Underseeded / Overseeded (NET/BPI/KenPom Avg.)

[cats#1again]

I’m surprised by this. I think Creighton is a pretender.

Creighton has been awful all year

 

[Eight_Banners]

Overseeded
Underseeded
Rightly Seeded

Day One (NET/BPI/KenPom):
#1 Houston v. #16 TA&MCC:
Houston

#5 West Va. v. #6 Maryland:
Maryland

#4 SDSU v. #12 Charleston:
SDSU

#8 Virginia v. #13 Furman:
#13 Furman

#13 Missouri v. #7 Utah State:
#13 Missouri

#3 Arizona v. #15 Princeton
Princeton

#4 Duke v. #12 Oral Roberts
Duke

#2 Tennessee v. #13 Louisiana
Tennessee

#8 Auburn v. #11 Iowa
Auburn

#5 Texas A&M v. #10 Penn State
Penn State

#2 Texas v. #15 Colgate
Texas

#1 Kansas v. #16 Howard
Kansas

#4 Arkansas v. #9 Illinois
Arkansas

#9 Northwestern v. #9 Boise State
#9 Northwestern

#1 UCLA v. #15 UNC Asheville
#1 UCLA


Observations:
Only 5 overseeded teams played today. Two won (Northwestern and Missouri). Maryland and West Virginia were both underseeded in this model, so the results were not surprising. In fact, that game played out like a #5 v. #6 game; it was back and forth the whole game. Virginia, one of the most overseeded teams in the tournament, not surprisingly. lost to Furman.

The two biggest surprises were Texas A&M losing to Penn State and Missouri beating Utah State. Missouri was one of the most overseeded teams and Utah State very underseeded, and Missouri closed that one out pretty strong, never leaving the outcome in doubt. Texas A&M was underseeded, and I thought Penn State was a pretty weak matchup for them. That's why this whole thing is madness.

Arkansas showed out. Hopefully they can run Kansas over in the next round. Unfortunately, Duke is probably going to romp Tennessee into the Sweet 16.

Let's see what Day Two holds.


Day One by Conference:
Big 12: 2-1
SEC: 5-1
B10: 3-2
Pac12: 1-1
ACC: 1-1
AAC: 1-0 (Houston)
Southern: 1-0 (Furman)
MWC: 1-2 (SDSU, Boise St., UT. St.)
CAA: 0-1 (Charleston)
Sun Belt: 0-1 (Louisiana)
Summit: 0-1 (Oral Roberts)
MEAC: 0-1 (Howard)
Ivy: 1-0 (Princeton)
Big South: 0-1 (UNC Asheville)
Patriot: 0-1 (Colgate)
Southland: 0-1 (TXA&MCC)
Horizon: 0-1 (NKU)

 

[Eight_Banners]

Overseeded
Underseeded
Rightly Seeded

Day Two (NET/BPI/KenPom):
Purdue v. Fairleigh Dickinson
Fairleigh Dickinson

Marquette v. Vermont
Marquette

Baylor v. UCSB
Baylor

Gonzaga v. Grand Canyon
Gonzaga

Kansas State v. Montana State
Kansas State

Xavier v. Kennesaw State
Xavier

UConn v. Iona
UConn

Indiana v. Kent State
Indiana

Miami Fl. v. Drake
Miami Fl.

Saint Mary's v. VCU
Saint Mary's

Creighton v. NC State
Creighton

Iowa St. v. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh

Kentucky v. Providence
Kentucky

TCU v. Arizona State
TCU

Michigan State v. USC
Michigan State

Memphis v. Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic


Observations:
There were four underseeded v. overseeded games (Miami v. Drake; UK v. Providence; Marquette v. Vermont; Michigan State v. USC). I thought Miami would lose to Drake. Other than that, the other under/over games played out like you would think. Mich. St. v. USC was played like a 8/9 game until then end.

Memphis v. FAU was a 5/5 game. Too bad they had to play each other the first round. Xavier, being one of the most overseeded teams, almost fell to Kennesaw State. I didn't see the game, but it sounds like officiating may have played a role in their staying in the tournament. Good thing for Xavier, they have overseeded Pitt next.

I actually thought Iowa St. would beat Pitt, even though Iowa State is an overseeded team as well.

Day Two by Conference:
Big 12: 3-1
SEC: 1-0
B10: 2-1
Pac12: 0-2
Big East: 4-1
ACC: 2-1
WCC: 2-0 (Gonzaga, Saint Mary's)
AAC: 0-1 (Memphis)
MAC: 0-1 (Kent State)
A-Sun: 0-1 (Kennesaw State)
A-10: 0-1 (VCU)
American East: 0-1 (Vermont)
MAAC: 0-1 (Iona)
NEC: 1-0 (Fairleigh Dickinson)
WAC: 0-1 (Grand Canyon)
MVC: 0-1 (Drake)
Conf. USA: 1-0 (Florida Atlantic)
Big Sky: 0-1 (Montana State)
Big West: 0-1 (UCSB)

 

[Eight_Banners]

Round of 32 Matchups:

EAST:
Fairleigh Dickinson (16) v. Florida Atlantic (5)
Duke (4) v. Tennessee (2)
Kentucky (7) v. Kansas State (6)
Michigan State (8) v. Marquette (3)

Midwest:
Houston (1) v. Auburn (8)
Miami (10) v. Indiana (7)
Pittsburgh (13) v. Xavier (6)
Penn State (10) v. Texas (2)

South:
Alabama (1) v. Maryland (6)
San Diego State (4) v. Furman (13)
Creighton (3) v. Baylor (6)
Missouri (13) v. Princeton (15)

West:
Kansas (2) v. Arkansas (4)
Saint Mary's (3) v. UConn (1)
TCU (7) v. Gonzaga (4)
Northwestern (9) v. UCLA (1)

Observations: The West is a gauntlet bracket.

 

[Eight_Banners]

UPDATED with new BPI/KenPom/Sagarin


Round of 32 Rankings without Sagarin:

Houston
Alabama
UCLA
Connecticut
Texas
Kansas
Tennessee
Creighton
Marquette
Saint Mary's
Gonzaga
Duke
Arkansas
Maryland
Florida Atlantic
Xavier
San Diego St.
Baylor
Indiana
Kentucky
Kansas St.
TCU
Auburn
Michigan St.
Northwestern
Penn. St.
Miami Fl.
Missouri
Pittsburgh
Furman
Princeton
Fairleigh Dickinson

Round of 32 with Sagarin:

Houston
Alabama
UCLA
Connecticut
Texas
Kansas
Tennessee
Creighton
Marquette
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's
Duke
Arkansas
Xavier
Baylor
Maryland
Indiana
San Diego St.
Kentucky
Kansas St.
TCU
Florida Atlantic
Auburn
Michigan St.
Penn. St.
Northwestern
Miami Fl.
Missouri
Pittsburgh
Furman
Princeton
Fairleigh Dickinson

 

[Eight_Banners]

Round of 32 results:

EAST:
Fairleigh Dickinson (16) v. Florida Atlantic (5)
Winner: Florida Atlantic (5)

Duke (4) v. Tennessee (2)
Winner: Tennessee (2)

Kentucky (7) v. Kansas State (6)
Winner: Kansas State (6)

Michigan State (8) v. Marquette (3)
Winner: Michigan State (8)

Midwest:
Houston (1) v. Auburn (8)
Winner: Houston (1)

Miami (10) v. Indiana (7)
Winner: Miami (10)

Pittsburgh (13) v. Xavier (6)
Winner: Xavier (6)

Penn State (10) v. Texas (2)
Winner: Texas (2)

South:
Alabama (1) v. Maryland (6)
Winner: Alabama (1)

San Diego State (4) v. Furman (13)
Winner: San Diego State (4)

Creighton (3) v. Baylor (6)
Winner: Creighton (3)

Missouri (13) v. Princeton (15)
Winner: Princeton (15)

West:
Kansas (2) v. Arkansas (4)
Winner: Arkansas (4)

Saint Mary's (3) v. UConn (1)
Winner: UConn (1)

TCU (7) v. Gonzaga (4)
Winner: Gonzaga (4)

Northwestern (9) v. UCLA (1)
Winner: UCLA (1)




Sweet 16 results:

East:
Florida Atlantic (5) v. Tennessee (2)
Winner: Florida Atlantic (5)

Kansas State (6) v. Michigan State (8)
Winner: Kansas State (6)

Midwest:
Houston (1) v. Miami Fl. (10)
Winner: Miami Fl. (10)

Xavier (6) v. Texas (2)
Winner: Texas (2)

South:
Alabama (1) v. San Diego State (4)
Winner: San Diego State (4)

Creighton (3) v. Princeton (15)
Winner: Creighton (3)

West:
Arkansas (4) v. UConn (1)
Winner: UConn (1)

Gonzaga (4) v. UCLA (1)
Winner: Gonzaga (4)




Elite Eight Results:

East:
Florida Atlantic (5) v. Kansas State (6)
Winner: Florida Atlantic (5)

Midwest:
Miami Fl. (10) v. Texas (2)
Winner: Miami Fl. (10)

South:
San Diego State (4) v. Creighton (3)
Winner: San Diego State (4)

West:
UConn (1) v. Gonzaga (4)
Winner: UConn (1)




Final Four Results:

Florida Atlantic (5) v. San Diego State (4)
Winner: San Diego State (4)

UConn (1) v. Miami Fl. (10)
Winner: UConn (1)



Championship Game:

UConn (1) v. San Diego State (4)
Winner: UConn (1)


*Three of the four Final Four teams were under-seeded
*Four of the Elite Eight teams were under-seeded, and only two were over-seeded
*Kansas State only beat over-seeded teams to make it to the Elite Eight
*Miami Fl. had no reason to be in the Final Four, as they weren't trending in the direction of the Final Four prior to the tournament, nor were they under-seeded according to this model
*Kentucky was terrible this year, and is apparently no longer a Blue Blood program, according to men I've never even heard of
*UConn's championships have come against #5-seed San Diego State, #8-seed Kentucky, #8-seed Butler, #3-seed Georgia Tech, and #1-seed Duke. At least they kept Duke from having another championship in 1999.
*Overall, this seemed like a pretty good model for determining which team was truly under-seeded/over-seeded
*Unfortunately, I did not believe the hype and did not pick UConn to win the championship in any of my brackets

 

[bigblueinsanity]

TN was put as dukes probable 2nd rd opponent for a reason. Committee could have easily flipped TN and Tex A&M with where they both finished league play and how they finished the season. Tex A&M would have been too much for the Dukies though, the committee couldn’t have that.

Yep. They thought an undermanned ut team would be cannon fodder. Made it even better.