Top 10 recruits and the draft

[mj2k10]

Some facts.

There have now been 9 recruiting classes in the one and done era, meaning 90 top 10 players. Using the RSCI, of those 90:

67 have been taken in the 1st round. 3 are still in school, meaning 20 have gone 2nd round or undrafted.

Of those 67 1st rounders, 40 went in the top 10.

Cal's individual numbers:

18 players (1/5th of all top 10 players from 06-14 ), 11 top 10 picks, 3 other 1st rounders, 3 2nd round or undrafted, 1 still in school.

The 2nd round or undrafted crew, recruiting class and school.

06- Chase Budinger, Arizona
07- Kyle Singler, Duke
08- Samardo Samuels, UL, Delvon Roe, Mich St
09- Renardo Sidney, Miss St, Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati, Kenny Boynton, Florida, Tiny Gallon, Oklahoma
10- Josh Selby, Kansas, Will Barton, Memphis
11- Quincy Miller, Baylor, James McAdoo, UNC, LeBryan Nash, Ok St, Adonis Thomas, Memphis
12- Isaiah Austin, Baylor,
13- Andrew Harrison, UK, Aaron Harrison, UK, Chris Walker, Florida, Dakari Johnson, UK
14- Cliff Alexander, Kansas.

Prior to this year, Cal was 14 of 14 in terms of having top 10 players become 1st round picks. So the Harrison twins and Dakari count as Cal's biggest recruiting misses (at least in terms of perceived potential vs what turned out to be the reality)- while playing on teams that made consecutive FF appearances. And guys like Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton, Terrence Jones, WCS, Trey Lyles, and Devin Booker aren't part of these equations, because they weren't top 10 RSCI. I also didn't count Patrick Patterson, because he wasn't a Cal recruit.

Players are in good hands with Cal, and they know it. And while there's some truth in the idea that certain guys are NBA bound no matter where they play, no other coach has as much evidence showing that he will get a top recruit where he wants to be.

 

[KA4Prez]

Biggest "misses", or biggest "mistakes" in leaving early?

IMO, Kyle Singler, Delvon Roe, Kenny Boynton and LeBryan Nash were all 4-year players. That usually says they were great HS recruits but didn't project to the NBA. Only Roe of that ground was really a great NBA prospect, but badly hurt his leg at the end of his HS career.

Renardo Sidney, Tiny Gallon, Josh Selby and Cliff Alexander, Quincy Miller and Chris Walker, I'd just call them busts.

The others were all pretty solid college players who just took longer to develop or made mistakes in not declaring earlier (Twins, Dakari, McAdoo).

Lance Stephenson is clearly the exception as he's a very good NBA player, who likely just fell because he had major character issues.

 

[wcc31]

I hate using Top 10 status coming into college as a barometer for their NBA stock.

Dakari and Aaron were always going to be fringe prospects given their position, athleticism and skill sets.

 

[mj2k10]

Biggest "misses", or biggest "mistakes" in leaving early?

IMO, Kyle Singler, Delvon Roe, Kenny Boynton and LeBryan Nash were all 4-year players. That usually says they were great HS recruits but didn't project to the NBA. Only Roe of that ground was really a great NBA prospect, but badly hurt his leg at the end of his HS career.

Renardo Sidney, Tiny Gallon, Josh Selby and Cliff Alexander, Quincy Miller and Chris Walker, I'd just call them busts.

The others were all pretty solid college players who just took longer to develop or made mistakes in not declaring earlier (Twins, Dakari, McAdoo).

Lance Stephenson is clearly the exception as he's a very good NBA player, who likely just fell because he had major character issues.

Interesting how it can go either way for the ones who miss out on the 1st round- they can declare too early, or too late.

You have to wonder if Budinger, Singler, McAdoo, Barton, Nash, Thomas, the Harrison twins, and Dakari would have gone higher had they left earlier. Other guys, it seemed too early.

The reality of the situation is that you're better off (financially, at least) proving what you CAN'T do while collecting an NBA paycheck. The impetus is always on guys to leave ASAP, because the longer you stay, the less the NBA is going to care about potential, and the more they're going to care about flaws.

 

[KA4Prez]

I think a few on that list (McAdoo, Twins, Dakari and Nash) all would've been drafted higher had they gone earlier. Nash's stock dropped so far he had to stay 4 years.

 

[KA4Prez]

also, the ability to draft these foreign guys at age 17 or 18 and stash them overseas for 3-4 years takes away many late 1st/early 2nd round spots from some of your better college players. With the D-League being so competitive, you're better off not wasting a draft pick on a guy you THINK might be a role player. You better already have a need for his skill set before you draft him.

 

[mj2k10]

I hate using Top 10 status coming into college as a barometer for their NBA stock.

Dakari and Aaron were always going to be fringe prospects given their position, athleticism and skill sets.

It's never going to be a direct correlation, but there is a pretty high degree of overlap. 40/90 top 10 picks in the last 9 NBA drafts were top 10 players in HS (and about 12 more 5 star recruits who didn't quite crack the top 10). And while it's true that the Harrisons and Dakari were never as highly-rated in NBA draft projections as their HS ratings might suggest, they were still being projected as 1st round picks, with Andrew a potential lottery pick. I don't know how you can call that "fringe".

 

[wcc31]

It's never going to be a direct correlation, but there is a pretty high degree of overlap. 40/90 top 10 picks in the last 9 NBA drafts were top 10 players in HS. And while it's true that the Harrisons and Dakari were never as highly-rated in NBA draft projections as their HS ratings might suggest, they were still being projected as 1st round picks, with Andrew a potential lottery pick. I don't know how you can call that "fringe".

I never said Andrew. He was projected as a surefire Top 10 pick. I said Aaron and Dakari.

 

[KA4Prez]

It also makes you wonder WHY recruits are ranked where they are? Generally, they are ranked based on upside when they fully develop. Kind of like why Tyler Ulis wasn't ranked higher than low 20's, but that doesn't mean he won't go down as having an all-time great college career. Sometimes, you want that when you're recruiting.

The ones that hurt the most are the guys who SHOULD HAVE stayed, and left, but didn't even get drafted or went really low. Luckily, before this year UK has avoided this. Every year there are guys scattered in the top 40-100, who still go pro after a year or two, and it makes no sense.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Nash is a 6'6 PF with limited range on his jumper. He was going to have a hard time getting drafted, IMHO.

 

[bthaunert]

Good stuff OP. It's always interesting to look at this kind of information. 67 out of 90 going first round is pretty good. Here is other good info. Of the guys who have had the opportunity to play in the NBA, only Sidney, Boynton and Gallon have not played in an NBA game.