shown to be able to on the road to this point (Florida game last year notwithstanding).

They have zero chance of beating us with their passing game.

 

[JasonS.]

Vegas money vs. the infinite wisdom of ESPN. Mmm ....

 

[BlueRaider22]

The weather may very well be a factor......though, I'm not sure who exactly benefits more. It's always logical to assume that passing games take a hit with heavy rain......therefore placing more emphasis on running games. But, both defenses have shown vulnerability to run games......so, I'm not exactly sure who gets benefit (if any) from the weather.

 

[Rhavicc]

The weather may very well be a factor......though, I'm not sure who exactly benefits more. It's always logical to assume that passing games take a hit with heavy rain......therefore placing more emphasis on running games. But, both defenses have shown vulnerability to run games......so, I'm not exactly sure who gets benefit (if any) from the weather.

Tempted to say that Kentucky has the advantage in the rain because of UK having an overwhelming size advantage on the offensive line.
When games get sloppy, technique has a way of going out the window, and when technique goes out the window, size is the biggest advantage you can have.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

All of those score projections seem low to me. Neither of these teams exactly scream "We got a good D" despite what SC fans want to ramble about. Yeah, you held UNC to 13...or did UNC hold UNC to 13? Watching the game I feel it was much more of the latter.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Tempted to say that Kentucky has the advantage in the rain because of UK having an overwhelming size advantage on the offensive line.
When games get sloppy, technique has a way of going out the window, and when technique goes out the window, size is the biggest advantage you can have.

I don't really see an much of a size advantage either way. in a 4-3 the DE are not DT size because they have different responsibilities which require different technique and skills. You can't compare the size of 3-4 DL across the front to size of the DL in a 4-3 scheme because it is apples to oranges. One uses what amounts to 3 DT's and the other uses 2 DT's and the outside guys are guys who can play OLB in a 3-4 scheme. The reason so many teams are going to 3-4 schemes is it allows more flexibility, allows you to get more athletic and more guys on the field with the ability to cover against spread offenses. The 3-4 also gives you an advantage in you are able to hide who is coming after the qb. If you added up the weights, USC is actually bigger across the front than UK because they have 4 DL.

As for as the rain goes, if the ball can be kept somewhat dry I think it gives the offense an advantage, especially in the passing game because receivers know when they are going to cut and which way they are cutting and can adjust themselves to make that cut, while the cover guy has to react and make a sudden move where he is more likely to slip. I don't know how much playing will be done in heavy rain any longer, officials are sending teams inside when lightening is reported within 15 miles of the stadium and has to be lightening free for 30 minutes, I think that's right, to resume. That happened in Athens Saturday and the second caused game to be called with about 10 min left. No rain had fallen when play was stopped either time, but after the first a huge storm passed through, but no rain when it resumed and field looked and played dry. We had about a 70 minute delay for the rain.

 

[Smashcat]

It should be a close game as our offense will score some points. However I don't think UK will win.

I feel the same way but am hoping I am wrong and UK gets its first road win in a long time.

 

[BlueRaider22]

All of those score projections seem low to me. Neither of these teams exactly scream "We got a good D" despite what SC fans want to ramble about. Yeah, you held UNC to 13...or did UNC hold UNC to 13? Watching the game I feel it was much more of the latter.

Neither team has their offenses in position to score a lot either.....which is why the predictions are as they are.

 

[Deeeefense]

As for as the rain goes, if the ball can be kept somewhat dry I think it gives the offense an advantage, especially in the passing game because receivers know when they are going to cut and which way they are cutting and can adjust themselves to make that cut, while the cover guy has to react and make a sudden move where he is more likely to slip.

Correct - the effect of rain on football games has been researched especially by some of the Fantasy gurus and the bottom line is as you state there is a slight bias towards the offense. The only negatives from rain are if it is extremely hard and visibility is impeded which is rare. Also QBs with small hands sometimes have trouble gripping a wet ball.

The much bigger concern is wind. Wind speed of 15 MPH and higher really impedes a passing game especially if the wind is gusty or crossing the field.

 

[Smashcat]

Also QBs with small hands sometimes have trouble gripping a wet ball

Makes sense.

 

[EKCAT4YRS]

So,, will we be playing on turf or grass?

 

[West305]

Hope everyone coming down to Columbia for the game has a safe trip. The weather forecast for Saturday night has changed for the better. The weather service is now calling for only a 20% chance of scattered showers Saturday evening with partly clear skies. Temperature at kick-off will be a pleasant (for Columbia this time of year) 85 degrees. I'm looking forward to a good game and unlike some, I've always enjoyed my interactions with your fans when they come down. Again, have a safe trip and see you guys Saturday night.

 

[West305]

So,, will we be playing on turf or grass?

grass

 

[WhyNotBBN]

It should be a close game as our offense will score some points. However I don't think UK will win.

Thats the spirit....

 

[dorkmeister]

We win. I'm calling it now. 37-17

 

[Rhavicc]

I don't really see an much of a size advantage either way. in a 4-3 the DE are not DT size because they have different responsibilities which require different technique and skills. You can't compare the size of 3-4 DL across the front to size of the DL in a 4-3 scheme because it is apples to oranges. One uses what amounts to 3 DT's and the other uses 2 DT's and the outside guys are guys who can play OLB in a 3-4 scheme. The reason so many teams are going to 3-4 schemes is it allows more flexibility, allows you to get more athletic and more guys on the field with the ability to cover against spread offenses. The 3-4 also gives you an advantage in you are able to hide who is coming after the qb. If you added up the weights, USC is actually bigger across the front than UK because they have 4 DL.

Actually had a thread on this. I realize that in a 4-3, the DE's are not DT size, but they still make contact with offensive tackles on every play. I didn't actually compare the size of our d-line vs their d-line or anything like that. I compared our o-line to their d-line, and our d-line to their o-line. Our d-line is within 5 pounds of their o-line on average, and in a 3-4, that's still a big deal because majority of the time in a 3-4, the d-line is going to lock up with o-linemen, and play 2 gap technique (clinch on the linemen, read where the ball is going, make a move and hit a gap to get into the backfield). Our nose tackle (Melvin Lewis), is also 60 pounds heavier than South Carolina's center. Matt Elam, the backup, is 90 pounds heavier than their center. Considering the weight discrepancy there, and the fact that the nose tackle almost always plays the 2 gap technique, he's going to have to be double-teamed every time, and from time to time, the 2 offensive guards will have to double-team him while the center snaps and pulls, otherwise, he would get into the backfield too fast. That NT vs C match-up is the most intriguing one, because it's not one that USC had to really face much. In a basic 4-3 package, the center would either block a DT, or a linebacker (depending on whether or not USC is running with a fullback). It allowed him more opportunity to pull without plays being busted up quick. Now he's going to be lined up head-to-head on every play.
I would certainly give UK the advantage here.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Actually had a thread on this. I realize that in a 4-3, the DE's are not DT size, but they still make contact with offensive tackles on every play. I didn't actually compare the size of our d-line vs their d-line or anything like that. I compared our o-line to their d-line, and our d-line to their o-line. Our d-line is within 5 pounds of their o-line on average, and in a 3-4, that's still a big deal because majority of the time in a 3-4, the d-line is going to lock up with o-linemen, and play 2 gap technique (clinch on the linemen, read where the ball is going, make a move and hit a gap to get into the backfield). Our nose tackle (Melvin Lewis), is also 60 pounds heavier than South Carolina's center. Matt Elam, the backup, is 90 pounds heavier than their center. Considering the weight discrepancy there, and the fact that the nose tackle almost always plays the 2 gap technique, he's going to have to be double-teamed every time, and from time to time, the 2 offensive guards will have to double-team him while the center snaps and pulls, otherwise, he would get into the backfield too fast. That NT vs C match-up is the most intriguing one, because it's not one that USC had to really face much. In a basic 4-3 package, the center would either block a DT, or a linebacker (depending on whether or not USC is running with a fullback). It allowed him more opportunity to pull without plays being busted up quick. Now he's going to be lined up head-to-head on every play.
I would certainly give UK the advantage here.

You do realize NT is probably the weakest position on UK's defense don't you? Both of those guys are overweight and slow, Elam pops straight up on the snap. If the play isn't right over an A gap there is no reason to double either. I can promise you neither strike fear in OC's around the conference who have to be schemed for. The DE's are much better, a little inexperienced and over aggressive which made the read option so effective against them.

 

[WildCard]

^I agree. USC is favored for a reason. But UK has a very, very, very good chance to win.

UK presently an 8 point dawg. Historically, an 8 point dawg wins 32% of the time...hardly Powerball odds.

Peace

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Neither team has their offenses in position to score a lot either.....which is why the predictions are as they are.

We'll see about that. I just don't think either defense will stop the other team's offense. I may be wrong.

 

[BoulderCat]

I'm clearly on a different page. One which has us winning next week. Not this one though.

USC 52
UK 27

 

[Rhavicc]

I'm clearly on a different page. One which has us winning next week. Not this one though.

USC 52
UK 27

You seen something that suggests South Carolina is capable of scoring 52? Please show me, I haven't seen it yet.

You do realize NT is probably the weakest position on UK's defense don't you? Both of those guys are overweight and slow, Elam pops straight up on the snap. If the play isn't right over an A gap there is no reason to double either. I can promise you neither strike fear in OC's around the conference who have to be schemed for. The DE's are much better, a little inexperienced and over aggressive which made the read option so effective against them.

I guess everybody has an opinion, staff sees them a lot more than either of us, and they feel like Melvin Lewis is one of the better players on the defense. Also not sure what standard of "overweight" you're using. Technically, yes. Most linemen at every level are overweight technically. For a nose tackle though, 330 is not at all uncommon.
There also is a logical reason behind them standing up. In a 2 gap technique, you make contact with an o-lineman, make a read, and wait for the play to come to you or pick a gap and hit it. In a 1 gap technique, you would shoot off the LOS directly at a gap (the play determines the gap you go for).

 

[RoosterBooster1]

You seen something that suggests South Carolina is capable of scoring 52? Please show me, I haven't seen it yet.




I guess everybody has an opinion, staff sees them a lot more than either of us, and they feel like Melvin Lewis is one of the better players on the defense. Also not sure what standard of "overweight" you're using. Technically, yes. Most linemen at every level are overweight technically. For a nose tackle though, 330 is not at all uncommon.
There also is a logical reason behind them standing up. In a 2 gap technique, you make contact with an o-lineman, make a read, and wait for the play to come to you or pick a gap and hit it. In a 1 gap technique, you would shoot off the LOS directly at a gap (the play determines the gap you go for).

Anyone thinking the ULL DL or OL is better than SC's can have their opinion, that is all it is, an opinion. Myself, I just can't see it for many reasons. Maybe I will be proven wrong. Expect that SC will be a step up in talent in both areas to what KY saw against ULL, for many good reasons. Size comparisons and all have been taken into consideration, but SC has been playing against UF, UGA, etc successfully for a good while now, ULL could not do that.

 

[RoosterBooster1]

Anyone thinking the ULL DL or OL is better than SC's can have their opinion, that is all it is, an opinion. Myself, I just can't see it for many reasons. Maybe I will be proven wrong. Expect that SC will be a step up in talent in both areas to what KY saw against ULL, for many good reasons. Size comparisons and all have been taken into consideration, but SC has been playing against UF, UGA, etc successfully for a good while now, ULL could not do that.

SC has won road games recently at UF, at UGA, at Mizz, and under SOS have beaten the no.1 ranked team at home (Bama) along with many ranked opponents.

 

[crazyqx83]

I'm clearly on a different page. One which has us winning next week. Not this one though.

USC 52
UK 27

If USC scores 52 then fold the program. Our scout team qb will be a bigger challenge for us than their starting qb.

 

[RoosterBooster1]

If USC scores 52 then fold the program. Our scout team qb will be a bigger challenge for us than their starting qb.

Let's remember that thought, because Mitch may have been shaky in his first start ever, but he should grow into his role just fine, maybe it begins in his second start, maybe. Kid has a ton of upside, huge recruit. Comparing him to a KY scout team QB is a bit much.

 

[crazyqx83]

SC has won road games recently at UF, at UGA, at Mizz, and under SOS have beaten the no.1 ranked team at home (Bama) along with many ranked opponents.

5-7 years ago Kentucky won road games at UGA, at auburn, at Arkansas (when they were rally good) and beat a No. 1 team in LSU at home. A few years later we were struggling to 6 wins.

Guess what. This is exactly where you're about to be.

 

[RoosterBooster1]

5-7 years ago Kentucky won road games at UGA, at auburn, at Arkansas (when they were rally good) and beat a No. 1 team in LSU at home. A few years later we were struggling to 6 wins.

Guess what. This is exactly where you're about to be.

Perhaps. You should put some money on your team this week.

 

[Dakota25]

I'm clearly on a different page. One which has us winning next week. Not this one though.

USC 52
UK 27

I'm a pessimistic person and I don't even think it will be close to that bad. USC will not get out of the thirties and they will not win by 25. I know ULL is not as good and they made the thirties but this is sports and it happens all the time in football where a team's defense will allow less points against a superior offense as compared to the one they faced in the previous week.

 

[Chump Change X]

TOBC can't sleep at night thinking about out LB situation.

SC 49-31

 

[brianpoe]

Tempted to say that Kentucky has the advantage in the rain because of UK having an overwhelming size advantage on the offensive line.
When games get sloppy, technique has a way of going out the window, and when technique goes out the window, size is the biggest advantage you can have.

Agree with the second sentence, not at all with the first one.

Remember there are 2 sides and they will go against our defense who gave up 254 to a non-P5 team AND we will still be without two lbers.

PT had a hard time in perfect weather, this is one of those games we don't need any help from the rain, because we may be better in both facets if he bounces back.

Rain advantage: maybe a push at best?

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

You seen something that suggests South Carolina is capable of scoring 52? Please show me, I haven't seen it yet.




I guess everybody has an opinion, staff sees them a lot more than either of us, and they feel like Melvin Lewis is one of the better players on the defense. Also not sure what standard of "overweight" you're using. Technically, yes. Most linemen at every level are overweight technically. For a nose tackle though, 330 is not at all uncommon.
There also is a logical

Then that's all that matters. He looks overweight is the standard I am using, while I agree DL are all overweight for the most part, he just looks like he is too heavy, but I guess not. But there is never a reason for a NT to stand up and look for a play because he is going to be backpedling into his LBs. His job is to clog the middle and eat up 2 OL and keep the LBs clean or if he is playing 1 technique to hit a gap and try to disrupt, it is never to stand up and look for the ball.

No, I don't think USC is going to score 52 on UK, no where have I said anything like that. If they score that many on anyone it will be us, since we beat the crap out of SOS his heisman winning year and knocked them out of their first SEC championship he has hated UGA and its the only game he really wants to win. Bill Stanfield, our AA DT back in the day, said SOS was squealing like a cut pig all game.

When the Gator Bowl was being renovated and UGA and UF played a home and home for those 2 years, someone told him no opposing team had ever scored 50 in Sanford at the time. Ray Goff was our coach, UF was up 48-6, with less than 20 seconds left. SOS calls time out twice and threw it 40 yards to the endzone and they beat us 55--6. So he is not one of UGA's favorite rival coaches. Give the devil his due though, he changed the way the SEC played and was a huge part of it being at the top of college football. He forced everyone to change how we played the game and to get better.

 

[Levibooty]

Grumpyoldog is onto the real story I believe. I think our DL carry too much weight which slows them down also. I have been trying to alert UK fans our DL is in need of a talent infusion for some time. If anybody cares to check out what I'm talking about go look at the long TD run ULL made against us. We had a DT our fans like to talk highly of shoved backwards and nearly on his back which is exactly where the RB blew through our defense on his way to the goal line.