40 Year Case Study: What Wins Championships? Raw Talent or Roster Continuity?

[jwphelps]

Had a discussion with a fellow poster recently, where the poster continued to express doubt about the way Pope is trying to build his roster around the less talented players. According to the poster, if you want to win championships you need elite talent and Pope’s failure to bring in top 10 or top 25 blue chip talent speaks volumes about the program descending into irrelevance. I did a review of the five most recent national champions and honed in on the starting five players. I looked for a trend. What is the common thread amongst this data? Is there something we can learn about the traits found on national championship teams?

First, the lineups:

2025 Florida Gators

Will Richard (Returnee) - 3*
Reuben Chinyelu (Transfer) - 4*
Walter Clayton Jr. (Returnee) - 3*
Alijah Martin (Transfer) - 3*
Alex Condon (Returnee) - Unrated



2024 UConn Huskies

Tristen Newton (Returnee) - Unrated
Cam Spencer (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Returnee) - 4*
Donovan Klingan (Returnee) - 4*
Stephon Castle - (OAD) - 5* (10th)



2023 UConn Huskies

Adama Sanogo (Returnee) - 4*
Tristen Newton (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Freshman) - 4*
Jordan Hawkins (Returnee) - 4*
Andre Jackson Jr. (Returnee) - 4*



2022 Kansas Jayhawks

Ochai Agbaji (Returnee) - 3*
Christian Braun (Returnee) - 4*
Dajuan Harris Jr. (Returnee) - 4*
David McCormack (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Wilson (Returnee) - 4*



2021 Baylor Bears

Jared Butler (Returnee) - 4*
MaCio Teague (Returnee) - 3*
Davion Mitchell (Returnee) - 4*
Mark Vital (Returnee) - 4*
Flo Thamba (Returnee) - 3*


Using 24/7 Sports and Rivals as resources, I looked for high school rankings of each starter to determine how many of the players were five star blue chippers. Out of a sample of 25 players, only one player would meet the criteria of being 5*, which was 2024 UConn’s Stephon Castle. For this set of data, which is admittedly a small sample size, a national champion over the last five years has consisted of 4% blue chip players. What I found was four star players were a very common thread amongst these lineups.

On the other hand, returnees made up 19 of the 25 players within the sample. To be a returnee, obviously a player must have been a roster member of the national championship team, as well as the prior season. National champions over the last five seasons’ starting lineups are made up of mostly returnees at a 76 percent rate. Zero teams in that timespan won a national championship without having at least THREE members of their starting lineup being a returnee.


(As a note, I will daily add more data to this thread and provide more insight on this topic. I seek to eventually have data going as far back as I can on this topic over time).

Were any of you surprised by any of the information? I look forward to some of your thoughts.

You are rarely going to win with most of your talent being freshmen.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

2011 UConn Huskies

Kemba Walker (Returnee) - 5* (14th)
Jeremy Lamb (Freshman) - 4*
Alex Oriakhi (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Roscoe Smith (Freshman) - 4*
Charles Okwandu (Returnee) - 3*

2010 Duke Blue Devils

Jon Scheyer (Returnee) - 4*
Kyle Singler (Returnee) - 5* (5th)
Lance Thomas (Returnee) - 4*
Nolan Smith (Returnee) - 4*
Miles Plumlee (Returnee) - 3*

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Going to stop for tonight and update the original post with all of the updated data

 

[mebeblue2]

Well…data doesn’t show that so far. Even in the portal era championship rosters are mostly returnees.

the thing about the true OAD era there was only two schools using a lot of OAD players UK and Duke
any better will tell you to take the field over any one team (this year was a prime example)

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

the thing about the true OAD era there was only two schools using a lot of OAD players UK and Duke
any better will tell you to take the field over any one team (this year was a prime example)

Argument works in reverse. If only two schools using OAD, that means higher concentration of OAD talent. If the model works, those two programs should have dominated the era. Instead, each program won only one title each.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

TOTAL STARTERS: 77
TOTAL FRESHMAN: 13 (16.9%)
TOTAL OAD FRESHMAN: 8 (10.4%)
TOTAL RETURNEES: 59 (76.6%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR TRANSFERS: 5 (6.5%)
TOTAL 5 STAR HS PLAYERS: 18 (23.4%)
TOTAL 4 STAR HS PLAYERS: 39 (50.6%)
TOTAL 3 STAR HS PLAYERS: 12 (15.6%)
TOTAL UNRATED HS PLAYERS: 7 (9.1%)


My takeaway: Take as many 4 stars as you can and keep them as long as you can! Over half of the championship starters in the last 15 years were four star high school prospects and over 3/4 of every starter was a returning player.

 

[Phil_The_Music]

2013 Louisville Cardinals

Peyton Siva (Returnee) - 4*
Russ Smith (Returnee) - 3*
Chane Behanan (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Wayne Blackshear (Returnee) - 4*
Gorgui Dieng (Returnee) - 4*

This team doesn't count!!

 

[bucsrule8872]

So 2012 and 2015 are kind of outliers really.

And even those teams both had key returnees that help lead them to the title. Cook and Jefferson were critical for Duke and we don’t win the title in 2012 without Jones, Lamb, and Miller.

I guess it’s always been about retention and development.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

So 2012 and 2015 are kind of outliers really.

And even those teams both had key returnees that help lead them to the title. Cook and Jefferson were critical for Duke and we don’t win the title without Jones, Lamb, and Miller.

I guess it’s always been about retention and development.

I agree. 2 titles in a 15 year sample by teams that had starting lineups without at least three returnees, and you’re right —- both of those returned two key players. I was a Calipari supporter close to the end, but the data has me thinking he was done here long before the results said he was done here. No shade intended on that — I’m not an anti-Cal guy, but yeah championship teams simply do not rely on freshman for the most part and definitely not on one and dones.

 

[Phil_The_Music]

Had a discussion with a fellow poster recently, where the poster continued to express doubt about the way Pope is trying to build his roster around the less talented players. According to the poster, if you want to win championships you need elite talent and Pope’s failure to bring in top 10 or top 25 blue chip talent speaks volumes about the program descending into irrelevance. I did a review of the five most recent national champions and honed in on the starting five players. I looked for a trend. What is the common thread amongst this data? Is there something we can learn about the traits found on national championship teams?

Thanks for all of your hard work. This is good stuff!

 

[Bereacat420]

I think especially when evaluating roster continuity everything changed with the introduction of the transfer portal. I actually think things are so different now that you can’t even compare data from the non-portal era. But it’s an interesting project thank you for your hard work!

Time will tell and UF had 2 transfers but overall since the portal started it was about returnees. Add on that UF’s 6-7 men were also returnees. It is all about continuity and sprinkling in a couple talented freshmen or transfers. Seldom is a team of Freshman or transfers gonna win the title over a team that has played together a year or two

 

[mebeblue2]

Argument works in reverse. If only two schools using OAD, that means higher concentration of OAD talent. If the model works, those two programs should have dominated the era. Instead, each program won only one title each.

not really, you have far more teams with players returning so they should have a far greater chance of winning
most years you have less then 5 OAD players that are true difference makers
as i stated take the field over any team and you will win far more than you lose regardless of if they have OAD players or all seniors

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

not really, you have far more teams with players returning so they should have a far greater chance of winning
most years you have less then 5 OAD players that are true difference makers
as i stated take the field over any team and you will win far more than you lose regardless of if they have OAD players or all seniors

Don’t think you’re gonna see many teams winning titles with the OAD formula anymore. Maybe sprinkle one onto a roster with heavy retention and you might get a spark from the natural talent

 

[bucsrule8872]

I agree. 2 titles in a 15 year sample by teams that had starting lineups without at least three returnees, and you’re right —- both of those returned two key players. I was a Calipari supporter close to the end, but the data has me thinking he was done here long before the results said he was done here. No shade intended on that — I’m not an anti-Cal guy, but yeah championship teams simply do not rely on freshman for the most part and definitely not on one and dones.

Not to defend Cal, but he did try to change a bit toward the end. Everyone continues to harp on Cal for always relying on Freshmen, but he had six Seniors in his main rotation in ‘23 including the reigning NPOY in Tshiebwe and still couldn’t get out of the first weekend.

Cal is just not a very good coach. He lucked up this season and had some guys step up and he got the right matchups (a dysfunctional KU team and an overrated St. John’s team that struggled to score points).

We blame it on his reliance on Freshmen, but really he is just not a very good X’s and O’s coach anymore.

 

[mebeblue2]

Don’t think you’re gonna see many teams winning titles with the OAD formula anymore. Maybe sprinkle one onto a roster with heavy retention and you might get a spark from the natural talent

to be honest we never really did under the old OAD model (just not enough transcendent talent year to year on one team)
we now have a new OAD model where a very competitive team can be built in one year using older OAD players
i think we agree that an 18 year old team is going to have a tough time playing a 22- 23 year old team unless you have guys like AD and MKG

 

[mebeblue2]

Not to defend Cal, but he did try to change a bit toward the end. Everyone continues to harp on Cal for always relying on Freshmen, but he had six Seniors in his main rotation in ‘23 including the reigning NPOY in Tshiebwe and still couldn’t get out of the first weekend.

Cal is just not a very good coach. He lucked up this season and had some guys step up and he got the right matchups (a dysfunctional KU team and an overrated St. John’s team that struggled to score points).

We blame it on his reliance on Freshmen, but really he is just not a very good X’s and O’s coach anymore.

no doubt we had the best team in CBB last year
we just needed someone to coach them

 

[fatguy87]

I found the whole "Can OAD style win" debates to be tiresome. The goal posts would always be moved. One would say "OAD can't win. A freshman led team has never won the title." Point out that Syracuse was led by a OAD player and that their rotation was largely freshman. It then changes to greater and greater percentages of the roster when counterexamples are presented.

It's not X and O's that keep freshmen led teams from winning the title. It's that there are few freshmen who are good enough to be in the top 5 or 6 of a rotation on elite teams, and that there are many more teams in the tournament not relying on freshman. We know first hand how hard it is to predict how good freshmen will be. Sometimes a prospect in the 20-30 range are gamechangers, like Booker and Lamb. We've also seen 5 stars that we've presumably built the team around not perform well.

Cal could nail recruiting one year. His team gets the overall number 1 seed and is the best team in the tournament with 5 freshmen starters. At best, their win% for the title will be like 30%. That means there is a 70% chance any team but them wins. So not only would there need to be 5 freshmen good enough to play on an elite team, but it also has to beat a field of teams without freshmen running the show.

Their isn't a magical barrier against OAD rosters. It's math. A lot has to go right.

 

[AJG-15]

If there was magic formula on how to build your team to win championships, everyone would have done it.
But nobody won a championship with bad players.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

If there was magic formula on how to build your team to win championships, everyone would have done it.
But nobody won a championship with bad players.

Absolutely true. This thread and my research isn’t to find a magic formula. It is to find trends. So far, I feel confident in saying there are certainly some trends to be found.

 

[FltDoc]

The only thing I take from this ... is that you don't have to assemble an all 5* directly out-of-highschool roster (as we've been accustomed to in the past)

So, a mind-shift on many of the fan base's part

I'm gonna' trust the coach (Pope), and when it doesn't work anymore (Cal), advocate for a change.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Rivals started posting exhaustive recruit rankings in 2003 so many players no longer have rankings as you go back. Instead, I did notate if a player was selected to a Parade AA team for those interested in tracking the perceived talent while still in high school.


2009 North Carolina Tar Heels

Danny Green (Returnee) - 4*
Wayne Ellington (Returnee) - 5* (8th)
Deon Thompson (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Lawson (Returnee) - 5* (9th)
Tyler Hansbrough (Returnee) - 5* (10th)

2008 Kansas Jayhawks

Russell Robinson (Returnee) - 5* (27th)
Darrell Arthur (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Mario Chalmers (Returnee) - 5* (12th)
Darnell Jackson (Returnee) - 4*
Brandon Rush (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2007 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2006 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2005 North Carolina Tar Heels

Jawad Williams (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Jackie Manuel (Returnee)
Sean May (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Raymond Felton Jr. (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Rashad McCants (Returnee) - 4*

2004 UConn Huskies

Ben Gordon (Returnee)
Taliek Brown (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Josh Boone (Freshman) - 4*
Emeka Okafor (Returnee)
Denham Brown (Returnee) - 3*

2003 Syracuse Orange

Carmelo Anthony (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Hakim Warrick (Returnee)
Gerry McNamara (Freshman) - 4*
Kueth Duany (Returnee)
Craig Forth (Returnee)

2002 Maryland Terrapins

Juan Dixon (Returnee)
Steve Blake (Returnee)
Lonny Baxter (Returnee)
Byron Mouton (Returnee)
Chris Wilcox (Returnee)

2001 Duke Blue Devils

Jay Williams (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Shane Battier (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Nate James (Returnee)
Carlos Boozer (Returnee) - Parade 1st

2000 Michigan State Spartans

Morris Peterson (Returnee)
Charlie Bell (Returnee)
Andre Hutson (Returnee)
A.J. Granger (Returnee)
Mateen Cleaves (Returnee) - Parade 1st

 

[W1LDCAT22]

Had a discussion with a fellow poster recently, where the poster continued to express doubt about the way Pope is trying to build his roster around the less talented players. According to the poster, if you want to win championships you need elite talent and Pope’s failure to bring in top 10 or top 25 blue chip talent speaks volumes about the program descending into irrelevance. I did a review of the five most recent national champions and honed in on the starting five players. I looked for a trend. What is the common thread amongst this data? Is there something we can learn about the traits found on national championship teams?

First, the lineups:

2025 Florida Gators

Will Richard (Returnee) - 3*
Reuben Chinyelu (Transfer) - 4*
Walter Clayton Jr. (Returnee) - 3*
Alijah Martin (Transfer) - 3*
Alex Condon (Returnee) - Unrated

2024 UConn Huskies

Tristen Newton (Returnee) - Unrated
Cam Spencer (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Returnee) - 4*
Donovan Klingan (Returnee) - 4*
Stephon Castle - (OAD) - 5* (10th)

2023 UConn Huskies

Adama Sanogo (Returnee) - 4*
Tristen Newton (Transfer) - Unrated
Alex Karaban (Freshman) - 4*
Jordan Hawkins (Returnee) - 4*
Andre Jackson Jr. (Returnee) - 4*

2022 Kansas Jayhawks

Ochai Agbaji (Returnee) - 3*
Christian Braun (Returnee) - 4*
Dajuan Harris Jr. (Returnee) - 4*
David McCormack (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Wilson (Returnee) - 4*

2021 Baylor Bears

Jared Butler (Returnee) - 4*
MaCio Teague (Returnee) - 3*
Davion Mitchell (Returnee) - 4*
Mark Vital (Returnee) - 4*
Flo Thamba (Returnee) - 3*

2019 Virginia Cavaliers

Kyle Guy (Returnee) - 4*
De’Andre Hunter (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Jerome (Returnee) - 4*
Jack Salt (Returnee) - Unrated
Mamadi Diakite (Returnee) - 4*

2018 Villanova Wildcats

Jalen Brunson (Returnee) - 5* (20th)
Mikal Bridges (Returnee) - 4*
Omari Spellman (OAD) - 5* (18th)
Eric Paschall (Returnee) - 3*
Phil Booth (Returnee) - 4*

2017 North Carolina Tar Heels

Kennedy Meeks (Returnee) - 4*
Justin Jackson (Returnee) - 5* (11th)
Isaiah Hicks (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Joel Berry II (Returnee) - 4*
Kenny Williams (Returnee) - 4*

2016 Villanova Wildcats

Josh Hart (Returnee) - 4*
Ryan Arcidiacono (Returnee) - 4*
Jalen Brunson (Freshman) - 5* (20th)
Kris Jenkins (Returnee) - 4*
Daniel Ochefu (Returnee) - 4*

2015 Duke Blue Devils

Quinn Cook (Returnee) - 4*
Justise Winslow (OAD) - 5* (12th)
Tyus Jones (OAD) - 5* (7th)
Jahlil Okafor (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Amile Jefferson (Returnee) - 4*

2014 UConn Huskies

Shabazz Napier (Returnee) - 4*
DeAndre Daniels (Returnee) - 5* (10th)
Ryan Boatright (Returnee) - 4*
Phillip Nolan (Returnee) - 3*
Lasan Kromah (Transfer) - Unrated
Amida Brimah (Freshman) - 3*
Niels Giffey (Returnee) - Unrated

2013 Louisville Cardinals

Peyton Siva (Returnee) - 4*
Russ Smith (Returnee) - 3*
Chane Behanan (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Wayne Blackshear (Returnee) - 4*
Gorgui Dieng (Returnee) - 4*

2012 Kentucky Wildcats

Anthony Davis (OAD) - 5* (2nd)
Marquis Teague (OAD) - 5* (5th)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (OAD) - 5* (3rd)
Doron Lamb (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Terrence Jones (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2011 UConn Huskies

Kemba Walker (Returnee) - 5* (14th)
Jeremy Lamb (Freshman) - 4*
Alex Oriakhi (Returnee) - 5* (21st)
Roscoe Smith (Freshman) - 4*
Charles Okwandu (Returnee) - 3*

2010 Duke Blue Devils

Jon Scheyer (Returnee) - 4*
Kyle Singler (Returnee) - 5* (5th)
Lance Thomas (Returnee) - 4*
Nolan Smith (Returnee) - 4*
Miles Plumlee (Returnee) - 3*

Using 24/7 Sports and Rivals as resources, I looked for high school rankings of each starter to determine how many of the players were five star blue chippers. Out of a sample of 25 players, only one player would meet the criteria of being 5*, which was 2024 UConn’s Stephon Castle. For this set of data, which is admittedly a small sample size, a national champion over the last five years has consisted of 4% blue chip players. What I found was four star players were a very common thread amongst these lineups.

On the other hand, returnees made up 19 of the 25 players within the sample. To be a returnee, obviously a player must have been a roster member of the national championship team, as well as the prior season. National champions over the last five seasons’ starting lineups are made up of mostly returnees at a 76 percent rate. Zero teams in that timespan won a national championship without having at least THREE members of their starting lineup being a returnee.


(As a note, I will daily add more data to this thread and provide more insight on this topic. I seek to eventually have data going as far back as I can on this topic over time).

Were any of you surprised by any of the information? I look forward to some of your thoughts.



UPDATE:
TOTAL STARTERS: 77
TOTAL FRESHMAN: 13 (16.9%)
TOTAL OAD FRESHMAN: 8 (10.4%)
TOTAL RETURNEES: 59 (76.6%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR TRANSFERS: 5 (6.5%)
TOTAL 5 STAR HS PLAYERS: 18 (23.4%)
TOTAL 4 STAR HS PLAYERS: 39 (50.6%)
TOTAL 3 STAR HS PLAYERS: 12 (15.6%)
TOTAL UNRATED HS PLAYERS: 7 (9.1%)

Florida was definitely the outlier here. Winning a championship with a roster like Florida's is rare and difficult to do, as every piece had to perfectly fit into place. Your best odds is recruiting the best possible players, and kids who fit certain roles best.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Florida was definitely the outlier here. Winning a championship with a roster like Florida's is rare and difficult to do, as every piece had to perfectly fit into place. Your best odds is recruiting the best possible players, and kids who fit certain roles best.

I’m not sure that’s what I see from the data 🤔

 

[W1LDCAT22]

I’m not sure that’s what I see from the data 🤔

I see Florida's team full of unranked players compared to every other team. It is very rare having a starting lineup full of 5*, albiet it does happen, but it's very rare and unrealistic. People also seem to think that 4* kids aren't elite anymore.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I see Florida's team full of unranked players compared to every other team. It is very rare having a starting lineup full of 5*, albiet it does happen, but it's very rare and unrealistic. People also seem to think that 4* kids aren't elite anymore.

Are you basing your opinion on the 2000-2009 data or the larger sample at the beginning of the thread?

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Rivals started posting exhaustive recruit rankings in 2003 so many players no longer have rankings as you go back. Instead, I did notate if a player was selected to a Parade AA team for those interested in tracking the perceived talent while still in high school.


2009 North Carolina Tar Heels

Danny Green (Returnee) - 4*
Wayne Ellington (Returnee) - 5* (8th)
Deon Thompson (Returnee) - 4*
Ty Lawson (Returnee) - 5* (9th)
Tyler Hansbrough (Returnee) - 5* (10th)

2008 Kansas Jayhawks

Russell Robinson (Returnee) - 5* (27th)
Darrell Arthur (Returnee) - 5* (16th)
Mario Chalmers (Returnee) - 5* (12th)
Darnell Jackson (Returnee) - 4*
Brandon Rush (Returnee) - 5* (13th)

2007 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2006 Florida Gators

Taurean Green (Returnee) - 3*
Joakim Noah (Returnee) - 4*
Lee Humphrey (Returnee) - 3*
Corey Brewer (Returnee) - 4*
Al Horford (Returnee) - 4*

2005 North Carolina Tar Heels

Jawad Williams (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Jackie Manuel (Returnee)
Sean May (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Raymond Felton Jr. (Returnee) - 5* (1st)
Rashad McCants (Returnee) - 4*

2004 UConn Huskies

Ben Gordon (Returnee)
Taliek Brown (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Josh Boone (Freshman) - 4*
Emeka Okafor (Returnee)
Denham Brown (Returnee) - 3*

2003 Syracuse Orange

Carmelo Anthony (OAD) - 5* (1st)
Hakim Warrick (Returnee)
Gerry McNamara (Freshman) - 4*
Kueth Duany (Returnee)
Craig Forth (Returnee)

2002 Maryland Terrapins

Juan Dixon (Returnee)
Steve Blake (Returnee)
Lonny Baxter (Returnee)
Byron Mouton (Returnee)
Chris Wilcox (Returnee)

2001 Duke Blue Devils

Jay Williams (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Shane Battier (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Nate James (Returnee)
Carlos Boozer (Returnee) - Parade 1st

2000 Michigan State Spartans

Morris Peterson (Returnee)
Charlie Bell (Returnee)
Andre Hutson (Returnee)
A.J. Granger (Returnee)
Mateen Cleaves (Returnee) - Parade 1st

1999 Connecticut Huskies

Kevin Freeman (Returnee)
Ricky Moore (Returnee)
Khalid El-Amin (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Richard Hamilton (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Jake Voskuhl (Returnee)

1998 Kentucky Wildcats

Wayne Turner (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Jeff Sheppard (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Scott Padgett (Returnee)
Allen Edwards (Returnee)
Nazr Mohammed (Returnee)

1997 Arizona Wildcats

Michael Dickerson (Returnee)
Mike Bibby (Freshman) - Parade 1st
Bennett Davison (Junior)
A.J. Bramlett (Returnee)
Jason Terry (Returnee)
Miles Simon (Returnee)

1996 Kentucky Wildcats

Tony Delk (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Antoine Walker (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Walter McCarty (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Derek Anderson (Transfer)
Anthony Epps (Returnee)

1995 UCLA Bruins

Ed O’Bannon Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Charles O’Bannon (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Tyus Edney (Returnee)
George Zidek (Returnee)
Toby Bailey Jr. (Freshman)

1994 Arkansas Razorbacks

Corliss Williamson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Scotty Thurman (Returnee)
Corey Beck (Returnee)
Dwight Stewart (Returnee)
Clint McDaniel (Returnee)

1993 North Carolina Tar Heels

George Lynch III (Returnee)
Eric Montross (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Derrick Phelps (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Brian Reese (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Henrik Rodl (Returnee)

1992 Duke Blue Devils

Christian Laettner (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Thomas Hill (Returnee)
Brian Davis (Returnee)
Bobby Hurley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Grant Hill (Returnee) - Parade 3rd

1991 Duke Blue Devils

Christian Laettner (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Bobby Hurley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Grant Hill (Freshman) - Parade 3rd
Thomas Hill (Returnee)
Bill McCaffrey (Returnee) - Parade 4th

1990 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Larry Johnson (Junior) - Parade 1st
Stacey Augmon (Returnee)
Anderson Hunt (Returnee)
Greg Anthony (Returnee)
David Butler (Returnee) - Parade 3rd

1989 Michigan Wolverines

Glen Rice (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Terry Mills (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Rumeal Robinson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Mike Griffin (Returnee)
Loy Vaught (Returnee)

1988 Kansas Jayhawks

Danny Manning (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Kevin Pritchard (Returnee)
Chris Piper (Returnee)
Milt Newton (Returnee)
Jeff Gueldner (Returnee)

1987 Indiana Hoosiers

Steve Alford (Returnee)
Daryl Thomas (Returnee) - Parade 3rd
Dean Garrett (Junior)
Keith Smart (Junior)
Rick Calloway (Returnee) - Parade 2nd

1986 Louisville Cardinals

Billy Thompson (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Milt Wagner Jr. (Returnee) - Parade 2nd
Pervis Ellison (Freshman)
Herbert Crook (Returnee)
Jeff Hall (Returnee)

1985 Villanova Wildcats

Ed Pinckney (Returnee) - Parade 4th
Harold Pressley (Returnee) - Parade 1st
Gary McLain (Returnee)
Dwight Wilbur (Returnee)
Dwayne McClain (Returnee)

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

UPDATE:
TOTAL STARTERS IN SAMPLE: 203
TOTAL NON-OAD FRESHMAN: 11 (5.4%)
TOTAL OAD FRESHMAN: 9 (4.4%)
TOTAL COMBINED FRESHMAN: 20 (9.9%)
TOTAL RETURNEES: 173 (85.2%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR TRANSFERS: 10 (4.9%)
TOTAL 1ST YEAR IN PROGRAM: 30 (14.8%)
TOTAL SAMPLE RIVALS ERA: 103
TOTAL 5 STAR RIVALS ERA: 28 (27.2%)
TOTAL 4 STAR RIVALS ERA: 51 (49.5%)
TOTAL 3 STAR RIVALS ERA: 17 (16.5%)
TOTAL UNRATED RIVALS ERA: 7 (6.8%)
TOTAL SAMPLE PRE-RIVALS ERA: 100
TOTAL PARADE 1ST PRE-RIVALS: 18 (18.0%)
TOTAL PARADE 2ND PRE-RIVALS: 10 (10.0%)
TOTAL PARADE 3RD PRE-RIVALS: 7 (7.0%)
TOTAL NON-PARADE PRE-RIVALS: 65 (65.0%)

FINAL CONCLUSIONS:

When considering the data, it is clear to me that retention is the more important element in building a championship roster. It is no surprise that you need an element of both talent and continuity to win at the highest level.

Interesting note, however: even if you combine all of the players who are 5 stars, 4 stars, 1st team Parade AA and 2nd team AA, championship rosters would be made up by 52.7% of that talent sample. On the other hand, since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, championship rosters consist of mostly returning players who were in the program the prior year. Over 85 percent of starters in the sample were returning players. It is also interesting to note that the top rated Rivals player won the national championship only three times: Raymond Felton (UNC), Sean May (UNC) and Carmelo Anthony (SYR). Carmelo Anthony remains the only OAD of that group who won the title.

No team in the NCAA Tournament 64 team era has won a national championship without two starters who were on the team the prior season. Out of the 40 year sample, only 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke won championships without at least three returning players in the sample. Roster continuity has shown to be a difference maker in the past and likely will factor into who will determine the future champions, as well.

 

[Creed Bratton]

It's not really star power or not, it's all transfer portal now. A 5 star freshman may have the better career long term but a 24 year old 3 star is going to be better right now in college....stronger, knows how to play college basketball, etc

One and done doesn't work anymore

Well I guess we know you aren't Calipari posting anonymously. 🤣

 

[Creed Bratton]

FINAL CONCLUSIONS:

When considering the data, it is clear to me that retention is the more important element in building a championship roster. It is no surprise that you need an element of both talent and continuity to win at the highest level.

Interesting note, however: even if you combine all of the players who are 5 stars, 4 stars, 1st team Parade AA and 2nd team AA, championship rosters would be made up by 52.7% of that talent sample. On the other hand, since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, championship rosters consist of mostly returning players who were in the program the prior year. Over 85 percent of starters in the sample were returning players. It is also interesting to note that the top rated Rivals player won the national championship only three times: Raymond Felton (UNC), Sean May (UNC) and Carmelo Anthony (SYR). Carmelo Anthony remains the only OAD of that group who won the title.

No team in the NCAA Tournament 64 team era has won a national championship without two starters who were on the team the prior season. Out of the 40 year sample, only 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke won championships without at least three returning players in the sample. Roster continuity has shown to be a difference maker in the past and likely will factor into who will determine the future champions, as well.

I agree 100% with you on roster continuity. I would rather have 3 & 4 star players that have been together on the same team for 2,3 or 4 years than a bunch of one and done 5 stars.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I agree 100% with you on roster continuity. I would rather have 3 & 4 star players that have been together on the same team for 2,3 or 4 years than a bunch of one and done 5 stars.

Yep, I agree. Honestly, I’m good with Pope not going for the blue chip 5 star guys (maybe one every couple of years) and just going all in on mid to low 4 star guys that will be in college for at least three years. Looking back through the data, talent definitely matters. When you look into the 90s and 00s you see so many of those 5 stars winning, because back then they stayed in college. Those level of guys no longer stay and that’s the problem. Almost 50% of the starters in the Rivals era are four stars. To me, that’s clearly the way to go. High value talent but not quite NBA ready for a couple years.

 

[Dalroxas]

You need a team that plays…well like a team. No 5 one on one types. Selfish ball or lack of rhythm hurts every time.

Defense is also key. Gotta play defense.

The talent level gap between the number 1 player and the worst major role player on a team isn’t all that big.


I watched both UConn titles in 23 and 24. They played within themselves and moved the ball incredibly well, slashed to the basket and didn’t make too many mistakes. The game was very slow from their perspective. And it appears that way to every team that wins it.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

You need a team that plays…well like a team. No 5 one on one types. Selfish ball or lack of rhythm hurts every time.

Defense is also key. Gotta play defense.

The talent level gap between the number 1 player and the worst major role player on a team isn’t all that big.

I’ve thought about going back and looking at each position to see if continuity matters at some positions more than others. I might look to do that over the summer after the roster stuff is finished. My guess is PG matters most for continuity but that could be wrong.

 

[Dalroxas]

I’ve thought about going back and looking at each position to see if continuity matters at some positions more than others. I might look to do that over the summer after the roster stuff is finished. My guess is PG matters most for continuity but that could be wrong.

I added something about UConn during their repeat and how the game just appeared slow from their perspective so continuity definitely matters. They were able to run plays for easy scores and they ran a lot of them. They moved the ball around and didn’t make mistakes.

Look at Florida winning and returning their players in 2007 and how the game appeared easy to them. UConn same way. Kentucky when it made its run to the final four in 13-14 and how that built us up to do the same in 14-15.

 

[Dalroxas]

I think you need a combination of experienced players and freshman. But you need to know the players can play at this level. So building through the portal is much better than recruiting high school right now imo.

I’ll say this as well, UConn in 23-24 and the gators in 2006-07 played similar to how the spurs played during their dynasty in the 00s. Played well within themselves, you had one superstar player and everyone else was just very smart fundamentally sound players who didn’t make mistakes and slowed the game down in their minds. That’s how we need to play. Nothing flashy just sound fundamental ball. That’s how you win and you do that through experience far more than you do pure sheer talent.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I added something about UConn during their repeat and how the game just appeared slow from their perspective so continuity definitely matters. They were able to run plays for easy scores and they ran a lot of them. They moved the ball around and didn’t make mistakes.

Look at Florida winning and returning their players in 2007 and how the game appeared easy to them. UConn same way. Kentucky when it made its run to the final four in 13-14 and how that built us up to do the same in 14-15.

With UConn, they run some of the most sophisticated offensive sets out of anyone in the country. That’s why I get worried the more guys Hurley can retain.

Because our offense relies on our guys being able to make essentially option reads in sync with other teammates, I feel that continuity will be a big help for us as well. I was pretty confident that year one in Pope would likely pale in comparison to the follow ups for that very reason.

I know there’s a lot of external pressure from fans for Pope to get the type of player that we think we want, but I already know Pope has looked at his own data (which is why he’s always talking about minutes continuity). That might mean intentionally going for a slightly lower rated player more often than not. Can fans find patience with that?

 

[Dalroxas]

With UConn, they run some of the most sophisticated offensive sets out of anyone in the country. That’s why I get worried the more guys Hurley can retain.

Because our offense relies on our guys being able to make essentially option reads in sync with other teammates, I feel that continuity will be a big help for us as well. I was pretty confident that year one in Pope would likely pale in comparison to the follow ups for that very reason.

I know there’s a lot of external pressure from fans for Pope to get the type of player that we think we want, but I already know Pope has looked at his own data (which is why he’s always talking about minutes continuity). That might mean intentionally going for a slightly lower rated player more often than not. Can fans find patience with that?

And that complex offense requires players with experience in college. He can recruit players who aren’t 5 stars, sit them for two years while they learn an offense and by their junior year they are balling the f*** out

 

[JonathanW]

There is a HUGE problem with the OP doing this 40 year or even 15 year study.
The environment has completely changed over those 40 years, first with the increase of kids leaving school before 4 years to go to the NBA. In 1984, you might only have 3-5 players leaving early, and most of those were JRs; but 10 years later that number was probably more like a dozen, and included a few FR & Sophs; then you started seeing the top 1-4 FR skipping college completely and going straight to the NBA; then the NBA put their age requirement in place, so the top FR once again went to college starting OAD. Now you have the combination of NIL and the Transfer Portal. So I think you really only can look at the last 4 years. But even there you have the problem of 5th year players due to COVID clause. And you have a very small sample size.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

There is a HUGE problem with the OP doing this 40 year or even 15 year study.
The environment has completely changed over those 40 years, first with the increase of kids leaving school before 4 years to go to the NBA. In 1984, you might only have 3-5 players leaving early, and most of those were JRs; but 10 years later that number was probably more like a dozen, and included a few FR & Sophs; then you started seeing the top 1-4 FR skipping college completely and going straight to the NBA; then the NBA put their age requirement in place, so the top FR once again went to college starting OAD. Now you have the combination of NIL and the Transfer Portal. So I think you really only can look at the last 4 years. But even there you have the problem of 5th year players due to COVID clause. And you have a very small sample size.

It only became a 40 year study, really. Started out as simply a 5 year study——still the same conclusions.
Go back to the original post and look at just the last five years.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

It only became a 40 year study, really. Started out as simply a 5 year study——still the same conclusions.
Go back to the original post and look at just the last five years.

Thanks for your efforts. Appreciated.