2016-2017- UK vs Duke Comparison

[Galbpt02]

This analysis is riddled with assumptions. Primarily who will go pro and who will stay. It is interesting to me that so many have committed to Duke, because I don't think any of their recruits this year will be able to go pro, except Ingram. Not sure he will even be ready, but he can get drafted on potential. All our recruits KNOW that Coach Cal is getting 5-6 of our guys into the league after the season.

Anyway - here is a look at next year.

Starters

• PG - Fox > Thornton - No way Thornton will be able to go pro this year. Fox is a huge step above Thornton in all aspects, except for experience.
• SG - Monk >/= Matt Jones - I am assuming Grayson Allen goes pro after this season. Matt Jones has significant experience on Monk as a senior, however Monk's talent is on a different level. You take Monk all day, however Jones is likely to be more consistent.
• SF - Gabriel < Tatum - This could change, but every service currently ranks Tatum ahead of Gabriel. Gabriel's ascent up the boards though is remarkable. I think this will be closer than most think and I think Gabriel will flourish due to the playmakers around him. Tatum and Giles will have a lot of pressure on them to be the playmakers for the Blue Devils.
• PF - Bam =/< Giles - Giles will be recovered from knee surgery, but will he be 100%. I love Bam and think he is a perfect fit in our recruiting class but Giles (if healthy) is better at this stage and more polished.
• C - Humphries > Jeter - Jeter won't go pro. While he was ranked higher, Humphries has been much more impressive and will only continue to get better. He will be able to space the floor as a 5 and playing against Lee, Skal and Poythress will improve him far more than Jeter playing against Jefferson and Plumdawg.

Bench

• Guards - Mulder, Matthews, Hawkins < Kennard, Jackson - if UK adds another recruit I think we have the edge or would be even - but as it stands now they have the edge. Kenner (whether we like it or not) will develop into a great offensive player. Jackson is a top 15 recruit as well. Edge Duke.
• Forwards/Centers - SKJ, Wynyard, Willis > DeLaurier, Vrankovic - I bet that Duke adds a big, but I think we will have the edge regardless - even if they add a Bolden. As it stands now this is a big advantage to UK. I think we have a lot of versatility. We have two guys capable of stretching the floor and Wynyard is a banger who can go in an defend and clean the glass on both ends.
• Overall I think the bench is even as it stands now. UK has better depth but Jackson and Kennard are pretty solid reserves. If UK returns someone unexpected or signs anyone else, that changes.

Overall, UK would have the superior team with much more versatility and playmakers in the starting lineup. Two incredible teams, but I take UK all day. I cannot imagine anyone else being ranked ahead of either of them. Michigan State is likely to have a good squad too but not in this class unless they add Josh Jackson.

Good times to be a Wildcat fan that is for sure!!

 

[caneintally]

Actually think Thornton will go pro as many say he is top 20 pick right now . But good work none the less. Jackson will be their starting pg next year IMO .

 

[Galbpt02]

Actually think Thornton will go pro as many say he is top 20 pick right now . But good work none the less. Jackson will be their starting pg next year IMO .

You might be right. I just haven't seen it out of Thornton yet this year and I have watched several of their games. The season is young.

 

[Fitch44]

There is nothing, not even potential, that says Thornton is a first round pick.
What dumb ass site is saying he is top 20 pick?

 

[bucsrule8872]

Good analysis.

Unless they add Bolden, I wouldn't be surprised if Duke goes small next season to maximize their wing players. Most great Duke teams have had a SF at the 4 (Battier, Singler, Winslow).

I think they might play with Thornton, Kennard, Jones, and Tatum around Giles. Then bring Jackson in at guard and Jeter inside off the bench.

Coach K likes a tight 7 man rotation, so this would seem perfect. So they would have their best five starting plus a great guard and a quality big off the bench.

 

[Galbpt02]

Y

Good analysis.

Unless they add Bolden, I wouldn't be surprised if Duke goes small next season to maximize their wing players. Most great Duke teams have had a SF at the 4 (Battier, Singler, Winslow).

I think they might play with Thornton, Kennard, Jones, and Tatum around Giles. Then bring Jackson in at guard and Jeter inside off the bench.

Coach K likes a tight 7 man rotation, so this would seem perfect. So they would have their best five starting plus a great guard and a quality big off the bench.

You could easily be right - good observation on Coach K's teams. That would be their top 5 for sure, Jeter is very very raw at this stage and likely next year as well. Kennard will be the Grayson Allen of next year's squad.

 

[Untouchables22]

I appreciate all the time you put into that but it's pretty simple as things stand now. We will have the superior backcourt and they will have the better front court. I hope Giles likes playing Center because that's where he will likely spend most of his time.

 

[TheDude1]

Ehh... good stuff, but I find myself disagreeing on a few points.

I think you are SEVERELY underestimating Thornton. Kid was either the top PG or second highest PG in his class, both before and after reclassifying. He is very athletic, very long, and a fantastic defender. He started off on the wrong foot (only got to Duke late) and doesn't have the same talent as last year's Duke team or NEXT year's Duke team to pass to. Just in the last few games you can see that the light has come on, and in the last two he has averaged 16.5 points, and shot approx 58 percent from two and 50 percent from three. He is expected to go to the league without any question, most likely after next year. I think he is at least as good as Fox, especially when you consider he will have a year in the Duke system.

Disagree on Monk and Jones... I think Monk is going to be better, simply put. Sure, Jones will be older and a good defender, but everything I've seen/read about Monk is that he is one of the few real TOP caliber guys in that class. By the end of the year I think Monk will be a top level stud on a national level.

Agreed on Tatum; I don't see Gabriel catching up, as I think Tatum (along with Giles, Monk, Jackson...) is just on a whole different level of talent. That said, Gabriel has a TON of upside.

Giles is another guy who is simply better in almost every way than Bam. That said, it is complete conjecture until we see how he comes back from injury; he could end up back where he was, one of THE most dominant guys we've seen in years, or he could end up being a step slower and simply not what he was. Gotta give this one an incomplete.

Not sure how Humphries would be above Jeter... I probably haven't seen enough, but Jeter is a highly regarded recruit with fantastic physical tools.

As for the bench, some depends on who is coming back. Allen goes? Ingram goes? Kennard and Jackson I expect will be studs, so I agree with you on the edge there. Also agree on the edge with the bigs... I don't expect a lot from the Duke bigs. Of course, it also depends on if Duke lands another one.

Anyway... I think you underestimate how good Thornton is (and how good he is going to be) and overestimate how well Jones will match up with Monk.

 

[Aike]

I wish I could remember the posters who were FREAKING OUT a few months ago over how much better than us Duke would be next year.

 

[bigbluelou]

This is a good thread. I approve.

 

[Bigkyfan10]

We also have no idea if Lee, Briscoe, or Ulis will go pro. I'm willing to bet at least two will leave, not so sure about one. Lee and Briscoe could drop to second round maybe making them want to stay. On one draft board Ulis isn't even listed for this upcoming draft. He's projected late first/early second for the following draft so it's possible he could come back. Skal, Murray, and Poythress are definently gone. No way Skal or Murray fall out of lottery and Poythress is classified as a senior this year. Personally I hope Ulis leads us to a title this hear, comes back and leads them to a second straight title.

 

[Galbpt02]

Just saw that Bolden is a Kansas lean. Not sure Duke will add another big man.

 

[WitnessGreatness]

NBADraft.net doesn't have Thorton in their 2 round mock draft. Grayson Allen isn't on there either. Only Duke player on there is Ingram at 4.

 

[UK_Johnny24]

I think Ulis may come back even though he's the best damn point guard in college basketball. Duke will return Allen and most likely Thornton too.

 

[Galbpt02]

If Thornton and Allen both come back and we lose all of our guards, I think Duke has better depth than us - however we have superior top end talent. I think Allen is gone.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

If Thornton and Allen both come back and we lose all of our guards, I think Duke has better depth than us - however we have superior top end talent. I think Allen is gone.

I don't see us losing Ulis and/or Briscoe. One of them will come back

 

[bucsrule8872]

Ultimately(by March), I think their rotation will be:

Starters
G Thornton
G Kennard
G Jones
F Tatum
F Giles

Bench
G Jackson- first guard off the bench.
F Jeter- first big off the bench.
F DeLaurier- depth.

For us:

Starters
G Fox
G Monk
F Gabriel
F Killeya-Jones
F Adebayo

Bench
G Matthews- first guard off the bench.
F Humphries- first big off the bench.
F Willis- depth.

Depth is pretty much even.

Duke will have a slight advantage in experience.

UK will have five Freshmen, two Sophs, and a Senior in their top eight.

Duke will have four Freshmen, three Sophs, and a Senior in their top eight.

Talent wise, Duke has a slight edge.

UK will have five 5-stars, two 4-stars, and a 3-star in their top eight.

Duke will have six 5-stars and two 4-stars in their top eight.

Size advantage goes to UK.

UK will be 6'3, 6'3, 6'6, 6'8, 6'9, 6'10, 6'11, 7'0.

Duke will be 6'2, 6'4, 6'5, 6'5, 6'8, 6'9, 6'9, 6'10.

I don't see a huge advantage for Duke. The teams look pretty even.

These two teams should be top five, maybe the top two, in the preseason polls.

KU with Mason, Graham, Greene, and Bragg back and probably adding Bolden should be in the top 5.

Michigan St. will be near the top with Nairn, Harris, Bess, Ellis, Clark, Schilling, and Davis back plus Bridges, Langford, Winston, and Ward.

KU or MSU could add Jackson as well, making them even better.

The Champions Classic next season might feature the top four preseason teams.