22-23 schedule (win probabilities)

[JonathanW]

I've put together MY ESTIMATES on win probabilities for the Cats in each game.

Factors I included, Oscar sitting the first couple games out; style like Bellermine; home/away/neutral (on average home team wins about 7% more than neutral court, so about 14% more than road team); rivalry game. I have us the underdog in 1 (semi-road game), and 50/50 in 2 road games. We play 7 games vs (current) top 11 teams, and 10 vs top 25 teams. So in 5 non-SEC games we have a 20%+ chance to lose.
Then if you sum up those win probabilities, you get expected # of wins, which assumes each game is independent of the rest. And of course this can't factor in future injuries (for us or our Opp).

Maybe this is conservative, but I come up with 11-2 Non-Conf, and 14-4 SEC, 25-6 overall (well more precisely 11.18-1.82, 13.75-4.25, 24.93-6.07).
The # after the SEC games are the road / home probability splits.

Prob.

Win Opp

98% Howard

98% Duquesne

80% Mich St

99% SC St

45% Gonzaga

99% N.Florida

97% Bellermine

75% Michigan

98% Yale

70% UCLA

99% Florida A&M

80% @ Missouri 80 / -

95% UL

95% LSU - / 95

65% @ Alab. 65 / -

95% USC - / 95

50% @ UT

95% UGA

95% TAMU - / 95

70% @ Vandy

65% Kansas

80% @ Ole Miss 80 / -

80% Florida

70% Ark

80% @ UGA 80 / 95

75% @ Miss St. 75 / -

70% UT 50 / 70

60% @ Florida 60 / 80

75% Auburn - / 75

90% Vandy 70 / 90

50% @ Ark 50 / 70

 

[BlueBomb]

So, if you're probabilities played out, the worst case scenario would be 28-3.

I think I'd be happy with with 26-5. Then win out in the postseason -- 35-5.

 

[DraftCat]

40-0

 

[Padsfs07]

It looks good. I think you are a little high on Michigan and UCLA. Michigan just due to the venue and UCLA has a solid team.

 

[JonathanW]

So, if you're probabilities played out, the worst case scenario would be 28-3.

I think I'd be happy with with 26-5. Then win out in the postseason -- 35-5.

28-3 would not be worst case. 25-6 is the expected. Just because a team is favored does not mean they win that game every time. There is natural variability, otherwise by end of season games would be easy to predict. If you have 70% probability to beat team X, that means if you played that team 10 times you would lose 3 of them, and this one game could be one of those 3. Like last year, we beat St. Peters, even with 2 injured guards, 9 times out of 10. But they found the 1 time.