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2022 Position Predictions

Comebakatz3

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Aug 8, 2008
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I think we have finalized our roster at this point. I believe we have no more likely roster additions. So this is how I think it looks:

CatcherAlonzo Rubalcaba (Sr)Kirk Liebert (Sr)Devin Burkes (rFr)
First BaseJacob Plastiak (Sr)Reuben Church (So)Mag Cotto (So)Tanner Kim (Fr)
Second BaseDaniel Harris (Sr)Chase Estep (Jr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Michael Dallas (Fr)Julian Searce (Fr)
Third BaseChase Estep (Jr)Reuben Church (So)Jacob Plastiak (Sr)Christian Howe (Fr)
ShortstopRyan Ritter (Jr)Daniel Harris (Sr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Lauden Brooks (Fr)Emilien Pitre (Fr)
Right FieldAdam Fogel (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
CenterfieldJohn Thrasher (Sr)
Left FieldHunter Jump (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
Designated HitterOraj Anu (Sr)Reuben Church (So)

I think this is how we break down defensively. I think UK has a bit of a problem in the OF with depth. I have marked the freshmen in red because I imagine that many of them will redshirt. I think we might see a few get some plate appearances, more if there are injuries, but it is hard for me to pick which ones might be used in backup/PH roles. We have 13 or 14 (if you include Cotto) position players that have been on a college roster before. I expect those 13 or 14 to take the majority of the plate appearances, but, if history serves as some proof, a freshman or two could be added for spot work and might get 20-30 at bats. I think Howe could possibly be one of these, as he can play both IF and OF, and he seems to have a big bat.

FridayCole Stupp (Jr)
SaturdayTyler Bosma (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Sean Harney (Sr)Ryan Hagenow (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)
SundayZack Lee (Jr)Darren Williams (rSr)Tyler Bosma (Sr)
MidweekRyan Hagenow (So)Wyatt Hudepohl (So)Darren Williams (rSr)
CloserSean Harney (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Mag Cotto (So)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)
BullpenDaniel Harper (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Austin Strickland (So)Mag Cotto (So)Alex Degen (Sr)
Seth Logue (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)Evan Byers (rFr)
Tyler Burchett (rJr)
FreshmenColby FriedaReed Gannon (LHP)Mason MooreJackson Nove (LHP)Travis Smith
Christian Howe

Pitching staff is much more difficult to predict, IMO.

I put Bosma in at Saturday because I am just wildly guessing that UK might like to mix up the weekend by having a lefty sandwiched between a couple of righties. However, I think Williams could get that spot, and I think that Bosma/Williams could also take the spot from Lee depending on how everyone does in the fall. I think, most likely, those three are battling for 2 spots. Everyone else is on the outside looking in. Whichever person loses this battle likely moves to the bullpen as a long reliever. Right now I just have that penciled in as Williams. Nothing against him, but I just have a hard time moving a weekend starter off of that role when they already have it and, as mentioned, I am giving the lefty the nod for the RLR weekend. Still, the staff has a tendency to surprise when it comes to some weekend selections, and they aren't above shaking things up. I have almost all the guys listed at Saturday, because I think that is where the real competition is. Again, I think Lee could lose his spot, but if he does it is likely to either Bosma/Williams and he isn't likely to lose it to say Hagenow or Harney.

I think there are a lot of options for the midweek, but no clear winners other than maybe Hagenow. I personally don't like this strategy as much, but it seems like the staff does this. I prefer freshmen in the midweek spot... those that you know will step into a weekend role next year. I'd rather see those sophomores pitching on the weekend, but want in one hand.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Harney start again, but I think they really liked him as a closer and I think he's the clear favorite for that. However, he was very good as a starter for UK, so I think they at least have to give him a real shot at starting on the weekend again. If that happens it could shake up the closer role. Guilfoil, I believe, was a closer for Lipscomb (or at least at one point was) and so, he could fill in that role. Rigsby had a weird year last year, so he could bounce back and be a competitor in that spot. Not sure what they will do with Cotto, but I slated him as a possible closer given his 98mph heat.

I think we see a ton of Harper again out of the bullpen and I think Degen is a long reliever. I think, if Guilfoil doesn't close, then you'll see him play a similar role to Cole Daniels a few years ago... basically as UK's shutdown man. Doesn't really pitch a ton of innings, but he often comes in to shut the door in high stress situations. I could see Cotto basically being the 2022 version of Holt Jones. Hard thrower that comes in and just eats up a ton of innings. Similarly, could happen with whoever doesn't start on the weekend. An interesting aspect is that UK will have just 2 bullpen lefties (if Bosma starts and until Hazelwood is better), Cotto and Byers. This being the case, it could possible change some roles, but I feel like this staff is less likely to play matchups and more likely to play with the confidence they have in certain arms.

I think all freshmen are likely to redshirt. You might see someone like Howe, who could play both ways, get some innings since he could already be playing in the field at random times, but none of the newcomers necessarily jump out at me as being someone who I can assuredly say will play a significant role. Travis Smith is injured and likely won't play at all in 2022.

Also just want to note that Mason Hazelwood is so far down on my starter list because he will only be coming back from injury in something like early March, so I doubt he works his way back to a starter role and is likely out of the pen.
 
This should be a full list of all players:

Alonzo Rubalcaba (Sr)
Kirk Liebert (Sr)
Devin Burkes (rFr)
Jacob Plastiak (Sr)
Daniel Harris (Sr)
Chase Estep (Jr)
Ryan Ritter (Jr)
Adam Fogel (Sr)
John Thrasher (Sr)
Hunter Jump (Sr)
Oraj Anu (Sr)
Tanner Kim (Fr)
Michael Dallas (Fr)
Christian Howe (Fr)
Lauden Brooks (Fr)
Nolan McCarthy (rFr)
Julian Searce (Fr)
James McCoy
Emilien Pitre (Fr)
Reuben Church (So)
Cole Stupp (Jr)
Tyler Bosma (Sr)
Zack Lee (Jr)
Darren Williams (rSr)
Ryan Hagenow (So)
Wyatt Hudepohl (So)
Austin Strickland (So)
Mag Cotto (So)
Sean Harney (Sr)
Daniel Harper (Sr)
Seth Logue (So)
Tyler Burchett (rJr)
Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)
Alex Degen (Sr)
Evan Byers (rFr)
Hunter Rigsby (Sr)
Colby Frieda
Reed Gannon
Mason Moore
Jackson Nove
Travis Smith

I believe this is everyone. Don't hold me to it. If it is... I believe it is 41 players. So, with that being said, that means that UK (I think) has to cut 6 to get it to 35. So, one would think that they redshirt 6. Travis Smith would obviously be one. So, 5 others would need to redshirt or get cut. I doubt UK goes under the 35, so that would mean that half of the freshmen would redshirt and they might play the other 6 in some sort of capacity. I imagine their roles would be limited, unless one just jumps off the page.
 
I think we have finalized our roster at this point. I believe we have no more likely roster additions. So this is how I think it looks:

CatcherAlonzo Rubalcaba (Sr)Kirk Liebert (Sr)Devin Burkes (rFr)
First BaseJacob Plastiak (Sr)Reuben Church (So)Mag Cotto (So)Tanner Kim (Fr)
Second BaseDaniel Harris (Sr)Chase Estep (Jr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Michael Dallas (Fr)Julian Searce (Fr)
Third BaseChase Estep (Jr)Reuben Church (So)Jacob Plastiak (Sr)Christian Howe (Fr)
ShortstopRyan Ritter (Jr)Daniel Harris (Sr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Lauden Brooks (Fr)Emilien Pitre (Fr)
Right FieldAdam Fogel (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
CenterfieldJohn Thrasher (Sr)
Left FieldHunter Jump (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
Designated HitterOraj Anu (Sr)Reuben Church (So)

I think this is how we break down defensively. I think UK has a bit of a problem in the OF with depth. I have marked the freshmen in red because I imagine that many of them will redshirt. I think we might see a few get some plate appearances, more if there are injuries, but it is hard for me to pick which ones might be used in backup/PH roles. We have 13 or 14 (if you include Cotto) position players that have been on a college roster before. I expect those 13 or 14 to take the majority of the plate appearances, but, if history serves as some proof, a freshman or two could be added for spot work and might get 20-30 at bats. I think Howe could possibly be one of these, as he can play both IF and OF, and he seems to have a big bat.

FridayCole Stupp (Jr)
SaturdayTyler Bosma (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Sean Harney (Sr)Ryan Hagenow (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)
SundayZack Lee (Jr)Darren Williams (rSr)Tyler Bosma (Sr)
MidweekRyan Hagenow (So)Wyatt Hudepohl (So)Darren Williams (rSr)
CloserSean Harney (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Mag Cotto (So)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)
BullpenDaniel Harper (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Austin Strickland (So)Mag Cotto (So)Alex Degen (Sr)
Seth Logue (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)Evan Byers (rFr)
Tyler Burchett (rJr)
FreshmenColby FriedaReed Gannon (LHP)Mason MooreJackson Nove (LHP)Travis Smith
Christian Howe

Pitching staff is much more difficult to predict, IMO.

I put Bosma in at Saturday because I am just wildly guessing that UK might like to mix up the weekend by having a lefty sandwiched between a couple of righties. However, I think Williams could get that spot, and I think that Bosma/Williams could also take the spot from Lee depending on how everyone does in the fall. I think, most likely, those three are battling for 2 spots. Everyone else is on the outside looking in. Whichever person loses this battle likely moves to the bullpen as a long reliever. Right now I just have that penciled in as Williams. Nothing against him, but I just have a hard time moving a weekend starter off of that role when they already have it and, as mentioned, I am giving the lefty the nod for the RLR weekend. Still, the staff has a tendency to surprise when it comes to some weekend selections, and they aren't above shaking things up. I have almost all the guys listed at Saturday, because I think that is where the real competition is. Again, I think Lee could lose his spot, but if he does it is likely to either Bosma/Williams and he isn't likely to lose it to say Hagenow or Harney.

I think there are a lot of options for the midweek, but no clear winners other than maybe Hagenow. I personally don't like this strategy as much, but it seems like the staff does this. I prefer freshmen in the midweek spot... those that you know will step into a weekend role next year. I'd rather see those sophomores pitching on the weekend, but want in one hand.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Harney start again, but I think they really liked him as a closer and I think he's the clear favorite for that. However, he was very good as a starter for UK, so I think they at least have to give him a real shot at starting on the weekend again. If that happens it could shake up the closer role. Guilfoil, I believe, was a closer for Lipscomb (or at least at one point was) and so, he could fill in that role. Rigsby had a weird year last year, so he could bounce back and be a competitor in that spot. Not sure what they will do with Cotto, but I slated him as a possible closer given his 98mph heat.

I think we see a ton of Harper again out of the bullpen and I think Degen is a long reliever. I think, if Guilfoil doesn't close, then you'll see him play a similar role to Cole Daniels a few years ago... basically as UK's shutdown man. Doesn't really pitch a ton of innings, but he often comes in to shut the door in high stress situations. I could see Cotto basically being the 2022 version of Holt Jones. Hard thrower that comes in and just eats up a ton of innings. Similarly, could happen with whoever doesn't start on the weekend. An interesting aspect is that UK will have just 2 bullpen lefties (if Bosma starts and until Hazelwood is better), Cotto and Byers. This being the case, it could possible change some roles, but I feel like this staff is less likely to play matchups and more likely to play with the confidence they have in certain arms.

I think all freshmen are likely to redshirt. You might see someone like Howe, who could play both ways, get some innings since he could already be playing in the field at random times, but none of the newcomers necessarily jump out at me as being someone who I can assuredly say will play a significant role. Travis Smith is injured and likely won't play at all in 2022.

Also just want to note that Mason Hazelwood is so far down on my starter list because he will only be coming back from injury in something like early March, so I doubt he works his way back to a starter role and is likely out of the pen.
This is a really solid take. The only two things I could say about it are: do you think Stupp has Friday night locked up with as much competition there is on the pitching staff is this year? And- do you think any of these pitchers can play Outfield? :):) let's hope those three stay healthy and can hit, huh? Otherwise what infielder could go out and play in the Outfield I wonder?
 
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This is a really solid take. The only two things I could say about it are: do you think Stupp has Friday night locked up with as much competition there is on the pitching staff is this year? And- do you think any of these pictures can play Outfield? :):) let's hope those three stay healthy and can hit, huh? Otherwise what infielder could go out and play in the Outfield I wonder?

Good questions! I think that no one did well enough to be 100 percent confident that they have their position locked down. I think Lee and Stupp have a leg up on the competition, but that can certainly be overcome.

Hahaha I think McCarthy is listed as a utility player. So I imagine that he's one that would be on the list to go into the OF if needed. Liebert is also listed as a C/OF, so he's a body. Still, I imagine they ride with that 3 as much as possible. Worst case, they move Anu out there and DH someone hitting well.
 
Good questions! I think that no one did well enough to be 100 percent confident that they have their position locked down. I think Lee and Stupp have a leg up on the competition, but that can certainly be overcome.

Hahaha I think McCarthy is listed as a utility player. So I imagine that he's one that would be on the list to go into the OF if needed. Liebert is also listed as a C/OF, so he's a body. Still, I imagine they ride with that 3 as much as possible. Worst case, they move Anu out there and DH someone hitting well.
Yep, seems like one of the extra INF could be an extra OF if worst came to worst. I feel like things definitely went from "oh no we suck again" to "Hmm.. this could get interesting if everything lines up right".
 
I think we have finalized our roster at this point. I believe we have no more likely roster additions. So this is how I think it looks:

CatcherAlonzo Rubalcaba (Sr)Kirk Liebert (Sr)Devin Burkes (rFr)
First BaseJacob Plastiak (Sr)Reuben Church (So)Mag Cotto (So)Tanner Kim (Fr)
Second BaseDaniel Harris (Sr)Chase Estep (Jr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Michael Dallas (Fr)Julian Searce (Fr)
Third BaseChase Estep (Jr)Reuben Church (So)Jacob Plastiak (Sr)Christian Howe (Fr)
ShortstopRyan Ritter (Jr)Daniel Harris (Sr)Nolan McCarthy (rFr)Lauden Brooks (Fr)Emilien Pitre (Fr)
Right FieldAdam Fogel (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
CenterfieldJohn Thrasher (Sr)
Left FieldHunter Jump (Sr)Oraj Anu (Sr)James McCoy (Fr)Christian Howe (Fr)
Designated HitterOraj Anu (Sr)Reuben Church (So)

I think this is how we break down defensively. I think UK has a bit of a problem in the OF with depth. I have marked the freshmen in red because I imagine that many of them will redshirt. I think we might see a few get some plate appearances, more if there are injuries, but it is hard for me to pick which ones might be used in backup/PH roles. We have 13 or 14 (if you include Cotto) position players that have been on a college roster before. I expect those 13 or 14 to take the majority of the plate appearances, but, if history serves as some proof, a freshman or two could be added for spot work and might get 20-30 at bats. I think Howe could possibly be one of these, as he can play both IF and OF, and he seems to have a big bat.

FridayCole Stupp (Jr)
SaturdayTyler Bosma (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Sean Harney (Sr)Ryan Hagenow (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)
SundayZack Lee (Jr)Darren Williams (rSr)Tyler Bosma (Sr)
MidweekRyan Hagenow (So)Wyatt Hudepohl (So)Darren Williams (rSr)
CloserSean Harney (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Mag Cotto (So)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)
BullpenDaniel Harper (Sr)Tyler Guilfoil (Sr)Austin Strickland (So)Mag Cotto (So)Alex Degen (Sr)
Seth Logue (So)Mason Hazelwood (Sr)Darren Williams (rSr)Hunter Rigsby (Sr)Evan Byers (rFr)
Tyler Burchett (rJr)
FreshmenColby FriedaReed Gannon (LHP)Mason MooreJackson Nove (LHP)Travis Smith
Christian Howe

Pitching staff is much more difficult to predict, IMO.

I put Bosma in at Saturday because I am just wildly guessing that UK might like to mix up the weekend by having a lefty sandwiched between a couple of righties. However, I think Williams could get that spot, and I think that Bosma/Williams could also take the spot from Lee depending on how everyone does in the fall. I think, most likely, those three are battling for 2 spots. Everyone else is on the outside looking in. Whichever person loses this battle likely moves to the bullpen as a long reliever. Right now I just have that penciled in as Williams. Nothing against him, but I just have a hard time moving a weekend starter off of that role when they already have it and, as mentioned, I am giving the lefty the nod for the RLR weekend. Still, the staff has a tendency to surprise when it comes to some weekend selections, and they aren't above shaking things up. I have almost all the guys listed at Saturday, because I think that is where the real competition is. Again, I think Lee could lose his spot, but if he does it is likely to either Bosma/Williams and he isn't likely to lose it to say Hagenow or Harney.

I think there are a lot of options for the midweek, but no clear winners other than maybe Hagenow. I personally don't like this strategy as much, but it seems like the staff does this. I prefer freshmen in the midweek spot... those that you know will step into a weekend role next year. I'd rather see those sophomores pitching on the weekend, but want in one hand.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Harney start again, but I think they really liked him as a closer and I think he's the clear favorite for that. However, he was very good as a starter for UK, so I think they at least have to give him a real shot at starting on the weekend again. If that happens it could shake up the closer role. Guilfoil, I believe, was a closer for Lipscomb (or at least at one point was) and so, he could fill in that role. Rigsby had a weird year last year, so he could bounce back and be a competitor in that spot. Not sure what they will do with Cotto, but I slated him as a possible closer given his 98mph heat.

I think we see a ton of Harper again out of the bullpen and I think Degen is a long reliever. I think, if Guilfoil doesn't close, then you'll see him play a similar role to Cole Daniels a few years ago... basically as UK's shutdown man. Doesn't really pitch a ton of innings, but he often comes in to shut the door in high stress situations. I could see Cotto basically being the 2022 version of Holt Jones. Hard thrower that comes in and just eats up a ton of innings. Similarly, could happen with whoever doesn't start on the weekend. An interesting aspect is that UK will have just 2 bullpen lefties (if Bosma starts and until Hazelwood is better), Cotto and Byers. This being the case, it could possible change some roles, but I feel like this staff is less likely to play matchups and more likely to play with the confidence they have in certain arms.

I think all freshmen are likely to redshirt. You might see someone like Howe, who could play both ways, get some innings since he could already be playing in the field at random times, but none of the newcomers necessarily jump out at me as being someone who I can assuredly say will play a significant role. Travis Smith is injured and likely won't play at all in 2022.

Also just want to note that Mason Hazelwood is so far down on my starter list because he will only be coming back from injury in something like early March, so I doubt he works his way back to a starter role and is likely out of the pen.
You do a great job with your analysis. This is a really good post.
 
Yep, seems like one of the extra INF could be an extra OF if worst came to worst. I feel like things definitely went from "oh no we suck again" to "Hmm.. this could get interesting if everything lines up right".
You might be right. They are looking much better than what I figured. Mingione did good with the portal.
 
I would really like to be optimistic but having transfer players going from the OVC, MAC and other lesser conferences still scares me.
I keep hearing that perspective, and I understand it, but my question is, what would you prefer to bet on? Someone who couldn't cut it against SEC opponents at another school, or someone who had a bunch of success in a lesser conference? Mag Cotto had an 8.80 ERA at SC last year. Do you feel better about him because he came from an SEC school or Bosma/Williams who had success in lesser conferences? Would rather take a hitter that didn't hit at Alabama, or one of these 3 outfielders who were "player of the year" caliber players in their respective lesser conferences? Baseball is baseball and people who have proven they can play are always going to win that side of things for me. Will Bosma/Williams do as well here as they did in their conferences? Maybe not, but will they have an 8 ERA like Cotto last year? I dont think so either. One thing to also consider is that these pitchers will have A LOT better fielders behind them than they did at Miami(OH) and EKU. Having a SS like Ritter behind them might shave some runs off of their ERA compared to what was playing behind them last year. I'm not sure about EKU, but I know MiamiOH had a catcher and infielder playing outfield last year. Bosma gave up no HRs and more doubles than you'd expect for someone that didn't give up a single HR. Is that cause he was getting beat up, or because the OFs didn't have SEC range, or took bad routes and turned singles into doubles? There are a lot of factors that go into a pitchers efficiency when they change levels of play.

Hitters are similar. If you can hit, you can hit. You may not hit the same as you hit going from OVC to SEC, but you usually don't go from .350 to .150 either.

Like I said in an earlier post, I really think we did as well as could be hoped in the situation we were in. Never know until they hit the field though! I'm excited to see what the fall looks like!
 
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I keep hearing that perspective, and I understand it, but my question is, what would you prefer to bet on? Someone who couldn't cut it against SEC opponents at another school, or someone who had a bunch of success in a lesser conference? Mag Cotto had an 8.80 ERA at SC last year. Do you feel better about him because he came from an SEC school or Bosma/Williams who had success in lesser conferences? Would rather take a hitter that didn't hit at Alabama, or one of these 3 outfielders who were "player of the year" caliber players in their respective lesser conferences? Baseball is baseball and people who have proven they can play are always going to win that side of things for me. Will Bosma/Williams do as well here as they did in their conferences? Maybe not, but will they have an 8 ERA like Cotto last year? I dont think so either. One thing to also consider is that these pitchers will have A LOT better fielders behind them than they did at Miami(OH) and EKU. Having a SS like Ritter behind them might shave some runs off of their ERA compared to what was playing behind them last year. I'm not sure about EKU, but I know MiamiOH had a catcher and infielder playing outfield last year. Bosma gave up no HRs and more doubles than you'd expect for someone that didn't give up a single HR. Is that cause he was getting beat up, or because the OFs didn't have SEC range, or took bad routes and turned singles into doubles? There are a lot of factors that go into a pitchers efficiency when they change levels of play.

Hitters are similar. If you can hit, you can hit. You may not hit the same as you hit going from OVC to SEC, but you usually don't go from .350 to .150 either.

Like I said in an earlier post, I really think we did as well as could be hoped in the situation we were in. Never know until they hit the field though! I'm excited to see what the fall looks like!

I think Cotto is actually a pretty good example of why people are concerned with transfers, even those from OVC who have done well.

Cotto had an ERA of 8.31. That is high and not ideal. However, he pitched just 8.2 innings a year ago as a true freshman. He gave up 8 earned runs in those 8.2 innings. 5 of those 8 runs came in league play in just 0.2 innings, in just 1 game. So, if we take out SEC play and his 1 appearance, against eventual National Champion Mississippi State, he had a 3.38 ERA for the season. Much more respectable, and would be good for 3rd lowest on the UK roster in 2021. This is a small sample size, so you can really just entirely throw it out, but it somewhat shows how big of a step up there is between some OOC play and conference play.

That being said, I think the pitchers can adjust a bit easier, but they could still take some lumps. Harney was a solid pitcher out of UMass with an ERA of

Other examples... Chase Estep and Ryan Ritter.

Estep hit .252 overall and Ritter hit .275 overall. Estep’s is average, but you can live with it. Ritter’s is pretty darn solid. However, in league play they hit .211 and .231 respectively. So, against lesser opponents Ritter hit an exceptional .338 and Estep hit .333. The first two numbers (.252 & .275) you can live with or be happy with, but .211 and .231 through about 100 at bats are not ideal, especially not .211. Again, these are examples of how hitting becomes harder when the competition increases. Both of them hitting 100 points higher against what was typically lesser competition and lesser talent than what they faced on the weekend. This happens regularly… in 2019 Collett hit .259 overall, but just .214 in league play. Shelby was similar that year hitting .273 overall and just .215 in league play. So, I don’t think it is unreasonable to worry that these hitters that have only faced SEC levels of pitching a handful of times (if ever) throughout their careers might struggle to adjust.
 
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I think Cotto is actually a pretty good example of why people are concerned with transfers, even those from OVC who have done well.

Cotto had an ERA of 8.31. That is high and not ideal. However, he pitched just 8.2 innings a year ago as a true freshman. He gave up 8 earned runs in those 8.2 innings. 5 of those 8 runs came in league play in just 0.2 innings, in just 1 game. So, if we take out SEC play and his 1 appearance, against eventual National Champion Mississippi State, he had a 3.38 ERA for the season. Much more respectable, and would be good for 3rd lowest on the UK roster in 2021. This is a small sample size, so you can really just entirely throw it out, but it somewhat shows how big of a step up there is between some OOC play and conference play.

That being said, I think the pitchers can adjust a bit easier, but they could still take some lumps. Harney was a solid pitcher out of UMass with an ERA of

Other examples... Chase Estep and Ryan Ritter.

Estep hit .252 overall and Ritter hit .275 overall. Estep’s is average, but you can live with it. Ritter’s is pretty darn solid. However, in league play they hit .211 and .231 respectively. So, against lesser opponents Ritter hit an exceptional .338 and Estep hit .333. The first two numbers (.252 & .275) you can live with or be happy with, but .211 and .231 through about 100 at bats are not ideal, especially not .211. Again, these are examples of how hitting becomes harder when the competition increases. Both of them hitting 100 points higher against what was typically lesser competition and lesser talent than what they faced on the weekend. This happens regularly… in 2019 Collett hit .259 overall, but just .214 in league play. Shelby was similar that year hitting .273 overall and just .215 in league play. So, I don’t think it is unreasonable to worry that these hitters that have only faced SEC levels of pitching a handful of times (if ever) throughout their careers might struggle to adjust.
Yep, I agree with most of what you are saying. Thrasher hit .369 last year. I wouldn't expect him to hit .369 in the SEC, but a guy that is a high caliber outfielder who hits, say .269 or better on the year? I'm ok bringing a guy like that in. Jump hit .289 last year at AZ State. I dont feel like there is that drastic of a difference in the pitching he will see this year. The Estep and Ritter examples are good examples, but they were also really young. These guys coming in have had a ton more college at bats, both during season and in the summer against all levels of competition. I'm not jumping for joy, but I'm a lot happier than I was before these guys transfered in.

On a side note - sounds like Ritter is really hitting this summer!
 
Yep, I agree with most of what you are saying. Thrasher hit .369 last year. I wouldn't expect him to hit .369 in the SEC, but a guy that is a high caliber outfielder who hits, say .269 or better on the year? I'm ok bringing a guy like that in. Jump hit .289 last year at AZ State. I dont feel like there is that drastic of a difference in the pitching he will see this year. The Estep and Ritter examples are good examples, but they were also really young. These guys coming in have had a ton more college at bats, both during season and in the summer against all levels of competition. I'm not jumping for joy, but I'm a lot happier than I was before these guys transfered in.

On a side note - sounds like Ritter is really hitting this summer!
Just found these stats from Bosma's short summer in the Northwoods league after his freshman year.

http://northwoods.bbstats.pointstreak.com/player.html?playerid=1371956&seasonid=31974

There are plenty of SEC guys playing in Northwoods. Small sample size, but seems like he can throw against that level of hitter. One thing that jumps out at me is Brady Allen from SC faced him in 2 games and went 1-9.
 
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My question is this- is that roster as it stands capable of a .500 SEC record? Because that seems to be necessary for a post season bid.
No clue. I don't think anyone can know for sure. I'd say if everything goes right, yes, absolutely. If not, then it could be a mess. But, it looks like we have a full roster of what seem to be capable guys. It definitely didn't feel like that just a few weeks ago, so I'm in a much better place than I was then about my feelings about our chances. I'd be surprised if we aren't better this year than last year.
 
No clue. I don't think anyone can know for sure. I'd say if everything goes right, yes, absolutely. If not, then it could be a mess. But, it looks like we have a full roster of what seem to be capable guys. It definitely didn't feel like that just a few weeks ago, so I'm in a much better place than I was then about my feelings about our chances. I'd be surprised if we aren't better this year than last year.
Well the elephant in the room is Ming had a stacked roster the year after his run to the super regional and did nothing with it.
 
Awesome stuff. Wouldn’t be shocked if one of those young middle infielders were pushed to CF to help depth there.

If three of the four transfers can more than hold their own, I think the lineup could be okay.

Like the pitching depth, however need guys to step up and be on par with other SEC Friday/Saturday starters. Only two returners had sub 1.5 whip in SEC play and one was Hazelwood who is a question mark depending on how he recovers. Like what Stupp showed, hopefully him and others can take the next step.
 
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Well the elephant in the room is Ming had a stacked roster the year after his run to the super regional and did nothing with it.
Everyone is focusing on the players coming in….that’s not the problem. The problem is the leadership. It’s been a problem since Mingione took over. What has he really accomplished? We have all been to the games, we see what decisions he has made. Do you think that will change just because it’s different players?
 
Everyone is focusing on the players coming in….that’s not the problem. The problem is the leadership. It’s been a problem since Mingione took over. What has he really accomplished? We have all been to the games, we see what decisions he has made. Do you think that will change just because it’s different players?
That’s the problem. Ming’s coaching.
 
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Well the elephant in the room is Ming had a stacked roster the year after his run to the super regional and did nothing with it.

And The weekend starters plus the closer we’re lost for extended periods during the end of that season. Look at how they started when the staff was healthy.

Not happy with the state of the program today but the pitching staff that season had horrible luck. And they still should have made the NCAA’s - they were hosed IMO.

The staff was healthy at that point so who knows what could have happened if they had gotten in - and they deserved it IMO.
 
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I would really like to be optimistic but having transfer players going from the OVC, MAC and other lesser conferences still scares me.
I’m right there with you. If these kids can’t adjust to the competition quickly we are going to be a mess next year.
 
My question is this- is that roster as it stands capable of a .500 SEC record? Because that seems to be necessary for a post season bid.
I think it will depend on how well the portal kids can adjust to SEC level competition. If they do we might be decent. If they don’t or can’t, we are not good.
 
I think Ritter sees the ball pretty well, but this past year he often had a big swing. If he will consistently shorten that swing then I think he can hit for a really high average like has has in the Cape.
How’s the competition there versus SEC?
 
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