Made it back home after a pretty busy weekend and wanted to post a few thoughts.
Auburn fans were the quiet MVP's on Sunday.
Kentucky fans are always going to show up. I'm honestly a little surprised they didn't have more of a contingent at the Friday game (would guess it was 40% UK, 25% Houston, 35% unaffiliated, the latter portion started to cheer for Houston late). Then on Sunday it was the Big Blue Nation that trickled into the arena early. But Auburn fans probably had 50% of the supporters there among the 17,000 in attendance and frankly they were a louder, more boisterous group than the Kentucky fans who made the trip. That is not a knock on UK. It's pretty impressive that an SEC basketball fan base other than Kentucky's had that kind of showing. Their players really fed off their crowd when they went down 10 in the first half and then when they started to inch away late.
UK did not have a championship-caliber backcourt.
I was on the Immanuel Quickley bandwagon in the Bahamas when he posted his 18-2 assist to turnover ratio. Over the course of the season it became clear that he was not going to break defenses down with the dribble, he didn't get much elevation on his shot when he did get a look, and had some other issues. He came into a niche more later in the year. Hagans obviously had the great stretch in the middle of the season but watching courtside today his confidence level was absolutely shot. After the game he said point blank that he wasn't frustrated out there but I simply don't buy that. I hate feeling like I'm adding insult to injury, but I've never seen a high-level point guard get into the lane and just not know what to do with the ball as with him lately. He picks up his dribble a lot. He will only shoot when he is absolutely wide open and even then it's almost like he's apologizing for it as he's shooting. Defensively I don't know what happened. No clue. It has to be confidence. Tyler Herro is a really, really good player. Not perfectly consistent but really good. It was a Final Four caliber frontcourt and probably a Round of 32 or Sweet 16 caliber backcourt in my mind.
Three-point shooting.
Three times Kentucky has been eliminated in the Calipari era, in part, because of a lack of proficiency from outside the arc: 2010, 2018, 2019. Auburn didn't actually have the huge advantage in three-point scoring that I thought (their guards were just better at creating and breaking a defense down than Kentucky's, by a wide margin), but it is just so hard to not be a team that can really knock down three pointers especially if you are going to be young and not have Zion or Barrett level freshman talents. Calipari has to get some shooters in future classes. It is one of my main questions about next year's team. I'm just not sure who the dead eye shooters are going to be and think it will be a problem again.
The hot takes on Calipari.
You all here know that I have criticized Calipari, that my general take has been the $9 million man deserves to be held to a higher standard because of what he makes, and that unblinking and uncritical loyalty isn't a good thing. So bear that in mind when I say this: He lost an Elite Eight game to an Auburn team that has been the hottest team in college basketball. They destroyed the No. 1 seed by 20 points. Through four games of the tournament they have basically been 1997 Arizona. I don't consider this a choke by Kentucky at all. I think we can question certain things Kentucky did or didn't do, but Kentucky really didn't play poorly today relative to how they played this season. I think it's simply fair to say this Kentucky team was not a "great" team. A very good team, yes. But this team was not so dominate or so great that losing in the Elite Eight to a peaking Auburn team - playing at the level Rothstein and others expected them to preseason - couldn't lose this game. Calipari has overachieved in tournament wins more than any coach during this era, based on seed, and while that requires a lot more digging and explanation it is simply wrong to say he has underachieved on the whole based on how his teams did in the regular season.
Reid Travis' legacy.
This guy had a huge impact for Kentucky this year. Did not put up the numbers he did at Stanford but he was Kentucky's most consistent contributor over the whole season (obviously PJ was from January on) and in terms of impact on offense and defense he was stellar. Probably not quite the offensive contributions I expected, though he sacrificed numbers willingly. But I was really surprised at how much better he made Kentucky defensively. A truly great ambassador for Kentucky basketball and warmed Calipari to the grad transfer experiment. I think he spoiled UK fans and Calipari on the grad transfer thing, too. I suspect most others won't be as good. Without Travis this team doesn't accomplish much of anything this season.
PJ Washington's legacy.
I said early in the season that we should reassess Washington as a great role player as opposed to a great player. How stupid that turned out to be. PJ Washington turned into a truly great college basketball player. At one point I thought he could have been that if he stayed until his senior year, like many players before the OAD era. I am genuinely shocked at how quickly he went from total inconsistency last year and early this year to being one of the best players in the country. Tough as nails, ready to take the big shots late, strong with the ball, passing out of double teams, making huge blocks, team leader ... a great development success story for Calipari and potentially a roadmap for what a "return" year could look like for other guys.
EJ Montgomery is the key to next year's team.
I think he is the difference in Kentucky being pretty good and maybe struggling some in the regular season (with a PG situation that will take time to develop, a lack of frontcourt depth and a lack of shooting but athleticism in spades) and a very good season. He has this Antawn Jamison like quality of getting off the floor so quickly, he covers so much ground and is so rangy. Once he bulks up and gets stronger he can become an All-American. I really believe that. Next season. Maybe he won't, but I think he can and if he does it will make all the difference for the Cats. Having said that, I don't quite understand Calipari's substitution patterns. Seems like he gave Montgomery chances in the 1H of games and then pulled the rug out from under him after halftime. He got so tight with his bench in games.
K's recruiting dominance of Calipari has hurt Kentucky but it hasn't helped Duke.
Calipari is better than K with the most elite freshmen. This much is beyond dispute if you look at Cal's record with those players and then K's record since he started taking over. However, it is also clear that K taking those players from Calipari has hurt Kentucky. Several people have said the last four years haven't been "special" like the first several in Cal's era were and that's totally fair.
How should we view the last four years?
I basically look at the 2016-2019 seasons like the Tubby era. Not the very end when it got awful, but right in the Sweet 16-Elite Eight level on average. Strong to really good regular seasons but more "in the conversation" and probably needing a little help to win the title as opposed to being the most leading contender. Will that change? It could. I don't think it goes back to the way it was very early in Calipari's era unless something gets shaken up, like he reasserts recruiting dominance over K or the OAD going away changes the dynamic in a way we can't see. That doesn't mean I don't see Calipari winning another title at UK. If he stays 5 more years I would still count on him winning another. But the key as David has said is finding a way to get your team old and while grad transfers will help this is still going to be a program dominated by young guys, it's a program that has been prone to missing an extra shooter or two that would really help, the elite point guard play (at the level of Wall, Knight and even Fox) hasn't been there the last couple of years and we'll see about next year, etc. I think Kentucky really needs to dramatically improve the shooters in the program and catch up with the rest of the country on the three ball especially if they are going to be so young. You can't be young, shoot poorly and not have the most elite talent.
So was this season a disappointment?
I don't think so. I don't think the Elite Eight is almost ever a disappointment. Once you get there, you've pretty much reserved the right to say you didn't choke. Everyone there is playing good basketball. Maybe some exceptions. UK-Wisconsin outcome was a disappointment for the Cats. UK-WVU was brutal. But you can usually at least understand an Elite Eight loss. What I will say is what I said on social media earlier today.
Preseason I thought this was a Final Four team.
In February, I thought it was a Final Four team.
This morning I thought it was a Final Four team.
They didn't get there. It's hard for me to separate the image of what I thought this team would be from my analysis of how the year played out, because they really did look like a juggernaut at points in February, like they were getting there. But I think it was a pretty good year once you adjust for what we saw over 30+ games. It was a two seed, i.e., Elite Eight was exactly the reasonable expectation and that's what happened. They were not clearly the best team in the country. They were one of the top 7-8 teams and that's where they finished.
Auburn fans were the quiet MVP's on Sunday.
Kentucky fans are always going to show up. I'm honestly a little surprised they didn't have more of a contingent at the Friday game (would guess it was 40% UK, 25% Houston, 35% unaffiliated, the latter portion started to cheer for Houston late). Then on Sunday it was the Big Blue Nation that trickled into the arena early. But Auburn fans probably had 50% of the supporters there among the 17,000 in attendance and frankly they were a louder, more boisterous group than the Kentucky fans who made the trip. That is not a knock on UK. It's pretty impressive that an SEC basketball fan base other than Kentucky's had that kind of showing. Their players really fed off their crowd when they went down 10 in the first half and then when they started to inch away late.
UK did not have a championship-caliber backcourt.
I was on the Immanuel Quickley bandwagon in the Bahamas when he posted his 18-2 assist to turnover ratio. Over the course of the season it became clear that he was not going to break defenses down with the dribble, he didn't get much elevation on his shot when he did get a look, and had some other issues. He came into a niche more later in the year. Hagans obviously had the great stretch in the middle of the season but watching courtside today his confidence level was absolutely shot. After the game he said point blank that he wasn't frustrated out there but I simply don't buy that. I hate feeling like I'm adding insult to injury, but I've never seen a high-level point guard get into the lane and just not know what to do with the ball as with him lately. He picks up his dribble a lot. He will only shoot when he is absolutely wide open and even then it's almost like he's apologizing for it as he's shooting. Defensively I don't know what happened. No clue. It has to be confidence. Tyler Herro is a really, really good player. Not perfectly consistent but really good. It was a Final Four caliber frontcourt and probably a Round of 32 or Sweet 16 caliber backcourt in my mind.
Three-point shooting.
Three times Kentucky has been eliminated in the Calipari era, in part, because of a lack of proficiency from outside the arc: 2010, 2018, 2019. Auburn didn't actually have the huge advantage in three-point scoring that I thought (their guards were just better at creating and breaking a defense down than Kentucky's, by a wide margin), but it is just so hard to not be a team that can really knock down three pointers especially if you are going to be young and not have Zion or Barrett level freshman talents. Calipari has to get some shooters in future classes. It is one of my main questions about next year's team. I'm just not sure who the dead eye shooters are going to be and think it will be a problem again.
The hot takes on Calipari.
You all here know that I have criticized Calipari, that my general take has been the $9 million man deserves to be held to a higher standard because of what he makes, and that unblinking and uncritical loyalty isn't a good thing. So bear that in mind when I say this: He lost an Elite Eight game to an Auburn team that has been the hottest team in college basketball. They destroyed the No. 1 seed by 20 points. Through four games of the tournament they have basically been 1997 Arizona. I don't consider this a choke by Kentucky at all. I think we can question certain things Kentucky did or didn't do, but Kentucky really didn't play poorly today relative to how they played this season. I think it's simply fair to say this Kentucky team was not a "great" team. A very good team, yes. But this team was not so dominate or so great that losing in the Elite Eight to a peaking Auburn team - playing at the level Rothstein and others expected them to preseason - couldn't lose this game. Calipari has overachieved in tournament wins more than any coach during this era, based on seed, and while that requires a lot more digging and explanation it is simply wrong to say he has underachieved on the whole based on how his teams did in the regular season.
Reid Travis' legacy.
This guy had a huge impact for Kentucky this year. Did not put up the numbers he did at Stanford but he was Kentucky's most consistent contributor over the whole season (obviously PJ was from January on) and in terms of impact on offense and defense he was stellar. Probably not quite the offensive contributions I expected, though he sacrificed numbers willingly. But I was really surprised at how much better he made Kentucky defensively. A truly great ambassador for Kentucky basketball and warmed Calipari to the grad transfer experiment. I think he spoiled UK fans and Calipari on the grad transfer thing, too. I suspect most others won't be as good. Without Travis this team doesn't accomplish much of anything this season.
PJ Washington's legacy.
I said early in the season that we should reassess Washington as a great role player as opposed to a great player. How stupid that turned out to be. PJ Washington turned into a truly great college basketball player. At one point I thought he could have been that if he stayed until his senior year, like many players before the OAD era. I am genuinely shocked at how quickly he went from total inconsistency last year and early this year to being one of the best players in the country. Tough as nails, ready to take the big shots late, strong with the ball, passing out of double teams, making huge blocks, team leader ... a great development success story for Calipari and potentially a roadmap for what a "return" year could look like for other guys.
EJ Montgomery is the key to next year's team.
I think he is the difference in Kentucky being pretty good and maybe struggling some in the regular season (with a PG situation that will take time to develop, a lack of frontcourt depth and a lack of shooting but athleticism in spades) and a very good season. He has this Antawn Jamison like quality of getting off the floor so quickly, he covers so much ground and is so rangy. Once he bulks up and gets stronger he can become an All-American. I really believe that. Next season. Maybe he won't, but I think he can and if he does it will make all the difference for the Cats. Having said that, I don't quite understand Calipari's substitution patterns. Seems like he gave Montgomery chances in the 1H of games and then pulled the rug out from under him after halftime. He got so tight with his bench in games.
K's recruiting dominance of Calipari has hurt Kentucky but it hasn't helped Duke.
Calipari is better than K with the most elite freshmen. This much is beyond dispute if you look at Cal's record with those players and then K's record since he started taking over. However, it is also clear that K taking those players from Calipari has hurt Kentucky. Several people have said the last four years haven't been "special" like the first several in Cal's era were and that's totally fair.
How should we view the last four years?
I basically look at the 2016-2019 seasons like the Tubby era. Not the very end when it got awful, but right in the Sweet 16-Elite Eight level on average. Strong to really good regular seasons but more "in the conversation" and probably needing a little help to win the title as opposed to being the most leading contender. Will that change? It could. I don't think it goes back to the way it was very early in Calipari's era unless something gets shaken up, like he reasserts recruiting dominance over K or the OAD going away changes the dynamic in a way we can't see. That doesn't mean I don't see Calipari winning another title at UK. If he stays 5 more years I would still count on him winning another. But the key as David has said is finding a way to get your team old and while grad transfers will help this is still going to be a program dominated by young guys, it's a program that has been prone to missing an extra shooter or two that would really help, the elite point guard play (at the level of Wall, Knight and even Fox) hasn't been there the last couple of years and we'll see about next year, etc. I think Kentucky really needs to dramatically improve the shooters in the program and catch up with the rest of the country on the three ball especially if they are going to be so young. You can't be young, shoot poorly and not have the most elite talent.
So was this season a disappointment?
I don't think so. I don't think the Elite Eight is almost ever a disappointment. Once you get there, you've pretty much reserved the right to say you didn't choke. Everyone there is playing good basketball. Maybe some exceptions. UK-Wisconsin outcome was a disappointment for the Cats. UK-WVU was brutal. But you can usually at least understand an Elite Eight loss. What I will say is what I said on social media earlier today.
Preseason I thought this was a Final Four team.
In February, I thought it was a Final Four team.
This morning I thought it was a Final Four team.
They didn't get there. It's hard for me to separate the image of what I thought this team would be from my analysis of how the year played out, because they really did look like a juggernaut at points in February, like they were getting there. But I think it was a pretty good year once you adjust for what we saw over 30+ games. It was a two seed, i.e., Elite Eight was exactly the reasonable expectation and that's what happened. They were not clearly the best team in the country. They were one of the top 7-8 teams and that's where they finished.
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