2017-2018 minute/Stats projections

[JonathanW]

Assuming we are now done (although I'd like to add Cam Johnson). Here are my projected stats for next year. I think Cal will primarily go with 7 guys, although 3 others will get some PT. SGA will play some to give Green a breather at PG. SKJ will play some as the backup C (although we will play 3 F's some too), and Baker will get a few minutes (inconsistently, 10 one game & 1 the next).
As for the 4 forwards in the 7 man rotation, I expect they will all get some starts, going w/ the hot hand, and will be pretty interchangeable.

Player - Min - Pts/Reb/
Richards - 24 - 10/7
Gabriel - 24 - 10/7
Knox - 24 - 10/6
Diallo - 28 - 12/4
Green - 30 - 10/2 (& 5 Ast)

Washington - 23 - 10/7
Vanderbilt - 22 - 10/6
SGA - 10 - 3/1
SKJ - 8 - 3/2
Baker - 5 - 2/1
Wynyard & walkons total - 2 - 1/1

 

[caneintally]

SGA will play wayyyyyy more then you are giving him credit for. He is Green's equal in terms of running a team and his superior in most other ways. Vandebilt and Diallo will lead this team in minutes and if you know Cal you know why- they will be the 2 best defenders and IMO ALL SEC type defenders. Knox and PJ will be 3rd and 4th in minutes IMO and Green , Richards and SGA all will play a ton as well. I do agree Baker will have games where he plays 20 minutes and others where he plays 5 . His shooting will have him on the floor though as he is just bananas at that. I won't go thru the whole team but Diallo will average 15 and KNox , PJ , and JV all will average 11-14 range. I think SGA actually averages more points then Green but Green will have way more assists. If we can get 18 and 16 from Richards/SKJ and Tai we are a final 4 team.

 

[jrpross]

Richards - 23 - 8/8
Washington - 26 - 11/9
Knox - 25 - 15/7
Diallo - 27 - 14/6
Green - 27 - 9/2 (5-6 Ast)

Vanderbilt - 22 - 10/7
Gabriel - 17 - 8/6
SKJ - 16 - 7/5
SGA - 11 - 3/1
Baker - 4 - 2/1
Wynyard - 3 - 1/1

 

[ib4ky]

Too Soon??

 

[StubbornPenny]

Minutes
Green/SGA 25/15
Diallo/Baker 35/5
Knox/Baker 35/5
Vanderbilt/Washington 25/15
Richards/SKJ/Washington 30/5/5

Green 12pt / 5 ast / 37% 3
Diallo 16 pts / 4 reb / 33% 3
Knox 17 pts / 6 reb / 35% 3
Vandy 11 pts / 7 reb
Richards 6 pts / 9 reb / 2 blk
SGA 8 pts / 3 ast / 35% 3
Baker 7 pts / 2 reb / 39% 3
Washington 7 pts / 7 reb
SKJ 4 pts / 4 reb / 1 blk

 

[bucsrule8872]

G Green(34)/Diallo(3)/Vanderbilt(3)
G Diallo(29)/Knox(11)
F Knox(16)/Vanderbilt(14)/Washington(10)
F Vanderbilt(9)/Gabriel(19)/Washington(12)
F Richards(19)/Killeya-Jones(19)/Gabriel(2)

Green- 34
Diallo- 32
Knox- 27
Vanderbilt- 26
Washington- 22
Gabriel- 21
Richards- 19
Killeya-Jones- 19

8-man rotation (by tourney time). All 5-stars. Cal likes his elite talent and puts it on the floor.

 

[HoptownCat93]

G Green(34)/Diallo(3)/Vanderbilt(3)
G Diallo(29)/Knox(11)
F Knox(16)/Vanderbilt(14)/Washington(10)
F Vanderbilt(9)/Gabriel(19)/Washington(12)
F Richards(19)/Killeya-Jones(19)/Gabriel(2)

Green- 34
Diallo- 32
Knox- 27
Vanderbilt- 26
Washington- 22
Gabriel- 21
Richards- 19
Killeya-Jones- 19

8-man rotation (by tourney time). All 5-stars. Cal likes his elite talent and puts it on the floor.

Where are Baker and SGA...our only 2 guards off the bench?

 

[BlueBomb]

Assuming we are now done (although I'd like to add Cam Johnson). Here are my projected stats for next year. I think Cal will primarily go with 7 guys, although 3 others will get some PT. SGA will play some to give Green a breather at PG. SKJ will play some as the backup C (although we will play 3 F's some too), and Baker will get a few minutes (inconsistently, 10 one game & 1 the next).
As for the 4 forwards in the 7 man rotation, I expect they will all get some starts, going w/ the hot hand, and will be pretty interchangeable.

Player - Min - Pts/Reb/
Richards - 24 - 10/7
Gabriel - 24 - 10/7
Knox - 24 - 10/6
Diallo - 28 - 12/4
Green - 30 - 10/2 (& 5 Ast)

Washington - 23 - 10/7
Vanderbilt - 22 - 10/6
SGA - 10 - 3/1
SKJ - 8 - 3/2
Baker - 5 - 2/1
Wynyard & walkons total - 2 - 1/1

Five players averaging exactly 10 points per game....now that's efficiency.

 

[JonathanW]

Minutes
Green/SGA 25/15
Diallo/Baker 35/5
Knox/Baker 35/5
Vanderbilt/Washington 25/15
Richards/SKJ/Washington 30/5/5

Green 12pt / 5 ast / 37% 3
Diallo 16 pts / 4 reb / 33% 3
Knox 17 pts / 6 reb / 35% 3
Vandy 11 pts / 7 reb
Richards 6 pts / 9 reb / 2 blk
SGA 8 pts / 3 ast / 35% 3
Baker 7 pts / 2 reb / 39% 3
Washington 7 pts / 7 reb
SKJ 4 pts / 4 reb / 1 blk

Damn, you don't think Gabriel can even get mop-up minutes!
And 88 ppg his high, given that only one of Cal's teams has averaged 80+ (84.9 last year).

You also have too many minutes for the "starters".
How many non-guards have average > 30mpg for Cal at UK? Only 8, the most were Patterson 33.0 & Davis 32.0.
How many players have averaged 35+ minutes? Just 3 (Ulis 36.8, Knight 35.9, Murray 35.2), all 3 played on teams that were not deep. Five (5) of Cal's 8 teams leading minute guy averages <33 minutes.
How many of Cal's "center's averaged 30 minutes? Just 2 (Davis 32, & Adebayo 30.2).

 

[WildMoon]

G Green(34)/Diallo(3)/Vanderbilt(3)
G Diallo(29)/Knox(11)
F Knox(16)/Vanderbilt(14)/Washington(10)
F Vanderbilt(9)/Gabriel(19)/Washington(12)
F Richards(19)/Killeya-Jones(19)/Gabriel(2)

Green- 34
Diallo- 32
Knox- 27
Vanderbilt- 26
Washington- 22
Gabriel- 21
Richards- 19
Killeya-Jones- 19

8-man rotation (by tourney time). All 5-stars. Cal likes his elite talent and puts it on the floor.

I think i agree with this, maybe Green gets less minutes.

 

[WildMoon]

I am truly lost in terms of who will play where and how much. Next season is as confused as i ever been in terms of starting rotation.

like last year only position that was questionable was a 4. We know Fox, Monk, Briscoe, and Bam was starting.

I think Diallo is lock to start. I would think Vanderbilt will be one of our best player, so i see him playing. Also for Knox. but i can't imagine so easily for WG, SKJ, Washington to not start either...

 

[StubbornPenny]

Damn, you don't think Gabriel can even get mop-up minutes!
And 88 ppg his high, given that only one of Cal's teams has averaged 80+ (84.9 last year).

You also have too many minutes for the "starters".
How many non-guards have average > 30mpg for Cal at UK? Only 8, the most were Patterson 33.0 & Davis 32.0.
How many players have averaged 35+ minutes? Just 3 (Ulis 36.8, Knight 35.9, Murray 35.2), all 3 played on teams that were not deep. Five (5) of Cal's 8 teams leading minute guy averages <33 minutes.
How many of Cal's "center's averaged 30 minutes? Just 2 (Davis 32, & Adebayo 30.2).

haha wow, I totally forgot about Gabriel.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Where are Baker and SGA...our only 2 guards off the bench?

I think Diallo coming back takes SGA's minutes. Diallo gets 30+ and Green gets 30+. Vanderbilt and Knox fill in when they are out. Not much room for SGA. Baker isn't going to play much this year, IMHO.

I could be wrong (it happens often), but I think Cal has eight 5-star players and they are getting the minutes. That is how Cal rolls.

 

[EclipsingYou]

Green - 26 min
Diallo - 30 min
Knox - 28 min
Vanderbilt - 28 min
Richards - 24 min
Bench
SGA - 16 min
Jemarl - 4 min
Washington -16 min
Gabriel - 16 min
SKJ - 12 min
Tai - blowouts

Basically a 8 man rotation. The hot hand between Washington, Gabriel, and SKJ will get more minutes than the other 2.

Jemarl may not average a lot of min, but if he comes in and is on fire, he will take minutes from Green, SGA, Diallo, and Knox on occasion.

Of the 9 I have getting 12+ mpg, I expect 1 of those to fall out and lose their minutes to the remaining 8. Gun to my head? I'd be inclined to go with Washington and see his minutes end up going to Gabriel and SKJ.

So, by March, I think we will see something similar to Green, Diallo, Knox, Vanderbilt, and Richards with SKJ, SGA, and Gabriel filling out the rotation. That appears to be the best lineup to me. Otherwise, I could see a case for swapping Washington with SKJ. I'm just making a guess.

It could just as easily be SKJ as Washington to take the hit, but I expect big things from SKJ and am not sure how PJ will adapt to the speed of the college game yet. Not a knock. Just a guess.

I don't see Cal using more than 8 players and expect them all to get 15 mpg or more by season's end with 3 of the players only appearing in spot situations and blow out time.

Scoring wise, I see all 3 if Diallo, Knox, and Vanderbilt in double figures with Green and Richards not far behind. I see UK as more of a score by committee than relying on someone like Monk, Murray, or Goodwin to lead us in scoring.

It wouldn't shock me if all of Green, Diallo, Knox, Vanderbilt, and Richards all average between 8ppg & 14 ppg with having a different high scorer in most games. Similar to our title team in that way.

I don't see Jemarl and Tai as ready to contribute yet, so that leaves 9 players that Cal will trim to either 7 or 8. I think it'll be 8 because that gives us SGA to backup the guards, Gabriel the wings, and SKJ or Washington the bigs. I guess a 7 man rotation without SKJ or Washington could also work, but doubt we go with a 7 man rotation when it counts.

My big question is what will happen to the last 2 scholarships. Hopefully Cal uses them to bring in some multi year players instead of giving them to walkons.

Give me a Gerald Fitch and Erik Daniels type to fill the last 2 spots. Players that will help down the road, but won't expect immediate PT.

All in my completely worthless opinion as always.

 

[bucsrule8872]

With such a young team, we have no idea what to expect. Aside from Gabriel, we have not seen any of these guys play significant minutes in college.

All we can really do is look at their rankings and guess from there. That is what I did. I like to look at RSCI rankings, but they haven't come out yet, so I used 247 composite rankings. I then looked at the top 8, since they are all 5-stars and Cal usually likes to play a 7-8 man rotation.

1. Diallo- 9
2. Knox- 10
3. Vanderbilt- 11
4. Gabriel- 14('16)
5. Washington- 14
6. Richards- 17
7. Green- 24
8. Killeya-Jones- 25('16)
9. Gilgeous-Alexander- 29
10. Baker- 70
11. Wynyard- 91('15)

Also, looking at Cal's track record with his PGs, I am led to believe that his main PG is going to get 30+ minutes per game. He also always plays top 10 guys big time minutes. So Green, Diallo, and Knox are going to get most of the minutes at the 1-3 spots.

Also, you have five top 15 guys who play the 2-4 spots. its going to be hard to give them all minutes.

Given those observations, I think Gilgeous-Alexander is the odd man out. If he plays a lot, it eats into the minutes of Green (Cal's general on the floor) and Diallo (our best player), and really everyone else in the rotation.

So, I expect Gigeous-Alexander to get some play early in the season, but eventually to fall out of the rotation in favor of giving more minutes to those higher ranked top 25 5-star guys.

That is assuming the rankings are legit. Gilgeous-Alexander might beat out Green. They are close in rankings. I think it's Green, because he is a pure PG and ranked slightly higher according to most rankings.

Just thought I would share why I said an 8-man rotation and why I said these eight would be the rotation players.

 

[EclipsingYou]

Bucsrule8872,

Very interesting opinion! While most will call you a crazy person due to how SGA is as good or better than Green as some fans seem to think.

I think I like your 8 better than mine, now. Dangitt!

Green, Diallo, Knox, JV, Richards, Gabriel, SKJ, and Washington. Takes care of any foul trouble our bigs encounter.

When Green needs a break, Diallo, Knox, and JV can combine to make one hell of a PG if needed, IMO.

So, SGA gets dropped when we go from 9 to 8. It'll have to be one of SGA, Gabriel, Washington, and SKJ. Decisions, decisions...

By the time Cal will have to decide, I'm sure it'll be clear to all of us fans who the person should be. Guessing before the first game makes it way more difficult than the choice Cal will have between the 4 of WG, SGA, SKJ, and PJ after getting to watch them in practice and for a good 15-20 games and then decide which 8 will be best equipped to lead us to titleland, USA.

 

[HoptownCat93]

This whole "Cal is gonna put a 6'8+ forward at guard" is not going to happen. Every year we fantasize about how we've heard Towns, Davis, Bam, and others can play on the perimeter and shoot. They may do that stuff in high school, but college is a large adjustment. SGA is a 5 STAR POINT GUARD and Cal is not going to play a forward out of position when we actually have guards on the bench who are talented enough.

I mean think about it, if Diallo is running point and Knox is running the 2..how would we score?

 

[Catzman]

This whole "Cal is gonna put a 6'8+ forward at guard" is not going to happen. Every year we fantasize about how we've heard Towns, Davis, Bam, and others can play on the perimeter and shoot. They may do that stuff in high school, but college is a large adjustment. SGA is a 5 STAR POINT GUARD and Cal is not going to play a forward out of position when we actually have guards on the bench who are talented enough.

I mean think about it, if Diallo is running point and Knox is running the 2..how would we score?

By attacking the piss out of the opponents basket.

 

[HoldMyBeer]

This whole "Cal is gonna put a 6'8+ forward at guard" is not going to happen. Every year we fantasize about how we've heard Towns, Davis, Bam, and others can play on the perimeter and shoot. They may do that stuff in high school, but college is a large adjustment. SGA is a 5 STAR POINT GUARD and Cal is not going to play a forward out of position when we actually have guards on the bench who are talented enough.

I mean think about it, if Diallo is running point and Knox is running the 2..how would we score?

I see you emphatically yelling that "SGA is a 5 STAR POINT GUARD"... Where are you getting that ranking from? Espn, 247, Rivals, etc all have him as a 4 star.

Just wondering did you actually do research, or did you just pull that info out of your azz to better your argument?

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2017/shai-alexander-10291

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/217347/shai-gilgeous-alexander

http://247sports.com/Player/Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-87637

 

[delk4three]

247 ranked SGA #19 in their final rankings for 2017. Do some research!

I see you emphatically yelling that "SGA is a 5 STAR POINT GUARD"... Where are you getting that ranking from? Espn, 247, Rivals, etc all have him as a 4 star.

Just wondering did you actually do research, or did you just pull that info out of your azz to better your argument?

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2017/shai-alexander-10291

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/217347/shai-gilgeous-alexander

http://247sports.com/Player/Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander-87637[/QUOTE

 

[HoldMyBeer]

247 ranked SGA #19 in their final rankings for 2017. Do some research!

Post the composite link... I gave you the current listing on their site. Also show me espn, and rivals giving him a 5 star ranking too.

 

[delk4three]

Post the link... I gave you the current listing on their site. Also show me espn, and rivals giving him a 5 star ranking too.

Did I say anything about ESPN or Rivals? I said 247. If you are as smart as you pretend to be, click over on 247 player rankings for 2017. There will be the composite list and the 247 list right next to it. Click on the 247 list and you will clearly see he is listed #19 on the final rankings list .

 

[HoldMyBeer]

Did I say anything about ESPN or Rivals? I said 247. If you are as smart as you pretend to be, click over on 247 player rankings for 2017. There will be the composite list and the 247 list right next to it. Click on the 247 list and you will clearly see he is listed #19 on the final rankings list .

Theres a reason that the composite list is the first to pop up on the page. One is industry standard, "most comprehensive, and most unbiased" the other is basically one mans opinion (Jerry Meyer). The team rankings are based off of the composite (this is from Jerry Meyer).

 

[wromanp7]

I think;
- Baker and Wynyard play very spot minutes (averaging like 1-2 per game)
- SKJ and SGA play about 10-12 minutes per game.
- Green and Diallo get the most minutes at between 27-30.
- All of Knox, Washington, Gabriel, Vanderbilt, and Richards average between 22-25 minutes.

Diallo and Knox each score around 13-15 points.
Washington, Gabriel, Vanderbilt, and Richards average between 8-11 points.
Everyone else is 3 or less.

Reading all the posts about lineups, minutes, and point predictions, my dark horse (against board predictions) is SGA. Most have him playing very little and some not at all, but I think he is the most likely to surprise.

I consider PJ underrated by the board as well.
If there's one that I see getting hyped that I'd have to second guess it would be SKJ. I hope he really is doing work this summer and will be ready (mostly mentally), but it wouldn't surprise me to see SGA get more minutes than SKJ.

One thing for sure is we will see some crazy ass lineups and it will be fun to watch it all play out.

 

[Catzman]

I could just be on drugs compared to everyone else, but I feel like I'm the only one NOT sleeping on SKJ. I know he underperformed last year, that doesn't mean that an unproven freshman like Richards is guaranteed to get 25-30 minutes and leaving SKJ with 10. Who's to say Richards doesn't come in and struggle too? Until I hear reports that SKJ is still lost and that Richards is the next Chris Bosh, I'm going to pencil SKJ as the starter with Nick getting a ton of minutes off the bench.

SKJ 23mpg/8ppg/6rpg
Washington 22/10/8
Knox 25/13/4
Diallo 27/12/4
Green 21/7/5apg

Vanderbilt 19/8/5/3
Gabriel 18/8/5
Richards 17/6/5
SGA 15/5/3/2
Baker/Tai remaining 13 minutes and collective 3ppg.


If my math is correct that's about 80 ppg. I see SKJ and Richards being 2nd thoughts on offense, getting the occasional garbage basket with a set play here and now for a dunk or pick and pop (SKJ). I think if we get 15-16ppg and 10-11rpg and a handful of blocks between those 2, I'll be very happy.

The 2,3 and 4 position will get most of the options to score and Washington, Vanderbilt, Knox, Gabriel and Diallo will see the most of those minutes and will all have very similar numbers in minutes. Some will score better (Knox and Diallo) while others rebound (PJ). Green, while very talented and hard working, will not be the superstar PG at this age we're used to, so he and SGA will rotate the point guard duties. We will probably even see some Diallo at point to develop his guard duties which will be Cal getting him ready for the NBA. I see Diallo and Knox being our 2 best scorers on a consistent basis with guys like Washington, Vanderbilt, SKJ, etc having nights where they explode as well.

I love Gabriel's energy, but with us being so forward heavy, I don't see him shining on this team. If it weren't for having both Washington AND Vanderbilt, I could easily see him being a 12/8 guy, but as it is I think they'll get between 18 and 22mpg depending on who's earning it in practice, or who's in foul trouble, etc. Washington, from everything we've heard is supposed to be a monster on the glass. However, if he comes in and is a tad behind, I'd like to see Gabriel get the nod and start (same to how I think SKJ should get the nod over Richards in the beginning). But, whereas Richards is more of a raw project, Washington is said to be the real deal so until then, I have him as my primary rebounding/scoring 4. Knox the primary 3 with Vanderbilt spelling both of them at those positions.

 

[EclipsingYou]

Knox will play the 2 on PLENTY of occasions. He chose UK due to Calipari telling him he will play the same role as Monk did on last year's team. Which was a guard.

Most expect this team to run 3 guard sets with Green, Diallo, and Knox along with 2 bigs out of Richards, Washington, SKJ, and Vanderbilt. While utilizing SGA, Gabriel, & 2 of those 4 bigs off the bench.

I think Vanderbilt is a safe bet to start at the 4. At the 5, I could see either Richards, Washington, or SKJ getting the nod.

By season's end, 1 of these 9 will probably lose their spot in the rotation as Cal has commented several times before that he prefers a 7-8 man rotation at year's end.

Which 1 of the 9? That's a hard one to guess. I've seen SGA, SKJ, Washington, Richards, and Gabriel all mentioned. I guess I'm the Washington camp for now, but have yet to even see them play together like the rest of you.

I just hope that Cal gets to pick his 8 out of the 9 and isn't forced to go with a specific 8 due to an injury.

Plus, there's still 2 open scholarships. Lord knows that Cal has pulled off miracles befer and I expect him to fill at least 1 of those 2. I hope he fills both with players that are hard workers, but not expecting immediate PT. Loved the experience Willis and Hawkins brought to the table last year. Hope he finds 2 more player's like them to fill all 13 scholarships this year instead of wasting them on walk ons.

 

[JonathanW]

With such a young team, we have no idea what to expect. Aside from Gabriel, we have not seen any of these guys play significant minutes in college.

All we can really do is look at their rankings and guess from there. That is what I did. I like to look at RSCI rankings, but they haven't come out yet, so I used 247 composite rankings. I then looked at the top 8, since they are all 5-stars and Cal usually likes to play a 7-8 man rotation.

1. Diallo- 9
2. Knox- 10
3. Vanderbilt- 11
4. Gabriel- 14('16)
5. Washington- 14
6. Richards- 17
7. Green- 24
8. Killeya-Jones- 25('16)
9. Gilgeous-Alexander- 29
10. Baker- 70
11. Wynyard- 91('15)

Also, looking at Cal's track record with his PGs, I am led to believe that his main PG is going to get 30+ minutes per game. He also always plays top 10 guys big time minutes. So Green, Diallo, and Knox are going to get most of the minutes at the 1-3 spots.

Also, you have five top 15 guys who play the 2-4 spots. its going to be hard to give them all minutes.

Given those observations, I think Gilgeous-Alexander is the odd man out. If he plays a lot, it eats into the minutes of Green (Cal's general on the floor) and Diallo (our best player), and really everyone else in the rotation.

So, I expect Gigeous-Alexander to get some play early in the season, but eventually to fall out of the rotation in favor of giving more minutes to those higher ranked top 25 5-star guys.

That is assuming the rankings are legit. Gilgeous-Alexander might beat out Green. They are close in rankings. I think it's Green, because he is a pure PG and ranked slightly higher according to most rankings.

Just thought I would share why I said an 8-man rotation and why I said these eight would be the rotation players.

I like that you put some analysis into it. The one thing I think you are not considering is that Cal (& most coaches) value the PG position. And someone has to lead the offense, and I can't see Green doing it more than say 33mpg. Diallo is NOT a PG. So it has to be SGA when Green is on the bench.

 

[HoptownCat93]

Post the composite link... I gave you the current listing on their site. Also show me espn, and rivals giving him a 5 star ranking too.

Don't have to post the link because you already posted the link for us that had him as a 5 star. Thanks! The composite had him as the #2 combo guard and the #29 player overall in the class...I'd say that's a pretty darn good backup option.

Also, I'll scream this too...QUADE GREEN IS #24 in the composite and SGA IS #29...BIGGG DIFFERENCE LOL

I also watched the Derby Classic as well, and I would wager that SGA is a way better backup PG option than a forward. How many 6'8 guys has Cal let run the point? These cool mixtapes and all-star games may make those forwards look cool and flashy...but none of these guys are Ben Simmons or Giannis...

 

[HoldMyBeer]

Don't have to post the link because you already posted the link for us that had him as a 5 star. Thanks! The composite had him as the #2 combo guard and the #29 player overall in the class...I'd say that's a pretty darn good backup option.

Also, I'll scream this too...QUADE GREEN IS #24 in the composite and SGA IS #29...BIGGG DIFFERENCE LOL

I also watched the Derby Classic as well, and I would wager that SGA is a way better backup PG option than a forward. How many 6'8 guys has Cal let run the point? These cool mixtapes and all-star games may make those forwards look cool and flashy...but none of these guys are Ben Simmons or Giannis...

I didn't realize you were blind, 247 composite has him at 4 stars. Yes that's good, but that's not a five star. Also yes 24v29 is a BIGGG DIFFERENCE. Would you rather be the #1 player or the number #6? Secondly unlike you I posted multiple sources for my argument, you posted zero. You watched the derby classic.. Cool, the derby classic is like the 3 star version of the MCAAG.

Next, your question "how many 6'8 guys has Cal let run point?" Well my response is how many 6,8" guys has he had whom had the ability to? One... Vanderbilt (if needed in emergency).

SGA is gonna be a good player, he's not a five star, wont and start more games (if any) than Green. And I'm open to taking wagers on that if you want to put your money where your mouth is.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Look at past teams and you will see a pattern: one PG plays around 35 mpg (give or take a couple of minutes) and is backed up by the 2 or 3 who slides over for 5-6 mpg.

2010- Wall backed up by Bledsoe.
2011- Knight backed up by Lamb.
2012- Teague backed up by Lamb.
2013- Harrow backed up by Goodwin.
2014- Harrison backed up by Harrison.
2015*- Harrison backed up by Ulis.
2016- Ulis backed up by Briscoe.
2017- Fox backed up by Briscoe.

Other than in 2015, we have not had a dedicated backup PG and Cal has said that platoons won't happen again. That is the anomaly. Every other year, it's been another starter sliding over to run the point for a short amount of time.

Maybe Gilgeous-Alexander is better and wins the job. Could happen, but I doubt it. Green is a pure PG and the guy most of these recruits want to play with as their PG.

Regardless of who starts, I just don't see Cal splitting time at the PG between two guys. It's just not what he likes to do. He wants his starter at PG on the floor as much as possible.

This year may be different, but I doubt it will be.

 

[EclipsingYou]

HoldMyBeer,

I'm sorry, but you are wrong in this occasion. 247 ranks SGA as #19 Overall & the #1 combo guard.

You are mistaking their composite rankings with the 247 rankings. The composite rankings are taken by averaging the services together. 247 makes its own rankings like the rest as well as publishing these composite rankings that average all the services together.

247 ranks SGA a 5* #19 Overall. Plain as day.
ESPN has him at #31 as a 4*.
Rivals is #33 and a 4*.
Scout is #40 overall as a 4*.

The 247 COMPOSITE rankings have him as #29 overall and a 4* AFTER AVERAGING ALL 4 OF THOSE SERVICES.

SGA IS A 5* IN 247'S CLASS RANKINGS.
When you factor in the other services, his composite (average) ranking is a 4*. You are reading the composite rankings where he is a 4* instead of reading 247's class rankings where SGA is a 5*.

That's the confusion here. SGA IS ranked as a 5* by 247, but not by any other service.

 

[bucsrule8872]

The composite rankings are a much better indicator, IMHO.

247 is basically the opinion of one man (Meyer), the composite is a collection of opinions from various services. It's based on the opinions of several scouts.

If you think Meyer is smarter than everyone else, then by all means go with 247, but most of us like to look at the composite rankings. It's usually a more accurate picture.

 

[EclipsingYou]

bucsrule,

I agree that most probably put more credit into the composite rankings.

To me they are equal. I think 247 & Rivals do a much better job than ESPN and especially Scout, these days.

Most is personal preference, but if I had to rank the services, I'd probably go Rivals, 247, Composite, ESPN, RSCI, Scout these days.

All in my completely worthless opinion as always.

 

[JonathanW]

Look at past teams and you will see a pattern: one PG plays around 35 mpg (give or take a couple of minutes) and is backed up by the 2 or 3 who slides over for 5-6 mpg.

2010- Wall backed up by Bledsoe.
2011- Knight backed up by Lamb.
2012- Teague backed up by Lamb.
2013- Harrow backed up by Goodwin.
2014- Harrison backed up by Harrison.
2015*- Harrison backed up by Ulis.
2016- Ulis backed up by Briscoe.
2017- Fox backed up by Briscoe.

Other than in 2015, we have not had a dedicated backup PG and Cal has said that platoons won't happen again. That is the anomaly. Every other year, it's been another starter sliding over to run the point for a short amount of time.

Maybe Gilgeous-Alexander is better and wins the job. Could happen, but I doubt it. Green is a pure PG and the guy most of these recruits want to play with as their PG.

Regardless of who starts, I just don't see Cal splitting time at the PG between two guys. It's just not what he likes to do. He wants his starter at PG on the floor as much as possible.

This year may be different, but I doubt it will be.

2010 Bledsoe was a combo-guard that started 2G for us
2011 There wasn't another PG (than Knight) on the entire roster
2012 There wasn't another PG (than Knight) on the entire roster
2013 No you are wrong, Goodwin did not play PG for us AT ALL. Knight was backed up by the walk-on Polson who played almost 14mpg.
2014 No you are wrong, Andrew was not backed up by Aaron, he was backed up by Hawkins (7.1mpg) & Polson (7.0mpg).
2015 Correct, Andrew backed up by Ulis off the bench.
2016 Briscoe was the top rated PG coming out of HS
2017 See above.

So in 8 seasons, we have had:
- 3 seasons where we started 2 PGs, and so naturally the backup PG slid over when the starting PG went to the bench
- 2 seasons where we only had 1 PG (the starter) on the roster, thus there wasn't a PG on the bench, so the starting 2G would slide over
- 3 seasons where the backup PG came from the bench.

Besides having your information wrong for 2013 & 2014, and misleading in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016 & 2017, you also overstated the minutes played by the starting PGs by a little.
Wall 34.8 (rounds to 35, so ok)
Knight 35.9 (ok)
Teague 32.6 (not 35)
Harrow 27.1 (not 35, but different circumstances)
Andrew 31.7 (not 35)
Andrew 25.5 (but different circumstances)
Ulis 36.8 (ok)
Fox 29.6 (not 35)

So only 3 times (out of 8) has he had a PG average > 33mpg. So a better estimate is 30-33mpg. Oh, and 4 of those PGs received All-American votes, I don't see Green getting any of those as a FR.

 

[JonathanW]

I didn't realize you were blind, 247 composite has him at 4 stars. Yes that's good, but that's not a five star. Also yes 24v29 is a BIGGG DIFFERENCE. Would you rather be the #1 player or the number #6? Secondly unlike you I posted multiple sources for my argument, you posted zero. You watched the derby classic.. Cool, the derby classic is like the 3 star version of the MCAAG.

Next, your question "how many 6'8 guys has Cal let run point?" Well my response is how many 6,8" guys has he had whom had the ability to? One... Vanderbilt (if needed in emergency).

SGA is gonna be a good player, he's not a five star, wont and start more games (if any) than Green. And I'm open to taking wagers on that if you want to put your money where your mouth is.

How can you be so condescending and wrong at the same time?
24 vs 29 is NOT a big difference, nor is 1 vs 6, but 1 vs 6 is a bigger difference than 24 vs 29, just like 24 vs 29 is a bigger difference than 100 vs 105. If you rank all D1 FR (say 1 to 1000) their ability (like most things in life) would follow a Normal (bell-shaped) distribution. The closer you get to the middle, the less of a difference you see between 2 players only 5 spots apart. So 1 vs 6 is the biggest difference that you would see between 2 players 5 spots apart. How many times has the #6 players been as good or better than the #1 player, quite a few. You seem to like 247 so lets look at the past few 1 vs 6 comparisons:
2016 1=Josh Jackson, 6=Fox (damn close IMO)
2015 1=Simmons, 6=Trier (ok Simmons, but 2 was Skal & there are a bunch of guys I would take ahead of him)
2014 1=Mudiay, 6=Okafor (I'd take Okafor, but difficult to compare since Mudiay didn't play)
2013 1=Wiggins, 6=Parker (pretty close)
2012 1=Noel, 6=Ledo (ok, difference on this one)
2011 1=Davis, 6=Teague (big difference)
247 doesn't go back to 2010 so I went to Scout for these 2
2010 1=Barnes, 6=Knight (close, but I would take Knight)
2009 1=Favors, 6=Henry (but they had Favors ahead of Wall & Cousins)

Saying how many stars a player has is FAR overrated. There are lots of 5* guys that are trash, and a decent number of 4* (or lower) guys who play like 5*'s in college.
Part of that could be the problem of trying to put into buckets (1-5) players. Maybe the worst 5 is (if you could break it down to that level) a 4.996, and the best 4 is a 4.994. There is a cutoff point, and the players on either side of that cutoff point are likely very close if not damn near identical.

 

[HoldMyBeer]

How can you be so condescending and wrong at the same time?
24 vs 29 is NOT a big difference, nor is 1 vs 6, but 1 vs 6 is a bigger difference than 24 vs 29, just like 24 vs 29 is a bigger difference than 100 vs 105. If you rank all D1 FR (say 1 to 1000) their ability (like most things in life) would follow a Normal (bell-shaped) distribution. The closer you get to the middle, the less of a difference you see between 2 players only 5 spots apart. So 1 vs 6 is the biggest difference that you would see between 2 players 5 spots apart. How many times has the #6 players been as good or better than the #1 player, quite a few. You seem to like 247 so lets look at the past few 1 vs 6 comparisons:
2016 1=Josh Jackson, 6=Fox (damn close IMO)
2015 1=Simmons, 6=Trier (ok Simmons, but 2 was Skal & there are a bunch of guys I would take ahead of him)
2014 1=Mudiay, 6=Okafor (I'd take Okafor, but difficult to compare since Mudiay didn't play)
2013 1=Wiggins, 6=Parker (pretty close)
2012 1=Noel, 6=Ledo (ok, difference on this one)
2011 1=Davis, 6=Teague (big difference)
247 doesn't go back to 2010 so I went to Scout for these 2
2010 1=Barnes, 6=Knight (close, but I would take Knight)
2009 1=Favors, 6=Henry (but they had Favors ahead of Wall & Cousins)

Saying how many stars a player has is FAR overrated. There are lots of 5* guys that are trash, and a decent number of 4* (or lower) guys who play like 5*'s in college.
Part of that could be the problem of trying to put into buckets (1-5) players. Maybe the worst 5 is (if you could break it down to that level) a 4.996, and the best 4 is a 4.994. There is a cutoff point, and the players on either side of that cutoff point are likely very close if not damn near identical.

ACTUALLY, 247 DOES go past 2010 (How can YOU be so WRONG?). I'll finish for you.

2010 - #1 Barnes #6 Tobias Harris (Ill take Barnes)
2009 - #1 Favors #6 Xavier Henry (Favors contract is 11million per.. wheres Henry?)
2008 - # 1 Jennings #6 Scotty Hopson (I'll take Jennings)
2007 - #1 Eric Gordon #6 Kyle singler (lol)
2006 - # 1 Olden #6 Budinger (Olden went on to be #1 pick in draft then injuries)
2005 - # 1 Gerald Green #6 Bynum (you win this one)
2004 - #1 Dwight Howard #6 Telfair (LOL)
2003 - # 1 Lebron #6 Kendrick Perkins (**nope, no big difference here**)

I don't care about the decimal value difference between the players cause it's meaningless FOR EXAMPLE;

In 2003, Lebron James was given a value of 1.000 while Kendrick Perkins was given a .9980. Is LBJ only .0020 better than Kendrick Freaking Perkins to you?

With that said, I'll take the higher rated player, you can take all the 3 & 4 stars you like you know since there's no difference between the two.

 

[JonathanW]

ACTUALLY, 247 DOES go past 2010 (How can YOU be so WRONG?). I'll finish for you.

2010 - #1 Barnes #6 Tobias Harris (Ill take Barnes)
2009 - #1 Favors #6 Xavier Henry (Favors contract is 11million per.. wheres Henry?)
2008 - # 1 Jennings #6 Scotty Hopson (I'll take Jennings)
2007 - #1 Eric Gordon #6 Kyle singler (lol)
2006 - # 1 Olden #6 Budinger (Olden went on to be #1 pick in draft then injuries)
2005 - # 1 Gerald Green #6 Bynum (you win this one)
2004 - #1 Dwight Howard #6 Telfair (LOL)
2003 - # 1 Lebron #6 Kendrick Perkins (**nope, no big difference here**)

I don't care about the decimal value difference between the players cause it's meaningless FOR EXAMPLE;

In 2003, Lebron James was given a value of 1.000 while Kendrick Perkins was given a .9980. Is LBJ only .0020 better than Kendrick Freaking Perkins to you?

With that said, I'll take the higher rated player, you can take all the 3 & 4 stars you like you know since there's no difference between the two.

Since you opened the "cherry picking" door with your James to Perkins comparison, I'll do the same, just looking at last year's class, and even restricting to same position comparisons, and I can easily find lots of examples where rankings were way off.
Giles at 3 ahead of Adebayo (by 9 spots) and several others
Frank Jackson at 5 ahead of Fox & Smith (same position)
Gabriel at 14 ahead of Markannen, Allen, & Leaf
Bolden at 18 ahead of Collins
And I could keep going, not just last year, but every year. The rankings are not foolproof! Skal was freakin #2.

And yes you do care about the decimal value difference between players. You say so when you say a 5 is better than a 4. Because that cutoff between a 4 & a 5 has to be somewhere. All 5's aren't the same, nor are all 4's the same. Player skills are distributed such that there are big gaps between all 5's & all 4's (& between all 4's & all 3's). I am a statistician, it's my job to analyze data/numbers. You won't win this argument with me!

 

[HoldMyBeer]

Since you opened the "cherry picking" door with your James to Perkins comparison, I'll do the same, just looking at last year's class, and even restricting to same position comparisons, and I can easily find lots of examples where rankings were way off.
Giles at 3 ahead of Adebayo (by 9 spots) and several others
Frank Jackson at 5 ahead of Fox & Smith (same position)
Gabriel at 14 ahead of Markannen, Allen, & Leaf
Bolden at 18 ahead of Collins
And I could keep going, not just last year, but every year. The rankings are not foolproof! Skal was freakin #2.

And yes you do care about the decimal value difference between players. You say so when you say a 5 is better than a 4. Because that cutoff between a 4 & a 5 has to be somewhere. All 5's aren't the same, nor are all 4's the same. Player skills are distributed such that there are big gaps between all 5's & all 4's (& between all 4's & all 3's). I am a statistician, it's my job to analyze data/numbers. You won't win this argument with me!

We can go piece for piece all you like, you mentioned Giles and Bam, well with 2 bum knees Giles will still get drafted earlier than bam. So AGAIN as I told the other guy, if you want to build a team of 4 stars while I build one with higher ranked 5 stars (since you claim there's no difference) so be it. I'll take the McDonald's all American you can take the derby classic guy. You can be Tubby, I'll be Cal. I'm cool with that.

 

[HoptownCat93]

ACTUALLY, 247 DOES go past 2010 (How can YOU be so WRONG?). I'll finish for you.

2010 - #1 Barnes #6 Tobias Harris (Ill take Barnes)
2009 - #1 Favors #6 Xavier Henry (Favors contract is 11million per.. wheres Henry?)
2008 - # 1 Jennings #6 Scotty Hopson (I'll take Jennings)
2007 - #1 Eric Gordon #6 Kyle singler (lol)
2006 - # 1 Olden #6 Budinger (Olden went on to be #1 pick in draft then injuries)
2005 - # 1 Gerald Green #6 Bynum (you win this one)
2004 - #1 Dwight Howard #6 Telfair (LOL)
2003 - # 1 Lebron #6 Kendrick Perkins (**nope, no big difference here**)

I don't care about the decimal value difference between the players cause it's meaningless FOR EXAMPLE;

In 2003, Lebron James was given a value of 1.000 while Kendrick Perkins was given a .9980. Is LBJ only .0020 better than Kendrick Freaking Perkins to you?

With that said, I'll take the higher rated player, you can take all the 3 & 4 stars you like you know since there's no difference between the two.

You love to talk about how 1 star and a few numbers difference in the 20's makes a difference? The difference between the #1 and #6 is a big difference than kids in the 20's because the #1 player usually has the consensus highest rating on every site, where a #25 player could be stretched on one site in the teens and the other site in the 30's. And I also never said SGA would start over Green like you claim I said earlier. I just said that whenever Green gets two fouls I bet SGA gets to play instead of putting a forward at the guard spot. I'm sure you were one of the ones loving Wenyen's mixtape last year calling him MKG jr. and he was pointlessness and could play anywhere.


2016: #24 Mustapha Heron #29 Kobi Simmons...I don't know about you but I'd take Kobi Simmons...heck SKJ was #25 but you'd take him over Simmons right? lol

2015: #24 Carlton Bragg #29 DJ Hogg...24 is better this year...but that terrible guard Donovan Mitchell at #30..but you know ranking automatically know best

2014: #24 Isaac Copeland #29 Keita Bates Diop...Big difference here LOL and Joel Berry was #30 for reference..but take the guy ranked a little higher

2013: #24 Jermaine Lawrence (transferred to Manhattan and failed) #29 Zak Irvin(A top player in the nation this year) and Terry Rozier was a 4-star #28 that year..but hey take the 5 star because he's automatically better.

2012: #24 Tony Parker (Undrafted never played NBA) #29 Samj Christon (Played in 64 games for the Thunder this year) Mitch McGary was 28..but you'll take the high ranked guy 5 star over these two..

 

[JonathanW]

We can go piece for piece all you like, you mentioned Giles and Bam, well with 2 bum knees Giles will still get drafted earlier than bam. So AGAIN as I told the other guy, if you want to build a team of 4 stars while I build one with higher ranked 5 stars (since you claim there's no difference) so be it. I'll take the McDonald's all American you can take the derby classic guy. You can be Tubby, I'll be Cal. I'm cool with that.

As a UK fan first, I don't care who the NBS drafts first or who does better in the NBA, I care about who performs better in college. And to suggest Miles was better than Bam last year, or even a top 5 FR PF is stupid.

True, odds are higher for a 5* than for a 4*, but in sports, especially projecting an 18 yr old, there is rarely a X always beats Y scenario.
And back to the original point, most of the time 24 is not significantly better than 29.
You focus on stars claiming there is a significant difference in a 4 and a 5. So if 26 is the last 5 and thus 27 the first 4, then you think those 2 are significantly different? If so that is stupid.