NKU gets the rebound after a missed free throw and makes a 2 to tie the game
Wright St. Up 3. Fouls NKU with 3 seconds left.
- Thread starter crawfords corner
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It happens once in hundred times, maybe. Guys hit 3 point shots with much higher frequency.
I don't wear a seatbelt, because I've heard of times when the seatbelt actually killed somebody in a wreck
Pretty much where I am. Always foul in those situations. I've never watched it backfire live like it sounds like it did here.
I had a coworker tell me that years ago. Said she was afraid that if she was in the water and sinking, she might not be able to get her belt off, or if the car caught on fire she could be trapped...
You especially foul with 3 seconds left like they did. Wright State just ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. NKU advances to the Horizon League semi-final
The stats say this isn't true but ok.
Except statistics show that not wearing a seatbelt would be an ignorant thing to do. What do the the stats show for fouling vs not fouling? But I don't blame them for fouling here with only a few seconds left
Agreed, idk how many game tying or winning 3’s I’ve seen over the years but it feels like it’s about 50% when a team is blowing a lead.
"with 3 seconds left"
These are the key words to this thread and to fouling up 3. In the Florida game there were more than 10 seconds left. You don't foul in that situation. You need less than 5.
These are the key words to this thread and to fouling up 3. In the Florida game there were more than 10 seconds left. You don't foul in that situation. You need less than 5.
Xbox or PlayStation has the espn app that you can access ESPN plus.
3 seconds left is a HUGE difference than 8-10 seconds. Statically it's under 6 seconds left up 3 when fouling is the best play. This has been discussed a million times on here.
Under 6 seconds foul, over 6 seconds don't. (Time left on the clock before they shoot) it's simple math that gives you the best percentage chance to win.
Backfires plenty. Statistically there is no difference in success between the two options.
First one that comes to mind that backfired big time was in 2019 Elite 8 between Purdue and Virginia. Purdue is leading 70-67 and intentionally fouls with 5.9 seconds left. Virginia makes the first, then intentionally misses the second. They get the long rebound, and their guy throws one in at the buzzer, forcing OT (which Virginia goes on to win).
Many more instances like that as well, as the percentages bear that out. Some of our fans live in denial if it means taking a shot at Cal...
Yep. People have looked at this countless times and found that to be true. Yet people continue to push that one way or the other is the obvious correct decision.
Plus there's so many things to consider in specific game situations. Some mention time but also just the quality and strengths of the teams. Are you facing UK? A team that's 1st in the nation in 3 point shooters and have a ton of guys that can hit one. Well you probably want to foul. Are you playing a team like Houston of Uconn that grab boards at a crazy rate? Maybe not so much especially with Houston given they don't really shoot it well.
A lot depends on the context.
A lot depends on the context.
As with all the analytics stuff, it's wrong to say something is overall better. Every single situation is different and needs to be accounted for, which currently isn't possible in the analytics heavy landscape that is sports talking heads.
There are situations you should absolutely foul. There are situations you should absolutely not. It all just depends
There are situations you should absolutely foul. There are situations you should absolutely not. It all just depends
That was the luckiest rebound and shot I’ve ever seen for real. That’s when I knew Purdue was legit cursed for a final 4.
Statistically they actually do not. The chances of winning if you don't foul are better than if you do.
Then I'd love to see those stats. I'm not saying you are wrong since you're a good poster but I've watched thousands of games and can't reemember ever once seeing a team pull that off. I remember lots of game winning or tying threes.
If you go back to the post after that game we lost there were people linking the stats and it was basically 50-50 on whether you should foul or not, I think not fouling was slightly favored according to stats. I don’t have the links though. Personally I think under 10 seconds you probably should foul.
When I disagree with that I am definitely not taking a shot at Cal, in specific.
I keep asking somebody to post those statistics but nobody has. You only just posted anecdotal evidence.
I'd really LOVE to see the stats on allowing the 3 point shots with less than five seconds left versus the 3 point shot. Lots of guys saying the stats say no difference but then giving only anecdotal evidence with stats. Of course my evidence is also only anecdotal; I've just never saw it work for UK in my 50+ years of watching every game.
But my memory isn't what it used to be since I'm so old my family photo albums include fish.
Like you and $Z71$ pointed out time is surely a critical factor. So I'd like to see the stats separated by time and just not on who wound up winning the game but on how often the making the 1st shot, intentionally missing the 2nd, getting the rebound, and then scoring two points worked. If, for example there were 12 second to go and the team shooting free throws failed but then got a turnover for the win, that's an entirely different situation than we are talking about here.
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Another reason the fouling strategy isn’t as useful as one would think is that teams really stink at three-pointers when the defense knows they need one and there is a significant time constraint. In the 814 cases studied, teams made 98 out of 608 three-point shots (16.1%) during the possession in question. Basically, assume a player is about half as effective as normal in hitting threes when his team is down three facing a limited clock. He might even be worse since it’s possible these shots were skewed towards more effective shooters.
Another point
Also, teams are better at getting offensive rebounds on free throws when they absolutely need one and therefore no regard for the opponents getting an easy fast break going the other way. Normally, free throw misses result in about a 15-20% offensive rebounding rate. But in 96 cases of a reboundable free throw in the possessions studied, trailing teams got 39 of them for a rebounding percentage of 40.6. (Each of the 39 cases is listed in Appendix C.)
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These stats from over 15,000 college games show a clear advantage for fouling with less than 12 seconds to go and up 3: https://cbbanalytics.com/insights/foul-up-three
I know this is a joke. But one my mom's friends is a state trooper. He's seen many people split from the waist down. Due to seatbelts. Kinda a damned if you damned if you dont type deal.
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